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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2021

Co-simulation of transactive energy markets: A framework for market testing and evaluation

The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER)—and the ability to intelligently control these assets—is re-defining the electrical distribution system. As the number of controllable devices rapidly expands, grid operators must determine how to incorporate these assets while delivering reliable, equitable, and affordable electricity. One possible approach is to establish distribution-level electricity markets and allow devices/aggregations of devices to participate in price establishment. While this approach purports some of the same benefits as the highly successful wholesale electricity markets (i.e., open competition, efficient price discovery, reduced communication overhead), this needs to be researched and quantified via an analysis platform that models distribution-level markets at the appropriate fidelity. Specifically, the simultaneous evaluation of market performance, DER performance, DER bidding approaches, and distribution feeder power quality requires modeling that spans multiple technical areas. Co-simulation has emerged as a powerful tool in addressing this type of problem, where outputs depend on a range of underlying areas of expertise and associated models. In this paper we describe a solution, as implemented in the HELICS co-simulation platform, where we include (1) high fidelity house models, (2) intelligent bidding agents, (3) a modular market integration/design, and (4) a distribution feeder model. We then present a case study where we test two different market designs: (1) a pseudo-wholesale double-blind auction, and (2) an asynchronous matching market. In this work, the markets are run under two DER penetration levels and economic results are compared to full retail net energy metering and avoided cost net metering scenarios that bookend current approaches to remuneration of DER participation. We show the potential for transactive markets to provide increased value for most customers relative to net metering (and all customers relative to avoided cost scenarios) while decreasing costs for the utility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

An improved guess for the variational calculation of charge-transfer excitations in large systems

Ab initio quantum-chemical methods that perform well for computing the electronic ground state are not straightforwardly transferable to electronically excited states, particularly in large molecular systems. Wave function theory offers high accuracy, but is often prohibitively expensive. Methods based on time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) are crucially sensitive to the chosen exchange-correlation functional (XCF) parameterization, and system-specific tuning protocols were therefore proposed to address the method's robustness. Methods based on the variational relaxation of the excited-state electron density showcased promising results for the calculation of charge-transfer excitations, but the complex shape of the electronic hypersurface makes convergence to a specific excited state much more difficult than for the ground state when standard variational techniques are applied. We address the latter aspect by providing suitable initial guesses, which we obtain by two separate constrained algorithms. Combined with the squared-gradient minimization algorithm for all-electrons relaxation in a freeze-and-release scheme (FRZ-SGM), we demonstrate that orbital-optimized density functional theory (OO-DFT) calculations can reliably converge to the charge-transfer states of interest even for large molecular systems. We test the FRZ-SGM method on a phenothiazine-anthraquinone CT excitation in a supramolecular Pd(II) coordination cage complex as a function of the cage conformation. This compound has been studied experimentally prior to our work. We compare this freeze-and-release scheme to two XCF reparameterizations, which were recently proposed as low-cost TD-DFT-based alternatives to variational methods. Two dye-semiconductor complexes, which were previously investigated in the context of photovoltaic applications, serve as a second example to investigate the convergence and stability of the FRZ-SGM approach. Our results demonstrate that FRZ-SGM provides reliable convergence for charge-transfer excited states and avoids variational collapse to lower-lying electronic states, whereas time-dependent DFT calculations with an adequate tuning procedure for the range-separation parameter provide a computationally efficient initial estimate of the corresponding energies, with a computational cost comparable to that of configuration-interaction singles (CIS) calculations.

Bogo, Nicola↗
DOE OSTI2022

How effective is the Brink–Axel hypothesis for astrophysical weak rates?

We explore the effectiveness of the Brink–Axel hypothesis (BAH) for the computation of stellar electron capture (EC) and β-decay (BD) rates, namely that the transition strength function depends only upon the transition energy and not upon the details of the initial state. For this purpose, we calculated Gamow–Teller (GT) strength distributions for a selection of sd-shell nuclides, using two different microscopic models, namely the proton–neutron quasiparticle random phase approximation and the full configuration-interaction shell model, taking into account the first 100 states of both the initial and final nuclides. The GT transition strengths among these levels evolve with initial state energy. These transition strength functions we folded into weak-interaction mediated rates in stellar matter, specifically EC and BD rates, for a range of densities 10 g cm –3 ≤ ρ ≤ 10 11 g cm –3 and range of temperatures 1 GK ≤ T ≤ 30 GK. When transitions from excited states were approximated using the BAH, augmented by so-called 'back-resonance' transitions, the rates were affected by up to three orders of magnitude or more at high temperatures and densities. Furthermore the BAH is not a reliable approximation for the calculation of stellar rates, especially in high temperature–density environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Virtual Power Plants and Energy Justice

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) Order 2222, issued in September 2020, removes barriers for distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in wholesale energy markets by allowing DERs to aggregate and participate in wholesale markets as a single entity, known as a virtual power plant (VPP). VPPs can provide balancing, reliability, and resiliency grid services and can participate in capacity, energy and ancillary services markets. They can also increase customer energy access and lower electricity bills. This report focuses on VPP business models, including considerations of energy justice (EJ). Through an analysis of the VPP value chain, business models, programs, and pilots, several VPP applications are identified and grouped by their ability to have quantitatively measurable or monetized benefits. Benefits and barriers specific to underserved communities are outlined, and VPP programs with an intentional focus on underserved communities are compared to those without such a focus.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework: Preprint

As more variable renewable energy sources are added to the grid, the critical role of hydropower as a reliable baseline and firming resource is rapidly growing. However, the U.S hydropower fleet is not fully prepared to face modern issues such as cybersecurity threats. Hydropower accounts for 37% of U.S. utility-scale renewable electricity but is challenged by diverse infrastructure and legacy devices that predate modern security practices. While new cybersecurity solutions cannot simply be added to current hydropower generation and operation technologies, custom cybersecurity assessments can reveal system-specific threats and risk probabilities and identify mitigating enhancements.

cybersecurity valuation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting in the Middle: Pooled Rideshare as Compelling Transportation Offering for Elders

Pooled ridesharing is an innovative new transportation offering with the potential to positively impact traffic and emissions. Through pooling, rideshare can aggregate demand, decreasing the number of vehicles required on the road, but also offering options to those without access to reliable means of transportation. In this study pooled ridesharing is explored in the context of its impacts on seniors. Through analysis of income, location, accessibility, and mode shares, pooled rideshare is demonstrated to offer a compelling middle ground for seniors looking for more affordable transportation than personal vehicles, but who are time sensitive or may not have access to public transportation. An efficient rideshare assignment strategy, which caters to discounts for riders' specific trips, is compared to a more basic heuristic. Results indicate that more riders utilize the service with catered discounts, despite increased wait and travel times over solo rideshare. Additionally, results indicate that although public transportation usage decreases when rideshare service offerings improve, there is not necessarily a direct shift in user base, as even pooled rideshare is still expensive enough to prevent seniors from the lowest household income quartiles from using the service.

Paul, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic correlations between switchgrass performance in sward conditions and surrogate measures

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) breeders use spaced-seedling plots for evaluations of biomass yield, but prior studies are ambiguous about the relationship between performance in spaced plots and commercial seeded sward performance. This study used a split-plot incomplete block design to evaluate 52 half-sib switchgrass families across two years to determine the correlations among four different plot types (including seeded swards) and four individual plant traits. Plots (1.62 m 2 ) that contained 3, 6, and 18 plants had mean yields of 5.92, 8.04, and 11.06 Mg ha –1 , respectively, while seeded-sward plots had a mean of 5.37 Mg ha –1 . In a mixed-model analysis including family-, year-, and plot-type interactions with a spatial-spline correction, the largest proportion of family variance was accounted for by the main family effect (48%), while the plot type-by-family effect was only 17% of family variance. These results indicate that spaced-plant plots are reasonable surrogates for biomass performance in sward conditions. Yield reliability was 0.50 across all plot types with a mean of 0.46 for individual plot types. Surrogates for sward yield varied due to genetic background of the families. Yield of families derived from the Liberty cultivar (n = 32) had genetic correlations with winter survivorship scores (0.66). Diverse lowland ecotype families (n = 20) had genetic correlations with plant height and heading date. This study highlighted a major difference in performance among the plot types, specifically that seeded swards have depressed yield due to high plant density. This should encourage further research for the mechanism behind this difference in performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterize traction–separation relation and interfacial imperfections by data-driven machine learning models

Abstract Interfacial mechanical properties are important in composite materials and their applications, including vehicle structures, soft robotics, and aerospace. Determination of traction–separation (T–S) relations at interfaces in composites can lead to evaluations of structural reliability, mechanical robustness, and failures criteria. Accurate measurements on T–S relations remain challenging, since the interface interaction generally happens at microscale. With the emergence of machine learning (ML), data-driven model becomes an efficient method to predict the interfacial behaviors of composite materials and establish their mechanical models. Here, we combine ML, finite element analysis (FEA), and empirical experiments to develop data-driven models that characterize interfacial mechanical properties precisely. Specifically, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) multi-output regressions and classifier models are harnessed to investigate T–S relations and identify the imperfection locations at interface, respectively. The ML models are trained by macroscale force–displacement curves, which can be obtained from FEA and standard mechanical tests. The results show accurate predictions of T–S relations ( R 2 = 0.988) and identification of imperfection locations with 81% accuracy. Our models are experimentally validated by 3D printed double cantilever beam specimens from different materials. Furthermore, we provide a code package containing trained ML models, allowing other researchers to establish T–S relations for different material interfaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

As more variable renewable energy sources are added to the grid, the role of hydropower as a reliable baseline and firming resource is growing more critical. However, the U.S hydropower fleet is not fully prepared to face modern issues such as cybersecurity threats. Hydropower accounts for 37% of U.S. utility-scale renewable electricity but is challenged by diverse infrastructure and legacy devices that predate modern security practices. While new cybersecurity solutions cannot simply be added to current hydropower generation and operation technologies, custom cybersecurity assessments can reveal system-specific threats and risk probabilities and identify mitigating enhancements.

cybersecurity valuation methodology↗
DOE OSTI2022

EXPERIMENTAL AND MODELLING ANALYSIS OF A LARGE-SCALE TWO-PHASE LOOP THERMOSYPHON

Liquid pumping requires large quantities of electrical energy, including about 7% of the energy of building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. To replace pumped condenser-cooling tower water loops with a passive alternative system, we implemented a commercial-scale two-phase loop thermosyphon (TPLT). The unit consists of a 13 m riser integrated with a commercially available cooling tower and circulation water heater that simulates heat loads up to 25 kW. In addition to providing passive cooling capabilities, the cooling tower unit is also maintenance free, reliable, and can operate in both dry and wet modes. This study characterizes the performance (temperature difference between the evaporator and condenser) and the two-phase flow behavior of the loop under various refrigerant charges. Sight glasses installed throughout the loop are used to identify the operating flow regimes in the riser and downcomer. Over the range of operating conditions, we identified that there is an optimal refrigerant charge range for a specific heat load at which near-isothermal operation can be achieved. We further developed a model to predict the operating flow rate and gravitational height in the downcomer and compared it with the experimental data. The results show that the model agrees with the experimental data, in particular the threshold gravitational head height at which there will be subcooled liquid at the condenser exit, indicating that it can be used as a predictive tool for identifying the optimal loop charge for a given heat load.

Loop thermosyphon, passive two phase↗
DOE OSTI2026

V-HAMSTeR v1.0.0

V-HAMSTeR is a bioinformatics software tool designed to predict the hosts of viruses directly from genomic sequences. It can be used by researchers to predict animal, prokaryotic, plant, protist or fungal viral hosts including viruses that may be fragmented or discovered in environmental metagenomic datasets. Features & Uses: The software employs a novel dual-stream deep learning architecture that dynamically fuses implicit sequence embeddings from a genomic foundation model with 13 explicit, handcrafted biological features (e.g., coding density and strand switch rates). To ensure maximum reliability, V=HAMSTeR deploys a 5-fold deep ensemble calibrated via Joint Temperature Scaling, providing users with statistically rigorous confidence probabilities. It also features an automated sequence chunking and mean-pooling module to seamlessly process variable-length contigs. Advantages Over Similar Technologies: Existing tools (e.g., IPEV, RNAVirHost) typically rely on either basic k-mers or isolated neural networks. V-HAMSTeR's hybrid architecture captures both broad genomic context and specific biological motifs that standalone foundation models often miss. Furthermore, unlike competitor tools that struggle with incomplete data or exhibit extreme overconfidence, V-HAMSTeR is explicitly benchmarked and mathematically calibrated for fragmented assemblies (1kb–10kb). This makes it uniquely robust, accurate, and trustworthy for the messy reality of real-world environmental viromics.

Grigson, Susie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exponential Backoff and Its Security Implications for Safety-Critical OT Protocols over TCP/IP Networks

The convergence of Operational Technology (OT) and Information Technology (IT) networks has become increasingly prevalent with the growth of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) applications. This shift, while enabling enhanced automation, remote monitoring, and data sharing, also introduces new challenges related to communication latency and cybersecurity. Oftentimes, legacy OT protocols were adapted to the TCP/IP stack without an extensive review of the ramifications to their robustness, performance, or safety objectives. To further accommodate the IT/OT convergence, protocol gateways were introduced to facilitate the migration from serial protocols to TCP/IP protocol stacks within modern IT/OT infrastructure. However, they often introduce additional vulnerabilities by exposing traditionally isolated protocols to external threats. This study investigates the security and reliability implications of migrating serial protocols to TCP/IP stacks and the impact of protocol gateways, utilizing two widely used OT protocols: Modbus TCP and DNP3. Our protocol analysis finds a significant safety-critical vulnerability resulting from this migration, and our subsequent tests clearly demonstrate its presence and impact. A multi-tiered testbed, consisting of both physical and emulated components, is used to evaluate protocol performance and the effects of device-specific implementation flaws. Through this analysis of specifications and behaviors during communication interruptions, we identify critical differences in fault handling and the impact on time-sensitive data delivery. The findings highlight how reliance on lower-level IT protocols can undermine OT system resilience, and they inform the development of mitigation strategies to enhance the robustness of industrial communication networks.

DNP3↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing Decommissioning Cost Estimating Relationships and the Decommissioning Estimate Analysis Library Estimating System - 20423

DOE-EM's Consolidated Business Center (EM-CBC) Office of Cost Estimating has developed a system of Decommissioning Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) and Models to improve the reliability and efficiency of its estimates. The development builds on the multi-year process of collecting and organizing historical cost data from DOEEMs decommissioning projects and estimate model development to support project and program-level decommissioning estimates. The latest work has extended these models down to project scope element and component building area levels, allowing the actual costs of work for these estimate components to be assembled into estimates that reflect specific projects. The CERs have been incorporated into two estimator-friendly products - as cost libraries in the MII estimating program and as an MS Excel-based model, and are available for DOE federal staff use. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimated capital costs of fish exclusion technologies for hydropower facilities

Hydropower is a reliable source of renewable energy, and its future expansion is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development (NSD) projects or powering existing non-powered dams. Thresholds for entrainment risk to fish and the requirements for fish exclusion at hydropower facilities often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders, but little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion measures. Cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening were identified using keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 p.m.&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens and represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with NSD projects. Results indicate highly variable costs are associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1–2 in.). These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The working principle of hybrid perovskite gamma-ray photon counter

Gamma-ray spectroscopy that quantifies the gamma-ray energies is a critical technology widely needed in astrophysics, nuclear material detection and medical treatment. The key is to precisely count gamma-ray photons using sensitive detectors. In this paper, we investigate the operational principles of chlorine-doped methylammonium lead tribromide (MAPbBr 3-x Cl x ) perovskite single crystal detectors that can efficiently count gamma-ray photon events with electrical pulses. Specifically, we find the main dark current originates from the thermally activated electron injection from the impurities, and using high work function contacts can block out the dark noise thus allows for efficient pulse collection at higher electrical fields ~500 V/cm. As a result, we observe strong electrical pulses when exposing the detector under radioactive sources emitting gamma-ray photons at various energies. Our results also reveal the fundamental issues that prevent the reliable observation of photo-electric peak. This work suggest pathway towards energy resolved gamma-ray spectroscopy using perovskite crystal detectors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Charge Transport in Solvated Donor–Acceptor Functionalized Peptoids: Molecular Dynamics and Rate Theory

Scalable solar-energy conversion requires photoactive materials that combine the efficiency of natural photosynthetic systems with the stability and processability needed for practical applications. Achieving reliable charge transport in soft, self-assembled organic materials remains challenging, as structural fluctuations and environmental effects strongly influence charge-transfer (CT) rates. Here, we present a broadly applicable computational framework for evaluating CT rates in the condensed phase, combining Fermi’s golden rule rate theory with inputs from all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and first-principles electronic-structure calculations. The approach does not rely on system-specific parametrization and is applicable to a wide range of soft and disordered materials. We demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of the framework on redox-active peptoids functionalized with iron–porphyrin (Fe–P) complexes, a bioinspired platform with programmable donor–acceptor units and tunable three-dimensional organization. The calculated CT rates exhibit strong sensitivity to molecular conformation, with variations spanning several orders of magnitude. This dependence is shown to arise from the pronounced variation in diabatic electronic coupling with the relative orientations and separations of the Fe–P complexes across the conformational ensemble. The framework provides a consistent route for connecting atomistic structure to CT kinetics in the condensed phase and enables analysis of structure–rate relations in organic semiconducting systems.

Charge transfer↗