Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Random variables”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inter-year Variability in EDS Standards

This report provides a deep dive into how the stability of energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) standards yielded insight into the shortfalls of using software to randomly select points for spectral acquisition when using heterogeneous standards. Some procedural recommendations are included which are meant to minimize the impact of anomalous reference standard spectra by detecting them before the standard is implemented into data processing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1978

Variabilities detected by acoustic emission from filament-wound Aramid fiber/epoxy composite pressure vessels

Two hundred and fifty Aramid fiber/epoxy pressure vessels were filament-wound over spherical aluminum mandrels under controlled conditions typical for advanced filament-winding. A random set of 30 vessels was proof-tested to 74% of the expected burst pressure; acoustic emission data were obtained during the proof test. A specially designed fixture was used to permit in situ calibration of the acoustic emission system for each vessel by the fracture of a 4-mm length of pencil lead (0.3 mm in diameter) which was in contact with the vessel. Acoustic emission signatures obtained during testing showed larger than expected variabilities in the mechanical damage done during the proof tests. To date, identification of the cause of these variabilities has not been determined.

Hamstad, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reassessing the MCNP Random Number Generator

Random number generators are integral components to Monte Carlo codes. They provide the pseudorandom number sequence used to actually sample the distributions of interest. As a result, they are one of the most important components to the software. The current recommended MCNP random number generator is a 63-bit linear congruential generator (LCG). This generator is quite fast, but it has some drawbacks. First, it only has a period of 2 63 . Due to the necessarily non-optimal usage of random numbers to ensure parallel reproducibility, this amount is too few to guarantee random number sequences are not reused in all configurations the code runs under. As simulation size increases, users will need to be aware of the limitations of the generator and tune configuration variables to best suit their simulations, or they will need to assume that reuse is not negatively affecting their answers. Neither of these are optimal. Second, small LCGs are fairly weak in bit generation quality, and this can have an unknown impact on the quality of the simulation. This paper is an investigation into whether or not more modern random number generators can supersede the current ones. The goal is to find a generator that is similar or superior in speed to the LCGs, has a state space large enough to make strong guarantees about random number reuse, and passes all modern random number test suites. If such a generator is found, it would eliminate the need for the user to even be aware of the limitations of the random number generator and would simplify the use of the code. This paper will be broken into several parts. Sec. 2 will discuss the evolution of the random number generator within the MCNP code. Sec. 3 will go over what a Monte Carlo code needs from a generator to be reproducible and portable and how the current generator behaves in that light. Sec. 4 goes through how each generator was tested. Finally, Sec. 5 will discuss improvements that could be made to the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Iterative self-organizing SCEne-LEvel sampling (ISOSCELES) for large-scale building extraction

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) provide state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks, including those related to remote-sensing image analysis. Successfully training a CNN to generalize well to unseen data, however, requires training on samples that represent the full distribution of variation of both the target classes and their surrounding contexts. With remote sensing data, acquiring a sufficiently representative training set is a challenge due to both the inherent multi-modal variability of satellite or aerial imagery and the general high cost of labeling data. To address this challenge, we have developed ISOSCELES, an Iterative Self-Organizing SCEne LEvel Sampling method for hierarchical sampling of large image sets. Using affinity propagation, ISOSCELES automates the selection of highly representative training images. Compared to random sampling or using available reference data, the distribution of the training is principally data driven, reducing the chance of oversampling uninformative areas or undersampling informative ones. In comparison to manual sample selection by an analyst, ISOSCELES exploits descriptive features, spectral and/or textural, and eliminates human bias in sample selection. Using a hierarchical sampling approach, ISOSCELES can obtain a training set that reflects both between-scene variability, such as in viewing angle and time of day, and within-scene variability at the level of individual training samples. We verify the method by demonstrating its superiority to stratified random sampling in the challenging task of adapting a pre-trained model to a new image and spatial domain for country-scale building extraction. Using a pair of hand-labeled training sets comprising 1,987 sample image chips, a total of 496,000,000 individually labeled pixels, we show, across three distinct model architectures, an increase in accuracy, as measured by F1-score, of 2.2–4.2%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Correspondence in Evapotranspiration and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Between Different Eddy Covariance Systems Enables Quantification of Landscape Heterogeneity in Dryland Fluxes

Abstract The eddy covariance method is widely used to investigate fluxes of energy, water, and carbon dioxide at landscape scales, providing important information on how ecological systems function. Flux measurements quantify ecosystem responses to environmental perturbations and management strategies, including nature‐based climate‐change mitigation measures. However, due to the high cost of conventional instrumentation, most eddy covariance studies employ a single system, limiting spatial representation to the flux footprint. Insufficient replication may be limiting our understanding of ecosystem behavior. To address this limitation, we deployed eight lower‐cost eddy covariance systems in two clusters around two conventional eddy covariance systems in the Chihuahuan Desert of North America for a period of 2 years. These dryland settings characterized by large temperature variations and relatively low carbon dioxide fluxes represented a challenging setting for eddy covariance. We found very good closure of energy and water balance across all systems (within ±9% of unity). We found very good correspondence between the lower‐cost and conventional systems' fluxes of sensible heat (with concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of ≥0.87), latent energy (evapotranspiration; CCC ≥ 0.89), and useful correspondence in the net ecosystem exchange ((NEE); with CCC ≥ 0.4) at the daily temporal resolution. Relative to the conventional systems, the low‐frequency systems were characterized by a higher level of random error, particularly in the NEE fluxes. Lower‐cost systems can enable wider deployment affording better replication and sampling of spatiotemporal variability at the expense of greater measurement noise that might be limiting for certain applications. Replicated eddy covariance observations may be useful when addressing gaps in the existing monitoring of critical and underrepresented ecosystems and for measuring areas larger than a single flux footprint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Machine Learning and Geospatial-Sentinel-1 SAR Integration for Enhanced Early Warning Systems

This study presents a comprehensive framework for flood susceptibility mapping by integrating geospatial factors with both statistical and machine learning models. Thirteen Flood-related factors, including DEM, slope, TWI, NDVI, etc., are extracted as features of models, and historical flood data derived from Sentinel-1 SAR from 2018 to 2023 are used as the target variables of the models. These datasets are analyzed using a frequency-based statistical model and three machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and CNN, to generate flood susceptibility maps. The performance of each model is evaluated through AUC; and SHAP scores are separately generated for Machine learning (ML) models to explain each feature contribution in the ML model. The generated susceptibility maps are validated by high-flood-risk locations monitored by flood sensors, BLE inundation models, and flood-prone areas suggested by the Local Community Task Force. The results indicate that the XGBoost model outperforms all other models, with an AUC of 0.92 and demonstrates the highest alignment with recommended high-flood-risk locations, while the frequency-based statistical model showed the weakest performance with an AUC of 0.65. SHAP value graphs highlight the elevation, slope, and TWI as the most influential features across all models. The susceptibility maps generated by the machine learning model show strong agreement with the BLE map and high-flood-risk areas identified by the local Community Task Force.

Google Engine↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
NASA NTRS1980

Packet communications in satellites with multiple-beam antennas and signal processing

A communication satellite with a multiple-beam antenna and onboard signal processing is considered for use in a 'message-switched' data relay system. The signal processor may incorporate demodulation, routing, storage, and remodulation of the data. A system user model is established and key functional elements for the signal processing are identified. With the throughput and delay requirements as the controlled variables, the hardware complexity, operational discipline, occupied bandwidth, and overall user end-to-end cost are estimated for (1) random-access packet switching; and (2) reservation-access packet switching. Other aspects of this network (eg, the adaptability to channel switched traffic requirements) are examined. For the given requirements and constraints, the reservation system appears to be the most attractive protocol.

Davies, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Revised radiometric calibration technique for LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper data

Depending on detector number, there are random fluctuations in the background level for spectral band 1 of magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3.5 digital numbers (DN). Similar variability is observed in all the other reflective bands, but with smaller magnitude in the range 0.5 to 2.5 DN. Observations of background reference levels show that line dependent variations in raw TM image data and in the associated calibration data can be measured and corrected within an operational environment by applying simple offset corrections on a line-by-line basis. The radiometric calibration procedure defined by the Canadian Center for Remote Sensing was revised accordingly in order to prevent striping in the output product.

Murphy, J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Interannual variation of seasonal means and subseasonal variability of cloud streets off the east coast of North America 1984-1987

Convection waves are a strong function of the original forcing by convection in the boundary layer. This convection can take the form of random or 2-D spatial structure. When clouds are formed as a result of 2-D boundary layer forcing, they are called cloud streets. Convective waves may be important in the global momentum balance. Global circulation models presently overestimate wind speeds in the middle and upper troposphere, and do not account for convective waves. If the hypothesis that convective waves significantly contribute to momentum transport in the troposphere is correct, then climatology of cloud streets will help understand convective waves' role in the global momentum balance. If the hypothesis is incorrect, then cloud street climatology is still useful because cloud streets show areas where large amounts of sensible and latent heat are transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere. Interannual variation of seasonal means and subseasonal variability of cloud street occurrence off the east coast of North America is examined and compared. The months of Dec., Jan., and Feb. during 1984-85, 1985-86, and 1986-87 are examined along with each season.

Rademacher, Kurt R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Accretion rates of protoplanets. II - Gaussian distributions of planetesimal velocities

In the present growth-rate calculations for a protoplanet that is embedded in a disk of planetesimals with triaxial Gaussian velocity dispersion and uniform surface density, the protoplanet is on a circular orbit. The accretion rate in the two-body approximation is found to be enhanced by a factor of about 3 relative to the case where all planetesimals' eccentricities and inclinations are equal to the rms values of those disk variables having locally Gaussian velocity dispersion. This accretion-rate enhancement should be incorporated by all models that assume a single random velocity for all planetesimals in lieu of a Gaussian distribution.

Greenzweig, Yuval↗
NASA NTRS1992

Local design optimization for composite transport fuselage crown panels

Composite transport fuselage crown panel design and manufacturing plans were optimized to have projected cost and weight savings of 18 and 45 percent, respectively. These savings are close to those quoted as overall NASA Advanced Composite Technology (ACT) program goals. Three local optimization tasks were found to influence the cost and weight of fuselage crown panels. The effects are summarized of each task and the task associated with a design cost model is described in detail. Studies were performed to evaluate the relationship between manufacturing cost and design details. A design tool was developed to aid in these studies. The development of the design tool included combining cost and performance constraints with a random search optimization algorithm. The resulting software was used in a series of optimization studies that evaluated the sensitivity of design variables, guidelines, criteria, and material selection on cost. The effect of blending adjacent design points in a full scale panel subjected to changing load distributions and local variations was shown to be important. Technical issues and directions for future work were identified.

Swanson, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Local design optimization for composite transport fuselage crown panels

Composite transport fuselage crown panel design and manufacturing plans were optimized to have projected cost and weight savings of 18 percent and 45 percent, respectively. These savings are close to those quoted as overall NASA ACT program goals. Three local optimization tasks were found to influence the cost and weight of fuselage crown panels. This paper summarizes the effect of each task and describes in detail the task associated with a design cost model. Studies were performed to evaluate the relationship between manufacturing cost and design details. A design tool was developed to aid in these investigations. The development of the design tool included combining cost and performance constraints with a random search optimization algorithm. The resulting software was used in a series of optimization studies that evaluated the sensitivity of design variables, guidelines, criteria, and material selection on cost. The effect of blending adjacent design points in a full scale panel subjected to changing load distributions and local variations was shown to be important. Technical issues and directions for future work were identified.

Swanson, G. D.↗