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NASA NTRS2014

NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Handbook

This handbook is a companion to NPR 7120.5E, NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements and supports the implementation of the requirements by which NASA formulates and implements space flight programs and projects. Its focus is on what the program or project manager needs to know to accomplish the mission, but it also contains guidance that enhances the understanding of the high-level procedural requirements. (See Appendix C for NPR 7120.5E requirements with rationale.) As such, it starts with the same basic concepts but provides context, rationale, guidance, and a greater depth of detail for the fundamental principles of program and project management. This handbook also explores some of the nuances and implications of applying the procedural requirements, for example, how the Agency Baseline Commitment agreement evolves over time as a program or project moves through its life cycle.

Michael P Blythe↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Flexible Electrostatic Technology for Capture and Handling Project

To NASA unfunded & planned missions: This new capability to sense proximity, flexibly align to, and attractively grip and capture practically any object in space without any pre-designed physical features or added sensors or actuators will enable or enhance many of MSFC's strategic emphasis areas in space transportation, and space systems such as: 1. A Flexible Electrostatic gripper can enable the capture, gripping and releasing of an extraterrestrial sample of different minerals or a sample canister (metallic or composite) without requiring a handle or grapple fixture.(B) 2. Flexible self-aligning in-space capture/soft docking or berthing of ISS resupply vehicles, pressurized modules, or nodes for in-space assembly and shielding, radiator, and solar Array deployment for space habitats (C) 3. The flexible electrostatic gripper when combined with a simple steerable extendible boom can grip, position, and release objects of various shapes and materials with low mass and power without any prior handles or physical accommodations or surface contamination for ISS experiment experiments and in-situ repair.(F)(G) 4. The Dexterous Docking concept previously proposed to allow simple commercial resupply ships to station-keep and capture either ISS or an Exploration vehicle for supply or fluid transfer lacked a self-sensing, compliant, soft capture gripper like FETCH that could retract and attach to a CBM. (I) 5. To enable a soft capture and de-orbit of a piece of orbital debris will require self-aligning gripping and holding an object wherever possible (thermal coverings or shields of various materials, radiators, solar arrays, antenna dishes) with little or no residual power while adding either drag or active low level thrust.(K) 6. With the scalability of the FETCH technology, small satellites can be captured and handled or can incorporate FETCH gripper to dock to and handle other small vehicles and larger objects for de-orbiting or mitigating Orbital debris (L) 7. Many of previous MSFC and NASA proposals or concepts can now be realized or simplified by the development of the this initial and future FETCH grippers including commercial resupply, Exploration vehicle assembly, Satellite servicing, and orbital debris removal since a major part of these missions is to align to and capture some handle. Completed Project (2013 - 2014) Flexible Electrostatic Technology for Capture & Handling Project Center Innovation Fund: MSFC CIF Program | Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) For more information visit techport.nasa.gov Some NASA technology projects are smaller (for example SBIR/STTR, NIAC and Center Innovation Fund), and will have less content than other, larger projects. Newly created projects may not sensors or injection of permanent adhesives. With gripping forces estimated between 0.5 and 2.5 pounds per square inch or 70-300 lb./sq. ft. of surface contact, the FETCH can turn-on and turn-off rapidly and repeatedly to enable sample handling, soft docking, in-space assembly, and precision relocation for accurate anchor adhesion.

Keys, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2015

Nonnegative Matrix Factorization for Efficient Hyperspectral Image Projection

Hyperspectral imaging for remote sensing has prompted development of hyperspectral image projectors that can be used to characterize hyperspectral imaging cameras and techniques in the lab. One such emerging astronomical hyperspectral imaging technique is wide-field double-Fourier interferometry. NASA's current, state-of-the-art, Wide-field Imaging Interferometry Testbed (WIIT) uses a Calibrated Hyperspectral Image Projector (CHIP) to generate test scenes and provide a more complete understanding of wide-field double-Fourier interferometry. Given enough time, the CHIP is capable of projecting scenes with astronomically realistic spatial and spectral complexity. However, this would require a very lengthy data collection process. For accurate but time-efficient projection of complicated hyperspectral images with the CHIP, the field must be decomposed both spectrally and spatially in a way that provides a favorable trade-off between accurately projecting the hyperspectral image and the time required for data collection. We apply nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) to decompose hyperspectral astronomical datacubes into eigenspectra and eigenimages that allow time-efficient projection with the CHIP. Included is a brief analysis of NMF parameters that affect accuracy, including the number of eigenspectra and eigenimages used to approximate the hyperspectral image to be projected. For the chosen field, the normalized mean squared synthesis error is under 0.01 with just 8 eigenspectra. NMF of hyperspectral astronomical fields better utilizes the CHIP's capabilities, providing time-efficient and accurate representations of astronomical scenes to be imaged with the WIIT.

NMF↗
NASA NTRS2014

Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

Stratospheric Transport↗
NASA NTRS2015

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Skylab Student Project: Summary Description

In 1971 the NASA conceived the Skylab student project in an effort to involve the general public in the Skylab program. The primary aim of this project was to stimulate national interest in science and technology. NASA decided to direct the Skylab student project to those young people who have indicated an interest in science and technology and to foster this interest through direct participation in an ongoing program emphasizing as wide a spectrum of science and technology as possible. Skylab, with the opportunity it gives to provide experiments in areas of science and technology provided the ideal opportunity for such participation. In implementing this project, the National Science Teachers Association (NSTA), having an existing, closely associated contact with students, grades 9 through 12, in United States schools, was asked to sponsor, organize, and administer a national competition for high school students. This competition called for individual students (or groups of students) to develop meaningful experiments to be flown on Skylab. To facilitate the organization and administration of this program, the NSTA divided the participating students into their 12 geographical regions with a regional chairmen appointed to receive all proposals for his region. The regional chairmen then appointed a committee of eminent scientists, engineers, and science educators to evaluate each proposal. Some 80,000 applications were requested by teachers and 3409 proposals were submitted. Moreover, because of team proposals, over 4000 students participated and approximately 300 regional winners selected. Each participant received a certification of merit. The 300 winning regional proposals were transmitted to the NSTA headquarters where they were further screened. In March of 1972 twenty-five national winners and 22 special mentions were announced. The 25 winning students were then assigned science advisers at the George C. Marshall Space Flight center (MSFC), the center selected by NASA to be responsible for development of the student project. The Johnson Space Center (JSC) also provided science advisors and valuable support.

Floyd, Henry B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Funding and Strategic Alignment Guidance for Infusing Small Business Innovation Research Technology Into Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate Projects at Glenn Research Center for 2015

This report is intended to help NASA program and project managers incorporate Glenn Research Center Small Business Innovation Research/Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR)/(STTR) technologies into NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) programs and projects. Other Government and commercial project managers can also find this useful. Introduction Incorporating Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)-developed technology into NASA projects is important, especially given the Agency's limited resources for technology development. The SBIR program's original intention was for technologies that had completed Phase II to be ready for integration into NASA programs, however, in many cases there is a gap between Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) 5 and 6 that needs to be closed. After SBIR Phase II projects are completed, the technology is evaluated against various parameters and a TRL rating is assigned. Most programs tend to adopt more mature technologies-at least TRL 6 to reduce the risk to the mission rather than adopt TRLs between 3 and 5 because those technologies are perceived as too risky. The gap between TRLs 5 and 6 is often called the "Valley of Death" (Figure 1), and historically it has been difficult to close because of a lack of funding support from programs. Several papers have already suggested remedies on how to close the gap (Refs. 1 to 4).

infusion; space transportation;life support system↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA's In-Space Manufacturing Project: Materials and Manufacturing Process Development Update

The mission of NASA's In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) project is to identify, design, and implement on-demand, sustainable manufacturing solutions for fabrication, maintenance and repair during exploration missions. ISM has undertaken a phased strategy of incrementally increasing manufacturing capabilities to achieve this goal. The ISM project began with the development of the first 3D printer for the International Space Station. To date, the printer has completed two phases of flight operations. Results from phase I specimens indicated some differences in material properties between ground-processed and ISS-processed specimens, but results of follow-on analyses of these parts and a ground-based study with an equivalent printer strongly indicate that this variability is likely attributable to differences in manufacturing process settings between the ground and flight prints rather than microgravity effects on the fused deposition modeling (FDM) process. Analysis of phase II specimens from the 3D Printing in Zero G tech demo, which shed further light on the sources of material variability, will be presented. The ISM project has also developed a materials characterization plan for the Additive Manufacturing Facility, the follow-on commercial multimaterial 3D printing facility developed for ISS by Made in Space. This work will yield a suite of characteristic property values that can inform use of AMF by space system designers. Other project activities include development of an integrated 3D printer and recycler, known as the Refabricator, by Tethers Unlimited, which will be operational on ISS in 2018. The project also recently issued a broad area announcement for a multimaterial fabrication laboratory, which may include in-space manufacturing capabilities for metals, electronics, and polymeric materials, to be deployed on ISS in the 2022 timeframe.

Prater, Tracie↗
NASA NTRS2018

International Life Sciences Research Announcement 'Pick and Eat' Project Contributions

The International Life Sciences Research Announcement (ILSRA) is a grant which focuses on 'Pick and Eat' salad-crop productivity, nutritional value, and acceptability to supplement the International Space Station (ISS) food system. My contributions into this project were to 1) manage the Veggie chambers to maintain optimal plant growth and attend to any plant needs, 2) analyze data for the VEG-04 Science Verification Test to create a water delivery schedule for the astronauts aboard the ISS, and 3) assume the role as a VEG-04 Experiment Verification Test (EVT) 'pseudonaut' to confirm that all schedules and flight procedures produce quality results. The VEG-04 EVT will continue up until the last day of my internship. Additionally, I'm currently working on two independent research projects, both of which provide insight to potential plant growth hardware options for lunar or Martian surfaces. One of which is a cable culture hydroponics system (favorable in areas with highly limited space), and the other are two aeroponic systems (a subset of hydroponics which uses no media and misting as its delivery for water and nutrients). All independent projects are still being tested and therefore results are not yet established. Lastly, I have been in charge of maintaining the AeroGarden (Registered Trademark), a hydroponic-aeroponic hybrid system which is currently being investigated as a concept to the potential for minimizing human involvement in the process of growing plants. This has the potential to play a major role in future technological project designs for spaceflight hardware. This system is an ongoing project that will continue once my internship ends.

Moore, Jessica↗
NASA NTRS2019

Implementing Polar Projections with OGC Services for the Enhancement of AIRS NRT Visualization in LANCE

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) NRT product is one important element in the Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE). The LANCE processing of AIRS NRT products and the image generation are performed at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) services are being utilized to access AIRS NRT images. The ongoing AIRS NRT imagery enhancement work includes adding a new set of the images in polar projections. Polar projections are commonly used for mapping Antarctica and Arctic regions. We have implemented more precise south polar (EPSG:3031) projection and north polar (EPSG:3413) projection making our OGC service instances more useful and interoperable. Thus, AIRS NRT data can be easily accessed and integrated with other applications. It greatly increases the impact of our data on researches in polar regions.In this presentation, we will introduce the optimized processing workflow for OGC services from data access with spatial-temporal index to data visualization with different SLD, and demonstrate how to use open source software to provide more precise map images in polar projections.

Zhao, Peisheng↗
NASA NTRS2019

Space Research Project Management Can Benefit from Engineering Technology Selection Methods

Many engineering methods have been developed to help management select technology for a system design or further research. The simplest way to compare technologies is to use a checklist containing all the more or less important selection criteria, so that nothing is overlooked. The criteria usually include cost, safety, reliability and maintainability, and potential problems such as noise generation and microgravity sensitivity. The next step typically is to weight and score all the criteria. The process of weighting and scoring is helpful in bringing out different priorities and reaching a shared point of view. Group technology selection methods are designed to highlight initial disagreements and produce a shared consensus. Often a frank discussion led by management rather than decision analysts can be more effective. The final selection depends on management and engineering judgment and may include programmatic and organizational factors that are beyond the engineering checklist. The objective of engineering technology selection methods is to provide engineering information to assist management in making sound decisions. Project management and technology selection are assumed to use rational engineering analytic methods, but they often do not. The reason is that human insight, intuition, and “gut feel,” rather than logic, more frequently determine our decisions. Project selection and management are strongly influenced by nonrational psychological influences, which can produce unjustified confidence and determination. Nevertheless, there is a strong need for space projects to do rational project analysis and selection. Demonstrating a rational spirit is necessary for a scientific and technical organization. Professional ethics at its best requires an open, honest, and fair process, without damaging politics. Rational analysis can help improve good projects and avoid selecting bad ones. A sanity check using rational analysis guided by a checklist can help avoid egregious and damaging errors.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Spaceport Command and Control System Security Assessor Project

This Summer, I worked as a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Internships and Fellowships (NIF) intern under my mentor, Jill Giles within the Software Engineering Branch. Within this project, I worked alongside the Cyber Security branch to identify a list of Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) software to analyze, research, and gain insight about potential vulnerabilities within the software that could become a threat of attack. After identifying the list of COTS software, my team and I used Microsoft Excel to create a worksheet to easily organize and design a questionnaire about the software. Security reports weregiven to us to identify the software used on the machines in the firing rooms. With these reports, we created a script that would populate the database with the software information to identify potential security weaknesses of COTS software.The goal of the project was to produce a final report, summarizing the most vulnerable launch control system servers and configurations and document vulnerabilities, residual risk, likelihood, and consequence. This project is important for the Cyber Security and Information Technology branches because it will identify security weaknesses and help to mitigate risk. From the Spaceport Command and Control System Security Assessor Project, I learned how to properly identify weaknesses and vulnerabilities within software and how to mitigate the risks within the software. This project also taught me how to create databases using scripts and input files.

Destani Satora Van Arsdalen↗
NASA NTRS2019

Psyche Early Project Verification & Validation Planning Development

The Psyche mission to the asteroid (16) Psyche was selected as the fourteenth mission in the Discovery program in January 2017. The Psyche mission will determine if (16) Psyche is the core of a larger differentiated body. As part of the development of this mission a Verification and Validation (V&V) engineer was assigned early in the project’s design Phase B. This paper will discuss some of the strategies that the Psyche team is using to take full advantage of the early planning for V&V on flight projects and specifically how the Psyche mission is approaching these tasks. This paper will discuss the effects of having a V&V mindset on: 1) The Psyche requirements development process, and how focusing not only on how the team will verify these requirements but also on developing the tools necessary to track and monitor that verification feeds back into the requirement development process. 2) The Psyche testbed development, and how using a verification mindset is useful for identifying holes in the testbed development process, including the required testbed speed and how to think about testbed certification early in the process while encouraging trades and developing relationships with the testbed team. 3) Developing new V&V Tools for Psyche, and how developing tools early in the project development process means that they can influence the development of other requirement and scheduling tools. 4) Verification Activity Planning, which is typically done to a preliminary level during Phase B of the project, and is important for understanding the major testing that is needed to ensure that the system as built represents the design. On Psyche we are not only focused on bringing this planning to a preliminary level, we are also developing a V&V focused schedule to help us de-conflict V&V activities that may require similar resources early on in the program’s development. 5) Validation Planning, for which we are working with the testbed and model development teams to ensure that their models can be effectively validated and that the plans to do so are in place. In this paper we will describe how the Psyche mission is approaching each of these V&V areas and identify lessons that can be taken by other space missions trying to decide how much effort should be put into V&V early in the project lifecycle.

Solish, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2022

Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi-Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change

Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models. Note: Zip folder contains all videos listed in the supplemental document and can be downloaded for viewing.

D. Felikson↗
NASA NTRS2023

The optimization of model ensemble composition and size can enhance the robustness of crop yield projections

Linked climate and crop simulation models are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, it is unclear how ensemble configurations (model composition and size) influence crop yield projections and uncertainty. Here, we investigate the influences of ensemble configurations on crop yield projections and modeling uncertainty from Global Gridded Crop Models and Global Climate Models under future climate change. We performed a cluster analysis to identify distinct groups of ensemble members based on their projected outcomes, revealing unique patterns in crop yield projections and corresponding uncertainty levels, particularly for wheat and soybean. Furthermore, our findings suggest that approximately six Global Gridded Crop Models and 10 Global Climate Models are sufficient to capture modeling uncertainty, while a cluster-based selection of 3-4 Global Gridded Crop Models effectively represents the full ensemble. The contribution of individual Global Gridded Crop Models to overall uncertainty varies depending on region and crop type, emphasizing the importance of considering the impact of specific models when selecting models for local-scale applications. Our results emphasize the importance of model composition and ensemble size in identifying the primary sources of uncertainty in crop yield projections, offering valuable guidance for optimizing ensemble configurations in climate-crop modeling studies tailored to specific applications.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗
NASA NTRS2024

NPCC4: New York City Climate Risk Information 2022—Observations and Projections

New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel’s mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the “hot model” problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

NPCC4↗