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At least 757 records · Page 42

Prediction of Long-Term Geochemical Change in Bentonite Based on the Interpretative THMC Model of the FEBEX In Situ Test

Since nuclear energy is crucial in the decarbonization of the energy supply, one hurdle to remove is the handling of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). Disposal of HLW in a deep geological repository has long been deemed a viable permanent option. In the design of a deep geological repository, compacted bentonite is the most commonly proposed buffer material. Predicting the long-term chemical evolution in bentonite, which is important for the safety assessment of a repository, has been challenging because of the complex coupled processes. Models for large-scale tests and predictions based on such models have been some of the best practices for such purposes. An 18-year-long in situ test with two dismantling events provided a unique set of chemical data that allowed for studying chemical changes in bentonite. In this paper, we first developed coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) models to interpret the geochemical data collected in the in situ test and then extended the THMC model to 200 years to make long-term prediction of the geochemical evolution of bentonite. The interpretive coupled THMC model shows that the geochemical profiles were strongly affected by THM processes such as evaporation/condensation, porosity change caused by swelling, permeability change, and the shape of concentration profiles for major cations were largely controlled by transport processes, but concentration levels were regulated by chemical reactions, and the profiles of some species such as pH, bicarbonate, and sulfate were dominated by these reactions. The long-term THMC model showed that heating prolongs the time that bentonite becomes fully saturated in the area close to the heater/canister; however, once the bentonite becomes fully saturated, high concentrations of ions in bentonite near the heater, which was observed in the field test, will disappear; illitization continues for 50 years but will not proceed further.

Zheng, Liange↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

A simple hydride model for cerium ejecta particles

Cerium ejecta particles form after a shock wave impacts a cerium plate with a known roughness or prescribed surface perturbation. When these particles are ejected into hydrogen or deuterium gas the material reacts exothermically and raises the temperature of the particle relative to the gas. A simple model is developed, assuming that the particle remains intact and spherical, to capture the heat and mass transfer that occurs during this process. Model performance is evaluated by comparing with cerium ejecta experiments where the particles are ejected into deuterium gas at initial pressures of 4 and 8 atm. Overall, the model is able to capture the approximately 400 K increase in particle temperature above the surrounding gas temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A simple hydride model for cerium ejecta particles

Cerium ejecta particles form after a shock wave impacts a cerium plate with a known roughness or prescribed surface perturbation. When these particles are ejected into hydrogen or deuterium gas the material reacts exothermically and raises the temperature of the particle relative to the gas. A simple model is developed, assuming that the particle remains intact and spherical, to capture the heat and mass transfer that occurs during this process. Model performance is evaluated by comparing with cerium ejecta experiments where the particles are ejected into deuterium gas at initial pressures of 4 and 8 atm. Overall, the model is able to capture the approximately 400 K increase in particle temperature above the surrounding gas temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Square-root algorithm for evaluating mismodeled process noise

As the application of sequential filters has grown, the need has arisen to evaluate the sensitivity of these filters to mismodeling of the random process. A numerically reliable square-root algorithm is developed for calculating the covariances of estimates from a sequential filter which incorrectly models process noise. Mismodeling is restricted to the correlation time and standard deviation of a random process represented as a first-order Gauss-Markov sequence. Using a computer program which employs this algorithm, a sensitivity analysis was performed for several types of earth-based tracking data from an interplanetary spacecraft.

Thornton, C. L.↗

Carbon fiber design improvements based on economic models

Circular fiber geometries are predominant in commercial carbon fiber material systems, but the use of this fiber shape has numerous limitations. Circular geometries have continuous symmetry, which is helpful for various processing considerations, but also have the largest possible maximum diffusion thickness for a given fiber area. This characteristic means that circular carbon fibers always have the highest material processing cost and lowest production throughput compared to any other fiber shape with the same area and tow count. To quantify material cost and other benefits for non-circular carbon fiber geometries, process models for polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber production are developed in relationship to the carbon fiber shape, size, and tow count. For a given fiber shape, precursor production costs are shown to favor maximizing fiber size while conversion costs are minimized by the smallest fiber size. These competing cost trends result in a numerically optimal fiber size for a given shape and tow count, while both cost components are decreased by increasing tow count. Cost–performance tradeoffs for three lobe fiber geometries are studied by supplementing the cost trends with a numerical failure model to predict compressive strength for discrete shape variants. The shape selection is shown to be more sensitive to variations in cost than compressive strength while suboptimal shape designs can improve manufacturing robustness and achievable fiber volume fractions. Finally, an optimal three lobe carbon fiber is identified that balances the set of considerations while reducing costs and embodied energy and increasing production throughput compared to a commercial carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber↗

Measurements of differential cross-sections in four-lepton events in 13 TeV proton-proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of four-lepton differential and integrated fiducial cross-sections in events with two same-flavour, opposite-charge electron or muon pairs are presented. The data correspond to 139 fb -1 of $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV proton-proton collisions, collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider (2015–2018). The final state has contributions from a number of interesting Standard Model processes that dominate in different four-lepton invariant mass regions, including single Z boson production, Higgs boson production and on-shell ZZ production, with a complex mix of interference terms, and possible contributions from physics beyond the Standard Model. The differential cross-sections include the four-lepton invariant mass inclusively, in slices of other kinematic variables, and in different lepton flavour categories. Also measured are dilepton invariant masses, transverse momenta, and angular correlation variables, in four regions of four-lepton invariant mass, each dominated by different processes. The measurements are corrected for detector effects and are compared with state-of-the-art Standard Model calculations, which are found to be consistent with the data. The Z → 4 ℓ branching fraction is extracted, giving a value of (4.41 ± 0.30) × 10 -6 . Constraints on effective field theory parameters and a model based on a spontaneously broken B – L gauge symmetry are also evaluated. Further reinterpretations can be performed with the provided information.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Analysis of Planar-Cavity Receiver Reactor for Solar Thermochemical Dry-Reforming

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) systems can be leveraged to provide not only heat for power generation, but also for energy storage and thermochemical fuel production. Such solar thermochemical processes have been studied conceptually, from solar thermochemical hydrogen production (STCH) and thermochemical energy storage (TCES), to gasification, reforming, and fuel upgrading by various means. The solar receiver and reactor are critical components in the conversion of solar energy into chemical energy in the form of 'solar fuels'. For effective conversion of solar energy within a coupled solar receiver-reactor, extremely high temperatures are required, thereby demanding a high solar concentration ratio (CR) for efficient operation. This creates a design challenge for the receiver-reactor, as many thermochemical processes involve gas or gas-solid systems that are limited by low heat transfer coefficients. A unique receiver design is proposed that has the potential to incorporate various high-temperature thermochemical processes such as TCES-assisted power generation, methane reforming, or STCH processes. Modeling this receiver and its potential applications requires a full three-dimensional model that accurately captures the interconnected effects of receiver geometry, spatial solar irradiance, complex radiation, reaction kinetics, fluid dynamics, and heat transfer. In this paper we analyze a CST system integrated with this unique planar-cavity receiver-reactor design using the developed model. The model presented in this paper showed where improved thermal management was needed to achieve suitable receiver performance when a dry-methane reforming process is implemented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. We generated this data package in support of the manuscript and research reproducibility. The background of this study is that the streambed itself has not been explicitly represented in watershed models, although the streambed characteristics are significantly different from those of its surrounding soil. We aim to answer the following questions: 1) How do streambed properties including hydraulic conductivity, thickness and resolution impact the groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes across the streambed? 2) Is an explicit representation of streambed important in watershed modeling?; 3) Is a high-resolution streambed needed for watershed simulations?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated data acquisition technology development:Automated modeling and control development

This report documents the completion of, and improvements made to, the software developed for automated data acquisition and automated modeling and control development on the Texas Micro rackmounted PC's. This research was initiated because a need was identified by the Metal Processing Branch of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for a mobile data acquisition and data analysis system, customized for welding measurement and calibration. Several hardware configurations were evaluated and a PC based system was chosen. The Welding Measurement System (WMS), is a dedicated instrument strickly for use of data acquisition and data analysis. In addition to the data acquisition functions described in this thesis, WMS also supports many functions associated with process control. The hardware and software requirements for an automated acquisition system for welding process parameters, welding equipment checkout, and welding process modeling were determined in 1992. From these recommendations, NASA purchased the necessary hardware and software. The new welding acquisition system is designed to collect welding parameter data and perform analysis to determine the voltage versus current arc-length relationship for VPPA welding. Once the results of this analysis are obtained, they can then be used to develop a RAIL function to control welding startup and shutdown without torch crashing.

Romine, Peter L.↗

Verification of Orthogrid Finite Element Modeling Techniques

The stress analysis of orthogrid structures, specifically with I-beam sections, is regularly performed using finite elements. Various modeling techniques are often used to simplify the modeling process but still adequately capture the actual hardware behavior. The accuracy of such 'Oshort cutso' is sometimes in question. This report compares three modeling techniques to actual test results from a loaded orthogrid panel. The finite element models include a beam, shell, and mixed beam and shell element model. Results show that the shell element model performs the best, but that the simpler beam and beam and shell element models provide reasonable to conservative results for a stress analysis. When deflection and stiffness is critical, it is important to capture the effect of the orthogrid nodes in the model.

Steeve, B. E.↗

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗

SAF: a promising approach to meet growing jet fuel demand

SAF provides a promising approach to aid the rising jet fuel demand from increased travel around the world and reduce the lifecycle emissions from the aviation sector. Although the feasibility of SAF pathways has been demonstrated through economic and environmental metrics quantification, the models used to quantify these variables have a high degree of variability in terms of accuracy and thereby reliability. To understand how to adopt and commercialize SAF, we need to harmonize these process models and assess metrics and technical limitations related to their production technologies. We find the production cost of SAF using hydro processed fatty acids and esters (HEFA), Fischer-Tropsch (FT), and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) to be $\$$3-$\$$6/gallon gasoline equivalent (gge) and life cycle emissions to be lower than Jet A, except for ATJ using corn grain (≤25%). HEFA utilizing oil feedstocks has the lowest production cost (~$\$$2.9/gge) and highest jet yield (>150 gge/dry ton), while FT has the largest emission reduction (94%) compared to fossil jet. A unique contribution of this study is a comparative analysis of metrics related to SAF processes across technical, economic, and sustainability aspects. A cross-comparison of these metrics shows HEFA using fats, oils, and grease have the most favorable ratings, while HEFA using algae and ATJ using corn stover have more neutral and unfavorable ratings, respectively. These ratings can be improved by implementing the right combination of practical and technological advancements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Modeling of lunar basalt petrogenesis - Sr isotope evidence from Apollo 14 high-alumina basalts

This paper reexamines the Sr isotope data available for the Apollo 14 high-alumina basalts in light of the assimilation and fractional crystallization (AFC) process model proposed by Neal et al. (1987, 1988, 1989). Positive linear correlations of Sr-87/Sr-86 with Rb-87/Rb-86 and the Sr abundance (both leading to KREEP) are used as evidence of such an AFC process in the petrogenesis of Apollo 14 high-alumina basalts. The existing Sr isotope data for Apollo 14 high-alumina basalts suggest that there were three AFC cycles.

Neal, C. R.↗

A model for simulation and processing of radar images

A model for recording, processing, presentation, and analysis of radar images in digital form is presented. The observed image is represented as having two random components, one which models the variation due to the coherent addition of electromagnetic energy scattered from different objects in the illuminated areas. This component is referred to as fading. The other component is a representation of the terrain variation which can be described as the actual signal which the radar is attempting to measure. The combination of these two components provides a description of radar images as being the output of a linear space-variant filter operating on the product of the fading and terrain random processes. In addition, the model is applied to a digital image processing problem using the design and implementation of enhancement scene. Finally, parallel approaches are being employed as possible means of solving other processing problems such as SAR image map-matching, data compression, and pattern recognition.

Stiles, J. A.↗

Modeling of Glycolate Destruction in the Recycle Collection Tank

The Savannah River Site’s DWPF is being upgraded with the introduction of the NG flowsheet. Glycolic acid has been shown to be a superior alternative to formic acid for sludge processing. The new flowsheet improves or maintains necessary parameters such as 1) reduction of mercury, 2) adjustment of feed rheology, 3) pH stability, and 4) adjustment of melter oxidation/reduction potential. Further, the use of glycolic acid virtually eliminates the potential for catalytic hydrogen generation in DWPF processing DWPF process condensates are collected and returned to the Savannah River Site (SRS) CSTF. The RCT collects off-gas condensate during chemical processing, vitrification, and other unit operations performed in DWPF and is the singular return vessel delivering recycle effluent back to CSTF. Each batch of recycle will have a small amount of glycolate from chemical processing and melter off-gas condensates. To avoid potential flammability issues due to thermolysis of glycolate in the CSTF, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) provided to Savannah River Remediation (SRR) at their request a Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP) to quantify and mitigate glycolate returns via DWPF’s recycle stream. The request included testing of a process to oxidize glycolate and other organic species that are responsible for hydrogen generation from thermolysis. Following that work SRR provided a Task Technical Request (TTR) that requested process modeling. In 2021 a TTQAP was issued to cover the modeling work. Modeling draws data from laboratory scale studies using chemical simulants and radioactive waste samples. Chemical kinetic modeling was performed to evaluate the feasibility of using sodium permanganate to destroy glycolate in the RCT. The results from the laboratory studies were summarized in a series of reports. Reference 9 is a report of lab scale processing of actual DWPF Slurry Mix Evaporate Condensate Tank (SMECT) and Offgas Condensate Tank (OGCT) samples in the SRNL Shielded Cells. Tests at caustic conditions demonstrated sodium permanganate was effective in converting glycolate to oxalate, and permanganate (Mn 7+ ) is reduced to manganate (Mn 6+ ) with no significant formation of carbon dioxide or carbonate. Equation (1) was found to best describe the observed reaction of glycolate with permanganate under nominal (60 to 145 mg/L in RCT) glycolate entrainment conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Surface engineering to enhance heat generation and joint strength in dissimilar materials AZ31 and DP590 ultrasonic welding

A multiscale simulation approach was developed and employed to optimize the sheet surface conditions for higher interfacial temperature and joint strength in ultrasonic welding of magnesium alloy AZ31 and dual-phase steel DP590. First, a mesoscale model was used to study the relationship between friction coefficient and surface roughness, which can be modified by various engineering methods. Then a macroscopic process model was employed to study the effects of surface roughness on heat generation, indicating that a temperature increase can be achieved with rougher surfaces on two sides of both DP590 and AZ31 sheets. Samples prepared by sanding and filing, as well as grinding, were first characterized for surface roughness and then welded under ultrasonic vibration. An infrared camera was used to measure temperatures in situ for model validation. Overall, lap shear test results for the welded joint showed that the joint strength can be improved by 10~25% using filing and round grinding methods as a result of the enhanced heat generation and mechanical interlocking on the interface.

42 ENGINEERING↗