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At least 757 records · Page 42

Condensation heat transfer and pressure drop of low-global warming potential refrigerants in smooth aluminum tubes

In this work we report condensation heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop data for R-454B, R-32, and R-454C. These refrigerants are low Global Warming Potential (GWP) replacements for R-410A. We obtained these data in a smooth 7.2 mm outer diameter (5.94 mm inner diameter) aluminum tube. In these experiments, the key variables were condensation temperature (35 °C ≤ T cond ≤ 50 °C) and refrigerant mass flux (151.1 ≤ G ≤ 347.3 kg m –2 s –1 ). In general, for similar nominal operating conditions, we measured the highest heat transfer coefficients for R-32 and the lowest for R-454C. Among the correlations we used to predict the heat transfer data for all three refrigerants, the one developed by Thome et al. (2003) predicted the data with the greatest accuracy. Deviations between experimental data and predictions of this correlation were 21.7% for R-454B (with SBG correction), 22.0% for R-32, and 18.8% for R-454C (with SBG correction). Experimental pressure gradient data were predicted by the Friedel correlation Friedel (1979) with deviations of 13.8% for R-454B, 9.8% for R-32, and 10.2% for R-454C. In this work, we also compare the predictions of the Cavallini et al. correlation Cavallini et al. (2006) for R-454B and R-32 in smooth copper versus smooth aluminum tubes. To improve this correlation’s predictive capability for aluminum tubes, we have proposed some modifications. After incorporating these modifications, the deviations between the correlation’s predictions and our data were 10% for R-454B (with SBG correction), 8.1% for R-32, and 5.2% for R-454C (with SBG correction). Furthermore, these data and findings will assist the HVAC and refrigeration industry to implement low-GWP refrigerants in condensers using smooth aluminum tubes.

Aluminum tube↗

A novel ignition model for low velocity impact of heterogeneous explosives based on interacting hot spots

While numerous studies have focused on the ignition of explosives occurring in high velocity impact and the associated shock-to-detonation transition, there has been growing interest in developing computational models focused on low-velocity impact regimes. A predictive low-velocity impact ignition model will be important for analyzing high explosive safety and potential accident scenarios. This work introduces a novel ignition model based on the concept of thermally interacting hot spots to simulate low velocity impacted heterogeneous explosives where observed ignition times are on the order of milliseconds. The model asserts that relevant hot spots are micron-sized, the typical separation between neighboring hot spots is on the order of a hundred microns, and that neighbors interact thermally through heat conduction across the interstitial region between them. To achieve tractable numerical solutions, hot spots are assumed to form a periodic array as opposed to the highly irregular positioning in an actual explosive. This idealization allows a single two hotspot system to characterize the ignition process. Consequently, the model is referred to as the two hot spot Frank-Kamenetskii ignition model. In the present study, hot spots are modeled as constant heat sources terms, but this can be extended to include grain-scale phenomena like frictional heating of micron-sized growing cracks that are confined under high pressure. Because the micron-sized features are below the scale that can be efficiently resolved at a systems level, an efficient subscale scheme based on the Method of Weighted Residuals (MWR) is used to efficiently solve the equations. In conclusion, we carry out numerical examples and analytic predictions illustrating the accuracy and the functioning of the model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of the numerical discretization scheme in Shock-Driven turbulent mixing simulations

In this work, we evaluate the effects of distinct numerical strategies in simulations of shock-driven turbulent mixing. An air-SF 6 -air gas curtain subjected to Mach 1.2 shock-waves is computed with Implicit Large-Eddy Simulation based on three numerical schemes: directional-split with Harten-Lax-van Leer (HLL) solver; directional-unsplit using HLL-Contact (HLLC) solver; and directional-unsplit with HLLC solver and a Low Mach number Correction (LMC). The results illustrate the importance of the numerical strategy to the accuracy of the predictions. Whereas both split and unsplit schemes result in a similar spatial development of the initial shock-driven instability, only the unsplit schemes can predict the turbulent mixing transition after reshock observed by the laboratory experiments. Such feature increases the mixing rate of the two fluids, this being particularly pronounced when the LMC is active due to i) the reduced flow Mach number, and ii) the larger effective Reynolds number. Since the selected mixing problem is driven by the deposition of vorticity at the fluids’ interface, the resultant flow physics is analyzed by investigating the contribution of distinct inviscid mechanisms to the production of vorticity: baroclinicity, stretching, and dilatation. As expected, it is observed that the production of vorticity is initially dominated by the baroclinicity mechanism. Yet, the relevance of the remainder mechanisms is enhanced after the reshock and may even surpass the baroclinicity term.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Identification and Online Updating of Dynamic Models for Demand Response of an Industrial Air Separation Unit

Demand-response operation of air separation units requires frequent changes in production rate(s), and scheduling calculations must explicitly consider process dynamics to ensure feasibility of the solutions. To this end, scale-bridging models (SBMs) approximate the scheduling-relevant dynamics of a process and its controller in a low-order representation. In contrast to previous works that have employed nonlinear SBMs, this paper proposes linear SBMs, developed using time-series analysis, to facilitate online scheduling computations. Using a year-long industrial dataset, we nd that compact linear SBMs are suitable approximations over typical scheduling horizons, but that their accuracies are unpredictable over time. We introduce a strategy for online updating of the SBMs, based on Kalman ltering schemes for online parameter estimation. The approach greatly improves the accuracy of SBM predictions and will enable the use of linear SBM-based demand-response scheduling in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Thermal-shock experiments for separate-effects validation of UO 2 fuel fracture models

Because of the important role that fracture plays in the behavior of ceramic UO2 fuel in a nuclear reactor environment, fracture models are a major component of fuel performance codes. As with any aspect of fuel performance, it is crucial to validate these fracture models against experimental data; however, obtaining well-controlled data for conditions representative of a reactor environment is difficult. Quenching is proposed here as a relatively simple approach for using a laboratory environment to achieve conditions that approximate those of a reactor environment. In this paper, an experimental apparatus containing a single instrumented fuel pellet in a sealed section of copper tubing is developed. It is then applied to a series of seven experiments in which the apparatus is first heated to a high temperature (580-680°C) by immersion in a molten salt bath, then quenched in a cold bath (-10-4 °C). Development of these experiments was guided by numerical simulations, and post-test simulations were performed to aid in understanding the experimental behavior and assessing the accuracy of the predictions of fracture initiation and propagation. In addition, similar experiments were performed on solid copper rods to provide temperature-dependent heat transfer coefficients for use in simulations of these experiments. Here, this study demonstrates that quenching is a viable approach for generating thermal gradients representative of those in prototypical light-water reactor conditions at powers of about 5–10 kW/m. Fracture is expected to begin at these power levels, and moderate amounts of radial and axial cracking was observed in these quenching tests.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Innovative approaches to neutron beam optimization: A case study of FP14 at LANSCE

This paper describes an experimental method to acquire high resolution energy- and spatially- resolved neutron beam spots using the time-gated neutron imaging system with Teledyne Pi-MAX4 camera. These experimental data offer a unique opportunity for benchmarking beam spot simulations. High-quality simulations depend significantly on a high-fidelity geometry model, which can be challenging for legacy facilities. We informed our MCNPX geometry model by latest metrology survey employing Leica laser tracker ATS600. It gave us a high fidelity description of our facility geometry. Such a robust integration of novel tools and methods yields a previously unattainable level of accuracy in both predicting and capturing neutron beam spots, marking a notable advancement over traditional methods reliant on static image plates. Here, to demonstrate the practical application of these tools, we are showing a non-uniform beam spot challenge at our Flight Path 14 (FP14) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). Our precise MCNPX prediction of beam spot shifting as function of neutron energy was confirmed by experimental beam spot measured with extremely high level of detail. Results of this research demonstrate a significant leap in neutron beam optimization at LANSCE and set a new benchmark in beam spot characterization. The advanced methods presented here have potential for adoption at similar research facilities worldwide, aiming at substantial improvement in neutron beam delivery for experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Design-time performance modeling of compositional parallel programs

Performance models are powerful instruments for understanding the performance of parallel systems and uncovering their bottlenecks. Already during system design, performance models can help ponder alternative development options. However, creating a performance model – whether theoretically or empirically – for an entire application that does not exist yet is challenging. In this paper, we propose to generate performance models of full programs from performance models of their components using formal composition operators derived from parallel design patterns. As long as the design of the overall system follows such a pattern, its performance model can be predicted with reasonable accuracy without an actual implementation. In conclusion, we demonstrate our approach with design patterns of varying complexity, including pipeline, task pool, and eventually MapReduce, which is representative of a broad class of data-analytics applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Utilizing metal cation reactions with carbonyl sulfide to remove isobaric interferences in tandem inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analyses

Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) was used as a reaction gas to investigate gas phase metal (M + ) ion-molecule reactions using the Agilent 8900 inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometer (ICP-MS/MS) to yield insight on how this gas may be used to remove isobaric interferences in analytical measurements. The experimental work was paired with density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the reaction enthalpy to predict whether M + will react with OCS. A multi-element standard containing 46 elements ranging from 9 to 208 u was analyzed in the presence and absence of OCS. When a reaction was observed, the dominant product was the sulfide (MS + ). Oxide products were also observed for many M + but formation was less efficient with OCS than previously observed with other reaction gases. This is likely due to the weaker OC-S bond that makes MS + formation more favorable. Increasing the flow rate from 0.1 to 0.2 mL/min (corresponding to a change in reaction gas pressure from 0.35 to 0.53 Pa (2.6 to 4.0 mTorr)) generally resulted in greater MS + production, including the secondary product MS 2 + for a few cations. The early lanthanide series ions (La + , Ce + , Pr + and Nd + ) produced greater quantities of MO + at the higher pressure, although MS + products were still the dominant product. The DFT-predicted reaction enthalpies were consistent with the observed sulfide formation, with an accuracy >90%; however, model predictions were less accurate for the minor and higher order products (< 77% for MO + ). Finally, the work presented here continues a systematic study of ion-molecule reactions in ICP-MS/MS to understand and develop new and novel ways to analyze complex mixtures with minimal pre-analysis treatment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗

Multivariate prognosis of battery advanced state of health via transformers

De-risking energy storage investments necessary to meet CO 2 reduction targets requires a deep understanding of the connections between battery health, design, and use. The historical definition of the battery state of health (SOH) as the percentage of current versus initial capacity is inadequate for this purpose, motivating an expanded SOH consisting of an interrelated set of descriptors including capacity, energy, ionic and electronic impedances, open-circuit voltages, and microstructure metrics. In this work, we introduce deep transformer networks for the simultaneous prognosis of 28 battery SOH descriptors using two cycling datasets representing six lithium-ion cathode chemistries, multiple electrolyte/anode compositions, and different charge-discharge scenarios. The accuracy of these predictions for battery life (with an unprecedented mean absolute error of 19 cycles in predicting end of life for a lithium-iron-phosphate fast-charging dataset) illustrates the promise of deep learning toward providing enhanced understanding and control of battery health.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Metabolic engineering of Synechococcus elongatus 7942 for enhanced sucrose biosynthesis

The capability of cyanobacteria to produce sucrose from CO 2 and light has a remarkable societal and biotechnological impact since sucrose can serve as a carbon and energy source for a variety of heterotrophic organisms and can be converted into value-added products. However, most metabolic engineering efforts have focused on understanding local pathway alterations that drive sucrose biosynthesis and secretion in cyanobacteria rather than analyzing the global flux re-routing that occurs following induction of sucrose production by salt stress. Here, we investigated global metabolic flux alterations in a sucrose-secreting (cscB-overexpressing) strain relative to its wild-type Synechococcus elongatus 7942 parental strain. Here we used targeted metabolomics, 13 C metabolic flux analysis (MFA), and genome-scale modeling (GSM) as complementary approaches to elucidate differences in cellular resource allocation by quantifying metabolic profiles of three cyanobacterial cultures - wild-type S. elongatus 7942 without salt stress (WT), wild-type with salt stress (WT/NaCl), and the cscB-overexpressing strain with salt stress (cscB/NaCl) - all under photoautotrophic conditions. We quantified the substantial rewiring of metabolic fluxes in WT/NaCl and cscB/NaCl cultures relative to WT and identified a metabolic bottleneck limiting carbon fixation and sucrose biosynthesis. This bottleneck was subsequently mitigated through heterologous overexpression of glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase in an engineered sucrose-secreting strain. Our study also demonstrates that combining 13 C-MFA and GSM is a useful strategy to both extend the coverage of MFA beyond central metabolism and to improve the accuracy of flux predictions provided by GSM.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Subcritical Coal-Fired Power Plant under Load-Following Conditions

Dynamic models for power plants that capture realistic general process trends and effects of manipulated variables are needed to improve load-following, while minimizing carbon footprint. In this work, a dynamic modeling approach and simulation results for subcritical coal-fired power plant components are presented. These encompass simulation of the dynamics in the fireside, including the effects of fuel, air combustion, and the dynamics of the entire waterside and power generation sections. This model development enables the simulation and analysis of the important short and long-time scale dynamics of components such as heaters, evaporative loop, and power generation units. Furthermore, additional variables in the power generation section are introduced to improve model accuracy, extending the prediction capability of subcritical power plant models and opening new opportunities for research in operator training, optimization, and advanced model-based controller design that are based on these models. The change in process gain for different ramp rates associated with disturbance signals that affect process variables is also explored and a correlation developed. This provides opportunities to study disturbance rejection control implementation and adaptation for scenarios with such variations in ramp rates. The prediction capabilities of selected components are compared to data available in literature, with the obtained root mean squared error ranges that reflect the model performance and quality of predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Static Subspace Approximation for Random Phase Approximation Correlation Energies: Applications to Materials for Catalysis and Electrochemistry

Modeling complex materials using high-fidelity, ab initio methods at low cost is a fundamental goal for quantum chemical software packages. The GW approximation and random phase approximation (RPA) provide a unified description of both electronic structure and total energies using the same physics in a many-body perturbative approach that can be more accurate than generalized-gradient density functional theory (DFT) methods. However, GW/RPA implementations have historically been limited to either specific materials classes or application toward small chemical systems. Here, the static subspace approximation allows for reduced cost full-frequency GW/RPA calculations and has previously been benchmarked thoroughly for GW calculations. Here, we describe our approach to including partial occupations of electronic orbitals in full-frequency GW and RPA calculations for the study of electrocatalysts. We benchmarked RPA total energy calculations using the subspace approximation across a diverse test suite of materials for a variety of computational parameters. The benchmarking quantifies the impact of different extrapolation procedures for representing the static polarizability at infinite screened cutoff, and shows that using screened cutoffs above 20-25 Ryd result in diminishing accuracy returns for predicting RPA total energies. Additionally, for moderately sized electrocatalytic models, 2-3 times fewer computational resources are used to compute RPA total energies by representing the static polarizability with 20-30% of the static subspace basis, with an error of approximately 0.01 eV or better in RPA adsorption energy calculations. Finally, we show that for these electrochemical models RPA can shift DFT adsorption energy shifts by up to 0.5 eV and that GW can frequently shift DFT eigenvalues of surface and adsorbate states by approximately 0.5-1 eV.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

LASSO for CALPHAD Model Selection Enables Data-Efficient Thermodynamic Modeling: An Application in Thermochemical Hydrogen Production Materials

Phenomenological CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models, widely used for multicomponent materials, often contain a considerable number of parameters and require fitting using data from a relatively small number of experimental measurements or theoretical calculations. Sometimes these parameters are introduced for the purpose of improving model fits but without clear physical justification, which leads to overparametrized models with poor generalization performance. Automated approaches for optimal model selection based on the available data therefore become critical. Here, in this work, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based approach is developed for model selection by leveraging the linearity of the CALPHAD model with respect to its parameters to convert the model selection and fitting to a LASSO minimization problem. We demonstrate its utility for thermodynamic modeling of thermochemical hydrogen (TCH) production materials using lanthanum strontium manganite (LSM) as an example. Various TCH-relevant properties, including oxygen stoichiometry as a function of oxygen partial pressure, enthalpy of reduction, and entropy of reduction, are successfully predicted with reasonable accuracy using a minimal set of model parameters. Importantly, the model selection and fitting involve minimal human decision; it can therefore be applied to high-throughput DFT defect calculations and yield efficient workflows for TCH material modeling and optimization.

CALPHAD↗

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gut microbiome partially mediates and coordinates the effects of genetics on anxiety-like behavior in Collaborative Cross mice

Abstract Growing evidence suggests that the gut microbiome (GM) plays a critical role in health and disease. However, the contribution of GM to psychiatric disorders, especially anxiety, remains unclear. We used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model to identify anxiety associated host genetic and GM factors. Anxiety-like behavior of 445 mice across 30 CC strains was measured using the light/dark box assay and documented by video. A custom tracking system was developed to quantify seven anxiety-related phenotypes based on video. Mice were assigned to a low or high anxiety group by consensus clustering using seven anxiety-related phenotypes. Genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) identified 141 genes (264 SNPs) significantly enriched for anxiety and depression related functions. In the same CC cohort, we measured GM composition and identified five families that differ between high and low anxiety mice. Anxiety level was predicted with 79% accuracy and an AUC of 0.81. Mediation analyses revealed that the genetic contribution to anxiety was partially mediated by the GM. Our findings indicate that GM partially mediates and coordinates the effects of genetics on anxiety.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗