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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42

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NASA NTRS1993

The stability of hibonite and other aluminous phases in silicate melts: Implications for the origin of hibonite-bearing inclusions

Phase fields in which hibonite (Hib) and silicate melt coexist with spinel (Sp), CaAl4O7 (CA2), gehlenitic melilite (Mel), anorthite (An), or corundum (Cor) in the system CaO-MgO-Al203-SiO2-TiO2 (CMAST) were determined and activity models developed for Mel and Hib solid solutions. Experimentally determined partition coefficients for Ti between Hib and coexisting melt, D sub t, vary from 0.8 to 2.1 and generally decrease with increasing TiO2 content in the liquid (L). Based on Ti partioning between Hib and melt, bulk inclusion compositions and Hib-saturated liquid use phase diagrams, the Hib in Fluffy Type A inclusions (FTA's) from Allende and at least some of the Hib from Hib-rich inclusions is relict; much of the Hib from Hib-glass spherules probably crystallized from a melt under nonequilibrium conditions. Bulk compositions for all of these Ca-Al-rich inclusions (CAI's) are consistent with an origin as Mel + Hib + Sp + perovskite (Pv) proto-inclusions in which Mel was partially altered. In some cases, the proto-inclusion was partially or completely melted with vaporization occurring over a period of time sufficient to remove any Na introduced by the alteration process but frequently insufficient to dissolve all of the original hibonite. If equilibration temperatures based on Hib-bearing CAI's reflect condensation in a cooling gas of solar composition, then Hib + Cor condensed at approximately 1260 C (referenced to 10 exp -3 atm) and Hib + Sp + Mel at approximately 1215 +/- 10 C. Simple thermochemical models for the substitution of trace elements into the Ca-site of meteoritic Hib suggest that virtually all Eu is divalent in early condensate Hibs but that Eu(2+)/Eu(3+) decreases by a factor of 20 or more during the course of condensation, primarily because the ratio is proportional to the partial pressure of Al, which decreases dramatically as aluminous phases condense. The relative sizes of Eu and Yb anomalies in meteoritic Hibs and CAI's may be influenced by this effect.

Beckett, J. R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-aware photovoltaic generation estimation through fusion of physics with harmonics information using Bayesian neural networks

We develop an aggregate photovoltaic generation estimation methodology that uses diverse inputs and can reason on its current input-dependent predictive uncertainty. Named PVPHEst, for PhotoVoltaic Physics- & Harmonics-driven Estimator, the resulting tool is intelligently weighing and fusing information carried by the output of physics models, harmonics, and line sensors, using Bayesian neural networks and related techniques aimed at solving machine learning problems with intrinsic uncertainty quantification. As each of the three input classes carries heterogeneous information that only sheds light on one facet of the estimation problem but its value can diminish in the face of diverse grid phenomena, PV-PHEst with its estimation and uncertainty reasoning capabilities perform a nontrivial and potentially mission-critical task of value to grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

R&D to Ensure a Scientific Basis for Qualification Tests and Standards (Final Report)

Project return on investment in a photovoltaic (PV) system depends increasingly on maintaining high energy yields, and the system lifetime is a major factor in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Thus, the rate of PV deployment and the success of these assets depends upon reliable long-term power generation. The overarching objective of this program is to improve photovoltaic (PV) module reliability via development of tests and standards. Where reliability problems or risk are discovered, we can design tests to ensure that these liabilities don't affect future generations of products. Customers can use these tests to understand which products are susceptible to certain degradation mechanisms, and manufacturers can use the tests to design unwanted characteristics out of their products. The work under this program identifies PV reliability needs, performs characterization that provides scientific understanding of targeted degradation mechanisms, and translates those data into practical and predictive test protocols and standards. Major accomplishments include: A model for polarization-type potential induced degradation (PID-p) was developed and validated against experimental data. NREL is currently leading a new edition of IEC 62804-1 for PID detection. PID-p can cause large losses in current and voltage for some module designs on cloudy days. Finite element modeling (FEM) and experiment was used to determine when cells crack in a module. It was shown that cells in landscape orientation are much more likely to crack than those on portrait orientation. Shortly thereafter, the first products with portrait-oriented cells were introduced. Studies of how to test for light and elevated temperature degradation (LeTID) culminated with the publication of IEC TS 63342. Software to predict the progression of LeTID was developed, validated, and made publicly available. Field validated tests and international standards for durability of PV module coatings abrasion, backsheets, and encapsulants were developed. Examples are IEC 62788-1-1, IEC 62788-2 ED2, IEC TS 62788-7-2, IEC 62788-7-3 ED1, IEC 63209-2. NREL led the development a high-temperature testing technical specification, and published guidelines that enable installers to determine whether higher-temperature testing is needed, simply based on location and mounting configuration. In a number of our case studies, variations in the bills of materials or workmanship have been associated with variations in reliability. These observations emphasize the importance of quality assurance to reliability. A framework for criticality (i.e. Pareto) analysis was developed and published. The framework helps us and other researchers determine what problems should be addressed for reliability research to have the biggest industry impact. NREL continues to participate actively in international standards development and stakeholder engagement activities, including organizing an annual PV Reliability Workshop. These activities are important for ensuring we address issues that are relevant and timely, and that we convey our results to those who may benefit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Feasibility of Transactive Approach for Voltage Management Using Inverters of a PV Plant

This article evaluates the feasibility of a double-auction-based Transactive Energy System (TES) for engaging the reactive power (Var) capability of inverters in a utility-scale pho¬tovoltaic (PV) plant for voltage management in distribution feed¬ers. In this approach, a PV plant owner (seller) provides Var supply curves in terms of price-quantity pairs consider¬ing the inverters’ P-Q capability, efficiency, opportunity cost for real power curtail¬ment, losses, etc. At the same time, the utility (buyer) proposes Var demand curves in price-quantity pairs exhibiting the marginal price of Var. Then, market clearing points are obtained from the intersection points of supply and demand curves which are then used to create Var dispatch sig-nals from the PV plant. To conduct a fea¬sibility study of this approach, an Australian distribution network with a utility-scale PV plant (capacity 3.275 MWP) is modeled in RSCAD and simu¬lated in real-time on MATLAB, RSCAD-RTDS co-simulation platform using real historical data. Consid¬ering a use case, namely, conservation voltage reduction (CVR), the operational feasibility along with cost-benefit analysis is demonstrated in software-in-the-loop (SIL) and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. Another use case, exploring the benefit from tap-change reduction of step-voltage-regulator, is investigated. These studies explore further use cases, e.g., PV hosting capacity, network reconfiguration, etc., to be incorporated in TES for experiencing substantial economic benefits.

Alam, Mollah Rezaul↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the operational characteristics and economic value of pumped thermal energy storage

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems use an electrically-driven heat pump to store electricity in the form of thermal energy, and subsequently dispatch the stored thermal energy to generate electricity using a thermodynamic heat engine. Optimal day-ahead operational scheduling and annual value of a PTES system based on Joule-Brayton thermodynamic cycles and two-tank molten salt hot thermal storage is evaluated in this work. Production cost models, which simultaneously optimize commitment and dispatch schedules for an entire set of generators to minimize the cost of satisfying electricity demand, are employed to determine system-optimal operation and day-ahead energy value of the PTES system within each of six hypothetical near-future grid scenarios intended to approximately represent the U.S. Western Interconnection or the Texas Interconnection. Sensitivity to grid scenario (including the contribution of variable renewable energy sources), thermal storage capacity, relative heat pump and heat engine capacities, and startup/shutdown cycling costs are evaluated. PTES energy value and heat engine annual capacity factor increase strongly as the contribution of variable renewable resources increases, heat pump capacity increases relative to heat engine capacity, or PTES cycling costs decrease. Grid scenarios in which the contribution of variable renewable energy is dominated by solar photovoltaics (PV) vs. wind produce inherently different PTES operational patterns. Annual PTES energy value within PV-dominated scenarios increased with storage capacity only up to approximately seven hours of full-load discharge capacity, whereas that within wind-dominated scenarios exhibited a continual increase with storage duration up to at least 16 hours.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2000

Analysis of the NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) Test System for Friction-Ignition of Metallic Materials

Friction is a known ignition source for metals in oxygen-enriched atmospheres. The test system developed by the NASA White Sands Test Facility in response to ASTM G-94 has been used successfully to determine the relative ignition from friction of numerous metallic materials and metallic materials pairs. These results have been ranked in terms of a pressure-velocity product (PV) as measured under the prescribed test conditions. A high value of 4.1(exp 8) watts per square meter for Inconel MA 754 is used to imply resistance to friction ignition, whereas a low value of 1.04(exp 8) watts per square meter for stainless steel 304 is taken as indicating material susceptible to friction ignition. No attempt has been made to relate PV values to other material properties. This work reports the analysis of the WSTF friction-ignition test system for producing fundamental properties of metallic materials relating to ignition through friction. Three materials, aluminum, titanium, and nickel were tested in the WSTF frictional ignition instrument system under atmospheres of oxygen or nitrogen. Test conditions were modified to reach a steady state of operation, that is applied, the force was reduced and the rotational speed was reduced. Additional temperature measurements were made on the stator sample. The aluminum immediately galled on contact (reproducible) and the test was stopped. Titanium immediately ignited as a result of non-uniform contact of the stator and rotor. This was reproducible. A portion of the stator sampled burned, but the test continued. Temperature measurements on the stator were used to validate the mathematical model used for estimating the interface (stator/rotor) temperature. These interface temperature measurements and the associate thermal flux into the stator were used to distinguish material-phase transitions, chemical reaction, and mechanical work. The mechanical work was used to analyze surface asperities in the materials and to estimate a coefficient of fiction. The coefficient of fiction was analyzed in terms of material properties that is, hardness, Young's modulus and elasticity/plasticity of the material.

Shoffstall, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measuring Sustainability of PV in Energy Transition: Mass, Energy, and Circularity

Energy transition to a carbon-free energy system is crucial for global decarbonization and underpins circular economy (CE) goals. Photovoltaic (PV) technology is required for energy transition, but manufacturing and circular pathways can be material, energy, and carbon-intensive. Therefore, we need a prioritization of sustainability strategies for PV evolution. In this study, we compare sustainable PV module designs in terms of their entailed mass, energy, circularity, and carbon impacts to achieve Energy Transition. Results will support decision-makers through data-backed scenario and tradeoff analyses offering prioritization of sustainable PV module designs and CE pathways for meeting Energy Transition goals.

carbon↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the impact of tariff-driven behind-the-meter storage operation on distribution grid investments

Increasing growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EV) can strain local distribution networks and require costly upgrades. Distributed battery storage, often deployed alongside PV, can be used to mitigate those costs, depending on how batteries are operated. This study evaluates the potential deferral value of distributed battery storage across a range of tariff structures, focusing on the rate structures most commonly available to residential customers today and related variants. Deferrals are evaluated with a least-cost distribution grid expansion optimization model to identify requirements on line reconductoring, transformer upgrades, and voltage regulator installations under each tariff. Results show that TOU rates and net billing tariffs can yield meaningful deferral value, depending on specific tariff structure features. Under the best performing tariff structure tested, storage produced a median annualized deferral value of $7.18 per kW of storage capacity ( kW S ) across all feeders in the sample, though deferral values were considerably larger for feeders with peak loads that coincide with utility system peak, i.e., timing of TOU peak period. In contrast, under an unrestricted TOU design with no restrictions on grid charging or discharging, the median deferral value was $0/ kW S illustrating the critical importance of tariff structure details.

Rodriguez-Garcia, Luis↗

NASA NTRS1997

Interactive Educational Tool for Turbofan and Afterburning Turbojet Engines

A workstation-based, interactive educational computer program has been developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center to aid in the teaching and understanding of turbine engine design and analysis. This tool has recently been extended to model the performance of two-spool turbofans and afterburning turbojets. The program solves for the flow conditions through the engine by using classical one-dimensional thermodynamic analysis found in various propulsion textbooks. Either an approximately thermally perfect or calorically perfect gas can be used in the thermodynamic analysis. Students can vary the design conditions through a graphical user interface; engine performance is calculated immediately. A variety of graphical formats are used to present results, including numerical results, moving bar charts, and student-generated temperature versus entropy (Ts), pressure versus specific volume (pv), and engine performance plots. The package includes user-controlled printed output, restart capability, online help screens, and a browser that displays teacher-prepared lessons in turbomachinery. The program runs on a variety of workstations or a personal computer using the UNIX operating system and X-based graphics. It is being tested at several universities in the midwestern United States; the source and executables are available free from the author.

Benson, Thomas J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

MultiLoad-GAN: A GAN-Based Synthetic Load Group Generation Method Considering Spatial-Temporal Correlations

This paper presents a deep-learning framework, Multi-load Generative Adversarial Network (MultiLoad-GAN), for generating a group of synthetic load profiles (SLPs) simultaneously. The main contribution of MultiLoad-GAN is the capture of spatial-temporal correlations among a group of loads that are served by the same distribution transformer. This enables the generation of a large amount of correlated SLPs required for microgrid and distribution system studies. Here, the novelty and uniqueness of the MultiLoad-GAN framework are three-fold. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first method for generating a group of load profiles bearing realistic spatial- temporal correlations simultaneously. Second, two complementary realisticness metrics for evaluating generated load profiles are developed: computing statistics based on domain knowledge and comparing high-level features via a deep-learning classifier. Third, to tackle data scarcity, a novel iterative data augmentation mechanism is developed to generate training samples for enhancing the training of both the classifier and the MultiLoad-GAN model. Simulation results show that MultiLoad- GAN can generate more realistic load profiles than existing approaches, especially in group level characteristics. With little finetuning, MultiLoad-GAN can be readily extended to generate a group of load or PV profiles for a feeder or a service area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global normal spectral irradiance in Albuquerque - Data and Resources

The Photovoltaic Systems Evaluation Laboratory (PSEL) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM has measured global normal spectral irradiance nearly continuously from August 2013 to April 2018. During this time other broadband irradiance measurements (global horizontal, direct normal, diffuse horizontal and global normal) and weather variables were also recorded. For this dataset PV Performance Labs (PVPL) has pulled together data from both sources to assemble a full calendar year spectral data set for use in photovoltaic research. It is composed of eight continuous segments of different durations taken from the two-year period September 2013 to August 2015.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field‐representative evaluation of PID‐polarization in TOPCon PV modules by accelerated stress testing

Abstract Potential‐induced degradation‐polarization (PID‐p) can reduce module power, but how to project the extent to which PID‐p may occur in field conditions considering the factors of system voltage, condensed moisture, temperature, and illumination has not been clarified. Using tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules, this work demonstrates a method to test full‐size crystalline silicon PV modules for PID‐p to provide field‐representative results. In initial screening tests with positive or negative 1000 V electrical bias applied at 60°C for 96 h using Al foil electrodes on the glass surfaces, the module type exhibited reversible PID‐p only on the front face when the cell circuit was in negative voltage potential. No PID was detected on the rear after testing in either polarity. We then evaluated the PID‐p sensitivity on the front side under different UV irradiances while maintaining the glass surface wet to estimate real‐world susceptibility to PID‐p. The magnitude of the observed behavior was fit using a previously developed charge transfer and depletion by light model. Whereas power loss with −1000 V applied to the cell circuit at 60°C for 96 h in the dark was about 30%, testing the module front under 0.051 W·m −2 nm −1 at 340 nm UVA irradiation using fluorescent tubes, the mean degradation was only 3%. When the modules were tested in the dark for PID‐p with in situ dark current–voltage (I‐V) characterization, the thermal activation energy for degradation was 0.71 eV; for recovery in the dark, it was 0.58 eV. Whereas recovery from the degraded state at 60°C in the dark without voltage bias was 5% absolute in 38 h, rapid recovery of about 5% absolute was observed with 1000 W·s/m 2 exposure at 25°C using a flash tester.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Strategic Condition Framework for Energy Innovation

Building upon previous work in innovation, technology, and economic fields, we propose a conceptual framework to address the interplay dynamics of public policy and the value chains of clean energy technology innovation systems, by focusing on market structural and strategic conditions in relation to the rate and direction of knowledge diffusion within activity-based value chains. Our framework extends beyond socio-technical transition models by considering such nuances as: 1) the implications of geography, 2) the locus of knowledge types, 3) the dynamics of financial and knowledge flow, and 4) emphasizing the importance of both market structure and institutional conditions. At the firm level, we consider dynamics of interactions between suppliers and customers, innovation activities, the competitive environment, and the firm’s broader strategic relationship to governance activities and structures; we allow for the fact that each of these aspects of a firm’s identity may have a strategically relevant geographic dimension (e.g., service territories, locational concentration of input resources, etc.). We provide a proof-of-concept application of the U.S. utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind sectors, including their interactions with the U.S. power market, which we in present in a web-based information platform (Energy I-SPARK, ei-spark.lbl.gov).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1999

PV-Diesel Hybrid SCADA Experiment Network Design

The essential features of an experimental network for renewable power system satellite based supervisory, control and data acquisition (SCADA) are communication links, controllers, diagnostic equipment and a hybrid power system. Required components for implementing the network consist of two satellite ground stations, to satellite modems, two 486 PCs, two telephone receivers, two telephone modems, two analog telephone lines, one digital telephone line, a hybrid-power system equipped with controller and a satellite spacecraft. In the technology verification experiment (TVE) conducted by Savannah State University and Florida Solar Energy Center, the renewable energy hybrid system is the Apex-1000 Mini-Hybrid which is equipped with NGC3188 for user interface and remote control and the NGC2010 for monitoring and basic control tasks. This power system is connected to a satellite modem via a smart interface, RS232. Commands are sent to the power system control unit through a control PC designed as PC1. PC1 is thus connected to a satellite model through RS232. A second PC, designated PC2, the diagnostic PC is connected to both satellite modems via separate analog telephone lines for checking modems'health. PC2 is also connected to PC1 via a telephone line. Due to the unavailability of a second ground station for the ACTS, one ground station is used to serve both the sending and receiving functions in this experiment. Signal is sent from the control PC to the Hybrid system at a frequency f(sub 1), different from f(sub 2), the signal from the hybrid system to the control PC. f(sub l) and f(sub 2) are sufficiently separated to avoid interference.

Kalu, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced deep neural networks with transfer learning for distribution LMP considering load and PV uncertainties

As the flexibility of generation and demand increases in distribution systems, the residential loads are emerging as a promising means to participate in demand response and the transactive energy market. Market pricing is an instrumental mechanism for the distribution system operator to exploit the full potential of the flexible resources. The distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) can be used to guide the residential load consumption. This type of market signal helps the distribution system operator to optimize the scheduling of all resources while satisfying related network constraints through a day-ahead market. However, solving the optimization problem for large-scale systems can be computationally expensive. To address the scalability and practicability limitations of the DLMP framework, a learning-based approach is proposed in this paper to complement the day-ahead distribution market framework. Here, the proposed approach combines long short-term memory and transfer learning to develop deep neural network that can capture the spatial–temporal correlation of the input data. The model can determine the optimal DLMP for each node in a distribution system without the system parameters required to formulate the optimization problem. Testing results on IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus systems show that the proposed approach can generate a comparable DLMP against the optimization solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2016

OSSOS. IV. Discovery of a Dwarf Planet Candidate in the 9:2 Resonance with Neptune

We report the discovery and orbit of a new dwarf planet candidate, 2015 RR245, by the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS). The orbit of 2015 RR245 is eccentric (e 0.586), with a semimajor axis near 82 au, yielding a perihelion distance of 34 au. 2015 RR245 has g - r 0.59 +/- 0.11 and absolute magnitude Hr 3.6 +/- 0.1; for an assumed albedo of pV 12, the object has a diameter of approximately 670 km. Based on astrometric measurements from OSSOS and Pan-STARRS1, we find that 2015 RR245 is securely trapped on ten-megayear timescales in the 9:2 mean-motion resonance with Neptune. It is the first trans-Neptunian object (TNO) identied in this resonance. On hundred-megayear timescales, particles in 2015 RR245-like orbits depart and sometimes return to the resonance, indicating that 2015 RR245 likely forms part of the long-lived metastable population of distant TNOs that drift between resonance sticking and actively scattering via gravitational encounters with Neptune. The discovery of a 9:2 TNO stresses the role of resonances in the long-term evolution of objects in the scattering disk and reinforces the view that distant resonances are heavily populated in the current solar system. This object further motivates detailed modeling of the transient sticking population.

Bannister, Michele T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗