Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Synthesis of GEMS from Shock-accelerated Crystalline Dust in Superbubbles: Model and Predictions

GEMS (Glass Embedded with Metals and Sulfides) are highly enigmatic yet common components of anhydrous IDPs. We have recently proposed a model of GEMS formation from shock-accelerated crystalline dust in superbubbles[1] which explains the three most perplexing properties of GEMS: pseudomorphism[2], their chemistry[3], and their size range. In this Abstract, we briefly review the main points of the model, and suggest tests that will either prove or rule out this hypothesis.

Westphal, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Cancer Risk Model for Astronaut Risk Assessment

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

Lisa C Simonsen↗
NASA NTRS2006

Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low-dose-rate dose to the bone marrow (mean = 2.5 Gy) was consistent with the measured ERR (0.62, 95% Cl =-0.2 to 1.9). Conclusions: An extended, biologically based model for leukemia that includes HSC initiation, inactivation, proliferation, and, uniquely for leukemia, long-range HSC migration predicts, %Kith reasonable accuracy, risks for radiationinduced leukemia associated with exposure to therapeutic doses of radiation.

Shuryak, Igor↗
NASA NTRS1983

Fast pulsars with disks

The observed properties of the pulsar PSR1937+214 are compared with predictions of the disk model. It is assumed that an isolated magnetized rotating neutron star is ringed by a fluid disk with a 0.00001 solar mass, and relative rotations of the star and the disk produce potential differences across the disk. A Faraday disk dynamo is also formed between the disk and the star, and allows the polar cap current to return from the disk to the star through auroral arcing. Preferential regions of the star are recipients of a return current controlled by the surface magnetic field structure, which configures the pulsing emissions. The disk model predicts the average luminosity to be 10 to the 31st erg/sec, and an emission of 3 x 10 to the 30th erg/sec was detected. Only one-millionth of the output of the emissions is in the radio region, and the X and gamma ray emissions are in the normal range for pulsars. It is concluded that PSR1937+214 behaves within the predictions of the disk model and is not a new kind of object.

Michel, F. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A new unsteady mixing model to predict NO(x) production during rapid mixing in a dual-stage combustor

An advanced gas turbine engine to power supersonic transport aircraft is currently under study. In addition to high combustion efficiency requirements, environmental concerns have placed stringent restrictions on the pollutant emissions from these engines. A combustor design with the potential for minimizing pollutants such as NO(x) emissions is undergoing experimental evaluation. A major technical issue in the design of this combustor is how to rapidly mix the hot, fuel-rich primary zone product with the secondary diluent air to obtain a fuel-lean mixture for combustion in the second stage. Numerical predictions using steady-state methods cannot account for the unsteady phenomena in the mixing region. Therefore, to evaluate the effect of unsteady mixing and combustion processes, a novel unsteady mixing model is demonstrated here. This model has been used to study multispecies mixing as well as propane-air and hydrogen-air jet nonpremixed flames, and has been used to predict NO(x) production in the mixing region. Comparison with available experimental data show good agreement, thereby providing validation of the mixing model. With this demonstration, this mixing model is ready to be implemented in conjunction with steady-state prediction methods and provide an improved engineering design analysis tool.

Menon, Suresh↗
NASA NTRS2002

Validation of International Space Station Electrical Performance Model via On-orbit Telemetry

The first U.S. power module on International Space Station (ISS) was activated in December 2000. Comprised of solar arrays, nickel-hydrogen (NiH2) batteries, and a direct current power management and distribution (PMAD) system, the electric power system (EPS) supplies power to housekeeping and user electrical loads. Modeling EPS performance is needed for several reasons, but primarily to assess near-term planned and off-nominal operations and because the EPS configuration changes over the life of the ISS. The System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) computer code is used to assess the ISS EPS performance. This paper describes the process of validating the SPACE EPS model via ISS on-orbit telemetry. To accomplish this goal, telemetry was first used to correct assumptions and component models in SPACE. Then on-orbit data was directly input to SPACE to facilitate comparing model predictions to telemetry. It will be shown that SPACE accurately predicts on-orbit component and system performance. For example, battery state-of-charge was predicted to within 0.6 percentage points over a 0 to 100 percent scale and solar array current was predicted to within a root mean square (RMS) error of 5.1 Amps out of a typical maximum of 220 Amps. First, SPACE model predictions are compared to telemetry for the ISS EPS components: solar arrays, NiH2 batteries, and the PMAD system. Second, SPACE predictions for the overall performance of the ISS EPS are compared to telemetry and again demonstrate model accuracy.

Jannette, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Implicit Formulation of Muscle Dynamics in OpenSim

Astronauts lose bone and muscle mass during spaceflight. Exercise countermeasure is the primary method for counteracting bone and muscle mass loss in space. New spacecraft exercise device concepts are currently being developed for the NASAs new crew exploration vehicle. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) uses computational modeling to help determine if the new exercise devices will be effective as countermeasures. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project is developing the ability to utilize predictive simulation to provide insight into the change in kinematics and kinetics with a change in device and gravitational environment (1-g versus 0-g). For example, in space exercise the subject's body weight is applied in addition to the loads prescribed for musculoskeletal maintenance. How and where these loads are applied obviously directly impacts bone and tissue loads. Additionally, due to space vehicle structural requirements, exercise devices are often placed on vibration isolation systems. This changes the apparent impedance or stiffness of the device as seen by the user. Data collection under these conditions is often impractical and limited. Predictive modeling provides a means to have a virtual subject to test hypotheses. Predictive simulation provides a virtual subject for which we are able to perform studies such as sensitivity to device loading and vibration isolation without the need for laboratory kinematic or kinetic test data.Direct Collocation optimization provides an efficient means to perform task based optimization and predictive modeling. It is relatively straight forward to structure a physical exercise task in a Direct Collocation mathematical formulation: perform a motion such that you start at an initial pose, achieve a given amount of deflection i.e a squat, return to the initial pose, and minimize muscle activation cost. Direct Collocation is advantageous in that it does not require numerical integration to evaluate the objective function. Instead, the system dynamics are transformed to discrete time and the optimizer is constrained such that the solution is not considered to be a valid unless the dynamic equations are satisfied at all time points. The simulation and optimization are effectively done simultaneously. Due to the implicit integration, time steps can be more coarse than in a differential equation solver. In a gait scenario this means that that the model constraints and cost function are evaluated at 100 nodes in the gait cycle versus 10,000 integration steps in a variable-step forward dynamic simulation. Furthermore, no time is wasted on accurate simulations of movements that are far from the optimum. Constrained optimization algorithms require a Jacobian matrix that contains the partial derivatives of each of the dynamic constraints with respect to of each of the state and control variables at all time points. This is a large but sparse matrix. An implicit dynamics formulation requires computation of the dynamic residuals f as a function of the states x and their derivatives, and controls u:f(x, dxdt, u) 0If the dynamics of musculoskeletal system are formulated implicitly, the Jacobian elements are often available analytically, eliminating the need for numerical differentiation; this is obviously computationally advantageous. Additionally, implicit formulation of musculoskeletal dynamics do not suffer from singularities from low mass bodies, zero muscle activation, or other stiff system or

physical exercise↗
NASA NTRS2006

Dependence of Microelastic-plastic Nonlinearity of Martensitic Stainless Steel on Fatigue Damage Accumulation

Self-organized substructural arrangements of dislocations formed in wavy slip metals during cyclic stress-induced fatigue produce substantial changes in the material microelastic-plastic nonlinearity, a quantitative measure of which is the nonlinearity parameter Beta extracted from acoustic harmonic generation measurements. The contributions to Beta from the substructural evolution of dislocations and crack growth for fatigued martensitic 410Cb stainless steel are calculated from the Cantrell model as a function of percent full fatigue life to fracture. A wave interaction factor f(sub WI) is introduced into the model to account experimentally for the relative volume of material fatigue damage included in the volume of material swept out by an interrogating acoustic wave. For cyclic stress-controlled loading at 551 MPa and f(sub WI) = 0.013 the model predicts a monotonic increase in Beta from dislocation substructures of almost 100 percent from the virgin state to roughly 95 percent full life. Negligible contributions from cracks are predicted in this range of fatigue life. However, over the last five percent of fatigue life the model predicts a rapid monotonic increase of Beta by several thousand percent that is dominated by crack growth. The theoretical predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements of 410Cb stainless steel samples fatigued in uniaxial, stress-controlled cyclic loading at 551 MPa from zero to full tensile load with a measured f(sub WI) of 0.013.

Cantrell, John H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A Saturnian stratospheric seasonal climate model

Motivated by recent observational evidence that seasonal processes occur within Saturn's stratosphere, a seasonal stratospheric climate model has been constructed. This model predicts stratospheric temperatures above the P = 0.1-atm level as a function of time throughout the Saturnian year. Specific results are presented for south-polar and equatorial temperatures. The model predicts that substantial seasonal phase lags exist; maximum stratospheric temperatures at the south pole occur at the southern hemisphere's autumnal equinox. Brightness temperature observations at 17.8 microns, taken during 1977/1978, indicate that stratospheric temperatures are greater at the south pole than at the equator. The model is consistent with these observations, predicting enhanced south polar temperatures, relative to the equator, from 1975 to 1983.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Modeling aerosol losses and clothing effects in fires

The described modification of a physiochemical fire model predicts physical effects in clothed humans exposed to elevated temperatures as well as gas and aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere of an aerospace vehicle. The modifications involve the reduction in aerosol concentrations caused by settling and some improvements in dealing with mass and heat transfer effects. Predicted skin temperatures are found to be within 2 C of experimental values for the cases studied, and model predictions of total body enthalpy seem to correlate with symptomology observed experimentally.

Cagliostro, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The measurement of atomic oxygen in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

A discussion of the laboratory calibration, calibration simulation, and accuracy of a resonance fluorescence instrument for measuring oxygen atoms is presented. The discussion demonstrates that a sensor can be calibrated with good accuracy to obtain in situ measurements of the oxygen density in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere. Oxygen data are reported from six rocket flights. These data represent four midlatitude flights and two auroral flights. There are two night and two day profiles for the midlatitude experiments. The maximum densities found from these sets of data in the 90-100 km regions are between 1.5 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm and 3.5 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm. Agreement with the MSIS-86 model predictions is obtained for altitudes above 120 km for midlatitude flights. The auroral data are less than the model prediction by about a factor of 2. The data show structure that is probably indicative of gravity wave effects of a nominal 5-km vertical wavelength.

Sharp, William E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

International Space Station 2A Array Modal Analysis

On December 9th 2009, the International Space Station (ISS) 2A solar array mast experienced prolonged longeron shadowing during a Soyuz undocking. Analytical reconstruction of induced thermal and dynamic structural loads showed an exceedance of the mast buckling limit. Possible structural damage to the solar array mast could have occurred during this event. A Low fidelity video survey of the 2A mast showed no obvious damage of the mast longerons or battens. The decision was made to conduct an on-orbit dynamic test of the 2A array on December 18th, 2009. The test included thruster pluming on the array while photogrammetry data was recorded. The test was similar to other Dedicated Thruster Firings (DTFs) that were performed to measure structural frequency and damping of a solar array. Results of the DTF indicated lower frequency mast modes than model predictions, thus leading to speculation of mast damage. A detailed nonlinear analysis was performed on the 2A array model to assess possible solutions to modal differences. The setup of the parametric nonlinear trade study included the use of a detailed array model and the reduced mass and stiffness matrices of the entire ISS being applied to the array interface. The study revealed that the array attachment structure is nonlinear and thus was the source of error in the model prediction of mast modes. In addition, a detailed study was performed to determine mast mode sensitivity to mast longeron damage. This sensitivity study was performed to assess if the ISS program has sufficient instrumentation for mast damage detection.

Laible, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2023

Polar Firn Properties in Greenland and Antarctica and Related Effects on Microwave Brightness Temperatures

In studying the mass balance of polar ice sheets, fluctuations of firn density near the surface is a major uncertainty. In this paper, we explore these variations at locations in the Greenland Ice Sheet and at the Dome C location in Antarctica. Borehole in situ measurements, Snow Radar echoes, microwave brightness temperatures, and modelling results from the Community firn model (CFM) are used. It is shown that firn density profiles can be represented using 3 processes: “long” and “short” length scale density variations and “refrozen layers”. Consistency with this description is observed in the dynamic range of airborne 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures and Snow Radar echo peaks in measurements performed in Greenland in 2017. Based on these insights, a new analytical partially coherent model is implemented to explain the microwave brightness temperatures using the three scale description of the firn. Short and long scale firn processes are modelled as a 3D continuous random medium with finite vertical and horizontal correlation lengths as opposed to past 1D random layered medium descriptions. Refrozen layers are described as deterministic sheets with planar interfaces, with the number of refrozen layer interfaces determined by radar observations. Firn density and correlation length parameters used in forward modelling to match measured 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures in Greenland show consistency with similar parameters in CFM predictions. Model predictions also are in good agreement with multi-angle 1.4 GHz vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperature measured by the SMOS satellite at DOME C, Antarctica. This work shows that co-located active and passive microwave measurements can be used to infer polar firn properties that can be compared with predictions of the CFM. In particular, 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperature measurements are shown to be sensitive to long scale firn density fluctuations with density standard deviations in the range 0.01-0.06 g/cm^3 and vertical correlation lengths of 6-20 cm.

Haokui Xu↗
NASA NTRS1979

Use of refinery computer model to predict fuel production

Several factors (crudes, refinery operation and specifications) that affect yields and properties of broad specification jet fuel were parameterized using the refinery simulation model which can simulate different types of refineries were used to make the calculations. Results obtained from the program are used to correlate yield as a function of final boiling point, hydrogen content and freezing point for jet fuels produced in two refinery configurations, each one processing a different crude mix. Refinery performances are also compared in terms of energy consumption.

Flores, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Role of muscle pulleys in producing eye position-dependence in the angular vestibuloocular reflex: a model-based study

It is well established that the head and eye velocity axes do not always align during compensatory vestibular slow phases. It has been shown that the eye velocity axis systematically tilts away from the head velocity axis in a manner that is dependent on eye-in-head position. The mechanisms responsible for producing these axis tilts are unclear. In this model-based study, we aimed to determine whether muscle pulleys could be involved in bringing about these phenomena. The model presented incorporates semicircular canals, central vestibular pathways, and an ocular motor plant with pulleys. The pulleys were modeled so that they brought about a rotation of the torque axes of the extraocular muscles that was a fraction of the angle of eye deviation from primary position. The degree to which the pulleys rotated the torque axes was altered by means of a pulley coefficient. Model input was head velocity and initial eye position data from passive and active yaw head impulses with fixation at 0 degrees, 20 degrees up and 20 degrees down, obtained from a previous experiment. The optimal pulley coefficient required to fit the data was determined by calculating the mean square error between data and model predictions of torsional eye velocity. For active head impulses, the optimal pulley coefficient varied considerably between subjects. The median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.5, the pulley coefficient required for producing saccades that perfectly obey Listing's law when using a two-dimensional saccadic pulse signal. The model predicted the direction of the axis tilts observed in response to passive head impulses from 50 ms after onset. During passive head impulses, the median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.21, when roll gain was fixed at 0.7. The model did not accurately predict the alignment of the eye and head velocity axes that was observed early in the response to passive head impulses. We found that this alignment could be well predicted if the roll gain of the angular vestibuloocular reflex was modified during the initial period of the response, while pulley coefficient was maintained at 0.5. Hence a roll gain modification allows stabilization of the retinal image without requiring a change in the pulley effect. Our results therefore indicate that the eye position-dependent velocity axis tilts could arise due to the effects of the pulleys and that a roll gain modification in the central vestibular structures may be responsible for countering the pulley effect.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS1986

Radiometric responsivity determination for Feature Identification and Location Experiment (FILE) flown on space shuttle mission

A procedure was developed to obtain the radiometric (radiance) responsivity of the Feature Identification and Local Experiment (FILE) instrument in preparation for its flight on Space Shuttle Mission 41-G (November 1984). This instrument was designed to obtain Earth feature radiance data in spectral bands centered at 0.65 and 0.85 microns, along with corroborative color and color-infrared photographs, and to collect data to evaluate a technique for in-orbit autonomous classification of the Earth's primary features. The calibration process incorporated both solar radiance measurements and radiative transfer model predictions in estimating expected radiance inputs to the FILE on the Shuttle. The measured data are compared with the model predictions, and the differences observed are discussed. Application of the calibration procedure to the FILE over an 18-month period indicated a constant responsivity characteristic. This report documents the calibration procedure and the associated radiometric measurements and predictions that were part of the instrument preparation for flight.

Wilson, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

New observations of stratospheric N2O5

The unequivocal detection of N2O5 in the stratosphere was reported by Toon et al. based on measurements of the absorption by the N2O5 bands at 1246 and 1720/cm in solar occulation spectra recorded at sunrise near 47 S latitude by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment during the Spacelab 3 (SL3) shuttle mission. Additional measurements and analysis of stratospheric N2O5 derived from the ATMOS/SL3 spectra are reported. The primary results are the detection and measurement of N2O5 absorption at sunset in the lower stratosphere, the inversion of a precise (approximately 10 percent) N2O5 sunrise vertical distribution between 25.5 and 37.5 km altitude, and the identification and measurement of absorption by the N2O5 743/cm band at sunrise. Assuming 4.32 x 10(sup -17) and 4.36 x 10(sup -17)/cm/molecule/sq cm respectively for the integrated intensities of the 1246 and 743/cm bands at stratospheric temperatures, retrieved volume mixing ratios in parts per billion by volume (ppbv) at sunrise (47 S latitude) are 1.32 + or - 0.34 at 37.5 km, 1.53 + or - 0.35 at 35.5 km, 1.63 + or - 0.36 at 33.5 km, 1.60 + or - 0.34 at 31.5 km, 1.43 + or - 0.30 at 29.5 km, 1.15 + or - 0.24 at 27.5 km, and 0.73 + or - 0.15 at 25.5 km. Retrieved VMRs in ppbv at sunset (30 N latitude) are 0.13 + or - 0.05 at 29.5 km, 0.14 + or - 0.05 at 27.5 km, and 0.10 + or - 0.04 at 25.5 km. Quoted error limits (1 sigma) include the error in the assumed band intensities (approximately 20 percent). Within the error limits of the measurements, the inferred mixing ratios at sunrise agree with diurnal photochemical model predictions obtained by two groups using current photochemical data. The measured mixing ratios at sunset are lower than the model predictions with differences of about a factor of 2 at 25 km altitude.

Rinsland, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling marine boundary-layer clouds with a two-layer model: A one-dimensional simulation

A two-layer model of the marine boundary layer is described. The model is used to simulate both stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds in downstream simulations. Over cold sea surfaces, the model predicts a relatively uniform structure in the boundary layer with 90%-100% cloud fraction. Over warm sea surfaces, the model predicts a relatively strong decoupled and conditionally unstable structure with a cloud fraction between 30% and 60%. A strong large-scale divergence considerably limits the height of the boundary layer and decreases relative humidity in the upper part of the cloud layer; thus, a low cloud fraction results. The efffects of drizzle on the boundary-layer structure and cloud fraction are also studied with downstream simulations. It is found that drizzle dries and stabilizes the cloud layer and tends to decouple the cloud from the subcloud layer. Consequently, solid stratocumulus clouds may break up and the cloud fraction may decrease because of drizzle.

Wang, Shouping↗