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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Rejection Sampling with Autodifferentiation -- Case study: Fitting a Hadronization Model

We present an autodifferentiable rejection sampling algorithm termed Rejection Sampling with Autodifferentiation (RSA). In conjunction with reweighting, we show that RSA can be used for efficient parameter estimation and model exploration. Additionally, this approach facilitates the use of unbinned machine-learning-based observables, allowing for more precise, data-driven fits. To showcase these capabilities, we apply an RSA-based parameter fit to a simplified hadronization model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Modeling Applications

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models for the purpose of forecasting and describing the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Incorporating these data can greatly stabilize a compartmental model fit on early observations, where slight perturbations in the data may lead to model fits that forecast wildly unrealistic peak infection. We introduce a new method for incorporating historic data on the value and time of peak incidence of hospitalization into the fit for a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model by formulating the relationship between an SIR model’s starting parameters and peak incidence as a system of two equations that can be solved computationally. We demonstrate how to calculate SIR parameter estimates – which describe disease dynamics such as transmission and recovery rates – using this method, and determine that there is a noticeable loss in accuracy whenever prevalence data is misspecified as incidence data. To exhibit the modeling potential, we update the Dirichlet-Beta State Space modeling framework to use hospital incidence data, as this framework was previously formulated to incorporate only data on total infections. This approach is assessed for practicality in terms of accuracy and speed of computation via simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Spectral observations of Ellerman bombs and fitting with a two-cloud model

We study the Hα and Ca II 8542 Å line spectra of four typical Ellerman bombs (EBs) in the active region NOAA 11765 on 2013 June 6, observed with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph installed at the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. Considering that EBs may occur in a restricted region in the lower atmosphere, and that their spectral lines show particular features, we propose a two-cloud model to fit the observed line profiles. The lower cloud can account for the wing emission, and the upper cloud is mainly responsible for the absorption at line center. After choosing carefully the free parameters, we get satisfactory fitting results. As expected, the lower cloud shows an increase of the source function, corresponding to a temperature increase of 400-1000 K in EBs relative to the quiet Sun. This is consistent with previous results deduced from semi-empirical models and confirms that local heating occurs in the lower atmosphere during the appearance of EBs. We also find that the optical depths can increase to some extent in both the lower and upper clouds, which may result from either direct heating in the lower cloud, or illumination by an enhanced radiation on the upper cloud. The velocities derived from this method, however, are different from those obtained using the traditional bisector method, implying that one should be cautious when interpreting this parameter. The two-cloud model can thus be used as an efficient method to deduce the basic physical parameters of EBs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE LEECH EXOPLANET IMAGING SURVEY: CHARACTERIZATION OF THE COLDEST DIRECTLY IMAGED EXOPLANET, GJ 504 b, AND EVIDENCE FOR SUPERSTELLAR METALLICITY

As gas giant planets and brown dwarfs radiate away the residual heat from their formation, they cool through a spectral type transition from L to T, which encompasses the dissipation of cloud opacity and the appearance of strong methane absorption. While there are hundreds of known T-type brown dwarfs, the first generation of directly imaged exoplanets were all L type. Recently, Kuzuhara et al. announced the discovery of GJ 504 b, the first T dwarf exoplanet. GJ 504 b provides a unique opportunity to study the atmosphere of a new type of exoplanet with a ∼500 K temperature that bridges the gap between the first directly imaged planets (∼1000 K) and our own solar system's Jupiter (∼130 K). We observed GJ 504 b in three narrow L-band filters (3.71, 3.88, and 4.00 μm), spanning the red end of the broad methane fundamental absorption feature (3.3 μm) as part of the LBTI Exozodi Exoplanet Common Hunt (LEECH) exoplanet imaging survey. By comparing our new photometry and literature photometry with a grid of custom model atmospheres, we were able to fit GJ 504 b's unusual spectral energy distribution for the first time. We find that GJ 504 b is well fit by models with the following parameters: T{sub eff} = 544 ± 10 K, g < 600 m s{sup −2}, [M/H] = 0.60 ± 0.12, cloud opacity parameter of f{sub sed} = 2–5, R = 0.96 ± 0.07 R{sub Jup}, and log(L) = −6.13 ± 0.03 L{sub ⊙}, implying a hot start mass of 3–30 M{sub jup} for a conservative age range of 0.1–6.5 Gyr. Of particular interest, our model fits suggest that GJ 504 b has a superstellar metallicity. Since planet formation can create objects with nonstellar metallicities, while binary star formation cannot, this result suggests that GJ 504 b formed like a planet, not like a binary companion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

TOWARD PRECISION BLACK HOLE MASSES WITH ALMA: NGC 1332 AS A CASE STUDY IN MOLECULAR DISK DYNAMICS

We present first results from a program of Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) CO(2–1) observations of circumnuclear gas disks in early-type galaxies. The program was designed with the goal of detecting gas within the gravitational sphere of influence of the central black holes (BHs). In NGC 1332, the 0.″3-resolution ALMA data reveal CO emission from the highly inclined (i≈83{sup ∘}) circumnuclear disk, spatially coincident with the dust disk seen in Hubble Space Telescope images. The disk exhibits a central upturn in maximum line-of-sight velocity, reaching ±500 km s{sup −1} relative to the systemic velocity, consistent with the expected signature of rapid rotation around a supermassive BH. Rotational broadening and beam smearing produce complex and asymmetric line profiles near the disk center. We constructed dynamical models for the rotating disk and fitted the modeled CO line profiles directly to the ALMA data cube. Degeneracy between rotation and turbulent velocity dispersion in the inner disk precludes the derivation of strong constraints on the BH mass, but model fits allowing for a plausible range in the magnitude of the turbulent dispersion imply a central mass in the range of ∼(4–8) × 10{sup 8} M{sub ⊙}. We argue that gas-kinematic observations resolving the BH’s projected radius of influence along the disk’s minor axis will have the capability to yield BH mass measurements that are largely insensitive to systematic uncertainties in turbulence or in the stellar mass profile. For highly inclined disks, this is a much more stringent requirement than the usual sphere-of-influence criterion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Petascale Hierarchical Modeling VIA Parallel Execution

The research allows more effective model building. By allowing researchers to fit complex models to large datasets in a scalable manner, our algorithms and software enable more effective scientific research. In the new area of “big data,” it is often necessary to fit “big models” to adjust for systematic differences between sample and population. For this task, scalable and efficient model-fitting tools are needed, and these have been achieved with our new Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, the no-U-turn sampler, and our new C++ program, Stan. In layman’s terms, our research enables researchers to create improved mathematical modes for large and complex systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗
DOE OSTI2016

ALMA observations of the debris disk of solar analog τ Ceti

We present 1.3 mm observations of the Sun-like star τ Ceti with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array that probe angular scales of ∼1{sup ′′} (4 au). This first interferometric image of the τ Ceti system, which hosts both a debris disk and a possible multiplanet system, shows emission from a nearly face-on belt of cold dust with a position angle of 90{sup ∘} surrounding an unresolved central source at the stellar position. To characterize this emission structure, we fit parametric models to the millimeter visibilities. The resulting best-fit model yields an inner belt edge of 6.2{sub −4.6}{sup +9.8} au, consistent with inferences from lower resolution, far-infrared Herschel observations. While the limited data at sufficiently short baselines preclude us from placing stronger constraints on the belt properties and its relation to the proposed five planet system, the observations do provide a strong lower limit on the fractional width of the belt, ΔR/R>0.75 with 99% confidence. This fractional width is more similar to broad disks such as HD 107146 than narrow belts such as the Kuiper Belt and Fomalhaut. The unresolved central source has a higher flux density than the predicted flux of the stellar photosphere at 1.3 mm. Given previous measurements of an excess by a factor of ∼2 at 8.7 mm, this emission is likely due to a hot stellar chromosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Data Synergy Effects of Time-Series Deep Learning Models in Hydrology

When fitting statistical models to variables in geoscientific disciplines such as hydrology, it is a customary practice to stratify a large domain into multiple regions (or regimes) and study each region separately. Traditional wisdom suggests that models built for each region separately will have higher performance because of homogeneity within each region. However, each stratified model has access to fewer and less diverse data points. Here, through two hydrologic examples (soil moisture and streamflow), we show that conventional wisdom may no longer hold in the era of big data and deep learning (DL). We systematically examined an effect we call data synergy, where the results of the DL models improved when data were pooled together from characteristically different regions. The performance of the DL models benefited from modest diversity in the training data compared to a homogeneous training set, even with similar data quantity. Moreover, allowing heterogeneous training data makes eligible much larger training datasets, which is an inherent advantage of DL. A large, diverse data set is advantageous in terms of representing extreme events and future scenarios, which has strong implications for climate change impact assessment. The results here suggest the research community should place greater emphasis on data sharing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical modeling of hepatitis C RNA replication, exosome secretion and virus release

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes acute hepatitis C and can lead to life-threatening complications if it becomes chronic. The HCV genome is a single plus strand of RNA. Its intracellular replication is a spatiotemporally coordinated process of RNA translation upon cell infection, RNA synthesis within a replication compartment, and virus particle production. While HCV is mainly transmitted via mature infectious virus particles, it has also been suggested that HCV-infected cells can secrete HCV RNA carrying exosomes that can infect cells in a receptor independent manner. In order to gain insight into these two routes of transmission, we developed a series of intracellular HCV replication models that include HCV RNA secretion and/or virus assembly and release. Fitting our models to in vitro data, in which cells were infected with HCV, suggests that initially most secreted HCV RNA derives from intracellular cytosolic plus-strand RNA, but subsequently secreted HCV RNA derives equally from the cytoplasm and the replication compartments. Furthermore, our model fits to the data suggest that the rate of virus assembly and release is limited by host cell resources. Including the effects of direct acting antivirals in our models, we found that in spite of decreasing intracellular HCV RNA and extracellular virus concentration, low level HCV RNA secretion may continue as long as intracellular RNA is available. This may possibly explain the presence of detectable levels of plasma HCV RNA at the end of treatment even in patients that ultimately attain a sustained virologic response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A validated tumor control probability model based on a meta-analysis of low, intermediate, and high-risk prostate cancer patients treated by photon, proton, or carbon-ion radiotherapy

Purpose: A fully heterogeneous population averaged mechanistic tumor control probability (TCP) model is appropriate for the analysis of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). This has been accomplished for EBRT photon treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Extending the TCP model for low and high-risk patients would be beneficial in terms of overall decision making. Furthermore, different radiation treatment modalities such as protons and carbon-ions are becoming increasingly available. Consequently, there is a need for a complete TCP model. Methods: A TCP model was fitted and validated to a primary endpoint of 5-year biological no evidence of disease clinical outcome data obtained from a review of the literature for low, intermediate, and high-risk prostate cancer patients (5218 patients fitted, 1088 patients validated), treated by photons, protons, or carbon-ions. The review followed the preferred reporting item for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. Treatment regimens include standard fractionation and hypofractionation treatments. Residual analysis and goodness of fit statistics were applied. Results: The TCP model achieves a good level of fit overall, linear regression results in a p-value of <0.000 01 with an adjusted-weighted-R{sup 2} value of 0.77 and a weighted root mean squared error (wRMSE) of 1.2%, to the fitted clinical outcome data. Validation of the model utilizing three independent datasets obtained from the literature resulted in an adjusted-weighted-R{sup 2} value of 0.78 and a wRMSE of less than 1.8%, to the validation clinical outcome data. The weighted mean absolute residual across the entire dataset is found to be 5.4%. Conclusions: This TCP model fitted and validated to clinical outcome data, appears to be an appropriate model for the inclusion of all clinical prostate cancer risk categories, and allows evaluation of current EBRT modalities with regard to tumor control prediction.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2019

tRNA functional signatures classify plastids as late-branching cyanobacteria

Eukaryotes acquired the trait of oxygenic photosynthesis through endosymbiosis of the cyanobacterial progenitor of plastid organelles. Despite recent advances in the phylogenomics of Cyanobacteria, the phylogenetic root of plastids remains controversial. Although a single origin of plastids by endosymbiosis is broadly supported, recent phylogenomic studies are contradictory on whether plastids branch early or late within Cyanobacteria. One underlying cause may be poor fit of evolutionary models to complex phylogenomic data. Using Posterior Predictive Analysis, we show that recently applied evolutionary models poorly fit three phylogenomic datasets curated from cyanobacteria and plastid genomes because of heterogeneities in both substitution processes across sites and of compositions across lineages. To circumvent these sources of bias, we developed CYANO-MLP, a machine learning algorithm that consistently and accurately phylogenetically classifies (“phyloclassifies”) cyanobacterial genomes to their clade of origin based on bioinformatically predicted function-informative features in tRNA gene complements. Classification of cyanobacterial genomes with CYANO-MLP is accurate and robust to deletion of clades, unbalanced sampling, and compositional heterogeneity in input tRNA data. CYANO-MLP consistently classifies plastid genomes into a late-branching cyanobacterial sub-clade containing single-cell, starch-producing, nitrogen-fixing ecotypes, consistent with metabolic and gene transfer data. Phylogenomic data of cyanobacteria and plastids exhibit both site-process heterogeneities and compositional heterogeneities across lineages. These aspects of the data require careful modeling to avoid bias in phylogenomic estimation. Furthermore, we show that amino acid recoding strategies may be insufficient to mitigate bias from compositional heterogeneities. However, the combination of our novel tRNA-specific strategy with machine learning in CYANO-MLP appears robust to these sources of bias with high accuracy in phyloclassification of cyanobacterial genomes. CYANO-MLP consistently classifies plastids as late-branching Cyanobacteria, consistent with independent evidence from signature-based approaches and some previous phylogenetic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining PCA and nonlinear fitting of peak models to re-evaluate C 1s XPS spectrum of cellulose

Cellulose is an example of a material that responds to XPS by the creation of new chemistry not present in the as-received sample. While improvements in instrumentation may be seen in general as beneficial to surface science, recent studies have shown that the consequences for some materials are detrimental. Here, in this work, these problems are illustrated through an analysis of cellulose spectra obtained during a degradation study. C 1s spectra are decomposed into two well-formed component curves that are open to chemical interpretation. In particular, a component-curve representative of pure cellulose is obtained as well as a second component curve that implies cellulose is degraded through the creation of carbon chemistry involving C—O, C$=$O and O—C$=$O. Since cellulose is a crystalline material, formed through the alignment of molecules under the influence of hydrogen bonds, the analysis and findings presented in this paper are relevant to any material analyzed by XPS whose properties are dependent on hydrogen bonds. The analysis techniques are based on an informed vectorial approach, which extracts directly from data spectral shapes that are used to monitor sample degradation via linear least squares optimization. Related mathematics of Principal Component Analysis and linear analysis are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strongly temperature dependent ferroelectric switching in AlN, Al 1-x Sc x N, and Al 1-x B x N thin films

This manuscript reports the temperature dependence of ferroelectric switching in Al 0.84 Sc 0.16 N, Al 0.93 B 0.07 N, and AlN thin films. Polarization reversal is demonstrated in all compositions and is strongly temperature dependent. Between room temperature and 300 °C, the coercive field drops by almost 50% in all samples, while there was very small temperature dependence of the remanent polarization value. Furthermore, over this same temperature range, the relative permittivity increased between 5% and 10%. Polarization reversal was confirmed by piezoelectric coefficient analysis and chemical etching. Applying intrinsic/homogeneous switching models produces nonphysical fits, while models based on thermal activation suggest that switching is regulated by a distribution of pinning sites or nucleation barriers with an average activation energy near 28 meV.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Case study: Accounting for response measurement error in fitting a regression model

This article presents a case study motivated by a plot of data that suggested an emerging trend that the authors were faced with explaining. When the measurement error of the data is accounted for, it turns out there was no real trend. Furthermore, this article shows how to use a Bayesian modeling approach to account for the measurement error.

42 ENGINEERING↗