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DOE OSTI2015

EFFECT OF LONGITUDE-DEPENDENT CLOUD COVERAGE ON EXOPLANET VISIBLE WAVELENGTH REFLECTED-LIGHT PHASE CURVES

We use a planetary albedo model to investigate variations in visible wavelength phase curves of exoplanets. Thermal and cloud properties for these exoplanets are derived using one-dimensional radiative-convective and cloud simulations. The presence of clouds on these exoplanets significantly alters their planetary albedo spectra. We confirm that non-uniform cloud coverage on the dayside of tidally locked exoplanets will manifest as changes to the magnitude and shift of the phase curve. In this work, we first investigate a test case of our model using a Jupiter-like planet, at temperatures consistent to 2.0 AU insolation from a solar type star, to consider the effect of H{sub 2}O clouds. We then extend our application of the model to the exoplanet Kepler-7b and consider the effect of varying cloud species, sedimentation efficiency, particle size, and cloud altitude. We show that, depending on the observational filter, the largest possible shift of the phase curve maximum will be ∼2°–10° for a Jupiter-like planet, and up to ∼30° (∼0.08 in fractional orbital phase) for hot-Jupiter exoplanets at visible wavelengths as a function of dayside cloud distribution with a uniformly averaged thermal profile. The models presented in this work can be adapted for a variety of planetary cases at visible wavelengths to include variations in planet–star separation, gravity, metallicity, and source-observer geometry. Finally, we tailor our model for comparison with, and confirmation of, the recent optical phase-curve observations of Kepler-7b with the Kepler space telescope. The average planetary albedo can vary between 0.1 and 0.6 for the 1300 cloud scenarios that were compared to the observations. Many of these cases cannot produce a high enough albedo to match the observations. We observe that smaller particle size and increasing cloud altitude have a strong effect on increasing albedo. In particular, we show that a set of models where Kepler-7b has roughly half of its dayside covered in small-particle clouds high in the atmosphere, made of bright minerals like MgSiO{sub 3} and Mg{sub 2}SiO{sub 4,} provide the best fits to the observed offset and magnitude of the phase-curve, whereas Fe clouds are found to be too dark to fit the observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

GIANT IMPACT: AN EFFICIENT MECHANISM FOR THE DEVOLATILIZATION OF SUPER-EARTHS

Mini-Neptunes and volatile-poor super-Earths coexist on adjacent orbits in proximity to host stars such as Kepler-36 and Kepler-11. Several post-formation processes have been proposed for explaining the origin of the compositional diversity between neighboring planets: mass loss via stellar XUV irradiation, degassing of accreted material, and in situ accumulation of the disk gas. Close-in planets are also likely to experience giant impacts during the advanced stage of planet formation. This study examines the possibility of transforming volatile-rich super-Earths/mini-Neptunes into volatile-depleted super-Earths through giant impacts. We present the results of three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of giant impacts in the accretionary and disruptive regimes. Target planets are modeled with a three-layered structure composed of an iron core, silicate mantle, and hydrogen/helium envelope. In the disruptive case, the giant impact can remove most of the H/He atmosphere immediately and homogenize the refractory material in the planetary interior. In the accretionary case, the planet is able to retain more than half of the original gaseous envelope, while a compositional gradient suppresses efficient heat transfer as the planetary interior undergoes double-diffusive convection. After the giant impact, a hot and inflated planet cools and contracts slowly. The extended atmosphere enhances the mass loss via both a Parker wind induced by thermal pressure and hydrodynamic escape driven by the stellar XUV irradiation. As a result, the entire gaseous envelope is expected to be lost due to the combination of those processes in both cases. Based on our results, we propose that Kepler-36b may have been significantly devolatilized by giant impacts, while a substantial fraction of Kepler-36c’s atmosphere may remain intact. Furthermore, the stochastic nature of giant impacts may account for the observed large dispersion in the mass–radius relationship of close-in super-Earths and mini-Neptunes (at least to some extent)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Code dependencies of pre-supernova evolution and nucleosynthesis in massive stars: evolution to the end of core helium burning

We present a comparison of 15M ⊙ , 20M ⊙ and 25M ⊙ stellar models from three different codes|GENEC, KEPLER and MESA|and their nucleosynthetic yields. The models are calculated from the main sequence up to the pre-supernova (pre-SN) stage and do not include rotation. The GENEC and KEPLER models hold physics assumptions that are characteristic of the two codes. The MESA code is generally more flexible; overshooting of the convective core during the hydrogen and helium burning phases in MESA is chosen such that the CO core masses are consistent with those in the GENEC models. Full nucleosynthesis calculations are performed for all models using the NuGrid post-processing tool MPPNP and the key energy-generating nuclear reaction rates are the same for all codes. We are thus able to highlight the key diferences between the models that are caused by the contrasting physics assumptions and numerical implementations of the three codes. A reasonable agreement is found between the surface abundances predicted by the models computed using the different codes, with GENEC exhibiting the strongest enrichment of H-burning products and KEPLER exhibiting the weakest. There are large variations in both the structure and composition of the models—the 15M ⊙ and 20M ⊙ in particular—at the pre-SN stage from code to code caused primarily by convective shell merging during the advanced stages. For example the C-shell abundances of O, Ne and Mg predicted by the three codes span one order of magnitude in the 15M ⊙ models. For the alpha elements between Si and Fe the differences are even larger. The s-process abundances in the C shell are modified by the merging of convective shells; the modification is strongest in the 15M ⊙ model in which the C-shell material is exposed to O-burning temperatures and the γ -process is activated. The variation in the s-process abundances across the codes is smallest in the 25M ⊙ models, where it is comparable to the impact of nuclear reaction rate uncertainties. In general the differences in the results from the three codes are due to their contrasting physics assumptions (e.g. prescriptions for mass loss and convection). The broadly similar evolution of the 25M ⊙ models gives us reassurance that different stellar evolution codes do produce similar results. For the 15M ⊙ and 20M ⊙ models, however, the different input physics and the interplay between the various convective zones lead to important differences in both the pre-supernova structure and nucleosynthesis predicted by the three codes. For the KEPLER models the core masses are different and therefore an exact match could not be expected.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

KIC 7177553: A QUADRUPLE SYSTEM OF TWO CLOSE BINARIES

KIC 7177553 was observed by the Kepler satellite to be an eclipsing eccentric binary star system with an 18-day orbital period. Recently, an eclipse timing study of the Kepler binaries has revealed eclipse timing variations (ETVs) in this object with an amplitude of ∼100 s and an outer period of 529 days. The implied mass of the third body is that of a super-Jupiter, but below the mass of a brown dwarf. We therefore embarked on a radial velocity (RV) study of this binary to determine its system configuration and to check the hypothesis that it hosts a giant planet. From the RV measurements, it became immediately obvious that the same Kepler target contains another eccentric binary, this one with a 16.5-day orbital period. Direct imaging using adaptive optics reveals that the two binaries are separated by 0.″4 (∼167 AU) and have nearly the same magnitude (to within 2%). The close angular proximity of the two binaries and very similar γ velocities strongly suggest that KIC 7177553 is one of the rare SB4 systems consisting of two eccentric binaries where at least one system is eclipsing. Both systems consist of slowly rotating, nonevolved, solar-like stars of comparable masses. From the orbital separation and the small difference in γ velocity, we infer that the period of the outer orbit most likely lies in the range of 1000–3000 yr. New images taken over the next few years, as well as the high-precision astrometry of the Gaia satellite mission, will allow us to set much narrower constraints on the system geometry. Finally, we note that the observed ETVs in the Kepler data cannot be produced by the second binary. Further spectroscopic observations on a longer timescale will be required to prove the existence of the massive planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Spin–orbit alignment of exoplanet systems: Ensemble analysis using asteroseismology

The angle ψ between a planet's orbital axis and the spin axis of its parent star is an important diagnostic of planet formation, migration, and tidal evolution. We seek empirical constraints on ψ by measuring the stellar inclination is via asteroseismology for an ensemble of 25 solar-type hosts observed with NASA's Kepler satellite. Our results for is are consistent with alignment at the 2σ level for all stars in the sample, meaning that the system surrounding the red-giant star Kepler-56 remains as the only unambiguous misaligned multiple-planet system detected to date. The availability of a measurement of the projected spin–orbit angle λ for two of the systems allows us to estimate ψ. We find that the orbit of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-7b is likely to be retrograde, whereas that of Kepler-25c seems to be well aligned with the stellar spin axis. hile the latter result is in apparent contradiction with a statement made previously in the literature that the multi-transiting system Kepler-25 is misaligned, we show that the results are consistent, given the large associated uncertainties. Finally, we perform a hierarchical Bayesian analysis based on the asteroseismic sample in order to recover the underlying distribution of ψ. The ensemble analysis suggests that the directions of the stellar spin and planetary orbital axes are correlated, as conveyed by a tendency of the host stars to display large values of inclination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Spin–Orbit Misalignments of Three Jovian Planets via Doppler Tomography

We present measurements of the spin–orbit misalignments of the hot Jupiters HAT-P-41 b and WASP-79 b, and the aligned warm Jupiter Kepler-448 b. We obtain these measurements with Doppler tomography, where we spectroscopically resolve the line profile perturbation during the transit due to the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect. We analyze time series spectra obtained during portions of five transits of HAT-P-41 b, and find a value of the spin–orbit misalignment of λ=−22.1{sub −6.0}{sup +0.8{sup {sup ∘}}}. We reanalyze the radial velocity Rossiter–McLaughlin data on WASP-79 b obtained by Addison et al. using Doppler tomographic methodology. We measure λ=−99.1{sub −3.9}{sup +4.1{sup {sup ∘}}}, consistent with but more precise than the value found by Addison et al. For Kepler-448 b we perform a joint fit to the Kepler light curve, Doppler tomographic data, and a radial velocity data set from Lillo-Box et al. We find an approximately aligned orbit (λ=−7.1{sub −2.8}{sup +4.2{sup {sup ∘}}}), in agreement with the value found by Bourrier et al. Through analysis of the Kepler light curve we measure a stellar rotation period of P{sub rot}=1.27±0.11 days, and use this to argue that the full three-dimensional spin–orbit misalignment is small, ψ∼0{sup ∘}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Fitting Formulae and Constraints for the Existence of S-type and P-type Habitable Zones in Binary Systems

We derive fitting formulae for the quick determination of the existence of S-type and P-type habitable zones (HZs) in binary systems. Based on previous work, we consider the limits of the climatological HZ in binary systems (which sensitively depend on the system parameters) based on a joint constraint encompassing planetary orbital stability and a habitable region for a possible system planet. Additionally, we employ updated results on planetary climate models obtained by Kopparapu and collaborators. Our results are applied to four P-type systems (Kepler-34, Kepler-35, Kepler-413, and Kepler-1647) and two S-type systems (TrES-2 and KOI-1257). Our method allows us to gauge the existence of climatological HZs for these systems in a straightforward manner with detailed consideration of the observational uncertainties. Further applications may include studies of other existing systems as well as systems to be identified through future observational campaigns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Astraea: Predicting Long Rotation Periods with 27 Day Light Curves

The rotation periods of planet-hosting stars can be used for modeling and mitigating the impact of magnetic activity in radial velocity measurements and can help constrain the high-energy flux environment and space weather of planetary systems. Millions of stars and thousands of planet hosts are observed with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). However, most will only be observed for 27 contiguous days in a year, making it difficult to measure rotation periods with traditional methods. This is especially problematic for field M dwarfs, which are ideal candidates for exoplanet searches, but which tend to have periods in excess of the 27 day observing baseline. We present a new tool, Astraea, for predicting long rotation periods from short-duration light curves combined with stellar parameters from Gaia DR2. Using Astraea, we can predict the rotation periods from Kepler 4 yr light curves with 13% uncertainty overall (and a 9% uncertainty for periods >30 days). By training on 27 day Kepler light-curve segments, Astraea can predict rotation periods up to 150 days with 9% uncertainty (5% for periods >30 days). After training this tool on these 27 day Kepler light-curve segments, we applied Astraea to real TESS data. For the 195 stars that were observed by both Kepler and TESS, we were able to predict the rotation periods with 55% uncertainty despite the wild differences in systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Intermediate-age Alpha-rich Galactic Population in K2

We explore the relationships between the chemistry, ages, and locations of stars in the Galaxy using asteroseismic data from the K2 mission and spectroscopic data from the Apache Point Galactic Evolution Experiment survey. Previous studies have used giant stars in the Kepler field to map the relationship between the chemical composition and the ages of stars at the solar circle. Consistent with prior work, we find that stars with high [α/Fe] have distinct, older ages in comparison to stars with low [α/Fe]. We provide age estimates for red giant branch (RGB) stars in the Kepler field, which support and build upon previous age estimates by taking into account the effect of α-enrichment on opacity. Including this effect for [α/Fe]-rich stars results in up to 10% older ages for low-mass stars relative to corrected solar mixture calculations. This is a significant effect that Galactic archeology studies should take into account. Looking beyond the Kepler field, we estimate ages for 735 RGB stars from the K2 mission, mapping age trends as a function of the line of sight. We find that the age distributions for low- and high-[α/Fe] stars converge with increasing distance from the Galactic plane, in agreement with suggestions from earlier work. We find that K2 stars with high [α/Fe] appear to be younger than their counterparts in the Kepler field, overlapping more significantly with a similarly aged low-[α/Fe] population. This observation may suggest that star formation or radial migration proceeds unevenly in the Galaxy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1971

An Empirical Method for Determining the Lunar Gravity Field

A method has been devised to determine the spherical harmonic coefficients of the lunar gravity field. This method consists of a two-step data reduction and estimation process. In the first step, a weighted least-squares empirical orbit determination scheme is applied to Doppler tracking data from lunar orbits to estimate long-period Kepler elements and rates. Each of the Kepler elements is represented by an independent function of time. The long-period perturbing effects of the earth, sun, and solar radiation are explicitly modeled in this scheme. Kepler element variations estimated by this empirical processor are ascribed to the non-central lunar gravitation features. Doppler data are reduced in this manner for as many orbits as are available. In the second step, the Kepler element rates are used as input to a second least-squares processor that estimates lunar gravity coefficients using the long-period Lagrange perturbation equations.

Ferrari, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Lunar gravity derived from long-period satellite motion - A proposed method.

A new method has been devised to determine the spherical harmonic coefficients of the lunar gravity field. This method consists of a two-step data reduction and estimation process. In the first step, a weighted least-squares empirical orbit determination scheme is applied to Doppler tracking data from lunar orbits to estimate long-period Kepler elements and rates. Each of the Kepler elements is represented by an independent function of time. The long-period perturbing effects of the earth, sun, and solar radiation are explicitly modeled in this scheme. Kepler element variations estimated by this empirical processor are then ascribed to the non-central lunar gravitation features. Doppler data are reduced in this manner for as many orbits as are available. In the second step, the Kepler element rates are used as input to a second least-squares processor that estimates lunar gravity coefficients using the long-period Lagrange perturbation equations.

Ferrari, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

New developments in astrodynamics algorithms for autonomous rendezvous

A the core of any autonomous rendezvous guidance system must be two algorithms for solving Lambert's and Kepler's problems, the two fundamental problems in classical astrodynamics. Lambert's problem is to determine the trajectory connecting specified initial and terminal position vectors in a specified transfer time. The solution is the initial and terminal velocity vectors. Kepler's problem is to determine the trajectory that stems from a given initial state (position and velocity). The solution is the state of an earlier or later specified time. To be suitable for flight software, astrodynamics algorithms must be totally reliable, compact, and fast. Although solving Lambert's and Kepler's problems has challenged some of the world's finest minds for over two centuries, only in the last year have algorithms appeared that satisfy all three requirements just stated. This paper presents an evaluation of the most highly regarded Lambert and Kepler algorithms.

Klumpp, Allan R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Dependence of Signal-To-Noise Ratio (S/N) Between Star Brightness and Background on the Filter Used in Images Taken by the Vulcan Photometric Planet Search Camera

The Vulcan Photometric Planet Search is the ground-based counterpart of Kepler Mission Proposal. The Kepler Proposal calls for the launch of telescope to look intently at a small patch of sky for four year. The mission is designed to look for extra-solar planets that transit sun-like stars. The Kepler Mission should be able to detect Earth-size planets. This goal requires an instrument and software capable of detecting photometric changes of several parts per hundred thousand in the flux of a star. The goal also requires the continuous monitoring of about a hundred thousand stars. The Kepler Mission is a NASA Discovery Class proposal similar in cost to the Lunar Prospector. The Vulcan Search is also a NASA project but based at Lick Observatory. A small wide-field telescope monitors various star fields successively during the year. Dozens of images, each containing tens of thousands of stars, are taken any night that weather permits. The images are then monitored for photometric changes of the order of one part in a thousand. These changes would reveal the transit of an inner-orbit Jupiter-size planet similar to those discovered recently in spectroscopic searches. In order to achieve a one part in one thousand photometric precision even the choice of a filter used in taking an exposure can be critical. The ultimate purpose of an filter is to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of one's observation. Ideally, filters reduce the sky glow cause by street lights and, thereby, make the star images more distinct. The higher the S/N, the higher is the chance to observe a transit signal that indicates the presence of a new planet. It is, therefore, important to select the filter that maximizes the S/N.

Mena-Werth, Jose↗

NASA NTRS2017

Status of the TESS Science Processing Operations Center

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) science pipeline is being developed by the Science Processing Operations Center (SPOC) at NASA Ames Research Center based on the highly successful Kepler Mission science pipeline. Like the Kepler pipeline, the TESS science pipeline will provide calibrated pixels, simple and systematic error-corrected aperture photometry, and centroid locations for all 200,000+ target stars, observed over the 2-year mission, along with associated uncertainties. The pixel and light curve products are modeled on the Kepler archive products and will be archived to the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST). In addition to the nominal science data, the 30-minute Full Frame Images (FFIs) simultaneously collected by TESS will also be calibrated by the SPOC and archived at MAST. The TESS pipeline will search through all light curves for evidence of transits that occur when a planet crosses the disk of its host star. The Data Validation pipeline will generate a suite of diagnostic metrics for each transit-like signature discovered, and extract planetary parameters by fitting a limb-darkened transit model to each potential planetary signature. The results of the transit search will be modeled on the Kepler transit search products (tabulated numerical results, time series products, and pdf reports) all of which will be archived to MAST.

high performance computing↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploring Beyond Earth's Atmosphere with Human-Machine Teams

NASA's highly successful Kepler Mission has revolutionized our understanding of the Galaxy. We now know that planets, even Earth-size planets in the habitable zone, are common. With the end of the Kepler Mission we now look to the future with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) which will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit around the brightest stars in the sky. In a two-year survey, TESS will perform an all-sky search of more than 200,000 stars for temporary drops in brightness caused by planetary transits. With Kepler and TESS, humanity is finally at the verge of studying the masses, sizes, densities, orbits, and atmospheres of a large cohort of small planets, including a sample of rocky worlds in the habitable zones of their host stars which may prove to host life. The massive data sets generated by Kepler and TESS must be meticulously combed for the weakest planetary signals every month. While a daunting and error-prone task for humans, this is an exciting opportunity for the breakthroughs recently seen in machine learning. Specifically, traditional methods for identifying planet transits require extensive data processing pipelines followed by extensive human vetting. This manual process risks loss of information due to the data processing and to inconsistency and biases due to individual human vetters. The latest advancements in machine learning will allow an objective classifier to minimize the losses of information and greatly lessen the burden on the human vetters, in addition to providing assessment of quality and score to each planet candidate, freeing the humans to concentrate on border cases and other more interesting investigations.

Smith, Jeffrey C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Atmospheric Delay Statistics from Deep Space Network Arrays and Nearby Test Interferometers

Several techniques have been explored and demonstrated that allow for greater data return on space-to-ground links. Among these techniques, arraying several smaller diameter dish antennas together is one method used in several arenas. These arrays can achieve larger effective area and gain than are available from a single larger antenna. This technique is routinely used by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) at 8.4 GHz where the incoming signals are much weaker than those experienced by the near-Earth satellite community. When considering arraying at much higher frequencies such as 32 GHz deep-space Ka-band, the phase alignment of the individual antenna signals is significantly disrupted by atmospheric turbulence. Since 2012, several downlink array demonstrations have been conducted using 32 GHz carrier signals emitted by the deep space probes Cassini and Kepler. Site test interferometers (STIs) that receive signals from geostationary satellites have been deployed at all three DSN tracking complexes for long-term monitoring of atmospheric delay fluctuations. In a previous DSN array demonstration study involving the Cassini spacecraft, it was shown that statistics of the adjusted STI phase fluctuations matched the statistics of concurrent array demonstration phase fluctuations. These adjustments accounted for differences in antenna separation, elevation angle and spacecraft frequencies. The STI antenna separations were about 200 m and the DSN antenna separations were about 300 m. These adjustments made use of the thick-layer turbulence model that was applicable to the Goldstone desert climate during the summer months for which the data were acquired. In this paper, we report on the results of additional array demonstrations involving the Kepler spacecraft and compare the adjusted STI phase fluctuations with those seen by a nearby two-element array of 34 m diameter antennas tracking Kepler’s 32 GHz signal at the Goldstone, California and Madrid, Spain DSN sites. We also discuss results from a demonstration using an array over a longer 12.5 km baseline. The Cassini and Kepler array demonstrations were found to validate the long term statistics acquired from several years of STI data as well as the models used to adjust the statistics for the conditions of an array. These statistics represent reliable estimates of the phase fluctuations that would be seen by an array tracking a deep space signal after applying appropriate adjustments for a given array configuration, elevation angle profile and observing frequency.

Morabito, David D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential Exovenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential ExoVenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere maybe a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗