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At least 757 records · Page 42

Detecting anomalous sequences in electronic health records using higher-order tensor networks

Detecting anomalous sequences is an integral part of building and protecting modern large-scale health information technology (HIT) systems. These HIT systems generate a large volume of records of patients’ state and significant events, which provide a valuable resource to help improve clinical decisions, patient care processes, and other issues. However, detecting anomalous sequences in electronic health records (EHR) remains a challenge in healthcare applications for several reasons, including imbalances in the data, complexity of relationships between events in the sequence, and the curse of dimensionality. Conventional anomaly detection methods use the finite sequence of events to discriminate sequences. They fail to incorporate salient event details under variable higher-order dependencies (e.g., duration between events) that can provide better discrimination of sequences in their models. To address this problem, we propose event sequence and subsequence anomaly detection algorithms that (1) use network-based representations of interactions in the data, (2) account for variable higher-order dependencies in the data, and (3) incorporate events duration for adequate discrimination of the data. The proposed approach identifies anomalies by monitoring the change in the graph after the test sequence is removed from the network. The change is quantified using graph distance metrics so that dramatic changes in the network can be attributed to the removed sequence. Furthermore, the proposed subsequence algorithm recommends plausible paths and salient information for the detected anomalous subsequences. Our results show that the proposed event sequence anomaly detection algorithm outperforms the baseline methods for both synthetic data and real-world EHR data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Leveraging Open-Source Tools for Collaborative Macro-energy System Modeling Efforts

The authors are founding team members of a new effort to develop an Open Energy Outlook for the United States. The effort aims to apply best practices of policy-focused energy system modeling, ensure transparency, build a networked community, and work toward a common purpose: examining possible US energy system futures to inform energy and climate policy efforts. Individual author biographies can be found on the project website: https://openenergyoutlook.org/.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multi-agent voltage control in distribution systems using GAN-DRL-based approach

Active distribution grids can experience voltage fluctuations and violations due to the high penetration of variable distributed energy resources (DERs). These problems might occur because of the uncertain and variable generation natures of these resources, especially solar photovoltaic resources, during panel shadowing scenarios. Volt-VAR control (VVC) is an efficient method that controls the reactive power set-points of the inverters to regulate the voltage of distribution grids. Although several VVC approaches have been proposed recently, the performance of these approaches degrades significantly if behind-the-meter solar generation data are unobservable/missing. Therefore, it is necessary to impute missing/unobservable PV data accurately to be utilized in VVC approaches. Further, this paper proposes a model-free, data-driven, centrally trained, and decentrally executed multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based VVC architecture to regulate the voltage of distribution networks. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is incorporated to impute the unobservable PV data accurately, which improves the performance of the proposed control architecture. The proposed multi-agent-soft-actor–critic algorithm (MASAC)-based VVC technique utilizes the actual PV dataset as well as the imputed dataset from the GAN framework to learn the optimal coordinated control policy for controlling the optimal reactive power set-points of PV inverters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is analyzed on a modified IEEE 34-bus test case with added PV inverters. The results are compared and analyzed with a base case model with no VVC and VVC with a local droop control approach, genetic algorithm optimization, and a centralized soft actor–critic-based approach. Moreover, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with that of a multi-agent VVC framework without using the PV generation data and load information as the system state. The results illustrate that the proposed method with more state input improves the voltage profile and reduces the power loss of the network across various loading and PV generation scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Concurrent Optimization of Capital Cost and Expected O&M

Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies can utilize heat from concentrated sunlight from a field of tracking mirrors to generate electricity, reform fuel, provide process heat, or augment fossil plant heat sources. Electricity-generating power tower systems focus light from thousands of independent heliostats onto a thermal receiver, which uses the focused light to warm a heat transfer fluid (HTF), typically, a molten nitrate salt. The HTF is then sent to a power generation cycle or diverted into thermal energy storage (TES) for later use. Thermal storage is – in principle – a straightforward proposition. However, optimal utilization of a TES resource is complex and multi-faceted: thermal energy may be dispatched to produce electricity immediately upon first availability, or thermal energy may be reserved for next-day peak periods at risk of filling storage and dumping energy, or a portion of the thermal energy can be reserved to maintain equipment temperatures, reducing power cycle startup time, etc. Many possible dispatch permutations variously emphasize producing peak power, operating through transients, expediting daily startup, etc. The best operation strategy can change day-to-day throughout the year, depending on the weather and market pricing forecasts. The project we describe in this report develops a software package that allows users to explore design optimization, operations decisions, and performance characterization of concentrating solar power tower plants. Users interface with the tool through a scripting language, and results are reported in time series tables, plots, runtime logs, and design outputs. Users choose from a list of variables such as tower height, solar multiple, design-point irradiance, thermal storage size, etc., and specify information about the system using a list of parameters. The software can then optimize the specified variables to reduce the cost of energy produced by the system while meeting certain production requirements, accounting for uncertain weather and electricity price forecasts, and correcting for equipment failures or repair time. The software we develop is the first comprehensive design tool of its kind to incorporate all of these aspects while being deployed as open source.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fossil group origins

Aims: We analyse the large-scale structure out to 100 Mpc around a sample of 16 confirmed fossil systems using spectroscopic information from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16. Methods: We computed the distance between our fossil groups (FGs) and the centres of filaments and nodes from the literature. We also studied the density of bright galaxies, since this parameter is thought to be a good mass tracers, as well as the projected over-densities of galaxies. Finally, we applied a friends-of-friends (FoF) algorithm to detect virialised structures around our FGs and obtain an estimate of the mass available in their surroundings. Results: We find that FGs are mainly located close to filaments, with a mean distance of 3.7 ± 1.1 R 200 and a minimum distance of 0.05 R 200 . On the other hand, none of our FGs were found close to intersections, with a mean and minimum distance of 19.3 ± 3.6 and 6.1 R 200 , respectively. There is a correlation that indicates FGs at higher redshifts are found in denser regions, when we use bright galaxies as tracers of the mass. At the same time, FGs with the largest magnitude gaps (Δm 12 > 2.5) are found in less dense environments and tend to host (on average) smaller central galaxies. Conclusions: Our results suggest that FGs formed in a peculiar position within the cosmic web, close to filaments and far from nodes, whereby their interaction with the cosmic web itself may be limited. We deduce that FGs with brightest central galaxies (BCGs) that are relatively faint, high values of Δm 12 , and low redshifts could, in fact, be systems that are at the very last stage of their evolution. Moreover, we confirm theoretical predictions that systems with the largest magnitude gap are not massive.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Lignocellulosic Biomass from Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry Data

High-throughput analysis of biomass is necessary to ensure consistent and uniform feedstocks for agricultural and bioenergy applications and is needed to inform genomics and systems biology models. Pyrolysis followed by mass spectrometry such as molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) analyses are becoming increasingly popular for the rapid analysis of biomass cell wall composition and typically require the use of different data analysis tools depending on the need and application. Here, the authors report the py-MBMS analysis of several types of lignocellulosic biomass to gain an understanding of spectral patterns and variation with associated biomass composition and use machine learning approaches to classify, differentiate, and predict biomass types on the basis of py-MBMS spectra. Py-MBMS spectra were also corrected for instrumental variance using generalized linear modeling (GLM) based on the use of select ions relative abundances as spike-in controls. Machine learning classification algorithms e.g., random forest, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, gradient boosting, and multilayer perceptron classifiers were used. The k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classifier generally performed the best for classifications using raw spectral data, and the decision tree classifier performed the worst. After normalization of spectra to account for instrumental variance, all the classifiers had comparable and generally acceptable performance for predicting the biomass types, although the k-NN and decision tree classifiers were not as accurate for prediction of specific sample types. Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) classifiers performed better than the k-NN and the decision tree classifiers for the prediction of biomass mixtures. The data analysis workflow reported here could be applied and extended for comparison of biomass samples of varying types, species, phenotypes, and/or genotypes or subjected to different treatments, environments, etc. to further elucidate the sources of spectral variance, patterns, and to infer compositional information based on spectral analysis, particularly for analysis of data without a priori knowledge of the feedstock composition or identity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ARCADE Analysis Methods & Validation Pathway

The Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) provides an automated analysis system which supports risk-informed performance based (RIPB) evaluations of nuclear control systems. Every possible cyber threat which could lead to consequence is identified by simulating the unsafe control action sequences which transform digital harm into physical harm. Eliminating the simulation of complex digital cyber attack chains cuts out unnecessary computational overhead and focuses directly on the physics of cyber-physical attacks. This focus enables designers to make informed decisions which can entirely eliminate categories of cyber threats against advanced reactors through the physical nature of the plant design. This narrowing of cyber threat against nuclear power plants through the physics of the system is intended to make any remaining threat management and cost efficient. This is the goal of the Tiered Cyber Analysis (TCA) outlined in NRC Draft Regulation Guide (RG) 5.96, which provides a RIPB cybersecurity approach for new reactors. ARCADE has been custom developed to meet the demands of the rigorous analysis required in Tier 1 of the TCA, which forms the foundation of the TCA process. Currently, ARCADE is still under development, but has made significant leaps in capability. A pilot analysis on the opensource Asherah simulator was performed which demonstrated key functionality goals. The next stage of ARCADE development involves improvements to the applications which support the analysis system, and enabling the analysis system to utilize the full suite of unsafe control action simulations. Since the analysis method’s core functions are complete, validation of the analysis method will be started concurrent to the next development stages. The automated analysis ARCADE will provide can radically change the cybersecurity design process for advanced reactors, reducing the cost of security implementation while enhancing cyber resilience. The pathway for ARCADE’s development to this goal has become much clearer. The majority of technical hurdles have been cleared, and the remaining development needs have been solidified. ARCADE is now capable of assisting the advanced reactor design process and directly support advanced reactor industry RIPB practices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of Integrated Safety and Security Models for Comprehensive Reliability and Resiliency Evaluation

The security of the electric grid and supporting energy systems is crucial to national security. One of the complexities in analyzing the security of energy systems is the safety consequences that may result from accidents. For energy systems, the goal is to ensure that they operate as intended and that any consequences are mitigated or prevented. The integration of safety and security is paramount to protecting these systems from attacks and ensuring that large consequences are prevented. This report describes an integrated safety and security methodology to evaluate cybersecurity events that can lead to large consequences. This novel approach first describes how Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) provides a digital causal analysis for Bayesian Networks (BNs). The use of STPA causal analysis provides a systematic approach to constructing BNs that adequately model cyber scenarios that result in consequences. When combined with the technical principles described in Risk-Informed Management of Enterprise Systems (RIMES), a comprehensive risk-informed cybersecurity analysis results that allows decision-makers to prioritize systems that most impact risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A note on minimizing time assurance tests for repairable systems

We consider assurance testing for repairable systems when supplementary information is available in addition to the data collected in the assurance test. Here, the supplementary information is incorporated using a Bayesian inferential framework. Here we consider assurance testing for a homogeneous Poisson process. In this note we consider an alternative criterion that minimizes the test time while ensuring that the requirements on the producer's and consumer's risks are met. We illustrate the use of this alternative criterion with an example.

42 ENGINEERING↗

From smart homes to smart laboratories: connected instruments for materials science

The current focus on artificial intelligence and machine learning in the scientific community has the potential to greatly speed up discovery. In this article, we explore what a “smart facility” would mean for materials science. We propose to capture meta-data at every step of an experiment, including materials synthesis, sample production and characterization, simulation, and the analysis software used to extract information. Although most of this information is captured in various institutional systems and staff logbooks, more insight could be obtained by connecting this information through a system that allows automation. AI-enabled processes built on such a system would have the potential of making experiment planning easier and minimize the time between experiment and publication.

Doucet, Mathieu↗

The Simons Observatory: Magnetic Shielding Measurements for the Universal Multiplexing Module

The Simons Observatory (SO) includes four telescopes that will measure the temperature and polarization of the cosmic microwave background using over 60,000 highly sensitive transition-edge bolometers (TES). These multichroic TES bolometers are read out by a microwave RF SQUID multiplexing system with a multiplexing factor of 910. Given that both TESes and SQUIDs are susceptible to magnetic field pickup and that it is hard to predict how they will respond to such fields, it is important to characterize the magnetic response of these systems empirically. This information can then be used to limit spurious signals by informing magnetic shielding designs for the detectors and readout. This paper focuses on measurements of magnetic pickup with different magnetic shielding configurations for the SO universal multiplexing module (UMM), which contains the SQUIDs, associated resonators, and TES bias circuit. The magnetic pickup of a prototype UMM was tested under three shielding configurations: no shielding (copper packaging), aluminum packaging for the UMM, and a tin/lead-plated shield surrounding the entire dilution refrigerator 100 mK cold stage. We also present measurements of the pickup in the UMM when aluminum feedhorns are installed. The measurements show that the aluminum packaging outperforms the copper packaging by a shielding factor of 8-10, and adding the tin/lead-plated 1K shield further increases the relative shielding factor in the aluminum configuration by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the addition of feedhorns provides a factor of 30 improvement when the tin/lead shield is not installed and a factor of 5 improvement when it is.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluation of Extreme Weather Impacts on Utility-scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance in the United States

The global energy system is undergoing significant changes, including a shift in energy generating technologies to more renewable energy sources. However, the dependence of renewable energy sources on local environmental conditions could also increase disruptions in service through exposures to compound, extreme weather events. By fusing three diverse datasets (operations and maintenance tickets, weather data, and production data), this analysis presents a novel methodology to identify and evaluate performance impacts arising from extreme weather events across diverse geographical regions. Text analysis of maintenance tickets identified snow, hurricanes, and storms as the leading extreme weather events affecting photovoltaic plants in the United States. Statistical techniques and machine learning were then implemented to identify the magnitude and variability of these extreme weather impacts on site performance. Impacts varied between event and non-event days, with snow events causing the greatest reductions in performance (54.5%), followed by hurricanes (12.6%) and storms (1.1%). Machine learning analysis identified key features in determining if a day is categorized as low performing, such as low irradiance, geographic location, weather features, and site size. The analysis improves our understanding of compound, extreme weather event impacts on photovoltaic systems, which can inform planning activities, especially as the industry continues to expand into new geographic and climatic regions around the world.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deformation accommodating periodic computational domain for a uniform velocity gradient

Many multiscale methods for granular materials use periodic computational domains to consider particle scale interactions and then calculate the stress to drive the continuum scale calculations. For problems involving large material deformations, the computation domain often needs to be reinitialized because of the distortion, causing the loss of the history information of the system. This work introduces an algorithm to accommodate a large deformation of the material while maintaining the computational domain cuboid to avoid the domain reinitialization during the computation. The algorithm uses a rotating frame of reference, in which the velocity gradient can be represented by an upper triangular matrix. The deformation caused by the upper triangular matrix is treated by the image system implied in the periodicity to maintain the computational domain cuboid. The effect from the rotation of the reference frame is considered using the inertial forces. Finally, simulations of simple and pure shear motions are carried out to illustrate the algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An analysis of alcohol compression ignition strategies on different engine platforms

Strategies that enable ignition of the low cetane alcohol fuels (methanol and ethanol) include intake heating (direct or via hot residual trapping), increased compression ratio (CR), multi-injection strategies, ignition enhancers, and active prechambers. The literature consistently shows alcohol compression ignition (CI) is more efficient than diesel at high loads irrespective of ignition strategy but shows contradictory results at low loads. To understand this, this work combines data from four different engine platforms ranging from a displaced volume of 0.4 to 2.1 L/cyl. using different alcohol CI ignition strategies. Using modeling to support experimental analysis, alcohol-specific efficiency penalties are highlighted to inform alcohol combustion system development. The alcohols’ lower energy density means more fuel must be injected near top dead center to achieve a given load, increasing the relative penalty of sensible/latent heating. Pilot injections help reduce this penalty. Intake heating incurs both a heat transfer penalty and a thermodynamic penalty due to a reduced ratio of specific heats during compression. A strategy that combines elevated CR, large pilot injections, and ignition enhancers can avoid this penalty. Alternatively, a prechamber strategy can achieve this without changing the CR, nor needing ignition enhancers in the fuel. At low loads, diesel burns in a partially premixed mode characterized by high burn rates and low heat losses, reducing alcohol-specific combustion benefits. Alcohol CI on the light-duty platform showed abnormally high heat transfer over diesel compared to other platforms, favoring a more premixed/partially premixed strategy despite a combustion efficiency tradeoff.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Predicting runtime and resource utilization of jobs on integrated cloud and HPC systems

Recent advances in virtualization technologies used in cloud computing offer performance that closely approaches bare-metal levels. Combined with specialized instance types and high-speed networking services for cluster computing, cloud platforms have become a compelling option for high-performance computing (HPC). However, most current batch job schedulers in HPC systems are designed for homogeneous clusters and make decisions based on limited information about jobs and system status. Scientists typically submit computational jobs to these schedulers with a requested runtime that is often over- or under-estimated. More accurate runtime predictions can help schedulers make better decisions and reduce job turnaround times. Here, they can also support decisions about migrating jobs to the cloud to avoid long queue wait times in HPC systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulation of anoxic lenses as exporters of reactivity in alluvial aquifer sediments

Sedimentary interfaces between contrasting hydrogeological facies in alluvial aquifers drive the development of biogeochemical interfaces that influence subsurface and surface water quality. Here, we calibrate a reactive transport model on a series of dual-domain column experiments, where centimeter-scale, low-permeability, organic-rich anoxic lenses are embedded in coarser-grained aquifer material. Simulations explicitly account for C, Fe, and S cycling at the interface between the lenses and the aquifer in water-saturated conditions. Our results highlight the role of fine-grained, organic-rich inclusions not only as sources or sinks for redox-sensitive species, but also as exporters of nutrients that stimulate downgradient biogeochemical cycling. By releasing large amounts of organic carbon into the surrounding aquifer, such lenses drive the development of proximal secondary reduction zones ("halos"), characterized by high microbial activity (e.g., sulfate reduction) and accumulation of reduced reaction products (e.g., iron sulfide). If similar secondary reduction zones develop within the hydraulically conductive domain of an aquifer, they would be highly susceptible to changes in hydrologic conditions, for instance oxygen pulses associated with seasonal snowmelt. Furthermore, our results also emphasize the limitations of relying solely on aqueous species measurements to inform reactivity in systems where fast redox cycling and/or sizeable particulate transport may limit the signature of reactivity in the dissolved phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of fission gas diffusion and release for Gd 2 O 3 doped UO 2

Uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) is the primary nuclear fuel in light water reactors, and its excess neutronic reactivity can be controlled by adding burnable absorbers, such as Gd 2 O 3 . This burnable absorber has a large neutron absorption cross-section, lowering the high reactivity of the reactor's initial fuel load. However, there needs to be more understanding of how added Gd 2 O 3 influences the properties of UO 2 under irradiation. To understand the behavior of defects and fission gas in the UO 2 /Gd 2 O 3 system under irradiation, we use cluster dynamics modeling supported by density functional theory calculations. First, we calculate the formation energies of Gd point and cluster defects, and evaluate the temperature-dependent defect concentrations using the defect formation energies and entropies. We show that Gd is soluble in UO 2 , introducing a negative charge in the system. Using this information, we adapted the cluster dynamics code Centipede to model the influence of Gd on U self-diffusion and Xe diffusion in UO 2 with 10 wt% Gd 2 O 3 . Also, we analyzed the Xe diffusion as a function of Gd 2 O 3 concentration, showing that the Xe diffusivity is decreased, which means that the athermal diffusivity due to electronic stopping persists at higher temperatures. In conclusion, the decrease in Xe diffusion means that more Xe stays in the matrix, decreasing the Xe release, and lowering its influence of fission gas release on the thermomechanical properties of UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy at liquid helium temperatures for quantum materials

Fundamental quantum phenomena in condensed matter, ranging from correlated electron systems to quantum information processors, manifest their emergent characteristics and behaviors predominantly at low temperatures. This necessitates the use of liquid helium (LHe) cooling for experimental observation. Atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy combined with LHe cooling (cryo-STEM) provides a powerful characterization technique to probe local atomic structural modulations and their coupling with charge, spin and orbital degrees-of-freedom in quantum materials. However, achieving atomic resolution in cryo-STEM is exceptionally challenging, primarily due to sample drifts arising from temperature changes and noises associated with LHe bubbling, turbulent gas flow, etc. In this work, we demonstrate atomic resolution cryo-STEM imaging at LHe temperatures using a commercial side-entry LHe cooling holder. Firstly, we examine STEM imaging performance as a function of He gas flow rate, identifying two primary noise sources: He-gas pulsing and He-gas bubbling. Secondly, we propose two strategies to achieve low noise conditions for atomic resolution STEM imaging: either by temporarily suppressing He gas flow rate using the needle valve or by acquiring images during the natural warming process. Lastly, we show the applications of image acquisition methods and image processing techniques in investigating structural phase transitions in Cr 2 Ge 2 Te 6 , CuIr 2 S 4 , and CrCl 3 . In conclusion, our findings represent an advance in the field of atomic resolution electron microscopy imaging for quantum materials and devices at LHe temperatures, which can be applied to other commercial side-entry LHe cooling TEM holders.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗