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At least 757 records · Page 42

Using Machine Learning Tools to Predict Compressor Stall

Clean energy has become an increasingly important consideration in today’s power systems. As the push for clean energy continues, many coal-fired power plants are being decommissioned in favor of renewable power sources such as wind and solar. However, the intermittent nature of renewables means that dynamic load following traditional power systems is crucial to grid stability. With high flexibility and fast response at a wide range of operating conditions, gas turbine systems are poised to become the main load following component in the power grid. Yet, rapid changes in load can lead to fluid flow instabilities in gas turbine power systems. These instabilities often lead to compressor surge and stall, which are some of the most critical problems facing the safe and efficient operation of compressors in turbomachinery today. Although the topic of compressor surge and stall has been extensively researched, no methods for early prediction have been proven effective. This study explores the utilization of machine learning tools to predict compressor stall. The long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a form of recurrent neural network (RNN), was trained using real compressor stall datasets from a 100 kW recuperated gas turbine power system designed for hybrid configuration. Two variations of the LSTM model, classification and regression, were tested to determine optimal performance. The regression scheme was determined to be the most accurate approach, and a tool for predicting compressor stall was developed using this configuration. Overall, results show that the tool is capable of predicting stalls 5–20 ms before they occur. With a high-speed controller capable of 5 ms time-steps, mitigating action could be taken to prevent compressor stall before it occurs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification

Micro- and mild-hybridization (jointly labeled as M-HEV) is gaining popularity as a cost-effective technology for fuel economy improvement, but whether and how M-HEV may compete against less efficient conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), more efficient full hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is not well understood. As such, this study aims at evaluating the impact of the market adoption of M-HEV on the average fuel economy of the new vehicle fleet and on the sales share of PEVs. The study reviews recent sales trends and market forecasts, and uses published estimates of manufacturing cost and fuel economy of M-HEV with an existing discrete choice model (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies or MA3T) to project the market penetration and impacts of M-HEV under different scenarios of M-HEV choice positions, designed to enhance conclusion robustness. It is found that among engine-based powertrain choices, micro-HEV appears to be the most cost-effective, followed by ICEVs, mild-HEV and finally full HEVs. M-HEV technologies are likely to improve fleetwide average fuel economy without significant adverse effects on sales of plug-in electric vehicles, and are likely to remain highly competitive outside PEVs through 2050.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Automated power-following control for nuclear thermal propulsion startup and shutdown using MOOSE-based applications

This paper describes an investigation of various automated control strategies applied to a full-core multiphysics Griffin/Bison/RELAP-7 model of a prototypical nuclear thermal propulsion system. In all cases, control is achieved by actuating control drums based on the demanded power and predicted quantities from the numerical model. One key finding is that hybrid proportional integral derivative controllers – a novel type of controller that uses both power and reactivity predicted signals – can demonstrate a level of performance rivaling that of period-generated control. The former requires parameter tuning, while the latter mostly necessitates providing reactivity coefficients and temperature rates of change, which could be very challenging to accurately measure in real-time. In addition, decay heat plays an important role in determining cooling requirements during cooldown phases. A decay heat model, accounting for burn time and throttling, was derived, and is incorporated within the model to simulate the steady-state and shutdown phases and satisfyingly follow the power demand. However, temperature overshoots and non-constant specific impulse during throttling will necessitate further improvements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

$\mathcal{g}$ modes of neutron stars with hadron-to-quark crossover transitions

Here we perform the first study of the principal core g-mode oscillation in hybrid stars containing quark matter, utilizing a crossover model for the hadron-to-quark transition inspired by lattice QCD. The ensuing results are compared with our recent findings of g-mode frequencies in hybrid stars with a first-order phase transition using Gibbs constructions. We find that models using Gibbs construction yield g-mode amplitudes and the associated gravitational energy radiated that dominate over those of the chosen crossover model owing to the distinct behaviors of the equilibrium and adiabatic sound speeds in the various models. Based on our results, we conclude that were g modes to be detected in upgraded LIGO and Virgo detectors it would indicate a first-order phase transition akin to a Gibbs construction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

HybridSystemsSimulations.jl - Solving the Merchant Collocated Facilities with JuMP

The development of new clean-generation technologies also leads to new plant-level architectures that combine several generation and storage assets behind the point of connection. These co-located generation resources (Hybrid Systems) primarily operate as merchant assets that employ automated market bidding models and internal Energy Management Systems (EMS) to comply with the operator's signals. Formulating an optimal bidding model requires embedding the EMS control model into the bidding algorithm, resulting in a bi-level optimization problem. In this presentation, we first showcase using JuMP to formulate and solve this problem effectively for multiple merchant systems and the bidding outcomes considering different model formulations. Second, the bidding outcomes are later integrated into a PowerSimulations.jl (also built with JuMP) simulation to study the system-level effects of the various merchant bidding and the interactions between market-clearing models and the embedded EMS model. We will showcase simulations conducted in the RTS system considering different levels of merchant hybrid systems participation. The presentation provides the following specific insights on JuMP usage: 1) the Formulation of specialized bi-level problems with custom cuts to solve the merchant hybrid system bidding problem; 2) the integration of a modular model within a complex simulation workflow supported by JuMP in PowerSimulations.jl; 3) Accelerating the solution of power systems operations simulation that employ agent optimization problems using JuMP.

energy markets↗

Safeguards-Informed Hybrid Imagery Dataset [Poster]

Deep Learning computer vision models require many thousands of properly labelled images for training, which is especially challenging for safeguards and nonproliferation, given that safeguards-relevant images are typically rare due to the sensitivity and limited availability of the technologies. Creating relevant images through real-world staging is costly and limiting in scope. Expert-labeling is expensive, time consuming, and error prone. We aim to develop a data set of both realworld and synthetic images that are relevant to the nuclear safeguards domain that can be used to support multiple data science research questions. In the process of developing this data, we aim to develop a novel workflow to validate synthetic images using machine learning explainability methods, testing among multiple computer vision algorithms, and iterative synthetic data rendering. We will deliver one million images – both real-world and synthetically rendered – of two types uranium storage and transportation containers with labelled ground truth and associated adversarial examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

A Hybrid Bulk Algorithm to Predict Turbulent Fluxes over Dry and Wet Bare Soils

Measurements made in the Columbia River basin (Oregon) in an area of irregular terrain during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign are used to develop an optimized hybrid bulk algorithm to predict the surface turbulent fluxes from readily measured or modeled quantities over dry and wet bare or lightly vegetated soil surfaces. The hybrid (synthetic) algorithm combines (i) an aerodynamic method for turbulent flow, which is based on the transfer coefficients (drag coefficient and Stanton number), roughness lengths, and Monin–Obukhov similarity; and (ii) a modified Priestley–Taylor (P-T) algorithm with physically based ecophysiological constraints, which is essentially based on the surface energy budget (SEB) equation. Soil heat flux in the latter case was estimated from measurements of soil temperature and soil moisture. In the framework of the hybrid algorithm, bulk estimates of the momentum flux and the sensible heat flux are derived from a traditional aerodynamic approach, whereas the latent heat flux (or moisture flux) is evaluated from a modified P-T model. Direct measurements of the surface fluxes (turbulent and radiative) and other ancillary atmospheric/soil parameters made during WFIP2 for different soil conditions (dry and wet) are used to optimize and tune the hybrid bulk algorithm. The bulk flux estimates are validated against the measured eddy-covariance fluxes. We also discuss the SEB closure over dry and wet surfaces at various time scales based on the modeled and measured fluxes. Although this bulk flux algorithm is optimized for the data collected during the WFIP2, a hybrid approach can be used for similar flux-tower sites and field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent Advances for Improving the Accuracy, Transferability, and Efficiency of Reactive Force Fields

Reactive force fields provide an affordable model for simulating chemical reactions at a fraction of the cost of quantum mechanical approaches. However, classically accounting for chemical reactivity often comes at the expense of accuracy and transferability, while computational cost is still large relative to nonreactive force fields. Here, we summarize recent efforts for improving the performance of reactive force fields in these three areas with a focus on the ReaxFF theoretical model. To improve accuracy, we describe recent reformulations of charge equilibration schemes to overcome unphysical long-range charge transfer, new ReaxFF models that account for explicit electrons, and corrections for energy conservation issues of the ReaxFF model. To enhance transferability we also highlight new advances to include explicit treatment of electrons in the ReaxFF and hybrid nonreactive/reactive simulations that make it possible to model charge transfer, redox chemistry, and large systems such as reverse micelles within the framework of a reactive force field. To address the computational cost, we review recent work in extended Lagrangian schemes and matrix preconditioners for accelerating the charge equilibration method component of ReaxFF and improvements in its software performance in LAMMPS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimizing the physical design and layout of a resilient wind, solar, and storage hybrid power plant

We report as wind and solar technologies improve and their costs decrease, the share of power produced by these sources will increase. As the market penetration increases, these power sources will need to provide grid services, such as dispatchability, in addition to providing energy. One way to reduce variability, provide higher quality power to the grid, and address local grid stability issues is through colocating wind and solar power plants. In addition to operating reliably during normal operating conditions, in scenarios with high penetrations of renewable generation, it is important that these hybrid plants can withstand production disruptions and continue to supply power despite prolonged resource reduction, extreme weather events, or other disruptions. In this paper, we present a methodology to optimize a wind-solar-battery hybrid power plant down to the component level that is resilient against production disruptions and that can continually produce some minimum required power. We introduce the models and assumptions we used to simulate a hybrid power plant as well as the design variable parameterization and specific methods we used to optimize the plant. We demonstrate the performance of our method by comparing a plant optimized for different objectives, generation outage durations, minimum power requirements, and power purchase agreements. Although the plant design is sensitive to model parameters and various other assumptions, our results demonstrate some of the optimal designs that occur in different scenarios and what one should expect when designing a hybrid wind-solar-storage power plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment and validation of NEAMS tools for high-fidelity multiphysics transient modeling of microreactors: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team aims at providing assessment of code useability and functionality for microreactor design and analyses, together with demonstration of their capabilities to properly capture the steady-state and time-dependent behavior of different microreactor concepts. In FY-24, significant progress was achieved in improving multi-physics models of several microreactors systems: HP-MR, GC-MR and KRUSTY. These efforts focused on solving more complex multiphysics problems enabled by enhanced tools capability, verifying and validating results obtained, providing feedback to developers for suggested improvements, and sharing these models to facilitate user training. A series of new multiphysics transients were completed on the HP-MR (using Griffin/BISON/Sockeye) with core startup transient, control drum inadvertent rotation accident, and hydrogen leakage from hydride moderator (also including SWIFT). On the GC-MR, a new full-core model was developed and analyzed through a series of new multiphysics (Griffin/BISON/SAM) transients to simulate moderator leakage (also including SWIFT), flow blockage and coolant depressurization. Additional and updated TRISO failure analyses were completed on the HP-MR unit-cell and GC-MR assembly models leveraging improved TRISO modeling capabilities. The amount of SiC failure following accidental transients at end-of-life was null. However, GC-MR assembly TRISO analysis highlighted Pd penetration rate can be problematic and may require design changes on the studied microreactor concept. The neutronics discrepancies observed on the KRUSTY model in previous years were resolved using hybrid set of Monte Carlo/Deterministic cross-sections. The multiphysics (Griffin neutronics / BISON thermal-mechanics) 15₵ insertion transient simulation displayed good agreement when comparing with experimental data. Initial modeling of the 30 ₵ reactivity insertion also displays promising results. Such close agreement provides important validation data that can be leveraged by the NEAMS program and by microreactor vendors to support licensing of their technology. Finally, important experience was gathered with the NEAMS tools leading to several user feedback shared with tools developers, especially with regards to MOOSE mesh generator and Griffin. This project led to many publications demonstrating modeling capabilities, and to three models shared on the Virtual Test Bed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Physically realistic, parametric model for excitonic critical point parabolic band oscillators

Critical point parabolic band (CPPB) oscillators are often useful to model the optical response of semiconductor materials, such as hybrid organic–inorganic lead halide-based perovskites, to incident photons in the form of the complex dielectric function (ε=ε1+iε2) spectra. Some models of ε using CPPB oscillators are not guaranteed Kramers–Kronig (KK) consistent (and therefore not physically realistic), may have excess or arbitrary parameter values, or may require prohibitively long computational time when used to fit ellipsometric spectra. For excitonic CPPBs, commonly used to describe the optical response of hybrid organic–inorganic lead halide-based perovskite materials, a physically realistic, parametric model of ε is developed from the KK relationship between ε1 and ε2 for a number of CPPB oscillators with an Urbach tail below the lowest direct transition. This parametric model is shown to produce the same line shape reported from previous works accurately and more quickly than other available KK-consistent CPPB models.

Physics↗

Understanding Economic and Deployment Benefits of Wind-PV Hybrid Power Plants

The least-cost approach to decarbonizing the U.S. electricity supply will likely involve a significantly expanded share of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation. Many strategies and approaches have been identified to address integration challenges in a VRE-dominated system, including standalone and coupled battery systems. In this study, we explored the current and future potential of utility-scale hybrid energy systems comprising PV, wind, and lithium-ion battery technologies (PV-wind-battery systems). Analysis results include temporal complementarity of wind and PV resources across the contiguous United States, with an emphasis on metrics that quantify reductions in variability that can be achieved through hybridization. We further use a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices to determine the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of PV-wind-battery configurations across Texas, from the present through 2050. We find that coupling PV, wind, and battery technologies allows for more effective utilization of interconnection capacity by increasing capacity factors to 60-80%+ and capacity credits to close to 100%, depending on battery capacity. We also compared the energy and capacity values of PV-wind and PV-wind-battery systems to the corresponding stability coefficient metric, which describes the location-and configuration-specific complementarity of PV and wind resources. Our results show that the stability coefficient effectively predicts the configuration-location combinations in which a smaller battery component can provide comparable economic performance in a PV-wind-battery system (compared to a PV-battery system). These PV-wind-battery hybrids can help integrate more VRE by providing smoother, more predictable generation and greater flexibility. Finally, capacity expansion modeling of PV-wind systems indicates that hybridization can reduce transmission expansion requirements associated with a heavily decarbonized U.S. electricity system.

complementarity↗

Accelerating computational modeling and design of high-entropy alloys

High-entropy alloys, with N elements and compositions {$c_{ν = 1,N}$} in competing crystal structures, have large design spaces for unique chemical and mechanical properties. In this work, to enable computational design, we use a metaheuristic hybrid Cuckoo search (CS) to construct alloy configurational models on the fly that have targeted atomic site and pair probabilities on arbitrary crystal lattices, given by supercell random approximates (SCRAPs) with S sites. Our Hybrid CS permits efficient global solutions for large, discrete combinatorial optimization that scale linearly in a number of parallel processors, and linearly in sites S for SCRAPs. For example, a four-element, 128-site SCRAP is found in seconds—a more than 13,000-fold reduction over current strategies. Our method thus enables computational alloy design that is currently impractical. We qualify the models and showcase application to real alloys with targeted atomic short-range order. Being problem-agnostic, our Hybrid CS offers potential applications in diverse fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flexible Reinforcement Learning Framework for Building Control using EnergyPlus-Modelica Energy Models

In recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) methods have been greatly enhanced by leveraging deep learning approaches. RL methods applied to building control have shown potential in many applications due to their ability to complement or replace conventional methods such as model-based or rule-based controls. However, RL-based building control software is likely tailored either to one target building system or to a specific RL method so that significant additional effort would be required to customize the RL-based controller for use in other building systems or with other RL approaches. Also, RL-based building controls usually depend on building energy simulations to train controllers, so emulating building dynamics (i.e., thermal dynamics and control dynamics) and capturing sub-hourly dynamic profiles are crucial to further the development of effective RL-based building control methods. To address these challenges, we present an open source RL-based control software employing a high-fidelity hybrid EnergyPlus-Modelica building energy model which emulates building dynamics at 1-minute resolution. This software consists of decoupled components (environment, building emulator, control agent, and RL algorithm), which allows for quick prototyping and benchmarking of standard RL algorithms in different systems; for example, a single component can be replaced without revising all of the software. To demonstrate this software framework, we conducted a benchmark study using an EnergyPlus-Modelica building energy model for a Chicago office building with an RL-based controller to dynamically control the chilled water temperature setpoint and the air handling unit supply air temperature setpoint on selected floors.

Lee, Joon-Yong↗

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhancing Power Grid Resilience with Causal Loops Diagram and Bayesian Networks

Enhancing power grid resilience through improved analysis and planning of Distributed Energy Resources is a key for power system planner. This paper explores the integration of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs) for enhancing resilience in power systems, focusing on Distributed Energy Resources (DER) planning. By automating CLD analysis in Python's matplotlib, we present a tool for rapid model validation and structural accuracy, crucial for power system planners. This hybrid approach utilizes BNs for inferential depth and CLDs for dynamic system modeling, offering a comprehensive framework for policy formulation and collaborative strategy development against disruptions. Here, we highlight the tool's capability to identify and analyze interconnected feedback loops, facilitating a deeper understanding of DER integration's impact on network resilience. This work aims to bridge quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, addressing the limitations of each method while providing a robust model for power system resilience assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integration and validation of some modules for modelling of high-speed chemically reactive flows in two-phase gas-droplet mixtures

Three modules are integrated into the built-in OpenFOAM rhoCentralFoam solver towards accurate and efficient modelling of high-speed chemically reactive flows in two-phase gas-droplet mixtures within the OpenFOAM 10.0 framework. The first module is the mixture-averaged diffusion model. The second module is the built-in OpenFOAM Lagrangian solver coupled with optimised droplet drag coefficient and convective heat transfer coefficient sub-models. The last module is a sparse stiff chemistry solver based on dynamic adaptive hybrid integration (AHI-S). The optimised droplet sub-models are first verified in correct implementation for subsequent simulations in this work. Further, they show good accuracy against experimental and analytical data in the modelling of ammonia droplet acceleration and cooling in the flowing and/or low-temperature air. The accuracy and efficiency gains related to the mixture-averaged diffusion model and the AHI-S chemistry solver are examined by simulating 1-D detonation propagation in ammonia droplet-free/laden ammoniaoxygen mixtures. Numerical results of detonation propagation speed, gaseous temperature, density, and species distributions around the induction zone show good agreement with experimental data and analytical solutions. Compared to the built-in OpenFOAM diffusion model, the mixture-averaged diffusion model provides different numerical predictions of pulsating instabilities in detonation propagation. It shows better accuracy in depicting the detonation structure within the droplet-free section attributed to improved multi-component diffusion modelling. Compared to the built-in OpenFOAM solver EulerImplicit (backward Euler), the AHI-S chemistry solver reduces the computational cost by around 50%. It achieves satisfactory accuracy in calculating detonation propagation speed within the droplet-free section with the optimal efficiency when the safety factor, β, equals 0.5.

42 ENGINEERING↗