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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The EIC accelerator: design highlights and project status

The design of the electron-ion collider (EIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory is well underway, aiming at a peak electron-proton luminosity of 10e+34 cm^-1·sec^-1. This high luminosity, the wide center-of-mass energy range from 29 to 141 GeV (e-p) and the high level of polarization require innovative solutions to maximize the performance of the machine, which makes the EIC one of the most challenging accelerator projects to date. The complexity of the EIC will be discussed, and the project status and plans will be presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

University of Miami G-band Vapor Radiometer Calibration (UMGVR_CAL) Field Campaign Report

Cold-air outbreak (CAO) clouds in the Arctic are commonly mixed-phase (MP); however, the partitioning of the amount of ice and water in CAO clouds and precipitation is not always well observed. Understanding how cloud phases partition as a function of cloud life cycle is important for predicting snowfall rates, convective life cycle, and intensity at weather timescales. The partitioning into liquid versus ice also has radiative impacts that are consequential for climate. These concerns motivated the incorporation of an airborne G-band vapor radiometer (GVR) into an National Science Foundation-supported aircraft campaign named the Cold Air outbreak Experiment in the Sub-Arctic Region (CAESAR). The GVR is an upward-pointing passive microwave radiometer using four frequencies centered around the 183.31 GHz water vapor absorption line, displaced by +- 1, 3, 7, and 14 GHz. For context, The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates a surface-based GVR at its North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site. The same GVR has been used previously for a field campaign in the southeast Pacific, where an offset was noticed between brightness temperatures (Tbs) measured under clear skies compared to those calculated from a radiative transfer model. To account for any calibration offsets to the Tbs, a request was made to DOE to allow the GVR to operate at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory and enable comparisons between its measurements and those available at SGP. This request was granted, titled ‘UMGVR_CAL’, short for ‘UMGVR_Calibration’. From October 30 to November 10, 2023, the GVR was deployed to the ARM SGP site to take advantage of their regular, nearby radiosonde launches under clear-sky conditions. The latter were determined using the SGP total sky imagery data. The GVR brightness temperatures in these clear-sky conditions were compared to those calculated by a radiative transfer code (PAMTRA) based on the SGP radiosondes. During the campaign, four suitable clear-sky episodes could be used for the GVR calibration. While few in number, these proved to be enough to satisfy our goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experiments on excitation of Alfvén eigenmodes by alpha-particles with bump-on-tail distribution in JET DTE2 plasmas

Dedicated experiments were performed in JET DTE2 plasmas for obtaining an α-particle bump-on-tail (BOT) distribution aiming at exciting Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). Neutral beam injection-only heating with modulated power was used so that fusion-born α-particles were the only ions present in the MeV energy range in these DT plasmas. The beam power modulation on a time scale shorter than the α-particle slowing down time was chosen for modulating the α-particle source and thus sustaining a BOT in the α-particle distribution. High-frequency modes in the toroidicity-induced Alfven eigenmode (TAE) frequency range and multiple short-lived modes in a wider frequency range have been detected in these DT discharges with interferometry, soft x-ray cameras, and reflectometry. The modes observed were localised close to the magnetic axis and were not seen in the Mirnov coils. Analysis with the TRANSP and Fokker-Planck FIDIT codes confirms that α-particle distributions with BOT in energy were achieved during some time intervals in these discharges though no clear correlation was found between the times of the high-frequency mode excitation and the BOT time intervals. The combined magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) and kinetic modelling studies show that the high-frequency mode in the TAE frequency range is best fitted with a TAE of toroidal mode number n= 9. This mode is driven mostly by the on-axis beam ions while the smaller drive due to the pressure gradient of α-particles allows overcoming the marginal stability and exciting the mode. The observed multiple short-lived modes in a wider frequency range are identified as the on-axis kinetic AEs predicted in Rosenbluth and Rutherford.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metrics and extrapolation of resonant magnetic perturbation thresholds for ELM suppression

This large database study of resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) edge localized mode (ELM) suppression thresholds in the AUG, DIII-D, EAST, and KSTAR tokamaks details the key strengths and weaknesses of RMP metrics. The RMP ELM suppression database used for this work contains plasma information at the time of transition from ELMing to ELM suppressed states where a clear experimental threshold is identified. The experimental threshold distributions are compared for five metrics: (1) the island overlap width, (2) pedestal top Chirikov overlap, (3) peeling edge displacement, (4) pedestal top resonant drive, and (5) edge dominant mode overlap. The distributions, the regularity of the dependence on RMP coil currents, and the sensitivities of a given metric to equilibrium reconstruction details are compared. The overlap metric proves to be a good compromise between including the appropriate plasma response physics and maintaining a numerical robustness. This quantity does not exhibit clear power-law scalings for projection, but machine learning can assist in predicting thresholds within the existing parameter ranges and providing uncertainty quantification of those predictions. Two new first-principles models, one utilizing a threshold from the non-linear Modified Rutherford equation evaluated at the pedestal top and one utilizing the SLAYER code to calculate the linear tearing threshold from torque balance, offer possible paths to extrapolation beyond the existing database parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temporal Study 2021-2022: Sample-Based Surface Water Chemistry and Organic Matter Characterization across Watersheds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v3)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of temporal variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides geochemistry and organic matter characterization data generated from samples collected at weekly or bi-weekly intervals at six sites across the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Related sensor data will be published separately and can be used to link sediment respiration rates to biogeochemical processing rates. The data package was originally published in November 2022. It was updated in November 2023 (v2; modified files) and April 2025 (new and modified files). See the change history section in readme for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC; reported as non-purgeable organic carbon; NPOC), total nitrogen (TN), total suspended solids (TSS), and ions; (5) averaged values from water chemistry data; (6) surface water sampling protocol; (7) sensor protocol; (8) readme; (9) methods codes; (10) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (11) folder of high resolution characterization of organic via 12 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory). This folder contains two subfolders, one containing the .xml data files and the other containing instructions for using Formularity (https://omics.pnl.gov/software/formularity) and an R script to process the data based on the user's specific needs. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .ref, or .xml. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected our data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Q1 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q1: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis: $/circ$ Initially run CESOL with SOLPS and map heat flux using simple HEAT method: ▪ Generate SOLPS grid for CAT reference case, ▪ Implement and apply ‘lower’ fidelity method of using HEAT-like analytic method to map SOLPS heat flux from charged particles to first wall, and ▪ Provide initial heat flux + neutron loading for further engineering analysis. 2. Demonstrate multiphysics magnet analysis: $/circ$ Demonstrate validation of the Elmer workflow by comparing induced stresses due to EM forces generated by TF coils using multiple codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Model Predictive Control to Improve Grid Resilience

The following article details a model predictive control (MPC) to improve grid resilience when faced with variable generation resources. This topic is of significant interest to utility power systems where distributed intermittent energy sources will increase significantly and be relied on for electric grid ancillary services. Previous work on MPCs has focused on narrowly targeted control applications such as improving electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure or reducing the cost of integrating Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) into the grid. In contrast, this article develops a comprehensive treatment of the construction of an MPC tailored to electric grids and then applies it integration of intermittent energy resources. To accomplish this, the following article includes a description of a reduced order model (ROM) of an electric power grid based on a circuit model, an optimization formulation that describes the MPC, a collocation method for solving linear time-dependent differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that result from the ROM, and an overall strategy for iteratively refining the behavior of the MPC. Next, the algorithm is validated using two separate numerical experiments. First, the algorithm is compared to an existing MPC code and the results are verified by a numerically precise simulation. It is shown that this algorithm produces a control comparable to existing algorithms and the behavior of the control carefully respects the bounds specified. Second, the MPC is applied to a small nine bus system that contains a mix of turbine-spinning-machine-based and intermittent generation in order to demonstrate the algorithm’s utility for resource planning and control of intermittent resources. This study demonstrates how the MPC can be tuned to change the behavior of the control, which can then assist with the integration of intermittent resources into the grid. The emphasis throughout the paper is to provide systematic treatment of the topic and produce a novel nonlinear control compatible design framework applicable to electric grids and the control of variable resources. This differs from the more targeted application-based focus in most presentations.

microgrid↗
DOE OSTI2023

Architector for high-throughput cross-periodic table 3D complex building

Abstract Rare-earth and actinide complexes are critical for a wealth of clean-energy applications. Three-dimensional (3D) structural generation and prediction for these organometallic systems remains a challenge, limiting opportunities for computational chemical discovery. Here, we introduce Architector , a high-throughput in-silico synthesis code for s-, p-, d-, and f-block mononuclear organometallic complexes capable of capturing nearly the full diversity of the known experimental chemical space. Beyond known chemical space, Architector performs in-silico design of new complexes including any chemically accessible metal-ligand combinations. Architector leverages metal-center symmetry, interatomic force fields, and tight binding methods to build many possible 3D conformers from minimal 2D inputs including metal oxidation and spin state. Over a set of more than 6,000 x-ray diffraction (XRD)-determined complexes spanning the periodic table, we demonstrate quantitative agreement between Architector-predicted and experimentally observed structures. Further, we demonstrate out-of-the box conformer generation and energetic rankings of non-minimum energy conformers produced from Architector , which are critical for exploring potential energy surfaces and training force fields. Overall, Architector represents a transformative step towards cross-periodic table computational design of metal complex chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Critical role of current-driven instabilities for ELMs in NSTX

The impact of different extended-magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) contributions on the stability thresholds of peeling-ballooning modes in ELMing and ELM-free plasmas in the spherical tokamak NSTX is investigated with the initial value code M3D-C1. We show that ELMing discharges in NSTX are limited by resistive current-driven peeling modes, whereas non-ELMing wide-pedestal H-mode discharges are located near the ideal pressure-driven ballooning threshold. It is demonstrated that extended-MHD can lead to more reliable edge stability predictions than existing ideal-MHD models. Resistive peeling-ballooning modes are found to exist well before the ideal stability threshold is met, and kink-peeling modes exhibit considerable sensitivity to plasma resistivity. Other effects not considered in ideal-MHD models affect PB modes in NSTX in a weaker way. Gyroviscous stress appears stabilizing such that the stability boundary lies closer to the experimental point. Equilibrium rotation can suppress ideal core modes and thus isolate edge modes. These results are important for the development of a predictive pedestal model for low-aspect ratio tokamaks.

pedestal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Screen-Covered Grooved Sodium Heat Pipes for Microreactor Applications

New nuclear reactor designs that incorporate heat pipes are being investigated for possible near-term deployment in terrestrial applications. Here, this study explores the use of screen-covered axially grooved sodium heat pipes and their applicability for providing heat removal for microreactors. A sodium working fluid is appropriate for microreactors operating in the 5 to 20 MW(thermal) range at approximately 650°C. HTPIPE, a legacy software code, was validated for the case of screen-covered grooves and used to perform steady-state analyses to determine the performance limits of a proposed heat pipe design. The performance limits of a sodium heat pipe with a screen-covered square grooved wick structure is compared to that of an equivalent heat pipe with an annular wick. In a horizontal orientation at an operating temperature of 650°C,the performance limits for the heat pipe with an annular wick configuration are 15% higher than for the screen-covered grooved wick. At operating temperatures below 777°C, the annular wick outperforms the screen-covered grooved wick, and at temperatures above 777°C, the screen-covered grooved wick outperforms the annular wick. However, the marginal performance gain at higher temperatures may not justify the use of heat pipes with a screen-covered grooved wick structure due to increased manufacturing costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stellar Populations in type Ia supernova host galaxies at intermediate-high redshift: Star formation and metallicity enrichment histories

ABSTRACT We present a summary of our project that studies galaxies hosting type Ia supernova (SN Ia) at different redshifts. We present Gran Telescopio de Canarias (GTC) optical spectroscopy of six SN Ia host galaxies at redshift z ∼ 0.4–0.5. They are joined to a set of SN Ia host galaxies at intermediate-high redshift, which include galaxies from surveys SDSS and COSMOS. The final sample, after a selection of galaxy spectra in terms of signal-to-noise and other characteristics, consists of 680 galaxies with redshift in the range 0.04 < z < 1. We perform an inverse stellar population synthesis with the code fado to estimate the star formation and enrichment histories of this set of galaxies, simultaneously obtaining their mean stellar age and metallicity and stellar mass. After analysing the correlations among these characteristics, we look for possible dependencies of the Hubble diagram residuals and supernova features (luminosity, colour and strength parameter) on these stellar parameters. We find that the Hubble residuals show a clear dependence on the stellar metallicity weighted by mass with a slope of −0.061 mag dex−1, when represented in logarithmic scale, log 〈ZM/Z⊙〉. This result supports our previous findings obtained from gas oxygen abundances for local and SDSS-survey galaxies. Comparing with other works from the literature that also use the stellar metallicity, we find a similar value, but with more precision and a better significance (2.08 versus ∼ 1.1), due to the higher number of objects and wider range of redshift of our sample.

Millán-Irigoyen, I. (ORCID:0000000341155140)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of fast-ion losses measured in MAST-U via infrared thermography and a Fast Ion Loss Detector

Fast-ion losses need to be monitored to avoid damage to plasma facing components. In existing experimental devices, the scintillator-based fast-ion loss detector (FILD) is the most advanced diagnostic for measuring fast-ion losses. However, FILDs provide only local information about the losses. Infrared (IR) thermography can be used as a complementary tool for more global monitoring of the deposition of fast-ion losses on the wall, at the expense of no velocity-space resolution. IR cameras measure the temperature of the plasma facing components. This measurement, determined by a combined effect of the thermal plasma, radiation, neutrons and fast-ion losses, can be decomposed to infer the fast-ion load on the tokamak wall. In this manuscript, a workflow to estimate fast-ion losses via IR thermography is applied to the MAST-U spherical tokamak, using a 1D approximation to extract the experimental heat flux on the FILD front face from IR data. To numerically estimate the different contributions to this total heat flux, the field-line tracing environment SMITER is used to calculate the thermal plasma contribution, the orbit-following Monte-Carlo code ASCOT to estimate the fast-ion losses, and bolometry measurements for the radiation. To validate the workflow, two discharges, L-mode plasmas with low MHD activity, were executed using on and off-axis beams, respectively. The experimentally and numerically estimated heat flux are of the same order of magnitude for the on-axis heated scenario, with a strong dependence of the estimated fast-ion losses contribution on the fit to the kinetic profiles used as input. This is also true for the off-axis heated scenario, where the total numerically estimated heat flux is 2.1 or 1.3 times higher than the maximum experimentally estimated heat flux, depending on the ASCOT input used.

FILD↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of spatially and temporally resolved electron density measurements for the assessment of radiation hydrodynamics simulations of laboratory X-ray photoionized plasmas

The photoionized plasma gas cell experiment is an established platform we use to make at-parameter (ξ > > 1 ergs cm s –1 ) measurements of plasma properties with application to high-energy astrophysical systems. We model the experiments with 1D radiation hydrodynamics simulations using the HELIOS-CR code to inform our understanding and assist in the interpretation of results. The simulations predict that the bulk of the plasma is in a quasi-uniform and hydrodynamically unperturbed state throughout the duration of the experiment. To evaluate this prediction, we introduced a photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) diagnostic to measure spatially and temporally resolved plasma electron density. The initial measurements were successful but had limitations that made model-data comparisons challenging. To address this, we re-designed the gas cell PDV diagnostic and doubled the number of measurement locations to sample across two thirds of the depth of the cell. We also present a comparison of the results from the upgraded PDV diagnostic to the HELIOS-CR simulations for the first time. As a result, the experimental data confirms the prediction of an unperturbed region in the bulk of the plasma but reveals discrepancies in the time evolution and spatial distribution of the simulated electron density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Core performance predictions in projected SPARC first-campaign plasmas with nonlinear CGYRO

This work characterizes the core transport physics of SPARC early-campaign plasmas using the PORTALS-CGYRO framework. Empirical modeling of SPARC plasmas with L-mode confinement indicates an ample window of breakeven (Q > 1) without the need of H-mode operation. Extensive modeling of multi-channel (electron energy, ion energy, and electron particle) flux-matched conditions with the nonlinear CGYRO code for turbulent transport coupled to the macroscopic plasma evolution using PORTALS reveals that the maximum fusion performance to be attained will be highly dependent on the near-edge pressure. Stiff core transport conditions are found, particularly when fusion gain approaches unity, and predicted density peaking is found to be in line with empirical databases of particle source-free H-modes. Impurity optimization is identified as a potential avenue to increase fusion performance while enabling core-edge integration. Extensive validation of the quasilinear TGLF model builds confidence in reduced-model predictions. The implications of projecting L-mode performance to high-performance and burning-plasma devices is discussed, together with the importance of predicting edge conditions.

Rodriguez-Fernandez, P. (ORCID:0000000273611131)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface Water Disinfection Byproducts and Organic Matter Characterization Data Associated with: “Disinfection byproducts formed during drinking water treatment reveal an export control point for dissolved organic matter in a subalpine headwater stream”

This dataset is associated with the publication “Disinfection byproducts formed during drinking water treatment reveal an export control point for dissolved organic matter in a subalpine headwater stream” published in Water Research X (Leonard et al. 2022; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2022.100144). The associated study analyzed temporal trends from the Town of Crested Butte water treatment facility and synoptic sampling at Coal Creek in Crested Butte, Colorado, US. This work demonstrates how drinking water quality archives combined with synoptic sampling and targeted analyses can be used to identify and understand export control points for dissolved organic matter. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) metadata and international geo-sample number (IGSN) mapping file; (4) dissolved organic carbon (DOC), ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nanometers (UV254), total nitrogen (TN), and specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA) data; (5) disinfection bioproduct formation potential (DBP-FP) data; (6) readme; (7) methods codes; (8) water collection protocol; (9) folder of high resolution characterization of organic matter via 12 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory); and (10) folder of excitation emissions matrix (EEM) spectra. The FTICR folder contains a file of DOC (measured as non-purgeable organic carbon; NPOC) used for FTICR sample preparation. The FTICR folder also contains three subfolders: one subfolder containing the raw .xml data files, one containing the processed data, and the other containing instructions for using Formularity (https://omics.pnl.gov/software/formularity) and an R script to process the data based on the user's specific needs. All files are .csv, .pdf, .dat, .R, .ref, or .xml

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations to Predict Oxidation in Heat Recovery Steam Generator Tubes

Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) are widely used across United States in combined cycle power plants to recover waste heat from the gas turbine (GT). HRSGs are used either to generate electricity or to produce process steam for industrial applications. The primary components of HRSG consists of a duct and a heat exchanger (HX). It is known across the power industry that the high temperature oxidation and ensuing exfoliation problem is a major cause for the damage of HX materials of HRSG. Alloys and/or coatings that can prevent or mitigate oxidation are very expensive, therefore they must be used or applied on the select regions of the HX tubes where the tendency of oxide formation is the highest. The main goal of this project is to identify such regions through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. Therefore, in this work, we developed a CFD framework using commercial code StarCCM+ for the prediction of the fluid flow and heat transfer in a HRSG and associated oxidation inside the tubes of the HX. The developed CFD framework was verified and validated with experimental data before deployment. We also developed an innovative method to model the effect of the fins on the heat transfer and the pressure drop using a porous media model (PMM) approach to keep the mesh size within reasonable limits. After validation, we performed high-fidelity CFD simulations of a real-scale HRSG using the PMM, with High Performance Computing (HPC) resources of ORNL. From the simulation results, we acquired oxide thickness maps for all the tubes of the select HX sections of HRSG prone to oxidation. These oxide maps can inform regions of the HX tubes that requires oxide-resistant coatings, thereby guiding engineers for cost-efficient manufacturing of the HX that can combat oxidation in HRSGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vip1 is a kinase and pyrophosphatase switch that regulates inositol diphosphate signaling

Inositol diphosphates (PP-IPs), also known as inositol pyrophosphates, are high-energy cellular signaling codes involved in nutrient and regulatory responses. We report that the evolutionarily conserved gene product, Vip1, possesses autonomous kinase and pyrophosphatase domains capable of synthesis and destruction of D-1 PP-IPs. Our studies provide atomic-resolution structures of the PP-IP products and unequivocally define that the Vip1 gene product is a highly selective 1-kinase and 1-pyrophosphatase enzyme whose activities arise through distinct active sites. Kinetic analyses of kinase and pyrophosphatase parameters are consistent with Vip1 evolving to modulate levels of 1-IP 7 and 1,5-IP 8 . Individual perturbations in kinase and pyrophosphatase activities in cells result in differential effects on vacuolar morphology and osmotic responses. Analogous to the dual-functional key energy metabolism regulator, phosphofructokinase 2, Vip1 is a kinase and pyrophosphatase switch whose 1-PP-IP products play an important role in a cellular adaptation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗