Weight estimating and forecasting of manned space systems during conceptual design Summary report
Weight estimating and forecasting of manned space systems during conceptual design - handbook
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Fundamental techniques of weight estimating and forecasting for advanced manned spacecraft and space stations
Fundamental techniques of weight estimating and forecasting for advanced manned spacecraft and space stations
Heineman, W., Jr.↗
Forecasting flare times from inferred magnetic fields
Solar flare forecasting based on statistical correlation to magnetic fields inferred from H alpha filtergrams
Lemmon, J. J.↗
The flare forecasting fiasco: Is everybody looking at the same sun?
The passionate dream of the oppressed solar flare forecaster is the scientific discovery of the cause, the energy source, and the observable antecedent conditions for the solar flare. This tunnel vision has had a profound and deleterious effect on the state-of-the-art. It has diverted attention from many promising approaches and relegated them to limbo. More importantly, it has actually inhibited the scientific search for the underlying physical mechanisms. Examples of neglected aspects of the problem cover the entire range from observing techniques and equipment to the availability and accuracy of the archived scientific data. A cursory inspection of this data leads to an obvious conclusion: there are at least two suns up there.
Ward, F. W., Jr.↗
Air Traffic Forecasting at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
Procedures for conducting air traffic forecasts with specific application to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey are discussed. The procedure relates air travel growth to detailed socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population rather than to aggregate economic data such as Gross National Product, personal income, and industrial production. Charts are presented to show the relationship between various selected characteristics and the use of air transportation facilities.
Augustine, J. G.↗
Technology forecasting for space communication: Executive summary
Technology forecasting was used to examine the possibility of transferring laser and radio frequency communication techniques to space communication.
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Semiannual forecast for government furnished materials pressurants/propellants for space shuttle orbiter program
A semi-annual forecast of Government Furnished Pressurants and Propellant, and GFM required to support the development, fabrication, production, and test of the space shuttle orbiter.
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Applications of satellite snow cover in computerized short-term streamflow forecasting
A procedure is described whereby the correlation between: (1) satellite derived snow-cover depletion and (2) residual snowpack water equivalent, can be used to update computerized residual flow forecasts for the Conejos River in southern Colorado.
Leaf, C. F.↗
The measurement of winds over the ocean from Skylab with application to measuring and forecasting typhoons and hurricanes
On Skylab, a combination microwave radar-radiometer (S193) made measurements in a tropical hurricane (AVA), a tropical storm, and various extratropical wind systems. The winds at each cell scanned by the instrument were determined by objective numerical analysis techniques. The measured radar backscatter is compared to the analyzed winds and shown to provide an accurate method for measuring winds from space. An operational version of the instrument on an orbiting satellite will be able to provide the kind of measurements in tropical cyclones available today only by expensive and dangerous aircraft reconnaissance. Additionally, the specifications of the wind field in the tropical boundary layer should contribute to improved accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts made with numerical weather predictions models currently being applied to the tropical atmosphere.
Cardone, V. J.↗
A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule
The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.
Delionback, L. M.↗
Wheat yield forecasts using LANDSAT data
Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.
Colwell, J. E.↗
Analysis of data systems requirements for global crop production forecasting in the 1985 time frame
Data systems concepts that would be needed to implement the objective of the global crop production forecasting in an orderly transition from experimental to operational status in the 1985 time frame were examined. Information needs of users were converted into data system requirements, and the influence of these requirements on the formulation of a conceptual data system was analyzed. Any potential problem areas in meeting these data system requirements were identified in an iterative process.
Downs, S. W.↗
National Severe Storms Forecast Center
The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.
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A study of forecast growth with a barotropic model of the atmosphere
A barotropic model of the atmosphere was used to test various sources of forecast error. These errors are classified as truncation error, physical error, or initial error. It was shown that growth patterns due to each category differ significantly. Initial errors were shown not to grow in a barotropic model contrary to reports of other studies which indicate that they basically do grow. Also, random initial errors were shown to decrease due to the filtering effect of the model itself. Results seem to indicate that instabilities are required for error growth, be they barotropic or baroclinic, and that random errors are not representative of true initial conditions.
Halberstam, I. M.↗
Global crop production forecasting: An analysis of the data system problems and their solutions
Data related problems in the acquisition and use of satellite data necessary for operational forecasting of global crop production are considered for the purpose of establishing a measurable baseline. For data acquisition the world was divided into 37 crop regions in 22 countries. These regions represent approximately 95 percent of the total world production of the selected crops of interest, i.e., wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. Targets were assigned to each region. Limited time periods during which data could be taken (windows) were assigned to each target. Each target was assigned to a cloud region. The DSDS was used to measure the success of obtaining data for each target during the specified windows for the regional cloud conditions and the specific alternatives being analyzed. The results of this study suggest several approaches for an operational system that will perform satisfactorily with two LANDSAT type satellites.
Neiers, J.↗
A forecast of broadcast satellite communications
This paper presents forecasts of likely changes in broadcast satellite technology, the technology of ground terminals, and the technology of terrestrial communications competitive with satellites. The impacts of these changes in technology are then assessed, using a cross-impact model of U.S. domestic telecommunications, to determine the consequences of various possible changes in communications satellite technology. These consequences are discussed in terms of various possible services, for households, businesses, and specialized customers, which might become economically viable as a result of improvements in satellite technology.
Martino, J. P.↗
A real-time subsynoptic, meso, and microscale severe storm forecast system
A system of differential equations is integrated numerically in space and time over several different matrices in an effort to simulate the atmospheric wave structures which organize severe local storms. Preliminary results with case studies indicate that dynamical fields produced by the numerical simulations can be translated into very fine scale space and time zones where severe storm forecast indices can be developed. These fine scale indices are now available in real-time when run on Langley's STAR 100 computer system.
Kaplan, M. L.↗
Time-continuous assimilation of remote-sounding data and its effect on weather forecasting
Methods were developed for the time-continuous assimilation of satellite-sounding temperature data: direct insertion method, asynoptic successive correction method, and local linear regression method. These methods were applied to DST-6 data from the operational and experimental temperature sounders aboard the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. Attention is given to a comparison of these methods and their effect on the accuracy of the initial states obtained, as well as the resulting forecasts generated from these initial states. The results suggest that (1) satellite-derived temperature data can have a modest though statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the 2-3 day range; (2) the impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available; and (3) the method of satellite-data assimilation can substantially influence the magnitude of the impact obtained for the same data.
Ghil, M.↗