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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Progenitor Stars of Observed Type IIP Supernovae

Abstract Type IIP supernovae (SNe IIP) are thought to originate from the explosion of massive stars >10M ⊙ . Their luminosity is primarily powered by the explosion energy and the radioactive decay energy of 56 Co, with the photosphere location regulated by hydrogen recombination. However, the physical connections between SNe IIP and their progenitor stars remain unclear. This paper presents a comprehensive study of SNe IIP and their progenitor stars by using the one-dimensional stellar evolution code,MESA. Our model grids consider the effects of stellar metallicity, mass, and rotation in the evolution of massive stars, as well as the explosion energy and 56 Ni production in modeling supernovae. To elucidate the observed SNe IIP and their origins, we compare their light curves (LCs) with our models. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of stellar parameters on LCs by considering stellar mass, metallicity, rotation, explosion energy, and 56 Ni production. We find that more massive stars exhibit longer plateaus due to increased photon diffusion time caused by massive ejecta. Higher metallicity leads to increased opacity and mass loss of progenitor stars. Rapid rotation affects internal stellar structures, enhancing convective mixing and mass loss, potentially affecting the plateau’s brightness and duration. Higher explosion energy results in brighter but shorter plateaus due to faster-moving ejecta. 56 Ni mass affects late-time luminosity and plateau duration, with larger masses leading to slower declines.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Black Hole Supernovae, Their Equation of State Dependence, and Ejecta Composition

Abstract Recent literature on core-collapse supernovae suggests that a black hole (BH) can form within ∼1 s of shock revival, while still culminating in a successful supernova. We refer to these as BH supernovae, as they are distinct from other BH formation channels in both timescale and impact on the explosion. We simulate these events self-consistently from core collapse until 20–50 days after collapse using three axisymmetric models of a 60 M ⊙ zero-age main-sequence progenitor star and investigate how the composition of the ejecta is impacted by the BH formation. We employ Skyrme-type equations of state (EOSs) and vary the uncertain nucleonic effective mass, which affects the pressure inside the proto–neutron star through the thermal part of the EOS. This results in different BH formation times and explosion energies at BH formation, yielding final explosion energies between 0.06 and 0.72 × 10 51 erg with 21.8–23.3 M ⊙ of ejecta, of which 0–0.018 M ⊙ is 56 Ni. Compared to expectations from 1D simulations, we find more nuanced EOS dependences of the explosion dynamics, the mass of the BH remnant, and the elemental composition of the ejecta. We investigate why the explosions survive despite the massive overburden and link the shape of the diagnostic energy curve and character of the ejecta evolution to the progenitor structure.

Eggenberger Andersen, Oliver (ORCID:00000002966079↗
DOE OSTI2026

Late-time Hubble Space Telescope Ultraviolet Spectra of SN 2023ixf and SN 2024ggi Show Ongoing Interaction with Circumstellar Material

We present far- and near-ultraviolet (UV) spectra of the type II supernovae (SNe) SN 2023ixf from days 199 to 722 and SN 2024ggi at days 41 and 232. Both SNe show broad, blueshifted, and asymmetric UV emission lines with an initial maximum velocity of ∼9000 km s −1 and narrow unresolved emission in C ivλλ1548.9, 1550.8. We compare the optical and UV emission-line profiles, showing that they evolve from two distinct velocity profiles to a single profile tracing the UV emission. We interpret this as shock power from interaction with circumstellar material coming to dominate over the radioactive-decay power from the inner ejecta. Comparing our observations to radiative transfer models with injected shock power, we find SN 2024ggi is best matched by P shock,abs = 1 × 10 41 erg s −1 at day 40; SN 2023ixf at day 300 and SN 2024ggi at day 200 are best matched by P shock,abs = 1 × 10 40 erg s −1 ; and SN 2023ixf at day 600 is best matched by Pshock,abs = 5 × 10 39 erg s −1 . From these models, we find that the mass-loss rate of both SNe increased just before the explosion. For SN 2023ixf, our mass-loss rates go from 4 × 10 −5 M ⊙ yr −1 at 600 yr before explosion to 2 × 10 −2 M ⊙ yr − 1 at 15 yr prior to explosion. For SN 2024ggi, we find a mass-loss rate of 9 × 10 −5 M ⊙ yr −1 at 150 yr before explosion and 1 × 10 −3 M ⊙ yr −1 at 30 yr before explosion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical Correlations and Predictions Emerging from Modern Core-collapse Supernova Theory

Abstract In this paper, we derive correlations between core-collapse supernova observables and progenitor core structures that emerge from our suite of 20 state-of-the-art 3D core-collapse supernova simulations carried to late times. This is the largest such collection of 3D supernova models ever generated and allows one to witness and derive testable patterns that might otherwise be obscured when studying one or a few models in isolation. From this panoramic perspective, we have discovered correlations between explosion energy, neutron star gravitational birth masses, 56 Ni and α -rich freezeout yields, and pulsar kicks and theoretically important correlations with the compactness parameter of progenitor structure. We find a correlation between explosion energy and progenitor mantle binding energy, suggesting that such explosions are self-regulating. We also find a testable correlation between explosion energy and measures of explosion asymmetry, such as the ejecta energy and mass dipoles. While the correlations between two observables are roughly independent of the progenitor zero-age main-sequence (ZAMS) mass, the many correlations we derive with compactness cannot unambiguously be tied to a particular progenitor ZAMS mass. This relationship depends on the compactness/ZAMS mass mapping associated with the massive star progenitor models employed. Therefore, our derived correlations between compactness and observables may be more robust than with ZAMS mass but can nevertheless be used in the future once massive star modeling has converged.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the use of mobile modular gas samplers in near-field detection

The Wireless Independent Noble Gas Sampler (WINGS) is a mobile, modular gas sampling system designed for use in low infrastructure environments. In the case of a suspected underground nuclear explosion (UNE), WINGS units could be deployed to detect noble gases emanating from the suspected explosion site or identify gases originating from another source entering the local area from offsite. In conclusion, this work uses the atmospheric transport modeling tool inline WRF-HYSPLIT to test the effectiveness of WINGS units around a suspected UNE site as a function of sampler density and distance from the emission point of gases from a UNE.

Air sampling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of Non-Nuclear Plowshare and Vela Uniform Sites - 20447

The Plowshare Program was initiated by the Atomic Energy Commission, a predecessor agency to the US Department of Energy (DOE), to investigate peaceful uses of nuclear devices. 'Vela Uniform,' part of the broader Project Vela, was designed to use nuclear and other explosions to increase the capability of the United States to detect nuclear tests through seismicity. There were underground nuclear tests conducted off the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) as part of the Plowshare Program (e.g., the Gnome-Coach, New Mexico, Site) and the Vela Uniform Program (e.g., Project Shoal, Nevada, Site) at which the DOE Office of Legacy Management (LM) has been conducting long-term surveillance and maintenance since fiscal year (FY) 2006. There are many additional locations, particularly for the Plowshare Program, that were considered for nuclear tests or used for non-nuclear tests off the NNSS. Some were only named on paper, but at 30 sites, field work such as drilling test wells and conducting tests using conventional explosives was done. A Plowshare nuclear explosion had been proposed at Project Chariot but was canceled in 1962. In 1992, the discovery of soils contaminated with radionuclides from tracer experiments led to a cleanup by the DOE Office of Environmental Management (EM) of the Project Chariot, Alaska, Site, which was completed in 1994. Following the cleanup of the Project Chariot site, EM was concerned that there might be environmental liabilities at other Plowshare or Vela Uniform sites where field investigations were done, even if the nuclear test was never conducted. The EM Program at the Nevada Site Office began examining records and visiting selected locations that were evaluated for Plowshare and Vela Uniform non-nuclear tests. In total, 161 Plowshare and 14 Vela Uniform sites or proposed projects were identified. The Desert Research Institute (DRI) created summaries of the work carried out at these sites and developed a collection of unclassified documents for them. Preliminary investigations had been conducted at these sites by both LM and EM since the early 2000's. In 2016, in preparation for accepting responsibility for the sites, LM started a program to determine if there were any environmental or safety liabilities associated with them. In 2019, LM formally accepted responsibility for these sites off the NNSS where non-nuclear explosive tests were conducted or where underground nuclear tests were proposed as part of the Plowshare and Vela Uniform programs but were never conducted. LM responsibilities will include maintaining institutional knowledge of the sites, responding to public inquiries, and addressing any concerns at each site. To minimize risk associated with site management, LM has archived all historical records compiled by DRI and has performed limited investigations at sites identified by the prior studies as having a higher potential liability. Preserving records related to site operations reduces the risk of doing unnecessary site investigations in the future caused by the loss of institutional knowledge. During the investigations, some maintenance needs were identified and will be addressed by the end of FY 2021. At the end of FY 2021, investigations, maintenance, and archiving activities will be complete. Remnants of test activities found at sites include craters, mud pits, debris, and open boreholes. Open boreholes are being plugged and abandoned in accordance with state regulatory standards. Other issues are being addressed in accordance with land owner requests and preferences as well as state regulations. Archiving activities include the development of project summaries identifying key operational details and current condition to allow site managers to be easily briefed. The LM experience at non-nuclear Plowshare and Vela Uniform sites applies to other programs where there is the potential for liability associated with the non-nuclear aspects of nuclear programs. This may include support activities or early phases of planned nuclear projects. Preserving institutional knowledge enables land managers to adequately address any concerns associated with operations and lowers risk. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ballistic Ejection of Microdroplets from Overpacked Interfacial Assemblies

Spontaneous emulsification, resulting from the assembly and accumulation of surfactants at liquid–liquid interfaces, is an interfacial instability where microdroplets are generated and diffusively spread from the interface until complete emulsification. Here, it is shown that an external magnetic field can modulate the assembly of paramagnetic nanoparticle surfactants (NPSs) at liquid–liquid interfaces to trigger an oversaturation in the areal density of the NPSs at the interface, as evidenced by a marked reduction in the interfacial tension, γ, and corroborated with a magnetostatic continuum theory. Despite the significant reduction in γ, the presence of the magnetic field does not cause stable interfaces to become unstable. Upon rapid removal of the field, however, an explosive ejection of a plume of microdroplets from the surface occurs, a dynamical interfacial instability which is termed explosive emulsification. Further, this explosive event rapidly reduces the areal density of the NPSs to its pre-field level, stabilizing the interface. The ability to externally suppress or trigger the explosive emulsification and controlled generation of tens of thousands of microdroplets, uncovers an efficient energy storage and release process, that has potential applications for controlled and directed delivery of chemicals and remotely controlled soft microrobots, taking advantage of the ferromagnetic nature of the microdroplets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Raman signatures of detonation soot

Soot generated from the detonation of nine explosives was investigated with Raman microspectroscopy and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). The first order bands, located at approximately 1,580 (G), 1,350 (D1), 1,620 cm –1 (D2), 1,500 (D3), and 1,200 (D4), are used to provide information on the carbon allotropes and defects. The intensity ratios and the full-width at half-maximum provide an indication of the disorder in the material. The Raman spectra of soot acquired from the detonation of nine explosives showed differences which can be used to identify the precursor explosive. Overall, most differences in the spectra were correlated with the presence of amorphous carbon in the soot. In additional to identification of distinct bands in the spectra via deconvolution, principal component analysis was also used to differentiate the different types of soot. HRTEM performed on soot samples with different explosive precursors identified several distinct allotropes of carbon such as nanodiamonds, carbon onions, graphite fibers, and amorphous carbon.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Heterogeneities on the Reaction-zone of a Propagating Detonation Wave

Reactive burn models for propagating detonation waves in an explosive are based on the ZND (Zel'dovich-Von Neumann-Doring) theory. A key property of the ZND theory, which leads to self-sustaining detonation waves, is a sonic point relative to the front in the reaction zone. Moreover, burn models assume the explosive is a homogeneous material. This assumption is used for plastic-bonded explosives, even though they are heterogeneous materials. The heterogeneities are accounted for only with an empirical burn rate. Furthermore, the reaction-zone width can be less than the length scale of heterogeneities. This raises the question of the effect of heterogeneities on the reaction zone. In particular, whether the reaction zone can be steady and have a well defined sonic point. To examine this question we focus on PBX 9501 since there is data on the grain-binder heterogeneities and on the reaction-zone velocity time history of a steady planar detonation wave. Using pseudo-mesoscale 1-D simulations, we examine the effect of a detonation wave transversing explosive and binder segments of random length. The simulations show that the reaction zone is quasi-steady with only short wavelength small amplitude variations in the detonation wave pressure and speed. The main effect of the heterogeneities is to introduce noise in the pressure and velocity fields that propagates into the Taylor wave behind the detonation. This is consistent with the scatter in the reaction-zone measurements for PBX 9501.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Biggest Fool Thing

This presentation provides an overview of Nuclear Explosives Safety for a W/Q/E Division WebeX. It includes an overview of how detonators and high explosives are considered as part of Nuclear Explosives Safety. Several accidents involving High Explosives are also discussed. This presentation was adapted from LA-CP-16-20438.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Abbreviated Technical Report: Experimentally Interrogating Detonation Chemistry on Sub-Nanosecond to Nanosecond Timescales

Direct experimental measurement of chemical reactions during high explosive detonation remains challenging. Theory and modeling have long preceded experiment in the fundamental physical and chemical kinetic properties of detonation, and experimentation at the relevant timescales are needed to both validate models and provide fundamental understanding of detonation. In this LDRD-ER project, two approaches, x-ray diffraction and core-level x-ray Raman, were developed and used to further experimental capabilities to address this gap. We further developed dynamic x-ray diffraction to directly detect nanodiamond formation during detonation, providing experimental data towards resolving longstanding controversy in the scientific literature, and although the full kinetics have not yet been fully mapped, diamond diffraction appears on the same timescales as detonation soot formation. In the second research thrust, we have developed core-level x-ray Raman for use with high explosives. This technique provides information analogous to x-ray absorption spectroscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy, but uses inelastic scattering of hard x-rays that can interrogate chemistry around light elements much deeper into the material. The low cross section and requisite high solid angle collection have hindered its use for ultra-fast spectroscopy. We developed and tested a high-q spectrometer which will substantially increase cross section and signal-to-noise, showing this method will also not dramatically alter, compared to x-ray absorption, the most discriminating spectral features of C, N, and O from various high explosives and expected detonation products. We have also used x-ray Raman combined with OCEAN electronic structure calculations to explore dynamic photodegradation mechanisms in PETN and CL-20 explosives. This provides a pathway towards implementing capability to dynamically explore chemistry at an x-ray free electron laser.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recruiting Perovskites to Degrade Toxic Trinitrotoluene

Everybody knows TNT, the most widely used explosive material and a universal measure of the destructiveness of explosions. A long history of use and extensive manufacture of toxic TNT leads to the accumulation of these materials in soil and groundwater, which is a significant concern for environmental safety and sustainability. Reliable and cost-efficient technologies for removing or detoxifying TNT from the environment are lacking. Despite the extreme urgency, this remains an outstanding challenge that often goes unnoticed. We report here that highly controlled energy release from explosive molecules can be accomplished rather easily by preparing TNT–perovskite mixtures with a tailored perovskite surface morphology at ambient conditions. These results offer new insight into understanding the sensitivity of high explosives to detonation initiation and enable many novel applications, such as new concepts in harvesting and converting chemical energy, the design of new, improved energetics with tunable characteristics, the development of powerful fuels and miniaturized detonators, and new ways for eliminating toxins from land and water.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Imaging the Shallow Structure of the Yucca Flat at the Source Physics Experiment Phase II Site with Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio Inversion and a Large- N Seismic Array

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a series of chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) with the goal of understanding seismic-wave generation and propagation of underground explosions. To understand explosion source physics, accurate geophysical models of the SPE site are needed. Here, we utilize a large-N seismic array deployed at the SPE phase II site to generate a shallow subsurface model of shear-wave velocity. The deployment consists of 500 geophones and covers an area of, approximately, 2.5 × 2 km. The array is located in the Yucca Flat in the northeast corner of the NNSS, Nye County, Nevada. Using ambient-noise recordings throughout the large-N seismic array, we calculate horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) across the array. We obtain 2D seismic images of shear-wave velocities across the SPE phase II site for the shallow structure of the basin. In this work the results clearly image two significant seismic impedance interfaces at ~150–500 and ~350–600 m depth. The shallower interface relates to the contrast between Quaternary alluvium and Tertiary volcanic rocks. The deeper interface relates to the contrast between Tertiary volcanic rocks and the Paleozoic bedrock. The 2D subsurface models support and extend previous understanding of the structure of the SPE phase II site. This study shows that the HVSR method in conjunction with a large-N seismic array is a quick and effective method for investigating shallow structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of sub‐mm cylindrical voids on detonation performance in PBX 9501

Abstract Internal features of varying scale and geometry are always present in explosives systems. Below a critical length, dependent on the explosive, these features can operate as a driving force for energy concentration and reaction, known as hotspots. At larger length scales, internal features result in jetting and detonation wave shaping, allowing for bulk work to be done by the explosive as is seen in shape charges. To date, a large volume of work has been performed to simulate hotspot ignition and large‐scale wave shaping. However, little experimental data exists on the effects of features in intermediate length scales, 0.1 to 1 millimeter. It has been observed in many tests that these small‐scale features can influence the high explosive (HE) performance and in some cases cause substantial damage to adjacent systems. This work provides quantitative data on the effects of machined voids moderately above more typical hotspot lengths, 0.3–0.8 mm in diameter, in PBX 9501 pressed to 1.785 g cm −3 ±2.5 mg cm −3 . Streak imaging was used to visualize void collapse, jet velocity, re‐initiation time, and wave shape evolution. Delay in detonation front propagation time was found to be linearly dependent on the void diameter and jet velocity was found to be independent within the tested range and resolution. Cut‐back experiments were used to investigate wave shape distortion and evolution downstream of the void, showing consistent growth and decay shapes across all void sizes. Simulations using CTH, a hydrocode by Sandia National Laboratory, were used to investigate void collapse showing agreement with the trends of experimental results but yielded inaccurate wave shape development delay values. Both simulation and experimental results identified several re‐initiation mechanisms with jetting and subsequent double shocking of localized HE being the dominant mechanisms for the void sizes that were studied.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shock-induced kinetics and cellular structures of liquid nitromethane detonation

Using a combination of high-speed diagnostics, optical pyrometry, velocimetry and video photography, we examine the spatiotemporal reaction kinetics of a prototypical high-energy explosive, liquid nitromethane (NM), as we drive this high explosive into detonation. The detonations were initiated by powerful shock waves whose durations (4 ns) were shorter than the characteristic time associated with the reaction (7 ns). Simple optical spectroscopy alone cannot characterize the kinetics with high time resolution because the reactants and products are flowing at a high velocity of ~6 km/s (6 µm/ns). Additionally, every detection volume behind the shock front contains material initiated over a range of times. High spatial resolution can be obtained by probing interfaces where the shock enters or breaks out of the NM. In addition, we obtain cellular patterns imprinted on the luminous shock front by the two-stage explosion in NM. These spatiotemporal patterns arise naturally as a result of the asymmetry produced by the moving shock front. In this way the shock front serves as a thin moving intrinsic optical gauge that reports and characterizes the two-stage NM explosion behind the front.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A block-spectral adaptive H-/$p$-refinement strategy for shock-dominated problems

An adaptive H-/p-refinement strategy using a novel sensor is devised and tested in a block-spectral compressible Euler code equipped with adaptive-mesh refinement (AMR) and high-order flux-reconstruction numerics. At each Gauss quadrature point (or solution point) within each spectral block (or mesh element) the discrete velocity jump ΔU = ∂U/∂y 1 Δy 1 + ∂V/∂y 2 Δy 2 + ∂W/∂y 3 Δy 3 is calculated and normalized by the local speed of sound, a. Here, the grid spacing, Δx i , is calculated in each direction as the distance between auxiliary Gauss-Lobatto points, staggered relative to the solution points. The polynomial order is increased from p = 0 to p = p max in regions of weak compression, (ΔU/a) crit < ΔU/a < 0 and kept at p = p max in regions of flow expansion ΔU/a ≥ 0, while staying at the H = 0 base mesh level. Regions experiencing strong compressions, i.e. ΔU/a < (ΔU/a) crit , are H-refined up to H = H max where H max is applied at the location of maximum compression, ΔU/a = min(ΔU/a) in the domain, while keeping p = 0 to guarantee robustness and monotonicity of the solution in the H refined region. The critical value of (ΔU/a) crit = -0.06 is found to effectively separate smooth and non-smooth solution regions, supported by a 1D detonation initiation test case in ideal gas and a shock-to-detonation transition in high explosives. Using this value, the Sod shock tube, Shu-Osher problem, double Mach reflection and a 2D detonation in a high-explosive are simulated with the proposed adaptive H-/p-refinement. In the Sod shock tube case, p-refinement resolves the (weak) contact discontinuity while H-refinement enhances the grid resolution in the shock exploiting the monotonicity of the p = 0 reconstruction. For the Shu-Osher problem, p-refinement captures the small-scale oscillations trailing the shock that would be otherwise attenuated, while H-refinement triggered by the ΔU-sensor appropriately tracks the shock. In the double Mach reflection problem, H-refinement confines the numerical diffusion around the reflected shock while p-refinement recaptures many physical features trailing the shock. Finally, in the 2D high-explosive detonation case, H-refinement follows the leading shock and resolves the curvature of the detonation wave, while p-refinement adds resolution to the trailing reaction zone. Finally, the proposed methodology is tested in a detonation-wave propagation test case in high-explosives with numerical predictions comparing favorably against experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of near-background concentrations of Argon-37 and Xenon-133 in the Atmosphere

Radioisotopes of noble gases xenon and argon can be important indicators of underground nuclear explosions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes monitoring capabilities to identify potential nuclear explosions conducted in violation of the CTBT. This monitoring currently focuses on measurement of the xenon isotopes 133Xe, 135Xe, 131mXe and 133mXe. However, it is predicted that within 100 days of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) 37Ar would be released to the atmosphere at higher concentrations than xenon isotopes (Haas et al. 2010) and with a higher signal to background ratio, depending on the radioxenon background levels. Therefore, inclusion of 37Ar measurement capabilities at atmospheric International Monitoring System (IMS) stations may represent an improvement in the capability to detect a nuclear explosion. At an IMS station, it could be difficult to determine what constitutes an elevated concentration as a result of an UNE without first understanding the expected range of background concentrations. This work describes our analysis of atmospheric samples for 37Ar to evaluate the range of background concentrations. Samples were collected at multiple locations, with approximately half coming from a sampler co-located with an IMS xenon monitoring station (RN75). The range of 37Ar concentrations measured in atmospheric air samples was relatively narrow; for samples considered detectable, the minimum and maximum measured concentrations were 0.56 and 2.3 mBq/m3, respectively. Comparison of 37Ar and 133Xe concentrations measured at the IMS station indicated some correlation between the measured concentrations. The results presented here demonstrate the capability to detect background concentrations of 37Ar in atmospheric air and provide a basis for potential implementation of 37Ar monitoring at IMS stations.

Fritz, Brad G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examining the potential for detecting simultaneous noble gas and aerosol samples in the international monitoring system radionuclide network

The purpose of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is to establish a legally binding ban on nuclear weapon test explosions or any other nuclear explosions. The Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) is developing the International Monitoring System (IMS) that includes a global network of 80 stations to monitor for airborne radionuclides upon entry into force of the CTBT. All 80 radionuclide stations will monitor for particulate radionuclides and at least half of the stations will monitor for radioxenon. The airborne radionuclide monitoring is an important verification technology both for the detection of a radionuclide release and in the determination of whether the release event originates from a nuclear explosion as opposed to an industrial use of nuclear materials. Nuclear power plants and many medical isotope production facilities release radioxenon into the atmosphere. Low levels of a few particulate isotopes, such as iodine, may also be released. Detections of multiple isotopes are useful for screening the radionuclide samples for relevance to the Treaty. This paper examines the anticipated joint detections in the IMS of noble gas and particulate isotopes from underground nuclear explosions where breaches in the underground containment vents from low levels to up to 1% of the radionuclide inventory of the resulting fission products to the atmosphere. Detection probabilities are based on 844 simulated release events spaced out at 17 release locations and one year in time. Six different release (venting) scenarios, including two fractionated scenarios, were analyzed. When ranked by detection probability, 11 particulate isotopes and one noble gas isotope ( 133 Xe) appear in the top 20 isotopes for all six release scenarios. Using the 11 particulate isotopes and the one noble gas isotope, the IMS has nearly the same detection probability as when 45 particulate and 4 noble gas isotopes are used. Thus, a limited list of relevant radionuclides may be sufficient for treaty verification purposes. The probability that at least one particulate and at least one radioxenon isotope would be detected in the IMS from the release events ranged from 0.15 to 0.86 depending on the release scenario.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗