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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing the Recycled Gabbro Hypothesis for the Origin of “Ghost Plagioclase” Melt Signatures Using 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of Individual Olivine-Hosted Melt Inclusions From Hawai'i

Melt inclusions with large, positive Sr anomalies have been described in multiple tectonic settings, and the origins of this unusual geochemical feature are debated. Three origins have been proposed, all involving plagioclase as the source of the elevated Sr: (i) direct assimilation of plagioclase-rich lithologies, (ii) recycled lower oceanic gabbro in the mantle source, and (iii) shallow-level diffusive interaction between present day lower oceanic crust (i.e., plagioclase-bearing lithologies) and the percolating melt. A “ghost plagioclase” signature (i.e., a large, positive Sr anomaly without associated high Al 2 O 3 ) is present in melt inclusions from Mauna Loa. Here, we present new 87 Sr/ 86 Sr measurements of individual olivine-hosted melt inclusions from three Hawaiian volcanoes, Mauna Loa, Loihi, and Koolau. The data set includes a Mauna Loa melt inclusion with the highest reported Sr anomaly (or highest (Sr/Ce) N , which is 7.2) for Hawai'i. All melt inclusions have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values within the range reported previously for the lavas from each volcano. Critically, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the high (Sr/Ce) N melt inclusion lies within the narrow range of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr for Mauna Loa melts that lack high (Sr/Ce) N signatures. Therefore, to explain the high (Sr/Ce) N ratio of the ghost plagioclase signature using an ancient recycled gabbro, the gabbro-infused mantle source would have had to evolve, by chance, to have the same 87 Sr/ 86 Sr as the source of the Mauna Loa melts that lack a recycled gabbro (ghost plagioclase) signature. Alternatively, shallow-level diffusive interactions between Mauna Loa plagioclase-rich cumulates and a percolating mantle-derived melt provides a simpler explanation for the presence of the high (Sr/Ce) N Mauna Loa melts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Projected precipitation changes in a warming climate vary considerably, spatially, and between intensities. The changes can be greater or less than the ~7% K -1 Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) prediction, owing to dynamic effects. Using two global-climate-model large ensembles, we quantify the dynamically induced changes to precipitation extremes from the present (1996–2005) to late-21st-century (2071–2080) climates, as a function of recurrence interval, focusing on the subtropics. We separate non-CC changes into a term proportional to the present-day vertical-velocity spatial pattern (i.e., an amplification or damping thereof by a constant factor) and a residual. The amplitude term varies with recurrence interval, approximately canceling (doubling) CC for moderate (large) extremes, increasing precipitation variability. Contrastingly, the residual is quasi-uniform across recurrence intervals but spatially heterogeneous, weakening extremes over dry zones. This residual may be related to Hadley cell expansion, although this explanation is insufficient to explain many features, and other possible mechanisms are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Why Are There so Few Reports of High-Energy Electron Drift Resonances? Role of Radial Phase Space Density Gradients

Models of monochromatic Pc5 (2–7 mHz) ultralow frequency (ULF) wave interactions with high energy (greater than ~1 MeV) electrons predict drift resonant interactions that can cause rapid radial transport and acceleration. There are few reports of electron drift resonance at energies greater than ~1 MeV, in contrast to lower energies; moreover, all previous reports occur in the aftermath of interplanetary shocks. These two facts are difficult to reconcile with theory and numerical simulations predicting that greater than ~1 MeV drift resonances should occur more often and in a wider variety of driving conditions. In this study, we show that a combination of observational sampling biases and nominal radial phase space density gradients is one explanation for this discrepancy between theory and observations. In particular, we examine electron dynamics in two case studies with very similar satellite coverage, solar wind conditions, and Pc5 wave properties, yet with different radial phase space density profiles. Using global wave and particle observations, we show that the events have vastly different particle responses despite having similar wave properties. Placing these results in context with past studies, we further show here that nominal radial PSD gradients near geostationary orbit can mask the expected drift resonance particle response and explain (1) the small number of past greater than ~1 MeV drift resonance reports and (2) the restriction of these reports to interplanetary shock events. We argue that future observational studies characterizing radial transport via drift resonance should examine global particle dynamics, including observations of the radial phase space density profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Caltech Lab Experiments and the Insights They Provide Into Solar Corona Phenomena

A comprehensive overview of two decades of Caltech experiments relevant to solar corona physics is presented. The extent to which the experiments scale to the solar corona, the basic configurations and operation, and the importance of the magnetic force J × B common to all the experiments is discussed. Summaries are given of the various configurations used, the main observations, and interpretations of these observations, including new models developed to provide these interpretations. Topics include observations and explanations for flux rope self-collimation, axial flows along flux ropes, eruption of arched flux ropes, strapping magnetic fields that inhibit eruption, the torus instability, and effects such as X-ray emission of a kink-driven secondary Rayleigh-Taylor instability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of Global Ocean Deoxygenation to Vertical and Isopycnal Mixing in an Ocean Biogeochemistry Model

Large-scale loss of oxygen under global warming is termed “ocean deoxygenation” and is caused by the imbalance between physical supply and biological consumption of oxygen in the ocean interior. Significant progress has been made in the theoretical understanding of ocean deoxygenation; however, many questions remain unresolved. The oxygen change in the tropical thermocline is poorly understood, with diverging projections among different models. Physical oxygen supply is controlled by a suite of processes that transport oxygen-rich surface waters into the interior ocean, which is expected to weaken due to increasing stratification under global warming. Using a numerical model and a series of sensitivity experiments, the role of ocean mixing is examined in terms of effects on the mean state and the response to a transient warming. Both vertical and horizontal (isopycnal) mixing coefficients are systematically varied over a wide range, and the resulting oxygen distributions in equilibrated and transient simulations are examined. The spatial patterns of oxygen loss are sensitive to both vertical and isopycnal mixing, and the sign of tropical oxygen trend under climate warming can reverse depending on the choice of mixing parameters. An elevated level of isopycnal mixing disrupts the vertical advective-diffusive balance of the tropical thermocline, increasing the mean state oxygen as well as the magnitude of the transient oxygen decline. These results provide first-order explanations for the diverging behaviors of simulated tropical oxygen with respect to ocean mixing parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Does LCL Height Influence Deep Convective Updraft Width?

Previous studies have hypothesized that the width of deep convection should positively scale with lifting condensation level (LCL) height. To evaluate this hypothesis, we analyzed idealized large-eddy simulations with varying LCL heights and initial warm bubble widths in unsheared environments with comparable convective available potential energy. For a given initial warm bubble width, simulations with higher LCLs result in wider, deeper, and stronger cloudy updrafts compared to simulations with lower LCLs. Rising dry thermals in higher LCL simulations experience longer residence times within the sub-cloud layer, and consequently entrain more conditionally unstable air and grow wider before reaching the LCL. The resulting cloudy updrafts are wider, deeper, and have faster vertical velocities because of a reduction in entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy, relative to lower LCL simulations. These results confirm the hypothesized positive relationship between LCL height and deep convective updraft width, and provide a physical explanation for this relationship.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Graupel Precipitating From Thin Arctic Clouds With Liquid Water Paths Less Than 50 g m -2

Rimed precipitation growth can efficiently remove moisture and aerosols from the boundary layer, yet thin low-level Arctic mixed-phase clouds are generally thought to precipitate pristine and aggregated ice crystals. Here we present automated surface photographic measurements showing that only 34% of precipitation particles exhibit negligible riming and that graupel particles ≥ in diameter commonly fall from clouds with liquid water paths less than 50 g m -2 . Analyses indicate that significant riming enhancement can occur provided sustained updrafts of 0.4 m s -1 , consistent with those measured in Arctic clouds. A Lagrangian numerical simulation that tracks falling particles suggests that similar updraft speeds can account for about one half of the observed riming enhancement. Riming enhancement appears particularly likely when weak temperature inversions are observed at cloud top, but a full explanation remains to be determined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud Top Radiative Cooling Rate Drives Non-Precipitating Stratiform Cloud Responses to Aerosol Concentration

Increases in aerosol concentration are well known to influence the microphysical processes and radiative properties of clouds. By reducing droplet size, an increase in aerosol can lessen collision efficiency and increase liquid water path (LWP) in precipitating clouds or enhance evaporation rate and decrease LWP in non-precipitating clouds. We utilize large eddy simulations to further investigate these aerosol indirect effects in Arctic mixed-phase clouds and find, in agreement with previous studies, precipitating clouds to experience an increase in LWP and non-precipitating clouds a decrease in LWP. Most importantly however, our results reveal a different explanation for why such an LWP decrease occurs in decoupled, non-precipitating clouds. We find enhanced evaporation near cloud top to be driven primarily by a strengthening of maximum radiative cooling rate with aerosol concentration which drives stronger entrainment, an effect that holds true even in clouds that are optically thick.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geoscientific Hypotheses with Geophysical Data: Application to Electrical Resistivity Imaging of a Fractured Bedrock Zone

As climate changes and populations grow, groundwater sustainability is becoming increasingly important. Groundwater models, based on a conceptual understanding of the subsurface structure, are crucial tools for making sustainable management decisions. Conceptual models of the subsurface are based on knowledge of geological processes, and, frequently, observations from geophysical data. A frequent problem in groundwater model development occurs when multiple geological phenomena could explain a single subsurface observation. Uncertainty in geophysical data makes it even more difficult to discern which explanations are consistent with the geophysics. Here, we present a framework for testing geological when a geological feature is observed in geophysical data, but its physical characteristics are uncertain. The framework builds on Popper-Bayes methods developed in previous work, and is applied to study a fractured bedrock zone in a mountainous watershed in southwest Colorado. First, we outline six hypotheses based on the geological history of the watershed. Then, using the proposed Popper-Bayes approach, we demonstrate that three of the six hypotheses are inconsistent with measured electrical resistivity data, even after accounting for uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the importance of the prior model, and how this framework for handling geophysical uncertainty can be applied in other settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Dust-Smoke Mixtures on Boundary Layer Processes and Nocturnal Warming in the Sahel

Using a single column model with ground-based, aircraft, and satellite data sets we assess the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols, land degradation/aridization (LDA), and their impact on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in influencing near-surface air temperature over the Sahel. Our study is unique because it assesses the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols on PBL evolution and near-surface air temperatures during both day and nighttime. More importantly, using a theoretical framework, we provide a careful explanation of the geophysical processes responsible for the changes in PBL and near-surface air temperature. Our results indicate that during northern hemisphere winter months, dust, and smoke over Sahel radiatively combine to impact the PBL. We show that aerosol mixtures dominated by dust modify PBL height in a manner that minimizes/maximizes surface layer cooling/warming at times when daytime maximum/nocturnal minimum temperatures occur. Furthermore, we find that increasing smoke contribution to total column aerosol optical extinction counteracts nighttime warming through daytime cooling. When smoke constitutes half or more of to the total column aerosol optical extinction, the ratio of longwave to shortwave radiative forcing is less than 10%, and nighttime cooling ensues. Minimum temperature is most sensitive to changes in mid-visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) values <1 and doubling of dust AOD within this range during the 1950–1980 Sahelian LDA event is estimated to have a nocturnal warming potential of 0.6°C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Abstract Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Efforts toward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes in these large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complex error behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted using modern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previous studies to apply an explainable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also move toward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoost classification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis to explore the errors in the prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, a widely used Earth System Model. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error and indicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics of the land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

Abstract Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Geo‐Structurally Based Correction Factor for Apparent Dissolution Rates in Fractured Media

Abstract Field measurements of apparent geochemical weathering reaction rates in subsurface fractured porous media are known to deviate from laboratory measurements by multiple orders of magnitude. To date, there is no geologically based explanation for this discrepancy that can be used to predict reaction rates in field systems. Proposed correction factors are typically based on ad hoc characterizations related to geochemical kinetic models. Through a series of high‐fidelity reactive transport simulations of mineral dissolution within explicit 3D discrete fracture networks, we are able to link the geo‐structural attributes with reactive transport observations. We develop a correction factor to linear transition state theory for the prediction of the apparent dissolution rate based on measurable geological properties. The modified rate law shows excellent agreement with numerical simulations, indicating that geological structure could be a primary reason for the discrepancy between laboratory and field observations of apparent dissolution rates in fractured media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling of Electron Heating by Magnetization During Reconnection and Applications to Dipolarization Fronts and Super-Hot Solar Flares

Electron ring velocity space distributions have previously been seen in numerical simulations of magnetic reconnection exhausts and have been suggested to be caused by the magnetization of the electron outflow jet by the compressed reconnected magnetic fields (Shuster et al., 2014, https://doi. org/10.1002/2014GL060608). Here, we present a theory of the dependence of the major and minor radii of the ring distributions solely in terms of upstream (lobe) plasma conditions, thereby allowing a prediction of the associated temperature and temperature anisotropy of the rings in terms of upstream parameters. We test the validity of the prediction using 2.5-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations with varying upstream plasma density and temperature, finding excellent agreement between the predicted and simulated values. We confirm the Shuster et al. suggestion for the cause of the ring distributions, and also find that the ring distributions are located in a region marked by a plateau, or shoulder, in the reconnected magnetic field profile. The predictions of the temperature are consistent with observed electron temperatures in dipolarization fronts, and may provide an explanation for the generation of plasma with temperatures in the 10s of MK in super-hot solar flares. A possible extension of the model to dayside reconnection is discussed. Since ring distributions are known to excite whistler waves, the present results should be useful for quantifying the generation of whistler waves in reconnection exhausts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrical Responses of Modified Mineral Surfaces as Observed With Spectral Induced Polarization and Atomic Force Microscopy

Abstract Atomic force microscopy (AFM) and spectral induced polarization (SIP) are widely used to investigate the electrical properties of mineral surfaces at vastly different scales of measurement. We compare AFM and SIP measurements made on two different materials (glass beads and silica gel) subjected to etching, deposition of iron oxide particles, and inclusion of calcite grains. We found that the treatments produced qualitatively consistent behaviors in the AFM and SIP data. Direct AFM measurements of surface charge density for silica and calcite surfaces were quantitatively compared to values estimated from the SIP results using a grain polarization model. No statistically significant difference (at a 95% confidence level) was found between the surface charge density of silica estimated by AFM (2.3 ± 6.6 mC/m 2 for glass beads and 1.6 ± 0.1 mC/m 2 for silica gel) versus SIP (5.4 ± 4.4 mC/m 2 for glass beads and 1.6 ± 0.5 mC/m 2 for silica gel). The surface charge density for calcite determined by AFM (43.5 ± 12.9 mC/m 2 ) was approximately 19 times higher than that found for silica. While the charge density of calcite surfaces determined by SIP was also generally higher than that found for silica, different treatments produced significantly different values between 4.7 and 258 mC/m 2 (with a maximum 95% CI of ±8.7 mC/m 2 ). Several possible explanations exist for the range of the observed SIP measurements, including aging of the calcite surfaces. Overall, this study suggests the potential for the complementary use of AFM and SIP measurements to constrain future investigations of polarization mechanisms in porous media.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗