Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Economic modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 757 records · Page 42

Comparison of measured temperatures, thermal stresses and creep residues with predictions on a built-up titanium structure

Temperature, thermal stresses, and residual creep stresses were studied by comparing laboratory values measured on a built-up titanium structure with values calculated from finite-element models. Several such models were used to examine the relationship between computational thermal stresses and thermal stresses measured on a built-up structure. Element suitability, element density, and computational temperature discrepancies were studied to determine their impact on measured and calculated thermal stress. The optimum number of elements is established from a balance between element density and suitable safety margins, such that the answer is acceptably safe yet is economical from a computational viewpoint. It is noted that situations exist where relatively small excursions of calculated temperatures from measured values result in far more than proportional increases in thermal stress values. Measured residual stresses due to creep significantly exceeded the values computed by the piecewise linear elastic strain analogy approach. The most important element in the computation is the correct definition of the creep law. Computational methodology advances in predicting residual stresses due to creep require significantly more viscoelastic material characterization.

Jenkins, Jerald M.↗

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all-subsonic future fleet. The methodology, procedures, and recommendations for the development of future HSCT and the subsonic fleet scenarios used for this evaluation are discussed.

Wuebbles, Donald J.↗

The Retrospective Iterated Analysis Scheme for Nonlinear Chaotic Dynamics

Atmospheric data assimilation is the name scientists give to the techniques of blending atmospheric observations with atmospheric model results to obtain an accurate idea of what the atmosphere looks like at any given time. Because two pieces of information are used, observations and model results, the outcomes of data assimilation procedure should be better than what one would get by using one of these two pieces of information alone. There is a number of different mathematical techniques that fall under the data assimilation jargon. In theory most these techniques accomplish about the same thing. In practice, however, slight differences in the approaches amount to faster algorithms in some cases, more economical algorithms in other cases, and even give better overall results in yet some other cases because of practical uncertainties not accounted for by theory. Therefore, the key is to find the most adequate data assimilation procedure for the problem in hand. In our Data Assimilation group we have been doing extensive research to try and find just such data assimilation procedure. One promising possibility is what we call retrospective iterated analysis (RIA) scheme. This procedure has recently been implemented and studied in the context of a very large data assimilation system built to help predict and study weather and climate. Although the results from that study suggest that the RIA scheme produces quite reasonable results, a complete evaluation of the scheme is very difficult due to the complexity of that problem. The present work steps back a little bit and studies the behavior of the RIA scheme in the context of a small problem. The problem is small enough to allow full assessment of the quality of the RIA scheme, but it still has some of the complexity found in nature, namely, its chaotic-type behavior. We find that the RIA performs very well for this small but still complex problem which is a result that seconds the results of our early studies.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Cloud encounter statistics in the 28.5-43.5 KFT altitude region from four years of GASP observations

The results of an analysis of cloud encounter measurements taken at aircraft flight altitudes as part of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. The results can be used in estimating the probability of cloud encounter and in assessing the economic feasibility of laminar flow control aircraft along particular routes. The data presented clearly show the tropical circulation and its seasonal migration; characteristics of the mid-latitude regime, such as the large-scale traveling cyclones in the winter and increased convective activity in the summer, can be isolated in the data. The cloud encounter statistics are shown to be consistent with the mid-latitude cyclone model. A model for TIC (time-in-clouds), a cloud encounter statistic, is presented for several common airline routes.

Jasperson, W. H.↗

The Conference Proceedings of the 1998 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG) of the WCTR Society

Contents include the following: Airport choice in a multiple airport region: an empirical analysis for the San Francisco bay area. Liberalization of the westeuropian aviation: choice of a new hub airport for an airline. Austin Bergstrom airport traffic control tower establishment of a major activity level tower. A study to optimize the environmental capacity of Amsterdam airport schiphol.Airport performance in stakeholder involvement and communication strategies: a comparison of major Australian and North American air carrier and general aviation airports. Airport planning and location.Location of international airport and regional development. A simulation technique for analysis of Brasilian airport passanger terminal building.Multimodal airport access in Japan. Planning surface access provision at major airports Airline economics and the inclusion of environmental costs on airport hub pricing: a theoretical analysis. Airport financing and user charge systems in the USA. Optimal demand for operating lease of aircraft. Aircraft leasing industry and social welfare.The development of performance indicators for airports: a management perspective. Study about operational effect of the "security check-in" implantation in Brasilian international airports.Austin Bergstrom west loop cable system.and Optimal resource allocation model for airport passanger terminals.

Oum, Tae Hoon↗

Communal Sensor Network for Adaptive Noise Reduction in Aircraft Engine Nacelles

Emergent behavior, a subject of much research in biology, sociology, and economics, is a foundational element of Complex Systems Science and is apropos in the design of sensor network systems. To demonstrate engineering for emergent behavior, a novel approach in the design of a sensor/actuator network is presented maintaining optimal noise attenuation as an adaptation to changing acoustic conditions. Rather than use the conventional approach where sensors are managed by a central controller, this new paradigm uses a biomimetic model where sensor/actuators cooperate as a community of autonomous organisms, sharing with neighbors to control impedance based on local information. From the combination of all individual actions, an optimal attenuation emerges for the global system.

Jones, Kennie H.↗

NASA GRC Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Prediction Models

Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable, more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelope is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelope as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

Arya, Vinod K.↗

The case for Mars III: Strategies for exploration - Technical

Papers on issues related to Mars exploration are presented, covering topics such as the social implications of manned missions to Mars, mission strategies, mission designs, the economics of a Mars mission, Space Station support for a Mars mission, a Diagnostic and Environmental Monitoring System, and a zero-g CELSS/recreation facility for an earth/Mars crew shuttle. Other topics include biomedical concerns and fitness in spaceflight, spaceflight environment habitability, the Mars Rover/Sample Return Mission, a rooitic Mars surface sampler, a Mars Orbiter, and scientific goals of Mars exploration. Additional topics include Space Station evolution, mission options, modeling advanced space systems, computer support for Mars missions, launch system options, advanced propulsion techniques, the utilization of resources on Mars, the development of a Martian base, and options for mobility on Mars.

Stoker, Carol R.↗

Analysis of success probability/cost trades for small landers in a Mars network

The premise to be tested in this analysis is whether cost economics may accrue by delivering more landers designed to lower reliability of operation (compared to fewer landers of higher reliability) to obtain a desired probability of achieving a given number of lander successes. Generally, the application in mind is a network of penetrators, although the analysis may apply as well to other small lander concepts or even to simple rovers. The method of analysis is based on a probabilistic model of lander success and a related probabilistic model of project cost including the lander, spacecraft carrier, and integration, but not launch or operations costs. Quantitative results are obtained in a normalized and parametric fashion. Sensitivity to the assumed model parameters is also examined.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗

An extended soft-cube model for the thermal accommodation of gas atoms on solid surfaces

A numerical soft cube model was developed for calculating thermal accommodation coefficients alpha and trapping fractions f sub t for the interaction of gases incident upon solid surfaces. A semiempirical correction factor c which allows the calculation of alpha and f sub t when the collision times are long compared to the surface oscillator period were introduced. The processes of trapping, evaporation, and detailed balancing were discussed. The numerical method was designed to treat economically and with moderate (+ or - 20 percent) accuracy the dependence of alpha and f sub t on finite and different surface and gas temperatures for a large number of gas/surface combinations. Comparison was made with experiments of rare gases on tungsten and on alkalis, as well as one astrophysical case of H2 on graphite. The dependence of alpha on the soft cube dimensionless parameters is presented graphically.

Burke, J. R.↗

A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades.

Ayati, M. B.↗

Space station needs, attributes, and architectural options: Brief analysis

A baseline set of model missions is thoroughly characterized in terms of support requirements, demands on the Space Station, operating regimes, payload properties, and statements of the mission goals and objectives. This baseline is a representative set of mission requirements covering the most likely extent of space station support requirements from which architectural options can be constructed and exercised. The baseline set of 90 missions are assessed collectively and individually in terms of the economic, performance, and social benefits.

Shepphird, F. H.↗

ASRM subscale plume deflector testing

This paper reports the results of the scale model (1/22) testing of candidate refractory materials to be used as surface coatings for a solid rocket motor plume deflector structure. Five ROM tests were conducted to acquire data to support the selection, thickness determination, and placement of the materials. All data acquisition was achieved through nonintrusive methods. The tests demonstrated that little or no reductions in performance of the full-scale deflector would be experienced if the most economical materials were selected for construction.

Douglas, Freddie, III↗

The Three Gorges Dam Affects Regional Precipitation

Issues regarding building large-scale dams as a solution to power generation and flood control problems have been widely discussed by both natural and social scientists from various disciplines, as well as the policy-makers and public. Since the Chinese government officially approved the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) projects, this largest hydroelectric project in the world has drawn a lot of debates ranging from its social and economic to climatic impacts. The TGD has been partially in use since June 2003. The impact of the TGD is examined through analysis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall rate and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature and high-resolution simulation using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The independent satellite data sets and numerical simulation clearly indicate that the land use change associated with the TGD construction has increased the precipitation in the region between Daba and Qinling mountains and reduced the precipitation in the vicinity of the TGD after the TGD water level abruptly rose from 66 to 135 m in June 2003. This study suggests that the climatic effect of the TGD is on the regional scale (approx.100 km) rather than on the local scale (approx.10 km) as projected in previous studies.

Wu, Liguang↗

System Value Model of a Launch Vehicle

System value provides a mathematical representation of stakeholder’s preferences for the system. System value represents the utility that the system provides to the stakeholders. For a launch vehicle, important values are revenue generated through successful payloads, mission reliability, and the ability to accommodate payloads without modification to the payload instruments or spacecraft bus. This paper considers the value provided by a heavy lift launch vehicle to the satellite industry and to human exploration. An estimate is developed for a generic launch vehicle value in terms of impact to the Gross Domestic Product. Thermo-economics are applied in the calculation of system value. Mission reliability considers both successful delivery and on time delivery (i.e., operational availability). Payload accommodation considers mainly the diameter of the payload fairing for various types of missions.

Barth, Andrew↗

Additive Manufacturing: Disrupting Global Supply Chains and Enabling Sustainable Development

The integration of new materials and innovative manufacturing technologies into product supply chains are critically needed to address human and societal needs and to promote sustainable development and economic competitiveness. Recently, there has been tremendous growth in the additive manufacturing (AM) landscape with the introduction of high- end machines suitable for industrial applications. In addition, availability of desktop 3-D printers as well as open source printers and platforms have also facilitated the large scale growth of distributed manufacturing. The paradigm shift in thinking, where one can turn their design into product on demand, is leading to new business models and challenging traditional models of product development and distribution. In this presentation, an overview of different AM technologies will be provided along with technical challenges and opportunities. Various examples of materials (polymers, ceramics, metals, hybrids, and multi material systems) and structures achieved from utilizing a wide variety of additive manufacturing approaches will be provided. Technical challenges and opportunities for the utilization of additive manufacturing as a powerful enabler for sustainable development and disruptive technological threat to global supply chains for different materials and systems will be presented.

Additive Manufacturing↗

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending Appendices

Seven appendices related to a previous report on the economic impact of NASA R and D spending were presented. They dealt with: (1) theoretical and empirical development of aggregate production functions, (2) the calculation of the time series for the rate of technological progress, (3) the calculation of the industry mix variable, (4) the estimation of distributed lags, (5) the estimation of the equations for gamma, (6) a ten-year forecast of the U.S. economy, (7) simulations of the macroeconomic model for increases in NASA R and D spending of $1.0, $.0.5, and 0.1 billions.

Evans, M. K.↗

Reduction of aerodynamic drag and fuel consumption for tractor-trailer vehicles

Wind-tunnel tests were performed on a scale model of a cab-over-engine tractor-trailer vehicle and several modifications of the model. Results from two of the model configurations were compared with full-scale drag data obtained from similar configurations during coast-down tests. Reductions in fuel consumption derived from these tests are presented in terms of fuel quantity and dollar savings per vehicle year, based on an annual driving distance of 160,900 km (100,000 mi.). The projected savings varied from 13,001 (3435) to 25,848 (6829) liters (gallons) per year which translated to economic savings from $3435 to about $6829 per vehicle year for an operating speed of 88.5 km/h (55 mph) and wind speeds near the national average of 15.3 km/h (9.5 mph). The estimated cumulative fuel savings for the entire U.S. fleet of cab-over-engine tractor, van-type trailer combinations ranged from 4.18 million kl (26.3 million bbl) per year for a low-drag configuration to approximately twice that amount for a more advanced configuration.

Muirhead, V. U.↗