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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional paganica fault morphology obtained from hypocenter clustering (L'Aquila 2009 seismic sequence, Central Italy)

In seismic modelling, fault planes are normally assumed to be flat due to the lack of data which can constrain fault morphology. However, incorporating 3D fault morphology is important for modelling several phenomena, for example calculating mainshock induced stress changes. Here we utilize a data-analytical method to unveil the 3D rupture morphology of faults using unsupervised clustering techniques applied to earthquake hypocenters in seismic sequences. We apply this method to the 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence which involved a M W 6.1 mainshock on April 6th. We use a dataset of about 50,000 relocated events, mostly microearthquakes, reaching magnitude of completeness equal to 0.7. Clustering distinguishes the earthquakes as occurring in three main clusters along with other minor fault segments. We then represent the morphology of the main Paganica fault system (responsible for the largest mainshock) using splines. This method shows promise as a step toward robustly and quickly obtaining 3D rupture morphologies where earthquake sequences have been monitored. The 3D model is presented interactively online, and the processing is presented in an interactive Jupyter Notebook (https://bit.ly/2MnCFdj).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variability in Performance of a Machine Learning Seismicity Catalog: Central Italy, 2016–2017

Machine learning (ML) catalogs contain many more earthquakes than routine catalogs, but their performance in phase picking and earthquake detection has not been fully evaluated. We develop station‐level detection probabilities using logistic regression and combine them across a seismic network to compute spatial magnitude‐of‐completeness fields. We apply this approach to two catalogs from the 2016–2017 Central Italy sequence that were constructed from the same seismic network, one routine and one ML‐based. At the station level, the ML picker increases detection sensitivity by identifying smaller magnitude events and detecting earthquakes at greater distances. Spatially, the magnitude of completeness decreases substantially, with median values shifting from 1.6 to 0.5 for P waves and from 1.7 to 0.5 for S waves. However, the ML catalog also shows greater variability in station‐level performance than the routine catalog. These results demonstrate that ML‐based improvements in detectability are widespread but spatially nonuniform, highlighting their benefits, their limitations, and the potential for further improvements.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Physics Coupled Seismic Safety Analysis of Molten-Salt Reactors

Pool-type Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are a promising advanced nuclear reactor concept relying on passive physical behavior to provide increased safety characteristics. The high heat capacity, high boiling point, unpressurized liquid salt contains the nuclear fuel and as it passes through the vessel achieves criticality and produces nuclear power. The salt then carries away the heat produced along with the delayed neutron precursors towards heat exchangers and primary pumps before entering the core. This forms a highly coupled multiphysics problem between neutronics and fluid flow, which makes modeling these reactors challenging. The safety/licensing case heavily relies on modeling and simulation to prove their safety, and significant effort has been expanded by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to develop the appropriate simulation tools. Their safety/licensing will require a thorough analysis of their behavior during earthquake-based transients. Earthquakes are a transient condition commonly experienced in many regions, and are safely survived by dozens of reactors every year. Nonetheless, significant conservatisms were introduced with limited predictive modeling and simulation available. The first-of-a-kind capability developed by this research will allow for engineers to analyze ranges of design-basis and beyond-design basis accident scenarios to assess the integrity of the reactor vessel and surrounding system, possibly allowing for limiting the costly conservatisms in the design. This projects uses MASTODON, Griffin, and Pronghorn in the NEAMS ecosystem to model the coupled multiphysics problem posed by an earthquake in a molten salt reactor. It marches through a number of number of coupling schemes, from uncoupled simulations to tightly two-way coupled simulations. The appropriate level of coupling for these simulations will then be determined based on the accuracy in the quantities of interest (QoI) and computational effort involved in each scheme. The QoIs chosen for this paper include the mass flow rate across the heat exchanger (for Pronghorn simulations), power output of the reactor (for Griffin simulations), and the maximum Von Mises stress (for MASTODON simulations). This summary paper reports on the current progress of this project, with 2D tightly coupled multiphysics results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental and numerical studies of seismic fluid-structure interaction in a base-supported cylindrical vessel

Seismic design and qualification of advanced reactors will rely heavily on the use of verified and validated numerical models capable of capturing the interaction of the vessel, its contained fluid, and the internal equipment: fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis. Analytical solutions can be used for preliminary sizing and design of such vessels but their application is limited to simple geometries and boundary conditions, and small amplitude, translational (and rotational) inputs. To validate numerical models for seismic FSI analysis in finite element codes, a comprehensive set of experiments was performed on a liquid-filled cylindrical vessel, using a 6 degree-of-freedom earthquake simulator. Results in terms of sloshing frequency, damping ratio in sloshing modes, and hydrodynamic responses (wave height, hydrodynamic pressure, base shear, and base moment) for multi-directional earthquake simulator inputs are reported and compared with analytical solutions for liquid-filled vessels. The impact of seismic (base) isolation on hydrodynamic responses was studied using earthquake simulator inputs generated using a virtual isolation system. Data from the experiments are used to validate a numerical model of the fluid-filled vessel using the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) solver in the commercial finite element program LS-DYNA. Validation studies are presented for multi-directional seismic inputs, including rocking motions. Lagrangian modeling approaches using an elastic material formulation for the fluid are also investigated and their limitations and possible applications are identified. Here, the results are broadly applicable to the seismic response of base supported, liquid-filled vessels.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variability of near-fault seismic risk to reinforced concrete buildings based on high-resolution physics-based ground motion simulations

Broadband physics-based simulated earthquake ground motions are utilized to characterize the regional-scale seismic risk to modern reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A highly dense dataset of ground motions covering a 100-km urn:x-wiley:00988847:media:eqe3413:eqe3413-math-0001 40-km domain was generated using kinematic fault rupture models with varying rupture characteristics to represent shallow crustal earthquakes and resolved up to frequencies of 5 Hz. Over 40,000 nonlinear response history simulations of short- and mid-rise RC special moment frame buildings were conducted using simulation models that are capable of representing nonlinear behavior and component deterioration effects. The spatial variability of structural risk within a single earthquake scenario and between different rupture scenarios is examined, and the regions of strongest directivity effects and highest structural demands are identified. The structural demands may vary by factor of up to 8.0 at very short distances from the fault, and the large dispersion in the demands decreases significantly beyond a distance of 15 km. The interstory drift and member rotation demands are substantially impacted by important features of the geological structure and the characteristics of the rupture scenarios, particularly the presence of localized high-slip regions. The frequency characteristics of the structures are found to play an important role in determining the effects of near-fault ground motions on the structural response and expected damage. The results of this study suggest that the simulated ground motions, particularly those generated using the hybrid rupture approach, may offer reasonable structural risk estimates for low-frequency structures and conservative estimates for high-frequency structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Engineering evaluation of the EQSIM simulated ground-motion database: The San Francisco Bay Area region

Ground-motion simulations for infrequent earthquake scenarios are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform performance-based structural design and assessment, particularly in regions where major earthquakes are expected, but recordings from consistent historical events are not available. However, the absence of empirical data makes the evaluation of such scenarios and the interpretation of the simulation results very challenging. In this context, this paper presents the evaluation of the first EQSIM (v.1.1.0) ground-motion simulations generated for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) region. The current database, which is at the first stages of development, includes eight realizations of a Hayward Fault M w 7 event. The evaluation of the simulated motions is first conducted on the average ground-motion amplitudes through comparison against the NGA-W2 GMPEs and a selected population of real records. A methodology for selecting a population of real records consistent with the simulated event is proposed. The objective of the proposed evaluation is twofold: (1) build confidence in the realistic character of the simulated motions for their use in engineering applications and (2) offer a critical physics-based interpretation of the simulation results that can help improve key features of the simulation models. To further investigate the implications of using the simulated ground motions for site-specific structural assessments, the ASCE7-16 approach is employed for the analysis of two hazard-consistent near-field sites in the SFBA. Results are discussed. Furthermore, this study offers a critical review of the EQSIM (v.1.1.0) SFBA ground-motion simulations and suggestions for improving the earthquake rupture models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep convolutional autoencoders as generic feature extractors in seismological applications

The idea of using a deep autoencoder to encode seismic waveform features and then use them in different seismological applications is appealing. In this paper, we designed tests to evaluate this idea of using autoencoders as feature extractors for different seismological applications, such as event discrimination (i.e., earthquake vs. noise waveforms, earthquake vs. explosion waveforms), and phase picking. These tests involve training an autoencoder, either undercomplete or overcomplete, on a large amount of earthquake waveforms, and then using the trained encoder as a feature extractor with subsequent application layers (either a fully connected layer, or a convolutional layer plus a fully connected layer) to make the decision. By comparing the performance of these newly designed models against the baseline models trained from scratch, we conclude that the autoencoder feature extractor approach may only outperform the baseline under certain conditions, such as when the target problems require features that are similar to the autoencoder encoded features, when a relatively small amount of training data is available, and when certain model structures and training strategies are utilized. The model structure that works best in all these tests is an overcomplete autoencoder with a convolutional layer and a fully connected layer to make the estimation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reply to Comment by Peterie Et Al. on “Accelerated Fill‐Up of the Arbuckle Group Aquifer and Links to U.S. Midcontinent Seismicity”

Abstract Peterie et al. question one observation in our paper: associating pressure increases to injection volumes at distances of up to 25 km from an injection well. In this reply, we show that the comment misunderstands our analysis and the evidence that led to this conclusion. We also show that gauge‐depth‐corrected pressures, used by the authors to produce statewide pressure maps, are discrepant with the static fluid level data, provided in our original compilation and analysis. The discrepancies are a result of the pressure correction method employed, which naïvely substitutes formation pressure for bottomhole pressure to calculate wellbore fluid density. Their linearly interpolated pressure maps, based on sparse data, contain interpolation and extrapolation artifacts that contradict injection trends in the state, the Theis solution, and the superposition principle. We reiterate that pressure and static fluid level increases in Class I wells existed prior to 2013, most notably in central Kansas, where recent earthquakes are cited in the comment as evidence of a pressure plume emanating from the Kansas‐Oklahoma border, 90 km away. We show that the space‐time pattern of seismicity in this area is inconsistent with a northward propagating pressure plume and, instead, seismicity appears to be centered on and near a cluster of high‐rate injection wells, two of which are among the highest rate wells in the state. These observations, along with recent M4 + earthquakes during continued decreases in wastewater injection in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, question the usefulness of the comment for understanding and managing societally significant earthquakes.

Ansari, Esmail↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Review: Induced Seismicity During Geoenergy Development—A Hydromechanical Perspective

The basic triggering mechanism underlying induced seismicity traces back to the mid-1960s that relied on the process of pore-fluid pressure diffusion. The last decade has experienced a renaissance of induced seismicity research and data proliferation. An unprecedent opportunity is presented to us to synthesize the robust growth in knowledge. The objective of this article is to provide a concise review of the triggering mechanisms of induced earthquakes with a focus on hydro-mechanical processes. Four mechanisms are reviewed: pore-fluid pressure diffusion, poroelastic stress, Coulomb static stress transfer, and aseismic slip. For each, an introduction of the concept is presented, followed by case studies. Diving into these mechanisms sheds light on several outstanding questions. For example, why did some earthquakes occur far from fluid injection or after injection stopped? Our review converges on the following conclusions: (a) Pore-fluid pressure diffusion remains a basic mechanism for initiating inducing seismicity in the near-field. (b) Poroelastic stresses and aseismic slip play an important role in inducing seismicity in regions beyond the influence of pore-fluid pressure diffusion. (c) Coulomb static stress transfer from earlier seismicity is shown to be a viable mechanism for increasing stresses on mainshock faults. (d) Multiple mechanisms have operated concurrently or consecutively at most induced seismicity sites. (e) Carbon dioxide injection is succeeding without inducing earthquakes and much can be learned from its success. Future research opportunities exist in deepening the understanding of physical and chemical processes in the nexus of geoenergy development and fluid motion in the Earth’s crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A “Floatilla” of Airborne Seismometers for Venus

Abstract Barometers floating on high‐altitude balloons in the relatively clement cloud layer on Venus could detect and characterize acoustic waves generated by seismic activity, avoiding the need for high‐temperature electronics required for surface seismology. Garcia et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098844 ) recently demonstrated the detection of low‐frequency sound (infrasound) caused by earthquakes of magnitudes 7.3 and 7.5 from stratospheric balloons nearly 3,000 km away from the epicenter. They provided a preliminary demonstration of earthquake magnitude and location inversion, and the determination of S‐ and Rayleigh wave velocities using only their acoustic signature. Large earthquakes produce low‐frequency seismic waves that penetrate the interiors of planets; their detection at continental‐scale distances from a high‐vantage point demonstrates the feasibility of balloon‐based investigations of Venus' interior. We contextualize these results within the effort to perform seismology on Venus from balloons, discuss its limitations, and share perspectives on open research questions in this area.

Krishnamoorthy, Siddharth↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seismological Stress Drops for Confined Ruptures Are Invariant to Normal Stress

Seismic moment and rupture length can be combined to infer stress drop, a key parameter for assessing earthquakes. In natural earthquakes, stress drops are largely depth-independent, which is surprising given the expected dependence of frictional stress on normal stresses and hence overburden. We have developed a transparent experimental fault that allows direct observation of thousands of slip events, with ruptures that are fully contained within the fault. Surprisingly, the observed stress drops are largely independent of both the magnitude of normal stress and its heterogeneity, capturing the independence seen in nature. However, we observe larger, normal stress-dependent stress drops when the fault area is reduced, which allows slip events to frequently reach the edge of the interface. We conclude that confined ruptures have normal stress independent stress drops, and thus the depth-independent stress drops of tectonic earthquakes may be a consequence of their confined nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Frictional Behavior Downdip Along the Subduction Megathrust: Insights From Laboratory Experiments on Exhumed Samples at In Situ Conditions

Subduction megathrusts exhibit a spectrum of slip modes, including catastrophic earthquakes. Although the mechanical and frictional properties of materials sampled from subduction zones have been studied extensively, few datasets have been collected for compositions and at pressure and temperature conditions representative of those in situ. The Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan is a well-studied margin, and abundant data provide an opportunity to advance our understanding of fault and earthquake physics. Here, we use samples exhumed in the Shimanto and Sanbagawa Belts on Shikoku Island of southwest Japan that represent analogs for materials along the present-day megathrust at depths of ~5–>25 km, and we shear these at their peak in situ pressure-temperature (P-T) conditions. Effective normal stresses range from 28 to 192 MPa, and temperatures from 105°C to 470°C. We used pore fluid pressures of 45–240 MPa, corresponding to fluid overpressure ratios λ of 0.65 and 0.90. Slip velocities of 0.1–100 μm/s were used, in order to focus on the nucleation of instability and earthquakes. We found predominantly velocity-strengthening (inherently stable) behavior under all conditions for λ = 0.65. For λ = 0.90, velocity-weakening behavior was observed at 350°C, with velocity-strengthening behavior at lower and higher temperatures. The rate/state frictional stability parameter (a-b) increases with slip velocity at temperatures up to ~200°C and remains constant or decreases with slip velocity at higher temperatures. Altogether, our results demonstrate the potentially important roles of both temperature and slip velocity in controlling the distribution of stress and frictional rheology along subduction thrusts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Variable Continuous Bimaterial Interface in the San Jacinto Fault Zone Revealed by Dense Seismic Array Analysis of Fault Zone Head Waves

Key factors controlling earthquake ruptures include fault geometry, continuity, and seismic velocity structure around the fault. We present a novel tool that better informs deep bimaterial fault geometry embedded in distributed damage and seismicity, associated velocity contrasts across the fault, and their correlations with surface complexities. The method employs fault zone head and direct body waves and is applied to recordings from five spatiotemporally different seismic arrays along the complex San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) in southern California. We detect and distinguish these signals based on instantaneous phase coherence and relative energy in a cascading manner from one scale array to another. The analysis reveals a >70-km long continuous bimaterial interface within the SJFZ with several deep northeast dipping fault segments. The northern SJFZ, for instance, locates ~7 km northeast of its surface expression at 18-km depth. P-wave velocity contrasts range from near 0% to >15%, consistent with other bimaterial faults, and differ by a few % depending on fault-array azimuth, implying directional-dependent velocity contrasts. S-wave head waves and velocity contrasts are also imaged for the first time at the southern SJFZ, averaging to 2.9% in agreement with tomography results. The imaged geometry and continuity suggest the SJFZ initiated along remnant tectonic structures and translates to a rupture potential of M > 7.2, i.e., the sizes of its largest paleo-earthquakes. The P and S contrasts, and their ratios, have important implications for earthquake rupture speed, mode, directivity, and frictional heating along the SJFZ and other major faults globally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi‐Scale Seismic Imaging of the Ridgecrest, CA, Region With Waveform Inversion of Regional and Dense Array Data

Abstract We develop an inversion procedure for deriving multi‐scale velocity models with waveform inversions of earthquake and ambient noise data at multi‐frequency bands recorded by regional and dense sensor configurations. The method is applied for the area around the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake rupture zones, utilizing data recorded by regional stations and dense 2D and 1D arrays with station spacings of ∼5 km and ∼100 m, respectively. Starting with regional Vp, Vs models and locations of Ridgecrest aftershocks, the velocity models and event locations are improved iteratively by inversions of waveforms recorded by regional stations and the 2D array, using a minimum spectral element size of ∼600 m. Waveforms from local events recorded by dense 1D arrays across the M7.1 rupture zone with frequencies of up to 10 Hz are used to resolve small‐scale features of the rupture zone and shallow crust with a local spectral element size of 80 m. The refined models provide self‐consistent descriptions of the rupture zone and the shallow crust embedded in the regional structures. The results reveal pronounced low Vs and high Vp/Vs in the M6.4 and M7.1 rupture zones coinciding with concentrations of seismicity, and also around the Garlock fault and in several local basins. We also observe clear velocity contrasts across the Garlock fault with polarity reversals along strike and with depth. The obtained multi‐scale velocity models can be used to improve derivations of earthquake source properties, simulations of dynamic ruptures and ground motions, and the understanding of fault and tectonic processes in the region.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Seismic Wave Amplification in Sedimentary Basins Using 3D Wavefield Simulations: Nenana Basin, Central Alaska

We investigate seismic wave amplification in Nenana basin, central Alaska, using 3D seismic wavefield simulations. We quantify frequency-dependent amplification by comparing synthetic seismograms among four different seismic velocity models: (a) a tomographic model, (b) a tomographic model with the uppermost 6.5 km replaced by a 1D basin profile, (c) a tomographic model with an embedded ellipsoidal basin, and (d) a tomographic model with an embedded realistic basin. For each model we perform wavefield simulations accurate up to 2 Hz for a set of 10 different earthquakes, which provide a range of frequencies and incident angles for waves interacting with the basin. Average amplification ratios are four on the horizontal components and seven on the vertical component. The dominant influence of the amplification is the 3D geometry of the basin, not the slow-velocity profile near the surface. Our synthetic amplification ratios are in general agreement with amplification estimates obtained from 14 stations that recorded the same set of earthquakes. Our approach offers a general strategy for documenting frequency-dependent basin amplification for a region with realistic basin structures and local earthquakes.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting fault slip via transfer learning

Abstract Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly, primarily due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10’s-100’s of years and geophysical data typically exist for only a portion of an earthquake cycle. Sparse data presents a serious challenge to training machine learning models for predicting fault slip in Earth. Here we describe a transfer learning approach using numerical simulations to train a convolutional encoder-decoder that predicts fault-slip behavior in laboratory experiments. The model learns a mapping between acoustic emission and fault friction histories from numerical simulations, and generalizes to produce accurate predictions of laboratory fault friction. Notably, the predictions improve by further training the model latent space using only a portion of data from a single laboratory earthquake-cycle. The transfer learning results elucidate the potential of using models trained on numerical simulations and fine-tuned with small geophysical data sets for potential applications to faults in Earth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permeability-controlled migration of induced seismicity to deeper depths near Venus in North Texas

Abstract Migration of seismic events to deeper depths along basement faults over time has been observed in the wastewater injection sites, which can be correlated spatially and temporally to the propagation or retardation of pressure fronts and corresponding poroelastic response to given operation history. The seismicity rate model has been suggested as a physical indicator for the potential of earthquake nucleation along faults by quantifying poroelastic response to multiple well operations. Our field-scale model indicates that migrating patterns of 2015–2018 seismicity observed near Venus, TX are likely attributed to spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stressing rate constrained by the fault permeability. Even after reducing injection volumes since 2015, pore pressure continues to diffuse and steady transfer of elastic energy to the deep fault zone increases stressing rate consistently that can induce more frequent earthquakes at large distance scales. Sensitivity tests with variation in fault permeability show that (1) slow diffusion along a low-permeability fault limits earthquake nucleation near the injection interval or (2) rapid relaxation of pressure buildup within a high-permeability fault, caused by reducing injection volumes, may mitigate the seismic potential promptly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗