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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Development of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Evolution from MERRA to MERRA2.

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System Model - 5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO's MERRA2 reanalysis, the global mesoscale "nature run", the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of "resolution aware" parameters related to the moist physics were shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions, and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.

AGCM↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assimilating All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data to Improve NASA GEOS Forecasts and Analysis

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has been pursuing efforts to utilize all-sky (clear+cloudy+precipitating) MW radiance data and has developed a system to assimilate all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance data in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) during the last PMM funding period. The system provides additional constraints on the analysis process near the storm regions and adjusts the geophysical parameters such as precipitation, cloud, moisture, surface pressure, and wind by combining information from GMI radiance measurements and model forecasts in an optimal manner. The system proved that assimilating the GMI all-sky radiance data improve the GEOS atmospheric analyses and forecasts. This all-sky data framework has been included in the GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system since July 11, 2018 and assimilates all-sky GMI data in real-time for GEOS global analysis and forecast production at the GMAO. We are currently extending this all-sky GMI radiance data assimilation system to assimilate more all-sky MW radiance data from other sensors such as the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), and the Sounder for Atmospheric Profiling of Humidity in the Intertropics by Radiometery (SAPHIR) onboard the GPM constellation spacecrafts. Preliminary results from this extended all-sky system show increased benefit from cloud- and precipitation-affected MW radiances with much larger spatial and temporal coverages compared to the all-sky system assimilating GMI alone and improved GEOS forecast skills especially for lower tropospheric humidity fields.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
NASA NTRS2004

Aerospace Meteorology Lessons Learned Relative to Aerospace Vehicle Design and Operations

Aerospace Meteorology came into being in the 1950s as the development of rockets for military and civilian usage grew in the United States. The term was coined to identify those involved in the development of natural environment models, design/operational requirements, and environment measurement systems to support the needs of aerospace vehicles, both launch vehicles and spacecraft. It encompassed the atmospheric environment of the Earth, including Earth orbit environments. Several groups within the United States were active in this area, including the Department of Defense, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and a few of the aerospace industry groups. Some aerospace meteorology efforts were similar to those being undertaken relative to aviation interests. As part of the aerospace meteorology activities a number of lessons learned resulted that produced follow on efforts which benefited from these experiences, thus leading to the rather efficient and technologically current descriptions of terrestrial environment design requirements, prelaunch monitoring systems, and forecast capabilities available to support the development and operations of aerospace vehicles.

Vaughan, William W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Tropospheric chemical models

The differences in atmospheric composition over the globe and the short- and long-term variations in this composition are the net effect of several atmospheric and biospheric processes: biospheric emissions, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric chemical transformations and finally deposition back to the surface. Accurate and realistic atmospheric chemistry and circulation models are essential to interpret the observed global distributions and trends of atmospheric species in terms of these underlying processes. Comparisons between model predictions and observations test current understanding of these processes and models used in conjunction with inverse methods allow deductions of the rates of these processes from the observations. With the planned inclusion of at least CO and CH4 observations on the Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites, together with the large global data set expected from in situ observations under the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project, the further development of global three-dimensional high-resolution atmospheric chemistry and circulation models in order to interpret this new data is a high-priority endeavor.

Prinn, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Integrated Approach to Modeling Solar Electric Propulsion Vehicles During Long Duration, Near-Earth Orbit Transfers

Recent NASA interest in utilizing solar electronic propulsion (SEP) technology to transfer payloads, e.g. from low-Earth orbit (LEO) to higher energy geostationary-Earth orbit (GEO) or to Earth escape, has necessitated the development of high fidelity SEP vehicle models and simulations. These models and simulations need to be capable of capturing vehicle dynamics and sub-system interactions experienced during the transfer trajectories which are typically accomplished with continuous-burn (potentially interrupted by solar eclipse), long duration "spiral out" maneuvers taking several months or more to complete. This paper presents details of an integrated simulation approach achieved by combining a high fidelity vehicle simulation code with a detailed solar array model. The combined simulation tool gives researchers the functionality to study the integrated effects of various vehicle sub-systems (e.g. vehicle guidance, navigation and control (GN&C), electric propulsion system (EP)) with time varying power production. Results from a simulation model of a vehicle with a 50 kW class SEP system using the integrated tool are presented and compared to the results from another simulation model employing a 50 kW end-of-life (EOL) fixed power level assumption. These models simulate a vehicle under three degree of freedom dynamics (i.e. translational dynamics only) and include the effects of a targeting guidance algorithm (providing a "near optimal" transfer) during a LEO to near Earth escape (C (sub 3) = −2.0 km (sup 2) / sec (sup −2) spiral trajectory. The presented results include the impact of the fully integrated, time-varying solar array model (e.g. cumulative array degradation from traversing the Van Allen belts, impact of solar eclipses on the vehicle and the related temperature responses in the solar arrays due to operating in the Earth's thermal environment, high fidelity array power module, etc.); these are used to assess the impact on vehicle performance (i.e. propellant consumption) and transit times.

vehicle↗
NASA NTRS1990

Earth's external magnetic fields at low orbital altitudes

Under our Jun. 1987 proposal, Magnetic Signatures of Near-Earth Distributed Currents, we proposed to render operational a modeling procedure that had been previously developed to compute the magnetic effects of distributed currents flowing in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. After adaptation of the software to our computing environment we would apply the model to low altitude satellite orbits and would utilize the MAGSAT data suite to guide the analysis. During the first year, basic computer codes to run model systems of Birkeland and ionospheric currents and several graphical output routines were made operational on a VAX 780 in our research facility. Software performance was evaluated using an input matchstick ionospheric current array, field aligned currents were calculated and magnetic perturbations along hypothetical satellite orbits were calculated. The basic operation of the model was verified. Software routines to analyze and display MAGSAT satellite data in terms of deviations with respect to the earth's internal field were also made operational during the first year effort. The complete set of MAGSAT data to be used for evaluation of the models was received at the end of the first year. A detailed annual report in May 1989 described these first year activities completely. That first annual report is included by reference in this final report. This document summarizes our additional activities during the second year of effort and describes the modeling software, its operation, and includes as an attachment the deliverable computer software specified under the contract.

Klumpar, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Shuttle Laser Altimeter in an Accuracy Assessment of Global 1-Kilometer Digital Elevation Data

Shuttle Laser Altimeter (SLA) data have been used to evaluate the accuracy of GTOPO30, the first comprehensive, 1 km resolution, global topographic data set. GTOPO30 was developed by the USGS Eros Data Center (EDC), in part, to address NASA's needs for a global topographic model in support of remote sensing instruments aboard the Earth Observing System AM-1 spacecraft. SLA flew as a part of the STS-72 mission in January, 1996 observing the latitude band from +/- 28.5 deg, and on STS-85 in August, 1997 extending the observations to +/- 57 deg. Combining the SLA ranging data with shuttle position and pointing knowledge yields surface elevation data of very high vertical accuracy in an Earth-centered, absolute reference frame (2.8 m rms difference for SLA-01 with respect to ocean reference surface). Use of the well-determined mean sea surface reference for calibration allows propagation of high accuracy altimetry onto the continents. 436,635 SLA-01 land elevations were compared to the GTOPO30 grid after conversion to a mean sea level vertical datum using the Earth Geoid Model 96, jointly developed by Goddard and NIMA. The comparison reveals systematic elevation biases in southern Asia, Africa, Australia, and south America on the order 10's to 100 meters in the GTOPO30 compilation on spatial scales of 100's to 1000's of kilometers. These biases are likely due to vertical datum errors in the topographic source materials used to compile GTOPO30, which primarily consist of Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) digital elevation and topographic map products. These biases imply that elevation corrections applied to land gravity measurements using these DMA source materials will be biased, leading to errors in geoid models incorporating these land gravity data.

Harding, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Limb-darkening functions for the earth-atmosphere system over desert scenes

Alongtrack data collected with the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner instrument were used to study an observed limb-darkening phenomenon. A numerical model developed for the longwave exitance as a function of the SZA has agreed well with ERBE data, indicating that the atmosphere is in adiabatic, rather than radiative, equilibrium. A corrected form of the model has been defined for SZA over 60 deg. The model was used to parameterize diurnal data for the Sahara-Saudi and Australian deserts.

Brooks, D. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intelligent Control & Autonomy Branch Research Overview Research

The purpose of the subject presentation is to expose engineering students at Ohio University to ongoing work being performed by the Intelligent Control and Autonomy Branch (ICAB) at the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio. The presentation will start with some introductory material about the organization. This will be followed by an overview of Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) controls research and the ICAB’s support for the Space Launch System (SLS). One aspect of EAP is the integration of electrical motor/generators and other power systems components with turbine engine technology to create propulsion & power systems for single-aisle aircraft that are more fuel efficient and have lower emissions. The presentation will introduce some of the controls, systems health management, and modeling technologies developed by the ICAB to help realize EAP. NASA’s SLS is a super-heavy-lift launch vehicle that provides the foundation for human exploration beyond Earth’s orbit. The presentation will introduce capabilities developed by the ICAB to support the SLS Mission and Fault Management function which includes capabilities for abort, caution and warning, redundancy management, and safing. The presentation will conclude with information about internships with the NASA and the ICAB.

propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of Sub‐Grid Topographic Representations on Surface Energy Balance and Boundary Conditions in the E3SM Land Model: A Case Study in Sierra Nevada

Abstract Sub‐grid topographic heterogeneity has large impacts on surface energy balance and land‐atmosphere interactions. However, the impacts of representing sub‐grid topographic effects in land surface models (LSMs) on surface energy balance and boundary conditions remain unclear. This study analyzed and evaluated the impacts of sub‐grid topographic representations on surface energy balance, turbulent heat flux, and scalar (co‐)variances in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Three sub‐grid topographic representations in ELM were compared: (a) the default sub‐grid structure (D), (b) the recently developed sub‐grid topographic structure (T), and (c) high spatial resolution (1KM). Additionally, two different solar radiation schemes in ELM were compared: (a) the default plane‐parallel radiative transfer scheme (PP) and (b) the parameterization scheme (TOP) that accounts for sub‐grid topographic effects on solar radiation. A series of offline simulations with the three grid discretization structures (D, T, and 1KM) and two schemes of solar radiation (TOP and PP) were carried out using the Sierra Nevada, California. 1KM simulations with TOP well capture the spatial heterogeneity of surface fluxes compared to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensing data. There are significant differences between TOP and PP in the 1‐km simulated surface energy balance, but the differences in mean values and standard deviations become small when aggregated to the grid scale (i.e., 0.5°). The T configuration better mimics the 1KM simulations with TOP than the D configuration and better captures the sub‐grid topographic effects on surface energy balance and boundary conditions. These results underline the importance of representing sub‐grid topographic heterogeneities in LSMs and motivate future research to understand the sub‐grid topographic effects on land‐atmosphere interactions over mountainous areas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Coupling Through Learned Representations

Reliable climate predictions are important for making robust decisions in response to the changing climate. This project aims to reduce mis-modeling uncertainties arising from the representation of the land-atmosphere coupling in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by using a machine learning approach. This approach will use an encoder-decoder architecture to represent the information that is developed in the land model and given to the atmosphere model. The simulated data will be taken from the E3SM simulation. However, the incorporation of observed data into the simulated dataset reduces mis-modeling uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption

Abstract. This paper describes the addition of a stratospheric prognostic aerosol (SPA) capability – developed with the goal of accurately simulating sulfate aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere – in the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 2 (E3SMv2). The implementation includes changes to the four-mode Modal Aerosol Module microphysics in the stratosphere to allow for larger particle growth and more accurate stratospheric aerosol lifetime following the Pinatubo eruption. E3SMv2-SPA reasonably reproduces stratospheric aerosol lifetime, burden, aerosol optical depth, and top-of-atmosphere flux when compared to remote sensing observations. E3SMv2-SPA also has close agreement with the interactive chemistry–climate model CESM2-WACCM (Community Earth System Model version 2–Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) – which has a more complete chemical treatment – and the observationally constrained, prescribed volcanic aerosol treatment in E3SMv2. Global stratospheric aerosol size distributions identify the nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosol from volcanically injected SO2 from both major and minor volcanic eruptions from 1991 to 1993. The modeled aerosol effective radius is consistently lower than satellite and in situ measurements (max differences of ∼ 30 %). Comparisons with in situ size distribution samples indicate that this simulated underestimation in both E3SMv2-SPA and CESM2-WACCM is due to overly small accumulation and coarse-mode aerosols 6–18 months post-eruption, with E3SMv2-SPA simulating ∼ 50 % of the coarse-mode geometric mean diameters of observations 11 months post-eruption. Effective radii from the models and observations are used to calculate offline scattering and absorption efficiencies to explore the implications of smaller simulated aerosol size for the Pinatubo climate impacts. Scattering efficiencies at wavelengths of peak solar irradiance (∼ 0.5 µm) are 10 %–80 % higher for daily samples in models relative to observations through 1993, suggesting higher diffuse radiation at the surface and a larger cooling effect in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol; absorption efficiencies at the peak wavelengths of outgoing terrestrial radiation (∼ 10 µm) are 15 %–40 % lower for daily samples in models relative to observations, suggesting an underestimation in stratospheric heating in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol. These potential biases are based on aerosol size alone and do not take into account differences in the aerosol number. The overall agreement of E3SMv2-SPA with observations and its similar performance to the well-validated CESM2-WACCM makes E3SMv2-SPA a viable alternative to simulating climate impacts from stratospheric sulfate aerosols.

Brown, Hunter York (ORCID:0000000218147874)↗
NASA NTRS1975

Power spectra of geoid undulations

Data from spacecraft altimeters are expected to contribute to an improved determination of the marine geoid. To better define altimeter system design requirements for geoid recovery, amplitudes of geoid undulations at short wavelengths were examined. Models of detailed geoids in selected areas around the earth, developed from a combination of satellite derived spherical harmonics and 1 deg-by-1 deg area mean free-air gravity anomalies, were subjected to a spectral analysis. The resulting undulation power spectra were compared to existing estimates for the magnitude of geoid undulations at short wavelengths. The undulation spectra were found to be consistent with Kaula's rule of thumb, following an inverse third power relationship with spatial frequency for wavelengths at least as small as 300 km. The requirements imposed by this relationship on altimeter accuracy, data rate, and horizontal resolution to meet the goal of a detailed geoid description are discussed.

Brown, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Performance Tests of Snow-Related Variables Over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas Using a New Version of NASA GEOS-5 Land Surface Model that Includes the Snow Darkening Effect

The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GO CART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3 ; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [Ion.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1) was used.

Yasunari, Tppei J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA GMAO Integrated Earth System Analysis

An Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) is the only possible way to assimilate all the available observations of separate components of the earth system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land, constituents, etc) into a single consistent Coupled Data Assimilation System (CDAS). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is developing an IESA for Reanalysis in an incremental fashion by coupling different components- one at a time, for e.g., the MERRA-2 reanalysis coupled aerosol and meteorological data assimilation systems. Following a similar approach the ocean (including sea-ice) is being coupled to the atmosphere, starting with the air-sea interface. This presentation briefly outlines GMAO's reanalysis road map and summarizes our recent work in that direction.

Akella, Santha↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Arctic Research, Engagement, and Policy With GMAO’s Next Generation Reanalysis & Prediction Systems

Modeling efforts at NASA aim to advance scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes and to improve our ability to predict climate, weather, and natural hazards. These efforts are particularly relevant for communities, scientists and stakeholders working and living in the Arctic. Here, we highlight current and planned Earth system prediction and data assimilation products from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We invite feedback and discussion on GMAO’s model and reanalysis development in support of Arctic research, engagement, and policy.

Lauren C Andrews↗