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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Storage Enabled Flexibility of Conventional Generation Assets (StorFlex)

The power systems have faced progressively more demanding operational requirements over the last two decades. Several factors contribute to these challenging operating conditions, including load growth, aging infrastructure, increasing penetrations of distributed energy resources (DERs), electrification of the economy, and policy initiatives such as decarbonization. The power system and its components must provide high operational flexibility to mitigate these challenges. For example, the proliferation of intermittent DERs such as wind and solar has increased the need for conventional generation assets like hydropower plants to respond to sudden load-generation imbalances. The higher flexibility requirements for hydropower plants cause more wear and tear, potentially shortening the useful lifespan of hydropower turbines. To reduce the need for hydropower plants to follow sudden changes in the dispatch signal, we investigate their combined operation with the energy storage systems (ESSs; “ESS-based hybridization”). Our analyses focuses on improving the lifespan of hydropower plants through ESS-based hybridization. Wear and tear on hydropower turbines (particularly Francis turbines) is modeled using a loss-of-life concept that is based on damage experienced by the turbine due to various cycles of operation. Then, we show that using ESSs to offset some of the high variation increases the remaining life of the hydropower plants. To demonstrate this, a few modeling tools were developed for this work: (1) a dynamic model for various components of the turbine and its governor; (2) a control strategy that assigns a slow-varying dispatch signal to a hydropower unit versus a fastmoving signal to ESS, such that the overall power request remains the same; and (3) models for the financial analysis to quantify the economic merits of such a framework. We used the models we developed to analyze the dispatch pattern of an actual hydropower plant with a power output of 50 MW and a head height of 152 m. This work showed that ESS-based hybridization could extend the life of the hydropower plant by 5% on average. This extension in life was then used to estimate the economic benefit in terms of cost deferrals associated with hydropower plant maintenance and replacement: on average, $3.6 million. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the size of ESS and cost of turbines was performed to show the variation in benefits over the range of turbine costs and ESS sizes. Crucially, stacking damage reduction and lifetime extension with other ESS value streams such as providing ancillary services could substantially increase the financial benefits of ESS-based hybridization. The higher costs associated with ESS of appropriate size would make more financial sense when multiple value streams are stacked and co-optimized to extract the maximum benefit. This dimension will be explored in future work.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sulfite Is Not Required for N 2 Reduction Catalyzed by Mo-Nitrogenase

Mo-nitrogenase catalyzes the reduction of dinitrogen (N 2 ) to two ammonia (NH 3 ) at the active-site FeMo-cofactor. Substrate activation requires the accumulation of three or four electrons and protons as two Fe-bound hydrides and is coupled to obligatory H 2 release through reductive hydride elimination. Subsequent delivery of four or five additional electrons and protons to the bound N 2 yields two NH 3 molecules. Increasing evidence suggests that at least one belt sulfide within FeMo-cofactor is dynamically involved in the catalytic cycle. A recent report further proposed that sulfite (SO 3 2− ) is required for N 2 reduction, with sulfite binding required for NH 3 release and a subsequent six-electron reduction of the bound sulfite to regenerate the resting cofactor. To test this proposal, we conducted turnover studies of Mo-nitrogenase under sulfite-free conditions using a reduced viologen as reductant and protein preparations devoid of dithionite or sulfite. Under these conditions, nitrogenase effectively catalyzed both N 2 reduction and proton reduction, exhibiting steady-state turnover under N 2 for 6 min, with a turnover number exceeding 150, approaching that observed with dithionite as reductant. The same H 2 -formed/N 2 -reduced ratio was observed whether dithionite or the viologen species was used as reductant. Further, EPR spectroscopic analyses showed that the FeMo-cofactor returned to its resting state after multiple catalytic cycles in the absence of sulfite. Finally, physiological bypass of sulfite formation does not affect the capacity for diazotrophic growth of the model nitrogen-fixing organism Azotobacter vinelandii . Finally, these results demonstrate that sulfite is not required for Mo-nitrogenase-catalyzed N 2 reduction either in vitro or in vivo .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Management of Risk and Uncertainty Through Optimized Co-Operation of Transmission Systems and Microgrids with Responsive Loads (Final Report)

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. Ambitious national and state-level goals around the decarbonization of electricity relies on the integration of very high levels of renewable resources, most of which are variable and intermittent. The use of demand response is an ideal approach to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation and brings the consumer into the spotlight. Until recently, very little research had been conducted on the co-optimization of these two systems due to computational limitations. However, advances in computational capabilities, and the judicious use of decomposition methods and innovative approximation methods for high-dimension dynamic programming made this goal a viable objective for this project, leading to a fundamental shift in the ability to integrate and fully utilize demand-side resources. To this end, the modeling framework developed introduces a novel co-optimization framework, to include the operations of both the transmission and distribution systems (or microgrids) in operational decision making. This framework was used to analyze renewable and distributed generation along with responsive demand and to compare the capability of co-optimized systems to perform with higher levels of variable renewables. Results show that the use of a bi-level optimization approach is an appropriate structure, capable of co-optimizing a transmission system with multiple distribution systems and microgrids. While increasing the number of connected systems provides increasing flexibility for renewables integration this can also the economic benefits to the low-voltage subsystems with each additional system connected. Comparison of a traditional single-level decision structure with the co-optimization approach illustrates a reduction in overall system cost under co-optimization, while specific cost allocations to transmission and distribution systems are changed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of a Compressed-Air Energy Storage System Integrated with a Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Plant

To address the rising electricity demand and greenhouse gas concentration in the environment, considerable effort is being carried out across the globe on installing and operating renewable energy sources. However, the renewable energy production is affected by diurnal and seasonal variability. To ensure that the electric grid remains reliable and resilient even for the high penetration of renewables into the grid, various types of energy storage systems are being investigated. In this paper, a compressed-air energy storage (CAES) system integrated with a natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant is investigated where air is extracted from the gas turbine compressor or injected back into the gas turbine combustor when it is optimal to do so. First-principles dynamic models of the NGCC plant and CAES are developed along with the development of an economic model. The dynamic optimization of the integrated system is undertaken in the Python/Pyomo platform for maximizing the net present value (NPV). NPV optimization is undertaken for 14 regions/cases considering year-long locational marginal price (LMP) data with a 1 h interval. Design variables such as the storage capacity and storage pressure, as well as the operating variables such as the power plant load, air injection rate, and air extraction rate, are optimized. Results show that the integrated CAES system has a higher NPV than the NGCC-only system for all 14 regions, thus indicating the potential deployment of the integrated system under the assumption of the availability of caverns in close proximity to the NGCC plant. The levelized cost of storage is found to be in the range of 136–145 $/MWh. Roundtrip efficiency is found to be between 74.6–82.5%. A sensitivity study with respect to LMP shows that the LMP profile has a significant impact on the extent of air injection/extraction while capital expenditure reduction has a negligible effect.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Investigation of Low Cost, Low Thermal Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coating on HCCI Combustion, Efficiency, and Emissions

In-cylinder surface temperature is of heightened importance for Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) combustion since the combustion mechanism is thermo-kinetically driven. Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBCs) selectively manipulate the in-cylinder surface temperature, providing an avenue for improving thermal and combustion efficiency. A surface temperature swing during combustion/expansion reduces heat transfer losses, leading to more complete combustion and reduced emissions. At the same time, achieving a highly dynamic response sidesteps preheating of charge during intake and eliminates the volumetric efficiency penalty. The magnitude and temporal profile of the dynamic surface temperature swing is affected by the TBC material properties, thickness, morphology, engine speed, and heat flux from the combustion process. This study follows prior work of authors with Yttria Stabilized Zirconia, which systematically engineered coatings for HCCI combustion. Herein, a modeling study was used to assess the impacts of various TBC material properties, e.g. density, thickness, and thermal conductivity on the temperature swing effect. Reducing conductivity emerged as a most promising avenue, rather than reducing both the density and effective conductivity by increasing porosity, the current work emphasizes a material with natively low conductivity. A novel TBC formulation was developed, leverages a class of materials that, to the author’s best knowledge, have not been used as a thermal barrier coating previously. Here, a systematic experimental investigation was carried out using single-cylinder research engine. Experimental engine studies utilizing the novel ‘glassy’ low-K coating exhibit advanced ignition phasing and reduced combustion duration relative to the baseline engine. Heat transfer measurements indicate a net reduction in heat flux over the entire cycle, although main effect is felt during expansion, and the reduced heat transfer losses manifest in higher gross indicated thermal efficiency by approximately 5-6% on a relative basis.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of collisionality on turbulence in the edge of tokamak plasma using 3D global simulations

Collisionality is one of the key parameters in determining turbulent transport in the plasma edge, regulating phenomena such as 'shoulder formation', separation of scale lengths in the scrape-off layer (SOL), turbulence damping and zonal flow dynamics. Understanding its role is therefore of primary importance for future reactors like ITER. Getting reliable predictions and a better characterization of plasma flow properties when varying collisionality remains, however, a critical challenge for the simulations. This paper focuses on the impact of varying collisionality in a non-isothermal three-dimensional fluid model of the plasma edge. A high field side limited configuration encompassing open and closed magnetic field lines with parameters typical of a medium-sized tokamak is considered. The present model can consistently account for the variations of collisionality and its impact on both the parallel resistivity η ∥ and the ion and electron parallel thermal conductivities χ ∥e,i . Details on mean flow and turbulence properties are given. Changing collisionality leads to significant changes in the flow properties both on the mean and fluctuating quantities. In particular, lowering collisionality decreases the size of coherent structures, the fluctuation levels of turbulence, and steepens the density and temperature equilibrium profiles around the separatrix leading to a global reduction of the turbulent transport. The SOL width is observed to increase with collisionality, eventually resulting in the disappearance of the scale lengths separation between near and far SOL, consistently with previous experimental observations. At low collisionality, where the presence of narrow feature is well-established, a contribution of heat conduction increases up to compete with heat convection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding LIB Battery Electrodes Through Classical Electrochemical Interface Theory

Classical models of the electrochemical interface can be applied to complex and dynamic electrodes to understand important mechanisms that are relevant to device-level phenomena like calendar aging or cycle life. Here, we show that negative alloy electrodes with wide electrochemical windows cannot be assumed to have static interfaces throughout all states of charge. Under high states of charge, the interface -including the solid electrolyte interphase - has characteristics that resemble a highly polarized electrode far from the point of zero charge. Under these conditions, the interface can be understood through the Helmholtz model. At lower states of charge, the interface capacitance decreases and the space charge layer length increases. This transformation resembles a metal electrode approaching the point of zero charge which is understood through the Gouy-Chapman-Stern-Grahame model of the electrochemical interface. This transformation happens at both silicon and carbon-coated silicon interfaces. From voltage-limited cycling experiments, in the limit of the diffuse double layer, the silicon electrode impedance rises significantly in the first few cycles. This rise is related to the continuous electrochemical reduction of electrolyte components from an interface that is not electronically screened from the electrolyte. In other words, an electrode interface for batteries should resemble a 'Helmholtz-like' structure.

anode↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning modeling and model predictive control of a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

Closed-circuit reverse osmosis (CCRO) offers a flexible and energy-efficient alternative to conventional reverse osmosis by operating in a semi-batch mode that recycles brine, enabling higher recovery rates and reduced specific energy consumption (SEC). However, developing accurate, system-level dynamic models for CCRO remains challenging due to its nonlinear, multi-phase operation and sensitivity to variable feed water conditions. Traditional modeling approaches, such as NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs), often struggle to generalize across varying inlet feed concentrations, necessitating frequent parameter re-estimation and limiting their utility for real-time control applications. To address these limitations, we developed a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model trained on an extensive experimental data set from a CCRO pilot plant. The model accepts three inputs, feed flow rate, recirculation flow rate, and initial feed conductivity, and predicts three key outputs: reject conductivity, feed pump power draw, and recirculation pump power draw. We validated the LSTM model against experimental data, demonstrating its ability to distinguish between different feed conductivities and adapt to variable flow rates. Subsequently, we incorporated the LSTM model within a nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) scheme and conducted closed-loop simulations to optimize the integrated SEC (iSEC). In conclusion, the results project up to a 6% reduction in iSEC by using MPC to optimize performance over the entire experiment duration, without requiring any random excitation for data collection or parameter re-estimation.

Desalination↗
DOE OSTI2025

Segmental Dynamics and Vitrification in Associating Copolymer Melts: Role of Cluster Formation, Microdomains, and Cross-Linking

A microscopic statistical mechanical theory of the structure, self-assembly, and activated segmental relaxation is employed to study associating copolymer melts with high attractive sticker fractions, local clustering, and disordered microphase ordering. The stickers are dynamically pinned in a manner that does not affect equilibrium structure which mimics the much slower physical bond breaking process or postassembly cross-linking of sticky monomers. Local sticker clustering and microdomain spatial correlations significantly modify the activated relaxation of nonstickers and glass transition temperature, T g . A re-entrant glass-melting feature is predicted as sticker attraction strength is initially increased corresponding to a speed up of segmental relaxation, and hence reduction of T g relative to the cross-linked homopolymer network. A mechanistic analysis reveals three competing effects: a purely kinetic slowing down of nonstickers down due to cross-linking, disordering of the nonsticker local cage and weakening of effective forces they experience due to sticker physical clustering, and a longer range impact of microdomain scale correlations that results in nonmonotonic dynamical effects. At high enough attraction strength, a qualitative change emerges corresponding to a sticker fraction dependent elevation of T g , which eventually surpasses that of the cross-linked homopolymer network. Dynamically, the new physics arises from a complex evolution of the amplitude of the collective elastic field that dresses the large amplitude mobile segment hopping within a coupled local-nonlocal description of the alpha relaxation. Furthermore, the results are qualitatively consistent with recent experiments on associating PDMS and PPG telechelics of fixed sticker fraction but with chemically different end groups of variable attraction strengths. Finally, possible tests using simulation and the influence of material or model specific interaction potentials and other real world complications are discussed.

Copolymers↗
DOE OSTI2022

A comparison of neural network architectures for data-driven reduced-order modeling

The popularity of deep convolutional autoencoders (CAEs) has engendered new and effective reduced-order models (ROMs) for the simulation of large-scale dynamical systems. Despite this, it is still unknown whether deep CAEs provide superior performance over established linear techniques or other network-based methods in all modeling scenarios. To elucidate this, the effect of autoencoder architecture on its associated ROM is studied through the comparison of deep CAEs against two alternatives: a simple fully connected autoencoder, and a novel graph convolutional autoencoder. Through benchmark experiments, it is shown that the superior autoencoder architecture for a given ROM application is highly dependent on the size of the latent space and the structure of the snapshot data, with the proposed architecture demonstrating benefits on data with irregular connectivity when the latent space is sufficiently large.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Energy-Efficient Computing with Computational Research to Accelerate Energy Technology

NREL's computational sciences center hosts the largest high performance computing (HPC) capabilities dedicated to energy research while functioning as a living laboratory for energy-efficient computing. NREL's HPC capabilities support the research needs of the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). In ten years of operation, HPC use in EERE-sponsored research has grown by a factor of 30, including work in electricity generation, energy efficiency, transportation, and energy system modeling. This paper analyzes this research portfolio, providing examples of individual use cases. The paper documents NREL's history of operating one of the world's most energy-efficient data centers while examining pathways to reduce economic and environmental impact beyond reduction of Power Usage Efficiency (PUE). This paper concludes by examining the unique opportunities created for accelerating improvements in data center efficiency created by combining an HPC system dedicated to energy research and a research program in energy-efficient computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-mode evolution in a stochastic magnetic field

Abstract We present a multi-scale model of quasi-mode evolution in a stochastic magnetic field. The similarity between a quasi-mode and a ballooning mode enables us to address the challenges arising from the disparate geometries in the theories of ballooning modes in the presence of resonant magnetic perturbations. We obtain useful insights into our understanding of ballooning mode dynamics in a stochastic background. To maintain quasi-neutrality at all scales, the beat between the quasi-mode and the stochastic magnetic field drives microturbulence, which drives the turbulent background that promotes mixing and damps the quasi-mode. As a result of the broad mode structure of the quasi-mode, the turbulent viscosity and the turbulent diffusivity produced by the microturbulence are larger than those in our related study on resistive interchange modes. The stochastic magnetic field can also enhance the effective plasma inertia and reduce the effective drive, thereby slowing the mode growth. A nontrivial correlation between the microturbulence and the magnetic perturbations is shown to develop. This could account for the reduction in the Jensen–Shannon complexity of pedestal turbulence in the Resonant Magnetic Perturbation Edge-Localized Mode suppression phase observed in recent experiments. Directions for future experimental and theoretical studies are suggested.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Files and scripts to support manuscript Shuman et al 2023 FATES-SPITFIRE ecosystem assembly across tropics

The dataset includes the parameter and domain files, relevant output files, and scripts to generate simulations and perform analysis with Jupyter notebooks that support the manuscript Shuman, JK et al 2023 “Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire-trap” in the tropics: Insights from FATES_15.0.0”. We have adapted the fire-behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE, for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture, and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire burned area and its effects, which could fee back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period, but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m-1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m-1. The results support a positive grass-fire feedback across the region, and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chlorophyllase from Arabidopsis thaliana Reveals an Emerging Model for Controlling Chlorophyll Hydrolysis

Chlorophyll (Chl) is one of Nature’s most complex pigments to biosynthesize and derivatize. This pigment is vital for survival and also paradoxically toxic if overproduced or released from a protective protein scaffold. Therefore, along with the mass production of Chl, organisms also invest in mechanisms to control its degradation and recycling. One important enzyme that is involved in these latter processes is chlorophyllase. This enzyme is employed by numerous photosynthetic organisms to hydrolyze the phytol tail of Chl. Although traditionally thought to catalyze the first step of Chl degradation, recent work suggests that chlorophyllase is instead employed during times of abiotic stress or conditions that produce reactive oxygen species. However, the molecular details regarding how chlorophyllases are regulated to function under such conditions remain enigmatic. Here, we investigate the Arabidopsis thaliana chlorophyllase isoform AtCLH2 using site-directed mutagenesis, mass spectrometry, dynamic light scattering, size-exclusion multiangle light scattering, and both steady-state enzyme kinetic and thermal stability measurements. Through these experiments, we show that AtCLH2 exists as a monomer in solution and contains two disulfide bonds. One disulfide bond putatively maps to the active site, whereas the other links two N-terminal Cys residues together. These disulfide bonds are cleaved by chemical or chemical and protein-based reductants, respectively, and are integral to maintaining the activity, stability, and substrate scope of the enzyme. This work suggests that Cys residue oxidation in chlorophyllases is an emerging regulatory strategy for controlling the hydrolysis of Chl pigments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Investigation of Wall-Cooling Effect on Aero-Optical Distortions for Hypersonic Boundary Layer

Compressible wall-modeled large-eddy simulations of Mach 8 turbulent boundary-layer flows over a flat plate were carried out for the conditions of the hypersonic wind tunnel at Sandia National Laboratories. The simulations provide new insight into the effect of wall cooling on the aero-optical path distortions for hypersonic turbulent boundary-layer flows. Four different wall-to-recovery temperature ratios, 0.3, 0.48, 0.71, and 0.89, are considered. Despite the much lower grid resolution, the mean velocity, temperature, and resolved Reynolds stress profiles from the simulation for a temperature ratio of 0.48 are in good agreement with those from a reference direct numerical simulation. The normalized root-mean-square optical path difference obtained from the present simulations is compared with that from reference direct numerical simulations, Sandia experiments, as well as predictions obtained with a semi-analytical model by Notre Dame University. Here the present analysis focuses on the effect of wall cooling on the wall-normal density correlations, on key underlying assumptions of the aforementioned model such as the strong Reynolds analogy, and on the elevation angle effect on the optical path difference. Wall cooling is found to increase the velocity fluctuations and decrease the density fluctuations, resulting in an overall reduction of the normalized optical path distortion. Compared to the simulations, the basic strong Reynolds analogy overpredicts the temperature fluctuations for cooled walls. Also different from the strong Reynolds analogy, the velocity and temperature fluctuations are not perfectly anticorrelated. Finally, as the wall temperature is raised, the density correlation length, away from the wall but inside the boundary layer, increases significantly for beam paths tilted in the downstream direction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗