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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1991

Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components

The objective of this program is to develop generic load models with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades, and liquid oxygen (LOX) posts and system ducting. These models will be developed using two independent approaches. The first approach consists of using state-of-the-art probabilistic methods to describe the individual loading conditions and combinations of these loading conditions to synthesize the composite load spectra simulation. The methodology required to combine the various individual load simulation models (hot-gas dynamic, vibrations, instantaneous position, centrifugal field, etc.) into composite load spectra simulation models will be developed under this program. A computer code incorporating the various individual and composite load spectra models will be developed to construct the specific load model desired. The second approach, which is covered under the options portion of the contract, will consist of developing coupled models for composite load spectra simulation which combine the (deterministic) models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high-pressure and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients will then be determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data. This report covers the efforts of the third year of the contract. The overall program status is that the turbine blade loads have been completed and implemented. The transfer duct loads are defined and are being implemented. The thermal loads for all components are defined and coding is being developed. A dynamic pressure load model is under development. The parallel work on the probabilistic methodology is essentially completed. The overall effort is being integrated in an expert system code specifically developed for this project.

Newell, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Forcing Differences and Initial Conditions on Inter-Model Agreement in the VolMIP Volc-Pinatubo-Full Experiment

This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.

metadata↗

DOE OSTI2025

A fully ro-vibrationally resolved corona model for the molecular hydrogen Fulcher-𝛼 system

A ro-vibrationally resolved corona model for the molecular hydrogen Fulcher-𝛼 transition based on the Yacora solver is introduced. The model couples 1365 ro-vibrational levels of the 𝑋 1 ⁢𝛴$^+_𝑔$, 𝑑 3⁢ 𝛱 𝑢 and 𝑎 3 ⁢𝛴$^+_𝑔$ states via electron impact excitation from the ground state into the 𝑑 3⁢ 𝛱 𝑢 state and subsequent spontaneous emission into the 𝑎 3 ⁢𝛴$+_𝑔$ state. For the process of electron impact excitation a set of 45260 fully ro-vibrationally resolved cross sections calculated with the molecular convergent close-coupling (MCCC) method in the adiabatic-nuclei formulation is applied. The MCCC cross sections are compared with results of a scaling method used in other works, demonstrating the need for dedicated ro-vibrationally resolved cross sections. By post-processing the model output, entire Fulcher spectra can be simulated. These spectra are benchmarked with measurements from an inductively coupled plasma discharge at a pressure between 1.1–10 Pa and a RF power of 700 W. The model results agree very well with the experiment both in relative shape and in absolute value. A non-ro-vibrationally resolved, purely electronically resolved collisional radiative model for molecular hydrogen (including further states and reaction channels) is applied to investigate the validity of the corona approximation for the benchmark plasmas and the relevance of possible process extensions of the corona model. Furthermore, the influence of collisional quenching, autoionization and predissociation is discussed.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon ( Meiyu ) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Abstract The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu , produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

Tung, Yu‐Shiang↗

NASA NTRS2015

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2026

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Improved Coupled Fluid/Structural Dynamical Model

Improved algorithm developed for simulation of coupled motions of fluids and structures. Minimum requirement for correct simulation of damping is forces and velocities at interface compatible in models of structure and fluid at each time step. Improved algorithm, conforms to this requirement, involves fluid-transient model, structural modal/transient model, and an algebraic impedance/coupling subalgorithm. Use of this algorithm greatly improves computational stability.

Fenwick, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

ENSO Diversity Simulated in a Revised Cane-Zebiak Model

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon features rich sea surface temperature (SST) spatial pattern variations dominated by the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) patterns during its warm phase. Understanding such ENSO pattern diversity has been a subject under extensive research activity. To provide a framework for unveiling the fundamental dynamics of ENSO diversity, an intermediate coupled model based on the Cane-Zebiak-type framework, named RCZ, is established in this study. Compared with the original Cane-Zebiak model, RCZ consists of revised model formulation and well-tuned parameterization schemes. All model components are carefully validated against the observations via the standalone mode, in which the observed anomalous SST (wind stress) forcing is prescribed to drive the atmospheric (oceanic) component. The superiority of RCZ’s model components over those in the original Cane-Zebiak model is evidenced by their better performance in simulating the observations. Coupled simulation with RCZ satisfactorily reproduces aspects of the observed ENSO characteristics, including the spatial pattern, phase-locking, amplitude asymmetry, and, particularly, ENSO diversity/bi-modality. RCZ serves as a promising tool for studying dynamics of ENSO diversity as it resolves most of the relevant processes proposed in the literature, including atmospheric nonlinear convective heating, oceanic nonlinear dynamical heating, and the ENSO/westerly wind burst interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dynamics of Quasi-biennial Oscillations in Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled System

In this study, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in atmosphere-ocean coupled system is investigated using intermediate coupled model. Observation studies show that the easterly zonal winds anomalies prevail over the equatorial western Pacific during the warm phase of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At the time scale of QBO, SST variations and east Asia Summer monsoon rainfall are closely linked to the eastward propagating zonal winds anomalies originated from Indian ocean. To investigate the effect of zonal wind anomalies over western Pacific on the evolution of ENSO, simple anomalous winds are added to the western part of model domain as external forcing. Wind forcing is parameterized as a function of SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific with time lag. Time lag is adopted to mimic the relation between east Asian monsoon and ENSO. The results shows that the winds anomalies make coupled system oscillate through generating forced Kelvin waves even without the western boundary reflection of Rossby waves. Kelvin waves generated by external forcing are also crucial for the model to oscillate as well as Rossby wave reflections at the western boundary. When the monsoon forced Kelvin wave is strong during the northern winter, the coupled system damped out very quickly. In certain range of external winds amplitude and time lag, the model El Nino shows QBO features. It is suggested that the external wind forcing which is related to summer monsoon flow over western Pacific intensify the negative feedback process of off-equatorial Rossby waves and modify the ENSO periodicity.

Kim, K.-M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analytical methods for superresolution dislocation identification in dark-field X-ray microscopy

In this work, we develop several inference methods to estimate the position of dislocations from images generated using dark-field X-ray microscopy (DFXM)—achieving superresolution accuracy and principled uncertainty quantification. Using the framework of Bayesian inference, we incorporate models of the DFXM contrast mechanism and detector measurement noise, along with initial position estimates, into a statistical model coupling DFXM images with the dislocation position of interest. We motivate several position estimation and uncertainty quantification algorithms based on this model. We then demonstrate the accuracy of our primary estimation algorithm on synthetic realistic DFXM images of edge dislocations in single-crystal aluminum. We conclude with a discussion of our methods’ impact on future dislocation studies and possible future research avenues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

“Best” Iterative Coupled-Cluster Triples Model? More Evidence for 3CC

To follow up on the unexpectedly good performance of several coupled-cluster models with approximate inclusion of 3-body clusters we performed a more complete assessment of the 3CC method for accurate computational thermochemistry in the standard HEAT framework. New spin-integrated implementation of the 3CC method applicable to closed- and open-shell systems utilizes a new automated toolchain for derivation, optimization, and evaluation of operator algebra in many-body electronic structure. We found that with a double-ζ basis set the 3CC correlation energies and their atomization energy contributions are almost always more accurate (with respect to the CCSDTQ reference) than the CCSDT model as well as the standard CCSD(T) model. The mean absolute errors in cc-pVDZ {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} electronic (per valence electron) and atomization energies relative to the CCSDTQ reference for the HEAT data set, were {24, 70, 122} μE h /e and {0.46, 2.00, 2.58} kJ/mol, respectively. The mean absolute errors in the complete-basis-set limit {3CC, CCSDT, and CCSD(T)} atomization energies relative to the HEAT model reference, were {0.52, 2.00, and 1.07} kJ/mol, The significant and systematic reduction of the error by the 3CC method and its lower cost than CCSDT suggests it as a viable candidate for post- CCSD(T) thermochemistry applications, as well as the preferred alternative to CCSDT in general.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers

Abstract The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Tropical Precipitation Relations in CMIP6 Models with ARM Data

Abstract A set of diagnostics based on simple, statistical relationships between precipitation and the thermodynamic environment in observations is implemented to assess phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model behavior with respect to precipitation. Observational data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) permanent field observational sites are augmented with satellite observations of precipitation and temperature as an observational baseline. A robust relationship across observational datasets between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, in which conditionally averaged precipitation exhibits a sharp pickup at some critical CWV value, provides a useful convective onset diagnostic for climate model comparison. While a few models reproduce an appropriate precipitation pickup, most models begin their pickup at too low CWV and the increase in precipitation with increasing CWV is too weak. Convective transition statistics compiled in column relative humidity (CRH) partially compensate for model temperature biases—although imperfectly since the temperature dependence is more complex than that of column saturation. Significant errors remain in individual models and weak pickups are generally not improved. The conditional-average precipitation as a function of CRH can be decomposed into the product of the probability of raining and mean precipitation during raining times (conditional intensity). The pickup behavior is primarily dependent on the probability of raining near the transition and on the conditional intensity at higher CRH. Most models roughly capture the CRH dependence of these two factors. However, compensating biases often occur: model conditional intensity that is too low at a given CRH is compensated in part by excessive probability of precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

helios: An R package to process heating and cooling degrees for GCAM

helios is an open-source R package that estimates population-weighted heating and cooling degree-hours (HDH and CDH) and degree-days (HDD and CDD) at various temporal (e.g., energy dispatch segments, monthly, yearly) and spatial scales (e.g., U.S. states, global political regions, countries). The degree hour and degree day outputs from helios are used to inform electricity demand load in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) as well as in GCAM-USA (which is the version of GCAM with U.S. state-level details). helios uses a workflow with four steps: processing raw data; calculating heating and cooling degrees; visualizing performance diagnostics; and outputing results in various formats. There are two sources of widely-used climate data compatible with helios: (1) hourly climate data with 12-km resolution that are dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and projected using a thermal global warming (TGW) approach; and (2) daily climate data with 0.5-degree resolution from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that is bias-adjusted and statistical downscaled by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). In summary, helios is a model that standardizes methodology of heating and cooling degrees-hours and degree-days using publicly available data and advance the understanding of the impact of spatial and temporal temperature variability on building energy services.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward an improved estimate of climate sensitivity and its application to key climate metrics (Final Report)

The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower-troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward an improved estimate of climate sensitivity and its application to key climate metrics (Final Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implications of reduced-complexity aerosol thermodynamics on organic aerosol mass concentration and composition over North America

Atmospheric organic aerosol (OA) mass concentrations can be affected by water uptake through its impact on the gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile compounds. Current chemical transport models (CTMs) neglect this process. We have implemented the Binary Activity Thermodynamics model coupled to a volatility basis set partitioning scheme in the GEOS-Chem CTM, providing an efficient reduced-complexity OA model that predicts relative-humidity-dependent mixing and partitioning thermodynamics, while limiting the impact on computational efficiency. We provide a quantitative assessment of this water-sensitive OA treatment, focusing on a subdomain over North America. The updated OA scheme predicts a spatiotemporal mean enhancement in surface-level OA mass concentration of 145 % for January 2019 and 76 % for July 2019 compared to GEOS-Chem's most advanced OA scheme. The temporal mean surface-level OA organic mass concentration can increase by up to ∼590 % for January 2019 and ∼280 % for July 2019, with the greatest enhancements occurring over the ocean. The updated OA scheme also quantifies the OA-associated water content. The simulations show how different OA precursors and related OA surrogates contribute and respond to water uptake, including that due to changes in temperature and relative humidity over the diurnal cycle in selected winter and summer months. These results are independent of future CTM improvements involving updates to chemical reaction schemes and emission inventories. Our water-sensitive OA scheme allows for a better representation of the seasonal and regional variations in OA mass concentration in CTMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Dynamic stability of a buoyant quad-rotor aircraft

Stability characteristics of a buoyant quad-rotor aircraft (BQRA) in hover and forward flight are examined by considering linear, state-variable, and nonlinear flight simulation models of such a configuration. The effects of carrying a sling load on the vehicle dynamics is predicted by considering a coupled model of the two bodies. Inherent stability characteristics of the vehicle are analyzed and compared with those of a helicopter and an airship in free flight. Typical operational conditions that could lead to vehicle instability are described in the flight envelope of interest.

Nagabhushan, B. L.↗