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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Growth and Stability of Stratiform Carrollite (CuCo2S4) in the Tenke-Fungurume Ore District, Central African Copperbelt

Abstract Carrollite (CuCo2S4) is the main ore mineral of the critical battery metal cobalt, yet, surprisingly, detailed characterization of its thermodynamic properties and of its trace element contents remain sparse in the scientific literature. To fill these knowledge gaps, we generated the first thermodynamic data set for carrollite using well-characterized samples obtained from the stratiform sulfide mineralization style at Fungurume 88 deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Detailed mineralogical investigation of these same samples suggests that carrollite has limited ability to incorporate other ‘sweetener’ elements (except Cu and Ni) by substitution mechanisms. Modeling using CHNOSZ 2.0.0. software and an integrated Cu-Co-S-O thermodynamic data set provides insights into the stability of carrollite relative to other Co-bearing minerals under physicochemical conditions relevant to the Central African Copperbelt. Further exploration of these models indicates that dropping redox potential in the mineralizing system is insufficient to explain the mineral-scale and deposit-scale zonation patterns commonly observed in Cu-Co deposits of the Central African Copperbelt. Instead, factors such as increasing pH, decreasing T, decreasing sulfur activity, or some combination of changing physicochemical parameters may need to be invoked to explain these zonation trends. At the Fungurume 88 deposit, the absence of linnaeite (Co3S4) suggests that ore precipitation occurred at temperatures cooler than 211 °C. From our pH-logfO2 diagrams, and relative to higher temperatures, such a lower T regime is marked by a greater degree of offset between the modeled Cu and Co solubility contours, thus facilitating a more differentiated and zoned distribution of these two metals at the deposit scale. Our models are offered to the geoscience community as exceptionally useful tools for modeling and visualizing the Cu-Co-S-O systematics and may be applied to a variety of geological and geometallurgical questions in the Central African Copperbelt and other deposits elsewhere.

Mineralogy↗
DOE OSTI2023

pygwb: A Python-based Library for Gravitational-wave Background Searches

The collection of gravitational waves (GWs) that are either too weak or too numerous to be individually resolved is commonly referred to as the gravitational-wave background (GWB). A confident detection and model-driven characterization of such a signal will provide invaluable information about the evolution of the universe and the population of GW sources within it. We present a new, user-friendly, Python-based package for GW data analysis to search for an isotropic GWB in ground-based interferometer data. We employ cross-correlation spectra of GW detector pairs to construct an optimal estimator of the Gaussian and isotropic GWB, and Bayesian parameter estimation to constrain GWB models. The modularity and clarity of the code allow for both a shallow learning curve and flexibility in adjusting the analysis to one’s own needs. We describe the individual modules that make up pygwb, following the traditional steps of stochastic analyses carried out within the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA Collaboration. We then describe the built-in pipeline that combines the different modules and validate it with both mock data and real GW data from the O3 Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing run. We successfully recover all mock data injections and reproduce published results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments [https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.11872]. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved natural convection heat transfer correlations for reactor cavity cooling systems of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors: From computational fluid dynamics to Pronghorn

The Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) is a common reactor safety system in High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGR) that removes heat from the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) by radiation ($\sim 80\%$) and natural convection ($\sim 20\%$). For simulation of accident scenarios of HTGRs, intermediate fidelity and system codes models must be employed for limiting the models' execution time. While accurate quantification of the radiative heat transfer is available in these models, quantification of natural convection must rely on correlations of questionable accuracy for the Nusselt number. Commonly used correlations are based in experiments performed at low Rayleigh numbers and/or using isothermal walls in simplified geometries. Here, this work improves on the accuracy of natural convection heat transfer correlations in support for HTGR designs. These correlations include both local and average Nusselt numbers as a function of the global Rayleigh number, the local Rayleigh number, and the temperature profile at the hot wall of the RCCS. In the absence of dedicated experiments and the difficulty of performing high-fidelity simulations at realistic Rayleigh numbers, the data to fit the correlations are generated with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) using Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. First, a careful selection of the RANS turbulence model is performed by comparing the results obtained with different RANS turbulence models against high fidelity simulations of natural convection at $Ra \ 1 \times 10^{11}$ in a rectangular cavity. Next, the selected model is used to perform simulations of an HTGR cavity at different high Rayleigh numbers $\in [6.1 \times 10^{11},2.9 \times 10^{13}]$ to encompass several HTGR designs, assuming an isothermal RPV wall. The results obtained are used to fit a correlation for the average and space-varying Nusselt number as a function of the global and local Rayleigh numbers via a sparsity-promoting least-squares method. The selected RANS model is then used to perform simulations of a PBMR 400 HTGR cavity with the temperature profiles at the RPV wall obtained during a PLOFC transient. We use the results obtained to fit a temperature-dependent correction to the space-varying Nusselt number with the sparsity-promoting least-squares method. The results obtained in this work, enable system-level codes, such as Pronghorn, to perform higher-fidelity simulations of the heat exchange process in the RCCS while still maintaining a low computational cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-run Marginal CO2 Emission Rates Workbooks for 2020 Standard Scenarios Cambium Data

This dataset has been superseded by a new set of workbooks that can be found here: https://data.nlr.gov/submissions/183 These workbooks contain modeled estimates of long-run marginal CO2 emission rates (LRMER) for the contiguous United States. The LRMER is an estimate of the rate of emissions that would be either induced or avoided by a long-term (i.e., more than several years) change in electrical demand. It incorporates both the projected changes to the electric grid, as well as the potential for an incremental change in electrical demand to influence the structural evolution of the grid (i.e., the building and retiring of capital assets, such as generators and transmission lines). It is therefore distinct from the more-commonly-known short-run marginal, which treats grid assets as fixed. In addition to year-over-year data, the Levelized LRMER worksheet within each workbook is set up to produce a levelized long-run marginal emission rate based on user-provided inputs. These levelized LRMER values are intended for analysts to use when estimating the emissions induced (or avoided) by a long-term change in end-use electricity demand. Three future scenarios are provided in separate workbooks: A Mid-case (i.e., business-as-usual), and two scenarios with relatively higher or lower renewable energy costs. For more details on these scenarios, see the Standard Scenarios 2020 Report ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/77442.pdf ). For more data underlying each scenario, see the Standard Scenarios 2020 project (Cambium data) at https://cambium.nlr.gov/ . This data was produced as part of the Cambium project. For more details about the methodology, see the Cambium Documentation: Version 2020 ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/78239.pdf ). This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found at https://www.nlr.gov/analysis/cambium.html .

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectroscopic Characterization of redMaPPer Galaxy Clusters with DESI

Optical galaxy cluster identification algorithms such as redMaPPer promise to enable an array of astrophysical and cosmological studies, but suffer from biases whereby galaxies in front of and behind a galaxy cluster are mistakenly associated with the primary cluster halo. These projection effects caused by irreducible photometric redshift uncertainty must be quantified to facilitate the use of optical cluster catalogues. We present measurements of galaxy cluster projection effects and velocity dispersion using spectroscopy from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. Our findings are as follows: we confirm that the fraction of redMaPPer putative member galaxies mistakenly associated with cluster haloes is richness dependent, being more than twice as large at low richness than high richness; we present the first spectroscopic evidence of an increase in projection effects with increasing redshift, by as much as 25 per cent from $z\sim 0.1$ to $z\sim 0.2$; moreover, we find qualitative evidence for luminosity dependence in projection effects, with fainter galaxies being more commonly far behind clusters than their bright counterparts; finally, we fit the scaling relation between measured mean spectroscopic richness and velocity dispersion, finding an implied linear scaling between spectroscopic richness and halo mass. We discuss further directions for the application of spectroscopic data sets to improve use of optically selected clusters to test cosmological models.

clusters↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Unified Taxonomy for HVAC System Faults

Detecting and diagnosing HVAC faults is critical for maintaining building operation performance, reducing energy waste, and ensuring indoor comfort. An increasing deployment of commercial fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) software tools in commercial buildings in the past decade has significantly increased buildings’ operational reliability and reduced energy consumption. A massive amount of data has been generated by the FDD software tools. However, efficiently utilizing FDD data for ‘big data’ analytics, algorithm improvement, and other data-driven applications is challenging because the format and naming conventions of those data are very customized, unstructured, and hard to interpret. This paper presents the development of a unified taxonomy for HVAC faults. A taxonomy is an orderly classification of HVAC faults according to their characteristics and causal relations. The taxonomy includes fault categorization, physical hierarchy, fault library, relation model, and naming/tagging scheme. The taxonomy employs both a physical hierarchy of HVAC equipment and a cause-effect relationship model to reveal the root causes of faults in HVAC systems. A structured and standardized vocabulary library is developed to increase data representability and interpretability. The developed fault taxonomy can be used for HVAC system ‘big data’ analytics such as HVAC system fault prevalence analysis or the development of an HVAC FDD software standard. A common type of HVAC equipment-packaged rooftop unit (RTU) is used as an example to demonstrate the application of the developed fault taxonomy. Two RTU FDD software tools are used to show that after mapping FDD data according to the taxonomy, the meta-analysis of the multiple FDD reports is possible and efficient.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Surface Radiation over the Southern Ocean: An Overview of CAPRICORN, MARCUS, MICRE, and SOCRATES

Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understanding of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiative processes, and their interactions. Projects between 2016 and 2018 used in situ probes, radar, lidar, and other instruments to make comprehensive measurements of thermodynamics, surface radiation, cloud, precipitation, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles over the SO cold waters, and in ubiquitous liquid and mixed-phase clouds common to this pristine environment. Data including soundings were collected from the NSF–NCAR G-V aircraft flying north–south gradients south of Tasmania, at Macquarie Island, and on the R/V Investigator and RSV Aurora Australis. Synergistically these data characterize boundary layer and free troposphere environmental properties, and represent the most comprehensive data of this type available south of the oceanic polar front, in the cold sector of SO cyclones, and across seasons. Results show largely pristine environments with numerous small and few large aerosols above cloud, suggesting new particle formation and limited long-range transport from continents, high variability in CCN and cloud droplet concentrations, and ubiquitous supercooled water in thin, multilayered clouds, often with small-scale generating cells near cloud top. These observations demonstrate how cloud properties depend on aerosols while highlighting the importance of dynamics and turbulence that likely drive heterogeneity of cloud phase. Satellite retrievals confirmed low clouds were responsible for radiation biases. Furthermore, the combination of models and observations is examining how aerosols and meteorology couple to control SO water and energy budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Pd III Sulfate Dimer Initiates Rapid Methane Monofunctionalization by H Atom Abstraction

An electrogenerated Pd III 2 species in fuming sulfuric acid is competent for rapid and concurrent methane monohydroxylation to methyl bisulfate (CH 3 OSO 3 H) and methane sulfonation to methanesulfonic acid (CH 3 SO 3 H). In situ NMR at 50 °C is used to track methane transformation exclusively to CH 3 OSO 3 H and CH 3 SO 3 H at high conversions. Integrating a set of kinetic and computational studies, the mechanism of methane monofunctionalization by Pd III 2 is examined. Here, experimental rate laws and common kinetic isotope effects for CH 3 OSO 3 H and CH 3 SO 3 H formation suggest that both transformations proceed via a common rate-limiting C-H activation step. Introduction of O 2 or Pd II,III 2 suppresses CH 3 SO 3 H generation, indicating a radical chain sequence. Although the metal-metal bonded Pd III 2 complex is a net two-electron oxidant, our aggregate kinetic data point to a mechanistic model that features rate-limiting H atom abstraction by the Pd III 2 complex to generate a methyl radical intermediate. The CH 3 • intermediate then recombines with Pd II,III 2 to furnish a CH 3 Pd III 2 intermediate that reductively eliminates CH 3 OSO 3 H. Alternatively, the CH 3 intermediate can enter a chain reaction with SO 3 to generate CH 3 SO 3 H. DFT computations support the radical-based C-H activation by Pd III 2 and delineate H atom abstraction pathways with computed reaction barriers and kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) that are consistent with experimental data. These mechanistic investigations challenge the paradigm of electrophilic C-H activation and highlight H atom abstraction as a potent pathway for selective methane C-H oxidative functionalization at high reaction rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data for: Patel et al. Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

This dataset contains data and code used for the paper "Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data" [DOI COMING SOON]A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4. Measurements of these gases’ fluxes are often performed using closed-chamber incubations in the laboratory or in situ, i.e., in the field. Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. It is crucial to understand the magnitude and reasons for any differences, as these data are used to parametrize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we specifically examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO2 and CH4 measurements. We use Q10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses, because of the ubiquity of this metric in biological and Earth system sciences and its importance to many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ, and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q10, these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory (n = 1110) and field (n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH4 Q10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata. This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/kaizadp/field_lab_q10 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7106554).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in T AC (x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite T AC (x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). Here we address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their T AC (x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal T AC (x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced T AC (x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online learning of quadratic manifolds from streaming data for nonlinear dimensionality reduction and nonlinear model reduction

Here, this work introduces an online greedy method for constructing quadratic manifolds from streaming data, designed to enable in situ analysis of numerical simulation data on the Petabyte scale. Unlike traditional batch methods, which require all data to be available upfront and take multiple passes over the data, the proposed online greedy method incrementally updates quadratic manifolds in one pass as data points are received, eliminating the need for expensive disk input/output operations as well as storing and loading data points once they have been processed. A range of numerical examples demonstrate that the online greedy method learns accurate quadratic manifold embeddings while being capable of processing data that far exceed common disk input/output capabilities and volumes as well as main-memory sizes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-run Marginal Emission Rates for Electricity - Workbooks for 2021 Cambium Data

These workbooks contain modeled estimates of long-run marginal emission rates (LRMER) for the contiguous United States. The LRMER is an estimate of the rate of emissions that would be either induced or avoided by a long-term (i.e., more than several years) change in electrical demand. It incorporates both the projected changes to the electric grid, as well as the potential for an incremental change in electrical demand to influence the structural evolution of the grid (i.e., the building and retiring of capital assets, such as generators and transmission lines). It is therefore distinct from the more-commonly-known short-run marginal, which treats grid assets as fixed. The Levelized LRMER worksheet within each workbook is set up to produce a levelized long-run marginal emission rate based on user-provided inputs. These levelized LRMER values are intended for analysts to use when estimating the emissions induced (or avoided) by a long-term change in end-use electricity demand. There are two workbooks that supply the data at two different geographic resolutions: states and GEA regions (20 regions that are similar to, but not exactly the same as, the US EPA's eGRID regions). For more data underlying these emissions factors, see the Cambium 2021 project at https://cambium.nrel.gov/. For more details on the inputs into the scenarios available in the workbooks, see the Standard Scenarios 2021 Report (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80641.pdf). This data was produced as part of the Cambium project. For more details about the methodology, see the Cambium Documentation: Version 2021 (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81611.pdf). This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior

“Supermodeling” climate by allowing different models to assimilate data from one another in run time has been shown to give results superior to those of any one model and superior to any weighted average of model outputs. The only free parameters, connection strengths between corresponding variables in each pair of models, are determined using some form of machine learning. It is demonstrated that supermodeling succeeds because near critical states, interscale interactions are important but unresolved processes cannot be effectively represented diagnostically in any single parameterization scheme. In two examples, a pair of toy quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models of the midlatitudes and a pair of ECHAM5 models of the tropical Pacific atmosphere with a common ocean, supermodels dynamically combine parameterization schemes so as to capture criticality, associated critical structures, and the supporting scale interactions. The QG supermodeling scheme extends a previous configuration in which two such models synchronize with intermodel connections only between medium-scale components of the flow; here the connections are trained against a third “real” model. Intermittent blocking patterns characterize the critical behavior thus obtained, even where such patterns are missing in the constituent models. In the ECHAM-based climate supermodel, the corresponding critical structure is the single ITCZ pattern, a pattern that occurs in neither of the constituent models. In conclusion, for supermodels of both types, power spectra indicate enhanced interscale interactions in frequency or energy ranges of physical interest, in agreement with observed data, and supporting a generalized form of the self-organized criticality hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of an extensible property modeling framework in ESPEI with applications to molar volume and elastic stiffness models

Property models are becoming more widely adopted by commercial Calphad databases, but they are not nearly as common in non-commercial or traditional academic Calphad databases. A primary driver is that user-friendly Calphad modeling tools that support property models are not widely available. Here we present new property modeling capabilities that have been implemented in ESPEI (the Extensible, Self-optimizing Phase Equilibrium Infrastructure). These capabilities include both generating property model parameters from data and improvements to the algorithmic selection of the most appropriate model from a series of candidates. Additionally, two illustrative examples are given that use ESPEI to fit different property models. First, we generate molar volume model parameters for Group IV, V, and VI refractory BCC alloys based on the model by Lu et al. (2005). Second, we demonstrate the extensibility of ESPEI’s property modeling capabilities by implementing a custom PyCalphad model for BCC elastic stiffness parameters to generate and compare parameters to the ones assessed by Marker et al. (2018) using the same data. Property models generated by ESPEI can be used in PyCalphad or further optimized with uncertainty quantification using ESPEI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational investigations of Dienes defect- and vacancy-induced changes in the electronic and vibrational properties of carbon fiber structural units

Carbon fiber (CF) is a promising lightweight alternative to steel and is of significant interest for energy applications. As CF continues to find new uses and is exposed to new external conditions, a noninvasive method of monitoring its structural integrity is critical. Raman spectroscopy is a commonly used method for this monitoring; however, it is highly inferential, and the interpretation of the data is not always straightforward. In this work, we perform density functional theory (DFT) calculations to investigate changes in the vibrational properties of CF structural units (i.e., graphene and graphite) caused by monovacancy and Dienes defects as a foundation for modeling more complex defects that move our model toward that of realistic CF. Using large computational supercells, we can understand how these defects change the electronic structure and vibrational properties of graphene and graphite for interdefect distances near those of the lower experimental limit. The monovacancy opens an electronic bandgap at the K point. Although no such electronic gap is opened by the Dienes defect, both defects introduce flat defect bands near the Fermi energy. The Dienes defect creates long-range deviations of the phonons, leading to substantial broadening of the highest frequency optical modes in the band structure compared to that of the pristine material. In contrast, the phonon changes caused by the monovacancy are short range, and only minor changes in the band structure or phonon density of states were observed. These findings can assist in the interpretation of experimental results by providing atomic-scale insight into key electronic and vibrational features.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗