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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Effects of dynamical heat fluxes on model climate sensitivity

A coupled high and low latitude radiative-dynamical model of the annual mean northern hemisphere has been constructed in order to study the interactions of the vertical and meridional heat fluxes and their feedback effect on model climate sensitivity. The model's climate sensitivity to solar constant changes and CO2 increases is investigated, and the effect of feedback in the dynamical fluxes on model climate sensitivity is examined. Nonlinear interactions between heat fluxes and other feedbacks such as radiation-temperature, ice albedo, and humidity are also discussed.

Wang, W.-C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel bacterial protein family that catalyses nitrous oxide reduction

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a driver of global warming and climate change, has reached unprecedented concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere. Current N 2 O sources outpace N 2 O sinks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive understanding of processes that consume N 2 O. Microbes that express the enzyme N 2 O reductase (N 2 OR) convert N 2 O to climate change-neutral dinitrogen (N 2 ). Known N 2 ORs belong to the canonical clade I and clade II NosZ reductases and are considered key enzymes for N 2 O reduction. Here we report a previously unrecognized protein family with a role in N 2 O reduction, clade III lactonase-type N 2 OR (L-N 2 OR), which diverges in sequence from canonical NosZ but conserves three-dimensional protein structural features. Integrated physiological, metagenomic, proteomic and structural modelling studies demonstrate that L-N 2 ORs catalyse N 2 O reduction. L-N 2 OR genes occur in several phyla, predominantly in uncultured taxa with broad geographic distribution. Our findings expand the known diversity of N 2 ORs and implicate previously unrecognized taxa (for example, Nitrospinota) in N 2 O consumption. In conclusion, the expansion of N 2 OR diversity and the identification of a novel type of catalyst for N 2 O reduction advances the understanding of N 2 O sinks, has implications for greenhouse gas emission and climate change modelling, and expands opportunities for innovative biotechnologies aimed at curbing N 2 O emissions.

He, Guang 何广 [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (U↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗
DOE OSTI2013

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

Jones, Andrew D.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of timeslice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting radiative forcing and the associated composition changes. Here we introduce the various simulations performed under ACCMIP and the associated model output. The ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions lead to a significant range in emissions, mostly for ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results, but with outliers different enough to possibly affect their representation of climate impact on chemistry.

(ACCMIP)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California

Climate change and increased electrification of space and water heating in buildings can significantly affect future electricity demand and hourly demand profiles, which has implications for electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and capacity requirements. We use EnergyPlus to quantify building energy demand under historical and under several climate change projections of 32 kinds of building prototypes in 16 different climate zones of California and imposed these impacts on a year 2050 electric grid configuration by simulation in the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HIGRID) model. We find that climate change only prompted modest increases in grid resource capacity and negligible difference in greenhouse gas emissions since the additional electric load generally occurred during times with available renewable generation. Heating electrification, however, prompted a 30-40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but required significant grid resource capacity increases, due to the higher magnitude of load increases and lack of readily available renewable generation during the times when electrified heating loads occurred. Overall, this study translates climate change and electrification impacts to system-wide endpoint impacts on future electric grid configurations and highlights the complexities associated with translating building-level impacts to electric system-wide impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Aerosol Direct Radiative and Cloud Adjustment Effects on Surface Climate over Eastern China: Analyses of WRF Model Simulations

The WRF-simulated changes in clouds and climate due to the increased anthropogenic aerosols for the summers of 2002–08 (vs the 1970s) over eastern China were used to offline calculate the radiative forcings associated with aerosol–radiation (AR) and aerosol–cloud–radiation (ACR) interactions, which subsequently facilitated the interpretation of surface temperature changes. During this period, the increases of aerosol optical depth (ΔAOD) averaged over eastern China range from 0.18 in 2004 to 0.26 in 2007 as compared to corresponding cases in the 1970s, and the multiyear means (standard deviations) of AR and ACR forcings at the surface are −6.7 (0.58) and −3.5 (0.63) W m −2 , respectively, indicating the importance of cloud changes in affecting both the aerosol climate forcing and its interannual variation. The simulated mean surface cooling is 0.35°C, dominated by AR and ACR with a positive (cooling) feedback associated with changes in meteorology (~10%), and two negative (warming) feedbacks associated with decreases in latent (~70%) and sensible (~20%) heat fluxes. More detailed spatial characteristics were analyzed using ensemble simulations for the year 2008. Three regions—Jing-Jin-Ji (ΔAOD ~ 0.63), Sichuan basin (ΔAOD ~ 0.31), and middle Yangtze River valley (ΔAOD ~ 0.26)—at different climate regimes were selected to investigate the relative roles of AR and ACR. While the AR forcing is closely related to ΔAOD values, the ACR forcing presents different regional characteristics owing to cloud changes. In addition, the surface heat flux feedbacks are also different between regions. The study thus illustrates that ACR forcing is useful as a diagnostic parameter to unravel the complexity of climate change to aerosol forcing over eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mechanisms for an amplified precipitation seasonal cycle in the U.S. West Coast under global warming

The mean precipitation along the U.S. West Coast exhibits a pronounced seasonality change under warming. Here we explore the mechanisms for the seasonality change based on 37 climate models using moisture budget framework. The multi-model simulations show a robust enhancement of wet season precipitation over Washington-Oregon and a sharpened seasonal cycle with a stronger and narrower wet season over California. Both changes are predominantly caused by changes in the mean moisture convergence. Thermodynamic effect due to the divergence of increased moisture dominates the ‘wet-get-wetter’ seasonal enhancement over Washington-Oregon, where the climatological lower tropospheric convergence is strong. In contrast, mean zonal moisture advection due to seasonally-dependent changes in moisture gradient dominates the sharpened wet season over California. The seasonally-dependent changes in zonal moisture gradient originate from the effects of both the climatological and changes of land-sea thermal contrast on the changes in land-sea moisture contrast in different seasons under warming through the nonlinear Clausius–Clapeyron relation. More specifically, the stronger climatological land-sea thermal contrast in winter with warmer ocean than land dominates the change in land-sea moisture contrast, resulting in more moisture increase over ocean than land under warming and hence wet advection to California. However, in fall and spring, the future change of land-sea thermal contrast with larger warming over land than ocean dominates the changes in land-sea moisture contrast, inducing an opposite moisture gradient and hence dry advection to California. The sharpening seasonality adds to the complexity to water resource management in the future.

Dong, Lu↗
NASA NTRS1994

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Price, Colin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Scale Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Modeling Convective Processes from Plants to Planet

Research accomplishments include: 1)Two case studies of the effects of heterogeneous soil moisture and surface energy budgets on organization and propagation of convective precipitation during MC3E. 2) Development and evaluation of a new approach for simulating the effect of heterogeneous soil moisture at ARM-SGP using an innovative modeling approach. 3) Investigation of the effects of spatial coupling scale using multidecade global simulations in CESM with the multiscale modeling framework. 4) Exploration of changes to future precipitation intensity resulting from two different climate change scenarios using the multiscale model. 5) Provision of the new cloud-scale coupled multiscale Earth System Model to the larger community through the CESM process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of enhancing carbon sequestration and stock capacity in temperate and boreal European forests via changes to management regimes

Forest management practices might act as nature-based methods to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and slow anthropogenic climate change and thus support an EU forest-based climate change mitigation strategy. However, the extent to which diversified management actions could lead to quantitatively important changes in carbon sequestration and stocking capacity at the tree level remains to be thoroughly assessed. To that end, we used a state-of-the-science bio-geochemically based forest growth model to simulate effects of multiple forest management scenarios on net primary productivity (NPP) and potential carbon woody stocks (pCWS) under twenty scenarios of climate change in a suite of observed and virtual forest stands in temperate and boreal European forests. Previous modelling experiments indicated that the capacity of forests to assimilate and store atmospheric CO 2 in woody biomass is already being attained under business-as-usual forest management practices across a range of climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, we find that on the long-term, with increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and warming, managed forests show both higher productivity capacity and a larger potential pool size of stored carbon than unmanaged forests as long as thinning and tree harvesting are of moderate intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity

Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 ) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable to a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. In addition, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Climate Change Impacts on Natural Sulfur Production: Ocean Acidification and Community Shifts

Utilizing the reduced-complexity model Hector, a regional scale analysis was conducted quantifying the possible effects climate change may have on dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions within the oceans. The investigation began with a review of the sulfur cycle in modern Earth system models. We then expanded the biogeochemical representation within Hector to include a natural ocean component while accounting for acidification and planktonic community shifts. The report presents results from both a latitudinal and a global perspective. This new approach highlights disparate outcomes which have been inadequately characterized via planetary averages in past publications. Our findings suggest that natural sulfur emissions (ESN) may exert a forcing up to 4 times that of the CO 2 marine feedback, 0.62 and 0.15 Wm –2 , respectively, and reverse the radiative forcing sign in low latitudes. Additionally, sensitivity tests were conducted to demonstrate the need for further examination of the DMS loop. As a result, the present work attempts to include dynamic ESN within reduced-complexity simulations of the sulfur cycle, illustrating its impact on the global radiative budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗