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NASA NTRS2017

Challenges in the Verification of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being applied to a wide array of domains from search engines to autonomous vehicles. These algorithms, however, are notoriously complex and hard to verify. This work looks at the assumptions underlying machine learning algorithms as well as some of the challenges in trying to verify ML algorithms. Furthermore, we focus on the specific challenges of verifying reinforcement learning algorithms. These are highlighted using a specific example. Ultimately, we do not offer a solution to the complex problem of ML verification, but point out possible approaches for verification and interesting research opportunities.

Van Wesel, Perry↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗
NASA NTRS2017

Centennial Challenges Program Overview: How NASA Successfully Involves the General Public in the Solving of Current Technology Gaps

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Centennial Challenges Program, part of the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), addresses key technology needs of NASA and the nation, while facilitating new sources of innovation outside the traditional community. This is done by the direct engagement of the public at large, through the offering of Congressional authorized prize purses and associated challenges developed by NASA and the aerospace community and set up as a competition awarding the prize money for achieving the specified technology goal.

Roman, Monsi C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sleeping on Mars: A Hidden Challenge for Human Space Exploration

The purpose of this talk is to provide a general public audience with basic information about what it is like to sleep in space. Dr. Flynn-Evans will begin by highlighting how sleep is different in movies and science fiction compared to real life. She will next cover basic information about sleep and circadian rhythms, including how sleep works on earth. She will explain how people have circadian rhythms of different lengths and how the circadian clock has to be re-set each day. She will also describe how jet-lag works as an example of what happens during circadian misalignment. Dr. Flynn-Evans will also describe how sleep is different in space and will highlight the challenges that astronauts face in low-earth orbit. She will discuss how astronauts have a shorter sleep duration in space relative to on the ground and how their schedules can shift due to operational constraints. She will also describe how these issues affect alertness and performance. She will then discuss how sleep and scheduling may be different on a long-duration mission to Mars. She will discuss the differences in light and day length on earth and mars and illustrate how those differences pose significant challenges to sleep and circadian rhythms.

Flynn-Evans, Erin↗
NASA NTRS2018

Verification and Validation Challenges for Adaptive Flight Control of Complex Autonomous Systems

Autonomy of aerospace systems requires the ability for flight control systems to be able to adapt to complex uncertain dynamic environment. In spite of the five decades of research in adaptive control, the fact still remains that currently no adaptive control system has ever been deployed on any safety-critical or human-rated production systems such as passenger transport aircraft. The problem lies in the difficulty with the certification of adaptive control systems since existing certification methods cannot readily be used for nonlinear adaptive control systems. Research to address the notion of metrics for adaptive control began to appear in the recent years. These metrics, if accepted, could pave a path towards certification that would potentially lead to the adoption of adaptive control as a future control technology for safety-critical and human-rated production systems. Development of certifiable adaptive control systems represents a major challenge to overcome. Adaptive control systems with learning algorithms will never become part of the future unless it can be proven that they are highly safe and reliable. Rigorous methods for adaptive control software verification and validation must therefore be developed to ensure that adaptive control system software failures will not occur, to verify that the adaptive control system functions as required, to eliminate unintended functionality, and to demonstrate that certification requirements imposed by regulatory bodies such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) can be satisfied. This presentation will discuss some of the technical issues with adaptive flight control and related V&V challenges.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Overview of Science Challenges Pertaining to our Understanding of Extreme Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Vulnerability of man-made infrastructure to Earth-directed space weather events is a serious concern for today's technology-dependent society. Space weather-driven geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can disrupt operation of extended electrically conducting technological systems. The threat of adverse impacts on critical technological infrastructure, like power grids, oil and gas pipelines, and communication networks, has sparked renewed interest in extreme space weather. Because extreme space weather events have low occurrence rate but potentially high impact, this presents a major challenge for our understanding of extreme GIC activity. In this chapter, we discuss some of the key science challenges pertaining to our understanding of extreme events. In addition, we present an overview of GICs including highlights of severe impacts over the last 80 years and recent U.S. Federal actions relevant to this community.

Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sleeping in Space: An Unexpected Challenge for Future Mars Explorers

This talk will serve as the keynote address for a research symposium being held at Washington State University. The purpose of the talk is to provide researchers and students at WSU with an overview about what it is like to sleep in space. Dr. Flynn-Evans will begin by highlighting how sleep is different in movies and science fiction compared to real life. She will next cover basic information about sleep and circadian rhythms, including how sleep works on earth. She will explain how people have circadian rhythms of different lengths and how the circadian clock has to be re-set each day. She will also describe how jet-lag works as an example of what happens during circadian misalignment. Dr. Flynn-Evans will also describe how sleep is different in space and will highlight the challenges that astronauts face in low-earth orbit. She will discuss how astronauts have a shorter sleep duration in space relative to on the ground and how their schedules can shift due to operational constraints. She will also describe how these issues affect alertness and performance. She will then discuss how sleep and scheduling may be different on a long-duration mission to Mars. She will discuss the differences in light and day length on earth and mars and illustrate how those differences pose significant challenges to sleep and circadian rhythms.

Flynn-Evans, Erin↗
NASA NTRS2018

Challenges and Opportunities in Gen3 Embedded Cooling with High-Quality Microgap Flow

Gen3, Embedded Cooling, promises to revolutionize thermal management of advanced microelectronic systems by eliminating the sequential conductive and interfacial thermal resistances which dominate the present 'remote cooling' paradigm. Single-phase interchip microfluidic flow with high thermal conductivity chips and substrates has been used successfully to cool single transistors dissipating more than 40kW/sq cm, but efficient heat removal from transistor arrays, larger chips, and chip stacks operating at these prodigious heat fluxes would require the use of high vapor fraction (quality), two-phase cooling in intra- and inter-chip microgap channels. The motivation, as well as the challenges and opportunities associated with evaporative embedded cooling in realistic form factors, is the focus of this paper. The paper will begin with a brief review of the history of thermal packaging, reflecting the 70-year 'inward migration' of cooling technology from the computer-room, to the rack, and then to the single chip and multichip module with 'remote' or attached air- and liquid-cooled coldplates. Discussion of the limitations of this approach and recent results from single-phase embedded cooling will follow. This will set the stage for discussion of the development challenges associated with application of this Gen3 thermal management paradigm to commercial semiconductor hardware, including dealing with the effects of channel length, orientation, and manifold-driven centrifugal acceleration on the governing behavior.

microchannel↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA's Earth Observing Data and Information System - Near-Term Challenges

NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been a central component of the NASA Earth observation program since the 1990's. EOSDIS manages data covering a wide range of Earth science disciplines including cryosphere, land cover change, polar processes, field campaigns, ocean surface, digital elevation, atmosphere dynamics and composition, and inter-disciplinary research, and many others. One of the key components of EOSDIS is a set of twelve discipline-based Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) distributed across the United States. Managed by NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center, these DAACs serve over 3 million users globally. The ESDIS Project provides the infrastructure support for EOSDIS, which includes other components such as the Science Investigator-led Processing systems (SIPS), common metadata and metrics management systems, specialized network systems, standards management, and centralized support for use of commercial cloud capabilities. Given the long-term requirements, and the rapid pace of information technology and changing expectations of the user community, EOSDIS has evolved continually over the past three decades. However, many challenges remain. Challenges addressed in this paper include: growing volume and variety, achieving consistency across a diverse set of data producers, managing information about a large number of datasets, migration to a cloud computing environment, optimizing data discovery and access, incorporating user feedback from a diverse community, keeping metadata updated as data collections grow and age, and ensuring that all the content needed for understanding datasets by future users is identified and preserved.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Results of NASA Technical Challenge to Demonstrate Two-Speed Drive for Vertical Lift Vehicle

Currently, manned vertical lift vehicles are flown in a manner such that the rotors operate over a narrow range of rotating speed regardless if the vehicle's flight condition is one of vertical takeoff and landing, hover, or forward cruise. The propulsion systems are optimized for operation at the same, corresponding narrow range of rotor speed. However, certain missions and markets benefit greatly if the rotor speed can be adjusted over a wide range of speed to match demands of different missions and flight regimes. A vehicle that can operate with a wide range of rotor speeds would address key barriers to enable new markets and missions for vertical lift vehicles. Key barriers addressed by the wide-range of rotor speed include noise reduced via lower rpm rotor, increase of maximum forward flight speed, increased payload and range, reduced fuel burn, and lower operating costs. A new paradigm for the propulsion system is needed to enable these key benefits. One viable approach is to make use of a two-speed ratio drive system such that the engine can continue to operate over a narrow speed range, whereby engine performance is optimal, while adjusting the rotor speed as needed using the two-speed drive system. Motivated by such needs and by results of several system studies, a NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology Challenge was established to develop and demonstrate required technologies and designs for achieving a 50% reduction in rotor rpm via a two-speed drive system that incurs less than 2% power loss and maintains current power-to-weight ratios. The technical challenge work was completed and the technical objectives were achieved. This report describes the motivations, the research approach and the significant outcomes.

Transmissions↗
NASA NTRS2017

Technical Challenges and Barriers Affecting Turbo-Electric and Hybrid Electric Aircraft Propulsion

In order to meet aggressive aircraft performance goals set by NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, the Glenn Research Center (GRC) is leading research and development of electrified aircraft propulsion systems with electricity being generated from a gas turbine engine or combination of gas turbine engine and an alternate energy source. The presentation will provide an overview of technical challenges and barriers affecting the development and implementation of turboelectric and hybrid electric systems. Advances will be required in multiple areas, which include energy storage, electrical machines, power transmission, power electronics, control systems, materials, thermal management, and multi-scale modeling tools. The presentation will summarize current GRC activities in these areas. Challenges associated with integration and demonstration of multiple technologies at the system level will be presented.

Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2016

Space: It's Not What It Used to Be. A Goddard Approach to This Challenge, Questions About SmallSats, a Few Answers, and the Need for Transformative Thought in a Transformative Time

The "final frontier" is not what is used to be. Advancements in systems capabilities, easier access to orbit, a rapidly expanding spacefaring community saddled with imagination, and innovative approaches to mitigate chronic fiscal constraints are all converging to create novel spaceflight systems and mission architectures. Persons content to apply yesterday's thought to today's challenges stand the risk of finding themselves following instead of leading. The Dellingr 6U CubeSat project ongoing at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is demonstrating that while there is great potential to achieve compelling science, new systems and processes are required to fully leverage the cost and schedule efficiencies small satellites can yield. In addition, realizing the potential of these platforms in environments more challenging than benign low earth orbit requires spacecraft systems designed for reliable or resilient operation, and reliable components and subsystems.

Johnson, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Challenge Posed by Geomagnetic Activity to Electric Power Reliability: Evidence from England and Wales

This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half-hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out-of-sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root-mean-square error of the out-of-sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

Forbes, Kevin F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Challenges of Measuring Methane from Space with a Lidar

The global and regional quantification of methane fluxes and identification of its sources and sinks has been highlighted as one of the goals of the NASA 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Detecting methane from space and airborne platforms with an active (laser) remote sensing instrument presents several unique technology and measurement challenges. The instrument must have a single frequency, narrow-linewidth light source, and photon-sensitive detector at the right spectral region to make continuous measurements from orbit, day and night, all seasons and at all latitudes. It must have a high signal to noise ratio and must be relatively immune to biases from aerosol/cloud scattering, spectroscopic and meteorological data uncertainties, and instrument systematic errors. At Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), in collaboration with industry, we have developed an airborne instrument to measure methane. Our instrument is a nadir-viewing lidar that uses Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA), to measure methane near 1.65 µm. We sample the absorption line using multiple wavelengths from a narrow linewidth laser source and a sensitive photodetector. This measurement approach provides maximum information content about the CH4 column, and minimizes biases in the XCH4 retrieval. In this paper, we will review our progress to date and discuss the technology challenges, options and tradeoffs to measure methane from space and airborne platforms.

airborne instruments↗
NASA NTRS2018

Challenges in Development of Online Visualization and Analysis Tools for Satellite Data

Over the years, various online visualization and analysis tools have been developed to facilitate satellite data access and help scientific users around the world to conduct research and develop applications (e.g., data product evaluation, what-if questions, etc.). For those who are new to satellite data products, using them can be a daunting task due to many obstacles in data processing such as data formats, complex data structures, special software packages, unfamiliar terminology, etc., especially when one is not sure whether a dataset is suitable for his/er research project. Even for experienced users, developing software for data processing and analysis can be a costly and time-consuming task. Online visualization tools can overcome many of these difficulties and allow users to focus on scientific questions. For example, Giovanni (the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure, https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov), developed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), allows access over 1900 satellite and model variables in 82 measurement groups of 8 disciplines without downloading data and software. Main features include basic functions for data analysis and visualization, data provenance, output data in different formats (ASCII, NetCDF, GeoTIFF), and more. Over the years, ~1700 peer-reviewed publications in different disciplines have been benefited from Giovanni in research activities (e.g. initial investigation, what-if questions, product evaluation). Despite the success of online visualization and analysis tools, challenges and new opportunities still exist and more can be done with new requirements and technology. Examples are: a) how to increase the efficiency of dataset search by enhancing intuitive aspects; b) how to facilitate interdisciplinary research; c) how to provide data quality information; d) how to engage users to participate in data quality assessment; and more. NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) satellite-based data products are processed at various levels ranging from Level 0 to Level 4. While most users use data products at higher levels (Level-3 and 4), products at lower levels are still important for case studies, algorithm development, ground validation, etc. In this presentation, we will use Giovanni as an example to present and discuss challenges and near-future opportunities for satellite data online visualization and analysis tools.

Liu, Zhong↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Little Photometer That Could: Technical Challenges and Science Results from the Kepler Mission

The Kepler spacecraft launched on March 7, 2009, initiating NASA's first search for Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars. Since launch, Kepler has announced the discovery of 17 exoplanets, including a system of six transiting a Sun-like star, Kepler-11, and the first confirmed rocky planet, Kepler-10b, with a radius of 1.4 that of Earth. Kepler is proving to be a cornucopia of discoveries: it has identified over 1200 candidate planets based on the first 120 days of observations, including 54 that are in or near the habitable zone of their stars, and 68 that are 1.2 Earth radii or smaller. An astounding 408 of these planetary candidates are found in 170 multiple systems, demonstrating the compactness and flatness of planetary systems composed of small planets. Never before has there been a photometer capable of reaching a precision near 20 ppm in 6.5 hours and capable of conducting nearly continuous and uninterrupted observations for months to years. In addition to exoplanets, Kepler is providing a wealth of astrophysics, and is revolutionizing the field of asteroseismology. Designing and building the Kepler photometer and the software systems that process and analyze the resulting data to make the discoveries presented a daunting set of challenges, including how to manage the large data volume. The challenges continue into flight operations, as the photometer is sensitive to its thermal environment, complicating the task of detecting 84 ppm drops in brightness corresponding to Earth-size planets transiting Sun-like stars.

Kepler Mission↗
NASA NTRS2016

Productivity Challenges for Mars Rover Operations

Achieving consistently high levels of productivity for surface exploration missions has been a challenge for Mars missions. While the rovers have made major discoveries and accomplished a large number of objectives, they often require a great deal of effort from the operations teams and achievingobjectives can take longer than anticipated. This paper describes the early stages of a multi-year project to investigate solutions for enhancing surface mission productivity. A primary focus of this early stage is to conduct in-depth studies of Mars Science Laboratory science campaigns to gain a deeper understanding of the factors that impact productivity, and to use this understanding to identify potential changes to flight software and ground operations practices to increase productivity. We present the science campaigns we have selected along with a conceptual model of how surface missions achieve objectives that is used to guide the study. We also provide some early thoughts on the technologies, and their interactions, which we believe will play an important role in addressing surface mission productivity challenges.We are in the early stages of a multi-year project to studyand address productivity challenges of future surface missions. We have identified campaigns from the MSL missionfor study which we believe will yield valuable informationabout the nature of surface mission productivity challenges.Based on preliminary analysis from the data collected weanticipate that the lessons from these case studies will helpdevelop and mature our concepts for changes to flight andground systems to address these challenges.While the focus of our work is on Mars rover missions, webelieve the concepts in the work will be applicable to a variety of in-situ explorers, including Venus, and Titan, as wellas orbital missions, such as the Europa orbiter. These missions will also benefit from the ability to adapt and respondto the latest state of the spacecraft and its environment.

Gaines, Daniel↗