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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 757 records · Page 42
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The bill alignment test: Identifying trade-offs with residential rate design options

The proliferation of smart meter data allows the application of new analytic methods to inform regulatory deliberations. The bill alignment test (BAT) method, which compares the costs allocated to each residential customer with their electric bill, is introduced to help regulators consider how a proposed rate design balances various regulatory criteria. The BAT requires an explicit statement of preferences by policymakers or stakeholders and choices about allocating residual costs unassociated with customer-level causality. The BAT is applied to more than 35,000 smart-meter customer load profiles to assess the trade-offs associated with proposed rate designs. Here this example demonstrates the impact of residual cost allocation preferences and tariff design choices on proposed tariff evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Classification and computation of extreme events in turbulent combustion

In the design of practical combustion systems, ensuring safety and reliability is an important requirement. For instance, reliably avoiding lean blowout, flame flashback or inlet unstart is critical for ensuring safe operation. Currently, the science of predicting such events is based on prior experience, limited modeling or diagnostic tools and purely statistical approaches. Even though computational and experimental tools for studying combustion devices have vastly advanced in the last three decades, the analysis of such failure events has not been pursued widely. While the use of data for model development and calibration is being widely accepted, the extension to failure events introduces numerous challenges. In particular, the focus here is on so-called data-poor problems, where the cost of generating data is extremely high and is not easily amenable to existing computational and experimental approaches. Data-poor problems are particularly relevant when related to extreme events (also called anomalous events) that can lead to catastrophic failure of the system. It is argued that transient events that describe such failure can have different causal mechanisms. To develop the scientific inference process, a classification of such problems is used to determine specific modeling paths as well as computational tools needed. Research opportunities in the emerging field of extreme event prediction are highlighted in order to identify critical and immediate needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do atoms age?

Time evolution generically entangles a quantum state with environmental degrees of freedom. The resulting increase in entropy changes the properties of that quantum system leading to “aging”. It is interesting to ask if this familiar property also applies to simple, single particle quantum systems such as the decay of a radioactive particle. We propose a test of such aging in an ion clock setup where we probe for temporal changes to the energies of the electronic state of an ion containing a radioactive nucleus. Such effects are absent in standard quantum mechanics and this test is thus a potent null test for violations of quantum mechanics. As a proof of principle, we show that these effects exist in causal non-linear modifications of quantum mechanics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic fluctuations and the relaxation time in transient relativistic fluids

We argue that the ratio between the shear viscosity and the shear relaxation time, η/τ π , should be defined as a thermodynamic quantity obtained from the equal-time symmetric correlator of the shear-stress tensor. In kinetic theory, we show that this ratio does not depend on the type of interaction. Similarly, an exact expression for this ratio is obtained for holographic gauge theories. We also determine how stochastic fluctuations change η/τ π in transient relativistic hydrodynamics and show that thermal fluctuations do not spoil causality and stability.

Denicol, Gabriel S. [Universidade Federal Fluminen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hazard-Based Model of Activity Generation Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Travel behavior modeling suffers from lack of longitudinal data due to the high cost of procurement and difficulty with ensuring data quality. In the recent years ubiquitous data intercepted from social media, cell detail record, GPS traces are increasingly being explored to analyze human mobility. However, these data lack key demographic information which limits their use for developing causal models of traveler behavior. The primary contribution of the paper lies in using vehicle trajectory data from Ann Arbor along with multiple other data sources for developing a hazard-based activity generation model. The different category of data used in the analysis include (i) vehicle trajectory data (VTD), (ii) American Census Survey (ACS), (iii) land use data, (iv) household travel survey (HTS) data, and (v) smart location data from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Home and work are identified as the two most frequently visited locations from the VTD and validated against land use categories of the region. Next a random utility-based model is developed using HTS data to identify other activity purposes as a function of the polynomials of distance from home, activity duration and departure time. The developed model is then applied to identify the non-home activity purposes in the VTD. Demographic and accessibility information are appended to the VTD from ACS and smart location databases respectively. The fmal database is then used to develop a hazard-based activity generation model. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

activity generation↗
DOE OSTI2015

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supply of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bridging the simulator gap: Measuring motivational bias in digital nuclear power plant environments

Using digital NPP simulator facilities for research in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and nuclear power research is increasingly popular. For this work, we propose a method for characterizing and quantifying the gap between data collected in a simulator and data that reflect NPP operations. Using novice operators, we demonstrate how to manipulate and measure the impact of the simulator environment on operator actions. A set of biases are proposed to characterize factors introduced by the simulator environment. There are two categories of simulator bias: Environmental Biases (physical differences between the simulator and the control room), and Motivational Biases (cognitive differences between training in a simulator and operating a NPP). This study examines Motivational Bias. A preliminary causal model of Motivational Biases is introduced and tested in a demonstration experiment using 30 student operators. Data from 41 simulator sessions are analyzed. Data include crew characteristics, operator surveys, and time to recognize and diagnose the accident in the scenario. Quantitative models of the Motivational Biases using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) are proposed. With these models, we estimate how the effects of the scenario conditions are mediated by simulator bias, and we demonstrate how to quantify the strength of these effects.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants

Renewal process modeling is used for the failure prediction of hardware components under periodic maintenance. While most studies utilized data-driven approaches to estimate the input parameters for renewal process models, this paper initiates a line of research to integrate renewal process modeling with probabilistic models of underlying mechanisms associated with physical degradation and maintenance. At this stage of the research, the methodology integrates Markov modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) models of degradation, while maintenance is treated by a data-driven approach. This methodology is valuable to obtain a more accurate estimation of component reliability and availablity, especially when (i) components are highly reliable, and failure data are limited, (ii) historical data are unreliable due to changes in design, operation, and maintenance, or (iii) advanced technologies have emerged limiting operational data. The methodology explicitly incorporates the underlying spatiotemporal causes of failure into the renewal model, allowing to rank the criticality of causal factors to improve maintenance and mitigation strategies. Although the new methodology is applicable for component reliability and availability analysis in diverse industries, this report demonstrates its value for estimating frequencies of a Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), which is an initiating event in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment

In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Switchgrass-associated soil microbes have subtle but distinct effects on germination vs. growth under drought

Soil microbial communities can play a large role in plant fitness, including plants’ response to drought. How microbes mediate drought response may also differ across the plants’ life stage, but studies rarely study causal effects of microbes on plant fitness at multiple stages. We conducted a greenhouse experiment on switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) to investigate how microbial presence (sterile bulk vs. live bulk soils) and microbial source (communities from bulk vs. rhizosphere soil) affect germination and seedling growth (life-stage) during drought. We also investigated how drought and life-stage alter the assembly of the inoculated communities. Both drought conditions and the absence of microbes reduced germination (49% and 50% fewer seedlings, respectively, p < 0.05), but there were few effects of microbial presence on older seedlings. In addition, microbial source had no effect on the evaluated plant traits, but interestingly, the initially similar bulk and rhizosphere communities became compositionally distinct after 34 days with germinating seeds, but not with seedlings. Therefore, it may be that the plants did respond to microbial source through changes in seed or root exudates, and calls for further study. Finally, while sometimes microbes did benefit plants under drought, we did not find evidence that they are especially beneficial in this condition. We suggest that microbes’ effects differ across plant life stage, and may be both positive and negative. Further research should advance understanding of plant stress tolerance within a framework of plant-microbiome co-development.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2017

Identifying non-reference sites to guide stream restoration and long-term monitoring

The reference condition paradigm has served as the standard for assessing the outcomes of restoration projects, particularly their success in meeting project objectives. One limitation of relying solely on the reference condition in designing and monitoring restoration projects is that reference conditions do not necessarily elucidate impairments to effective restoration, especially diagnosing the causal mechanisms behind unsuccessful outcomes. We provide a spatial framework to select both reference and non-reference streams to guide restoration planning and long-term monitoring through reliance on altered ecosystems to understand processes that govern ecosystem biophysical properties and ecosystem responses to restoration practices. We then applied the spatial framework to East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC), Tennessee (USA), a system receiving 30 years of remediation and pollution abatement actions from intense industrialization, pollution, and urbanization. Out of >13,000 stream reaches, we identified anywhere from 4 to 48 reaches, depending on the scenario, that could be used in restoration planning and monitoring for specific sites. Furthermore, comparison of fish species composition at these sites compared to EFPC sites were used to generate hypotheses of mechanisms limiting the ecological recovery following remediation. We suggest that understanding the relative role of anthropogenic pressures in governing ecosystem responses is required to successful, process-driven restoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Grid impact analysis using controller-hardware-in-the-loop for high-power vehicle charging stations

A controller-hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) architecture for the evaluation of grid impacts arising from high-power vehicle charging stations is presented in this paper. Unlike simulation-based studies, the proposed method can be used to capture the interactions of the grid and the charging load along with charger controllers in real time. The proposed method can be used to evaluate the impact of charging load on the grid in terms of voltage variations and line congestion. The proposed CHIL platform allows for de-risking the vehicle charging station deployment by simulating the complex interactions among all the components of a vehicle charging station - i.e., the grid, vehicle, and charger controller - in a realistic manner before using the charging station in a grid. Further, the proposed CHIL approach can be used to evaluate the voltage regulation causalities of the vehicle charging station. Experimental results are presented in the paper to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method in a laboratory environment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in integrating dissolved organic matter chemodiversity into kinetic models of soil respiration

The chemodiversity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in soil has been proposed to influence the microbial metabolism and fate of belowground organic carbon (C). However, integrating DOM chemistry into soil C cycle models to improve predictions of C stocks and fluxes—beyond simply considering DOM pool size—remains a challenge. While recent research suggests that incorporating DOM chemodiversity into models can improve predictions of microbial respiration, there is still a lack of mechanistic understanding describing how DOM chemodiversity affects microbial metabolism and soil respiration. Here, we evaluated whether DOM chemodiversity was a determinant of soil respiration using paired measurements of high-resolution DOM chemistry, obtained from Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), and potential soil respiration rates from across the United States (U.S.), all data provided by the Molecular Observation Network. Our objectives were to (1) assess statistical relationships between DOM chemodiversity and microbial respiration, and (2) evaluate the ability of kinetic models to leverage DOM chemistry to explain empirical relationships found in statistical models. Statistical regressions revealed that DOM chemodiversity (alpha diversity) was nonlinearly related to potential soil respiration rates, both independently and through its interactions with DOM and total C concentrations. In soils with relatively high DOM but low total C concentrations, potential soil respiration rates were negatively correlated with DOM alpha diversity, whereas in soils with relatively low DOM and high total C concentrations showed the opposite trend. However, when metabolic transition theory kinetic models were modified to include chemodiversity, their performance was comparable to traditional Monod kinetics approaches, which simulate respiration rates as a function of DOM concentration. The inability to account for nonlinearities in DOM chemodiversity–respiration relationships highlight an opportunity to advance substrate uptake kinetics by establishing causal links between DOM chemodiversity, microbial metabolism trade-offs, and potential interactions under varied environmental conditions.

Bioenergetic model↗
DOE OSTI2011

Chemokines, macrophage inflammatory protein-2 and stromal cell-derived factor-1{alpha}, suppress amyloid {beta}-induced neurotoxicity

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by a progressive cognitive decline and accumulation of neurotoxic oligomeric peptides amyloid-{beta} (A{beta}). Although the molecular events are not entirely known, it has become evident that inflammation, environmental and other risk factors may play a causal, disruptive and/or protective role in the development of AD. The present study investigated the ability of the chemokines, macrophage inflammatory protein-2 (MIP-2) and stromal cell-derived factor-1{alpha} (SDF-1{alpha}), the respective ligands for chemokine receptors CXCR2 and CXCR4, to suppress A{beta}-induced neurotoxicity in vitro and in vivo. Pretreatment with MIP-2 or SDF-1{alpha} significantly protected neurons from A{beta}-induced dendritic regression and apoptosis in vitro through activation of Akt, ERK1/2 and maintenance of metalloproteinase ADAM17 especially with SDF-1{alpha}. Intra-cerebroventricular (ICV) injection of A{beta} led to reduction in dendritic length and spine density of pyramidal neurons in the CA1 area of the hippocampus and increased oxidative damage 24 h following the exposure. The A{beta}-induced morphometric changes of neurons and increase in biomarkers of oxidative damage, F{sub 2}-isoprostanes, were significantly inhibited by pretreatment with the chemokines MIP-2 or SDF-1{alpha}. Additionally, MIP-2 or SDF-1{alpha} was able to suppress the aberrant mislocalization of p21-activated kinase (PAK), one of the proteins involved in the maintenance of dendritic spines. Furthermore, MIP-2 also protected neurons against A{beta} neurotoxicity in CXCR2-/- mice, potentially through observed up regulation of CXCR1 mRNA. Understanding the neuroprotective potential of chemokines is crucial in defining the role for their employment during the early stages of neurodegeneration. -- Research highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Neuroprotective ability of the chemokines MIP2 and CXCL12 against A{beta} toxicity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer MIP-2 or CXCL12 prevented dendritic regression and apoptosis in vitro. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Neuroprotection through activation of Akt, ERK1/2 and maintenance of ADAM17. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Neuroprotection of hippocampal pyramidal neurons in vivo by MIP-2 or CXCL12. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer MIP-2 or CXCL12 prevent elevation of F2-Isoprostanes against A{beta} treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Increased CCL24/eotaxin-2 with postnatal ozone exposure in allergen-sensitized infant monkeys is not associated with recruitment of eosinophils to airway mucosa

Epidemiology supports a causal link between air pollutant exposure and childhood asthma, but the mechanisms are unknown. We have previously reported that ozone exposure can alter the anatomic distribution of CD25+ lymphocytes in airways of allergen-sensitized infant rhesus monkeys. Here, we hypothesized that ozone may also affect eosinophil trafficking to allergen-sensitized infant airways. To test this hypothesis, we measured blood, lavage, and airway mucosa eosinophils in 3-month old monkeys following cyclical ozone and house dust mite (HDM) aerosol exposures. We also determined if eotaxin family members (CCL11, CCL24, CCL26) are associated with eosinophil location in response to exposures. In lavage, eosinophil numbers increased in animals exposed to ozone and/or HDM. Ozone + HDM animals showed significantly increased CCL24 and CCL26 protein in lavage, but the concentration of CCL11, CCL24, and CCL26 was independent of eosinophil number for all exposure groups. In airway mucosa, eosinophils increased with exposure to HDM alone; comparatively, ozone and ozone + HDM resulted in reduced eosinophils. CCL26 mRNA and immunofluorescence staining increased in airway mucosa of HDM alone animals and correlated with eosinophil volume. In ozone + HDM animal groups, CCL24 mRNA and immunofluorescence increased along with CCR3 mRNA, but did not correlate with airway mucosa eosinophils. Cumulatively, our data indicate that ozone exposure results in a profile of airway eosinophil migration that is distinct from HDM mediated pathways. CCL24 was found to be induced only by combined ozone and HDM exposure, however expression was not associated with the presence of eosinophils within the airway mucosa. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Ozone can modulate the localization of eosinophils in infant allergic airways. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Expression of eotaxins within the lung is affected by ozone and allergen exposure. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CCL24 induction by ozone and allergen exposure is not linked to eosinophilia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗