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At least 757 records · Page 42

The Origin of the EUV Late Phase: A Case Study of the C8.8 Flare on 2010 May 5

Since the launch of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on 2010 February 11, the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) has observed numerous flares. One interesting feature observed by EVE is that a subset of flares exhibit an additional enhancement of the 2-3 million K emission several hours after the flares soft X-ray emission. From the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images, we observe that this secondary emission, dubbed the EUV late phase, occurs in the same active region as the flare but not in the same coronal loops. Here, we examine the C8.8 flare that occurred on 2010 May 5 as a case study of EUV late phase flares. In addition to presenting detailed observations from both AIA and EVE, we develop a physical model of this flare and test it using the Enthalpy Based Thermal Evolution of Loops (EBTEL) model.

Hock, R. A.↗

Assessment of Polarization Effect on Efficiency of Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm in Case of Thin Atmosphere Over Black Surface

The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm [1, 2] provides a numerical iterative solution to the problem of minimization of a function over a space of its parameters. In our work, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm retrieves optical parameters of a thin (single scattering) plane parallel atmosphere irradiated by collimated infinitely wide monochromatic beam of light. Black ground surface is assumed. Computational accuracy, sensitivity to the initial guess and the presence of noise in the signal, and other properties of the algorithm are investigated in scalar (using intensity only) and vector (including polarization) modes. We consider an atmosphere that contains a mixture of coarse and fine fractions. Following [3], the fractions are simulated using Henyey-Greenstein model. Though not realistic, this assumption is very convenient for tests [4, p.354]. In our case it yields analytical evaluation of Jacobian matrix. Assuming the MISR geometry of observation [5] as an example, the average scattering cosines and the ratio of coarse and fine fractions, the atmosphere optical depth, and the single scattering albedo, are the five parameters to be determined numerically. In our implementation of the algorithm, the system of five linear equations is solved using the fast Cramer s rule [6]. A simple subroutine developed by the authors, makes the algorithm independent from external libraries. All Fortran 90/95 codes discussed in the presentation will be available immediately after the meeting from sergey.v.korkin@nasa.gov by request.

Korkin, S.↗

Application of MODIS Products to Infer Possible Relationships Between Basin Land Cover and Coastal Waters Turbidity Using the Magdalena River, Colombia, as a Case Study

Basin development and consequent change in basin land cover have been often associated with an increased turbidity in coastal waters because of sediment yield and nutrients loading. The later leads to phytoplankton abundance further exacerbating water turbidity. This subsequently affects biological and physical processes in coastal estuaries by interfering with sun light penetration to coral reefs and sea grass, and even affecting public health. Therefore, consistent estimation of land cover changes and turbidity trend lines is crucial to design environmental and restoration management plans, to predict fate of possible pollutants, and to estimate sedimentary fluxes into the ocean. Ground solely methods to estimate land cover change would be unpractical and traditional methods of monitoring in situ water turbidity can be very expensive and time consuming. Accurate monitoring on the status and trends of basin land cover as well as the water quality of the receiving water bodies are required for analysis of relationships between the two variables. Use of remote sensing (RS) technology provides a great benefit for both fields of study, facilitating monitoring of changes in a timely and cost effective manner and covering wide areas with long term measurements. In this study, the Magdalena River basin and fixed geographical locations in the estuarine waters of its delta are used as a case to study the temporal trend lines of both, land cover change and the reflectance of the water turbidity using satellite technology. Land cover data from a combined product between sensors Terra and Aqua (MCD12Q1) from MODIS will be adapted to the conditions in the Magdalena basin to estimate changes in land cover since year 2000 to 2009. Surface reflectance data from a MODIS, Terra (MOD09GQ), band 1, will be used in lieu of in situ water turbidity for the time period between 2000 and present. Results will be compared with available existing data.

Madrinan, Max Jacobo Moreno↗

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

Towards Understanding the DO-178C / ED-12C Assurance Case

This paper describes initial work towards building an explicit assurance case for DO-178C / ED-12C. Two specific questions are explored: (1) What are some of the assumptions upon which the guidance in the document relies, and (2) What claims are made concerning test coverage analysis?

Holloway, C M.↗

Internal Structure and Mineralogy of Differentiated Asteroids Assuming Chondritic Bulk Composition: The Case of Vesta

Bulk composition (including oxygen content) is a primary control on the internal structure and mineralogy of differentiated asteroids. For example, oxidation state will affect core size, as well as Mg# and pyroxene content of the silicate mantle. The Howardite-Eucrite-Diogenite class of meteorites (HED) provide an interesting test-case of this idea, in particular in light of results of the Dawn mission which provide information on the size, density and differentiation state of Vesta, the parent body of the HED's. In this work we explore plausible bulk compositions of Vesta and use mass-balance and geochemical modelling to predict possible internal structures and crust/mantle compositions and mineralogies. Models are constrained to be consistent with known HED samples, but the approach has the potential to extend predictions to thermodynamically plausible rock types that are not necessarily present in the HED collection. Nine chondritic bulk compositions are considered (CI, CV, CO, CM, H, L, LL, EH, EL). For each, relative proportions and densities of the core, mantle, and crust are quantified. Considering that the basaltic crust has the composition of the primitive eucrite Juvinas and assuming that this crust is in thermodynamic equilibrium with the residual mantle, it is possible to calculate how much iron is in metallic form (in the core) and how much in oxidized form (in the mantle and crust) for a given bulk composition. Of the nine bulk compositions tested, solutions corresponding to CI and LL groups predicted a negative metal fraction and were not considered further. Solutions for enstatite chondrites imply significant oxidation relative to the starting materials and these solutions too are considered unlikely. For the remaining bulk compositions, the relative proportion of crust to bulk silicate is typically in the range 15 to 20% corresponding to crustal thicknesses of 15 to 20 km for a porosity-free Vesta-sized body. The mantle is predicted to be largely dominated by olivine (>85%) for carbonaceous chondrites, but to be a roughly equal mixture of olivine and pyroxene for ordinary chondrite precursors. All bulk compositions have a significant core, but the relative proportions of metal and sulphide can be widely different. Using these data, total core size (metal+ sulphide) and average core densities can be calculated, providing a useful reference frame within which to consider geophysical/gravity data of the Dawn mission.

Toplis, M. J.↗

Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Objective Image Segmentation: A Case Study of 2010 Haiti Earthquake

In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.

image segmentation↗

Case Studies of Aerosol Remote Sensing in the Vicinity of Clouds

Studying the spatial variability of aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds is essential to our ability to determine aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate. In this paper, we describe aerosol observations collected near cloud edges by an airborne Sun photometer over dark ocean waters. Focusing on case studies of aerosol measurements near eight cloud edges within a dissipating stratiform cloud deck, we compare the airborne Sun photometer observations to retrievals of aerosol properties using the standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol algorithm applied to 500-m-resolution MODIS spectral reflectances. We find a persistent, spectrally neutral increase in the Sun photometer-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) of up to 10% (0.015) in the 2-km distances closest to the edges of several distinct clouds. At midvisible wavelengths, the MODIS AOD retrievals show similar increases toward cloud edges, although a larger increase in AOD is found in the MODIS along-scan direction. At shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelengths (1240-2130 nm), the MODIS-derived AOD increases near cloud edges are of the order of 0.03 and as such three times as large as the Sun photometer-derived values. Hence, in contrast to recently discussed bluing of aerosols near cloud edges, i.e., a preferential apparent increase in the visible reflectances of clear-sky pixels due to 3-D radiative transfer effects in the vicinity of clouds, we find a reddening of aerosols in the MODIS 500-m-resolution aerosol retrievals near clouds. This reddening in our study can be traced to larger absolute increases in SWIR reflectances when compared to visible reflectances near clouds, which in turn seem to stem from larger electronic cross talk in the MODIS SWIR bands (5-7). We note that the lack of bluing in our MODIS observations is likely due to the small geometric and optical thicknesses of the clouds considered.

Redemann, Jens↗

Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

Gacy, Marc↗

Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

Blankenship, Clay↗

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗

STS Case Study Development Support

The Shuttle Case Study Collection (SCSC) has been developed using lessons learned documented by NASA engineers, analysts, and contractors. The SCSC provides educators with a new tool to teach real-world engineering processes with the goal of providing unique educational materials that enhance critical thinking, decision-making and problem-solving skills. During this third phase of the project, responsibilities included: the revision of the Hyper Text Markup Language (HTML) source code to ensure all pages follow World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) standards, and the addition and edition of website content, including text, documents, and images. Basic HTML knowledge was required, as was basic knowledge of photo editing software, and training to learn how to use NASA's Content Management System for website design. The outcome of this project was its release to the public.

Rosa de Jesus, Dan A.↗

A FIRE-ACE/SHEBA Case Study of Mixed-Phase Arctic Boundary Layer Clouds: Entrainment Rate Limitations on Rapid Primary Ice Nucleation Processes

Observations of long-lived mixed-phase Arctic boundary layer clouds on 7 May 1998 during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE)Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign provide a unique opportunity to test understanding of cloud ice formation. Under the microphysically simple conditions observed (apparently negligible ice aggregation, sublimation, and multiplication), the only expected source of new ice crystals is activation of heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) and the only sink is sedimentation. Large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics are initialized with IN number concentration N(sub IN) measured above cloud top, but details of IN activation behavior are unknown. If activated rapidly (in deposition, condensation, or immersion modes), as commonly assumed, IN are depleted from the well-mixed boundary layer within minutes. Quasi-equilibrium ice number concentration N(sub i) is then limited to a small fraction of overlying N(sub IN) that is determined by the cloud-top entrainment rate w(sub e) divided by the number-weighted ice fall speed at the surface v(sub f). Because w(sub c)< 1 cm/s and v(sub f)> 10 cm/s, N(sub i)/N(sub IN)<< 1. Such conditions may be common for this cloud type, which has implications for modeling IN diagnostically, interpreting measurements, and quantifying sensitivity to increasing N(sub IN) (when w(sub e)/v(sub f)< 1, entrainment rate limitations serve to buffer cloud system response). To reproduce observed ice crystal size distributions and cloud radar reflectivities with rapidly consumed IN in this case, the measured above-cloud N(sub IN) must be multiplied by approximately 30. However, results are sensitive to assumed ice crystal properties not constrained by measurements. In addition, simulations do not reproduce the pronounced mesoscale heterogeneity in radar reflectivity that is observed.

Fridlin, Ann↗

Making the Implicit Explicit: Towards an Assurance Case for DO-178C

For about two decades, compliance with Software Considerations in Airborne Systems and Equipment Certification (DO-178B) has been the primary means for receiving regulatory approval for using software on commercial airplanes. A new edition of the standard, DO-178C, was published in December 2011, and regulatory bodies have started the process towards recognizing this edition. The stated purpose of DO-178C remains unchanged from its predecessor: providing guidance “for the production of software for airborne systems and equipment that performs its intended function with a level of confidence in safety that complies with airworthiness requirements.” Within the text of the guidance, little or no rationale is given for how a particular objective or collection of objectives contributes to achieving this purpose. Thus the assurance case for the document is implicit. This paper discusses a current effort to make the implicit explicit. In particular, the paper describes the current status of the research seeking to identify the specific arguments contained in, or implied by, the DO-178C guidance that implicitly justify the assumption that the document meets its stated purpose.

Holloway, C. Michael↗

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

air traffic control↗

The Geometric Factor of Electrostatic Plasma Analyzers: A Case Study from the Fast Plasma Investigation for the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission

We report our findings comparing the geometric factor (GF) as determined from simulations and laboratory measurements of the new Dual Electron Spectrometer (DES) being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center as part of the Fast Plasma Investigation on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. Particle simulations are increasingly playing an essential role in the design and calibration of electrostatic analyzers, facilitating the identification and mitigation of the many sources of systematic error present in laboratory calibration. While equations for laboratory measurement of the Geometric Factpr (GF) have been described in the literature, these are not directly applicable to simulation since the two are carried out under substantially different assumptions and conditions, making direct comparison very challenging. Starting from first principles, we derive generalized expressions for the determination of the GF in simulation and laboratory, and discuss how we have estimated errors in both cases. Finally, we apply these equations to the new DES instrument and show that the results agree within errors. Thus we show that the techniques presented here will produce consistent results between laboratory and simulation, and present the first description of the performance of the new DES instrument in the literature.

Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission↗