Results for “Bayesian optimization” — Page 42

DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput spin-bath characterization of spin defects in semiconductors

Detailed knowledge of the local environments of spin defects in semiconductors, such as nitrogenvacancy (NV) centers in diamond or divacancies in silicon carbide, is crucial for optimizing control and entanglement protocols in quantum sensing and information applications. However, at present a direct experimental characterization of individual defect environments is not scalable, as conventional spin-bath measurements are time consuming and difficult to automate. Achieving high-throughput characterization requires short experiments to probe the spin bath. However, with fewer and noisier measurements, the inverse problem of recovering spin-bath properties from measured data becomes ill posed, with multiple spin baths having a high likelihood of yielding the same data. In this work, we present a set of computational tools to resolve the ill-posed inverse problem of recovering the atomic positions and hyperfine couplings of random nuclei surrounding spin defects from sparse, noisy experimental coherence data, which can be obtained in hours. Here, we use a trans-dimensional Bayesian approach that incorporates ab initio data to yield full posterior distributions over nuclear spin environments, enabling robust recovery from limited data. We also provide practical tools and guidelines to determine the limits of detectability for hyperfine couplings under specific dynamical decoupling sequences and sampling conditions. In addition, we demonstrate how the tools developed here, in combination with ab initio simulations of spin baths, can guide the design of efficient experimental protocols for application-specific high-throughput screening. To showcase the utility of our approach, we apply it to design fast dynamical decoupling experiments to characterize the spin baths often individual NV centers in diamond. While the primary focus is on accelerating spin-bath characterization of spin defects, this Bayesian approach also lays the foundation for digital-twin studies of spin defects, where a virtual model of the spin-defect system evolves in real time with ongoing experimental measurements. Together, the set of tools we designed and applied paves the way for scalable deployment of spin defects in semiconductors for quantum sensing and information applications.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning Automated Recommendation Tool for synthetic biology

Abstract Synthetic biology allows us to bioengineer cells to synthesize novel valuable molecules such as renewable biofuels or anticancer drugs. However, traditional synthetic biology approaches involve ad-hoc engineering practices, which lead to long development times. Here, we present the Automated Recommendation Tool (ART), a tool that leverages machine learning and probabilistic modeling techniques to guide synthetic biology in a systematic fashion, without the need for a full mechanistic understanding of the biological system. Using sampling-based optimization, ART provides a set of recommended strains to be built in the next engineering cycle, alongside probabilistic predictions of their production levels. We demonstrate the capabilities of ART on simulated data sets, as well as experimental data from real metabolic engineering projects producing renewable biofuels, hoppy flavored beer without hops, fatty acids, and tryptophan. Finally, we discuss the limitations of this approach, and the practical consequences of the underlying assumptions failing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian Vision for Shape Recovery

We present a new Bayesian vision technique that aims at recovering a shape from two or more noisy observations taken under similar lighting conditions. The shape is parametrized by a piecewise linear height field, textured by a piecewise linear irradiance field, and we assume Gaussian Markovian priors for both shape vertices and irradiance variables. The observation process. also known as rendering, is modeled by a non-affine projection (e.g. perspective projection) followed by a convolution with a piecewise linear point spread function. and contamination by additive Gaussian noise. We assume that the observation parameters are calibrated beforehand. The major novelty of the proposed method consists of marginalizing out the irradiances considered as nuisance parameters, which is achieved by Laplace approximations. This reduces the inference to minimizing an energy that only depends on the shape vertices, and therefore allows an efficient Iterated Conditional Mode (ICM) optimization scheme to be implemented. A Gaussian approximation of the posterior shape density is computed, thus providing estimates both the geometry and its uncertainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of the new method by shape reconstruction results in a 2D case. A 3D version is currently under development and aims at recovering a surface from multiple images, reconstructing the topography by marginalizing out both albedo and shading.

Jalobeanu, Andre↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Validation of Control Bands Using Bayesian Statistical Analyses

Abstract This study presents a quantitative validation of 15 Similar Exposure Groups (SEGs) that were derived via control bands inherent to the Risk Level Based Management System currently being used at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. For 93% of the SEGs that were evaluated, statistical analyses of personal exposure monitoring data, through Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA), demonstrated that the controls implemented from the initial control bands assigned to these SEGs were at least as protective as the controls from the control band outcomes derived from the quantitative data. The BDA also demonstrated that for 40% of the SEGs, the controls from the initial control bands were overly protective, thus allowing controls to be downgraded, which resulted in a significant saving of environmental safety and health (ES&H) resources. Therefore, as a means to both confirm existing controls and to identify candidate SEGs for downgrading controls, efforts to continuously improve the accuracy of Control Banding (CB) strategies through the routine quantitative validation of SEGs are strongly encouraged. Targeted collaborative efforts across institutions and even countries for both the development of CB strategies and the validation of discreetly defined SEGs of commonly performed tasks will not only optimize limited ES&H resources but will also assist in providing a simplified process for essential risk communication at the worker level to the benefit of billions of workers around the world.

McCord, Tyler A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗

NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling Satellite Precipitation with Emphasis on Extremes: A Variational 1-Norm Regularization in the Derivative Domain

The increasing availability of precipitation observations from space, e.g., from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the forthcoming Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) Mission, has fueled renewed interest in developing frameworks for downscaling and multi-sensor data fusion that can handle large data sets in computationally efficient ways while optimally reproducing desired properties of the underlying rainfall fields. Of special interest is the reproduction of extreme precipitation intensities and gradients, as these are directly relevant to hazard prediction. In this paper, we present a new formalism for downscaling satellite precipitation observations, which explicitly allows for the preservation of some key geometrical and statistical properties of spatial precipitation. These include sharp intensity gradients (due to high-intensity regions embedded within lower-intensity areas), coherent spatial structures (due to regions of slowly varying rainfall),and thicker-than-Gaussian tails of precipitation gradients and intensities. Specifically, we pose the downscaling problem as a discrete inverse problem and solve it via a regularized variational approach (variational downscaling) where the regularization term is selected to impose the desired smoothness in the solution while allowing for some steep gradients(called 1-norm or total variation regularization). We demonstrate the duality between this geometrically inspired solution and its Bayesian statistical interpretation, which is equivalent to assuming a Laplace prior distribution for the precipitation intensities in the derivative (wavelet) space. When the observation operator is not known, we discuss the effect of its misspecification and explore a previously proposed dictionary-based sparse inverse downscaling methodology to indirectly learn the observation operator from a database of coincidental high- and low-resolution observations. The proposed method and ideas are illustrated in case studies featuring the downscaling of a hurricane precipitation field.

Hurricanes↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photometric redshifts for the S-PLUS Survey: Is machine learning up to the task?

The Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS) is a novel project that aims to map the Southern Hemisphere using a twelve filter system, comprising five broad-band SDSS-like filters and seven narrow-band filters optimized for important stellar features in the local universe. In this paper we use the photometry and morphological information from the first S-PLUS data release (S-PLUS DR1) cross-matched to unWISE data and spectroscopic redshifts from Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR15. We explore three different machine learning methods (Gaussian Processes with GPz and two Deep Learning models made with TensorFlow) and compare them with the currently used template-fitting method in the S-PLUS DR1 to address whether machine learning methods can take advantage of the twelve filter system for photometric redshift prediction. Using tests for accuracy for both single-point estimates such as the calculation of the scatter, bias, and outlier fraction, and probability distribution functions (PDFs) such as the Probability Integral Transform (PIT), the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Odds distribution, we conclude that a deep-learning method using a combination of a Bayesian Neural Network and a Mixture Density Network offers the most accurate photometric redshifts for the current test sample. In conclusion, it achieves single-point photometric redshifts with scatter (σ NMAD ) of 0.023, normalized bias of -0.001, and outlier fraction of 0.64% for galaxies with r_auto magnitudes between 16 and 21.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm Employing Differential Evolution: Simulations and Applications

The ability to estimate the fraction of ground flashes in a set of flashes observed by a satellite lightning imager, such as the future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), would likely improve operational and scientific applications (e.g., severe weather warnings, lightning nitrogen oxides studies, and global electric circuit analyses). A Bayesian inversion method, called the Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm (GoFFRA), was recently developed for estimating the ground flash fraction. The method uses a constrained mixed exponential distribution model to describe a particular lightning optical measurement called the Maximum Group Area (MGA). To obtain the optimum model parameters (one of which is the desired ground flash fraction), a scalar function must be minimized. This minimization is difficult because of two problems: (1) Label Switching (LS), and (2) Parameter Identity Theft (PIT). The LS problem is well known in the literature on mixed exponential distributions, and the PIT problem was discovered in this study. Each problem occurs when one allows the numerical minimizer to freely roam through the parameter search space; this allows certain solution parameters to interchange roles which leads to fundamental ambiguities, and solution error. A major accomplishment of this study is that we have employed a state-of-the-art genetic-based global optimization algorithm called Differential Evolution (DE) that constrains the parameter search in such a way as to remove both the LS and PIT problems. To test the performance of the GoFFRA when DE is employed, we applied it to analyze simulated MGA datasets that we generated from known mixed exponential distributions. Moreover, we evaluated the GoFFRA/DE method by applying it to analyze actual MGAs derived from low-Earth orbiting lightning imaging sensor data; the actual MGA data were classified as either ground or cloud flash MGAs using National Lightning Detection Network[TM] (NLDN) data. Solution error plots are provided for both the simulations and actual data analyses.

Koshak, William↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reducing the Risk and Improving Mission Success for NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid: How Many Robotic Surveyors?

NASA's recent attention and interest in sending a human mission to land on a Near-Earth asteroid raises the question of need for a robotic surveyor. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending (versus not sending) one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The probability of finding an asteroid suitable for landing was derived from an analysis of more than 1200 asteroids in order to define a quantitative estimate of suitability. The low cost of the surveyors relative to the human mission underlined the multi-surveyor strategy as relatively inexpensive insurance against the risks of encountering an unsuitable asteroid for landing on arrival by a human mission.

decision analysis↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Neutrino Flavor Conversion Measurements through Machine Learning

The phenomenon of neutrino flavor conversion whereby the flavor of a neutrino particle can change between its time of production and later detection was the first definitive evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. Some of the oscillation parameters used to describe this conversion are not yet well measured, leaving important questions still open regarding flavor conversion both in vacuum and as neutrinos travel through matter. NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that uses Fermilab's predominantly $\nu_\mu$ NuMI beam. A 14 kton oil-based liquid scintillator far detector 810 km away is used to measure neutrino oscillation through the $\nu_\mu$ disappearance and $\nu_e$ appearance channels. Super-K is a 50 kton water Cherenkov detector, which measures the disappearance of $\nu_e$ produced during solar fusion. The high density environment of the sun decreases the $\nu_e$ survival probability at higher energies observable in Super-K compared to the vacuum-dominated oscillations at lower energies. However, the transition region is overshadowed by radioactive background in the detector. In both of these experiments, the separation of neutrino detection events from background and classification of neutrino flavor are crucial tasks that benefit from the introduction of machine learning. Chapter 1 gives an overview of neutrinos and the context under which flavor conversion is measured in this dissertation. Chapters 2-7 present the results of a Bayesian sampling approach for the latest NOvA 3-flavor oscillation analysis with $26.6 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target in neutrino mode and $12.5 \times 10^{20}$ in antineutrino mode collected over 10 years. Chapters 8-13 present the results of extending the Super-K solar analysis to lower energies during its fourth phase with 2970 days of livetime.

Yankelevich, Alejandro Jaime [UC, Irvine]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Neutrino Flavor Conversion Measurements through Machine Learning

The phenomenon of neutrino flavor conversion whereby the flavor of a neutrino particle can change between its time of production and later detection was the first definitive evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. Some of the oscillation parameters used to describe this conversion are not yet well measured, leaving important questions still open regarding flavor conversion both in vacuum and as neutrinos travel through matter. NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that uses Fermilab's predominantly $\nu_\mu$ NuMI beam. A 14 kton oil-based liquid scintillator far detector 810 km away is used to measure neutrino oscillation through the $\nu_\mu$ disappearance and $\nu_e$ appearance channels. Super-K is a 50 kton water Cherenkov detector, which measures the disappearance of $\nu_e$ produced during solar fusion. The high density environment of the sun decreases the $\nu_e$ survival probability at higher energies observable in Super-K compared to the vacuum-dominated oscillations at lower energies. However, the transition region is overshadowed by radioactive background in the detector. In both of these experiments, the separation of neutrino detection events from background and classification of neutrino flavor are crucial tasks that benefit from the introduction of machine learning. Chapter 1 gives an overview of neutrinos and the context under which flavor conversion is measured in this dissertation. Chapters 2-7 present the results of a Bayesian sampling approach for the latest NOvA 3-flavor oscillation analysis with $26.6 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target in neutrino mode and $12.5 \times 10^{20}$ in antineutrino mode collected over 10 years. Chapters 8-13 present the results of extending the Super-K solar analysis to lower energies during its fourth phase with 2970 days of livetime.

Yankelevich, Alejandro Jaime [UC, Irvine]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Neutrino Flavor Conversion Measurements through Machine Learning

The phenomenon of neutrino flavor conversion whereby the flavor of a neutrino particle can change between its time of production and later detection was the first definitive evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. Some of the oscillation parameters used to describe this conversion are not yet well measured, leaving important questions still open regarding flavor conversion both in vacuum and as neutrinos travel through matter. NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that uses Fermilab's predominantly $\nu_\mu$ NuMI beam. A 14 kton oil-based liquid scintillator far detector 810 km away is used to measure neutrino oscillation through the $\nu_\mu$ disappearance and $\nu_e$ appearance channels. Super-K is a 50 kton water Cherenkov detector, which measures the disappearance of $\nu_e$ produced during solar fusion. The high density environment of the sun decreases the $\nu_e$ survival probability at higher energies observable in Super-K compared to the vacuum-dominated oscillations at lower energies. However, the transition region is overshadowed by radioactive background in the detector. In both of these experiments, the separation of neutrino detection events from background and classification of neutrino flavor are crucial tasks that benefit from the introduction of machine learning. Chapter 1 gives an overview of neutrinos and the context under which flavor conversion is measured in this dissertation. Chapters 2-7 present the results of a Bayesian sampling approach for the latest NOvA 3-flavor oscillation analysis with $26.6 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target in neutrino mode and $12.5 \times 10^{20}$ in antineutrino mode collected over 10 years. Chapters 8-13 present the results of extending the Super-K solar analysis to lower energies during its fourth phase with 2970 days of livetime.

Yankelevich, Alejandro Jaime [UC, Irvine] (ORCID:0↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable quantum computational science: A perspective from block-encodings and polynomial transformations

Significant developments made in quantum hardware and error correction recently have been driving quantum computing toward practical utility. However, gaps remain between abstract quantum algorithmic development and practical applications in computational sciences. In this perspective article, we propose several properties that scalable quantum computational science methods should possess. We further discuss how block-encodings and polynomial transformations can potentially serve as a unified framework with the desired properties. Recent advancements on these topics are presented, including the construction and assembly of block-encodings, and various generalizations of quantum signal processing (QSP) algorithms to perform polynomial transformations. The scalability of QSP methods on parallel and distributed quantum architectures is also highlighted. Promising applications in simulation and observable estimation in chemistry, physics, and optimization problems are presented. We hope this perspective serves as a gentle introduction to state-of-the-art quantum algorithms for the computational science community and inspires future development of scalable quantum computational science methodologies that bridge theory and practice.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRS2010

Non-Targeted Effects and the Dose Response for Heavy Ion Tumorigenesis

BACKGROUND: There is no human epidemiology data available to estimate the heavy ion cancer risks experienced by astronauts in space. Studies of tumor induction in mice are a necessary step to estimate risks to astronauts. Previous experimental data can be better utilized to model dose response for heavy ion tumorigenesis and plan future low dose studies. DOSE RESPONSE MODELS: The Harderian Gland data of Alpen et al.[1-3] was re-analyzed [4] using non-linear least square regression. The data set measured the induction of Harderian gland tumors in mice by high-energy protons, helium, neon, iron, niobium and lanthanum with LET s ranging from 0.4 to 950 keV/micron. We were able to strengthen the individual ion models by combining data for all ions into a model that relates both radiation dose and LET for the ion to tumor prevalence. We compared models based on Targeted Effects (TE) to one motivated by Non-targeted Effects (NTE) that included a bystander term that increased tumor induction at low doses non-linearly. When comparing fitted models to the experimental data, we considered the adjusted R2, the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to test for Goodness of fit.In the adjusted R2test, the model with the highest R2values provides a better fit to the available data. In the AIC and BIC tests, the model with the smaller values of the summary value provides the better fit. The non-linear NTE models fit the combined data better than the TE models that are linear at low doses. We evaluated the differences in the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and found the NTE model provides a higher RBE at low dose compared to the TE model. POWER ANALYSIS: The final NTE model estimates were used to simulate example data to consider the design of new experiments to detect NTE at low dose for validation. Power and sample sizes were calculated for a variety of radiation qualities including some not considered in the Harderian Gland data set and with different background tumor incidences. We considered different experimental designs with varying number of doses and varying low doses dependant on the LET of the radiation. The optimal design to detect a NTE for an individual ion had 4 doses equally spaced below a maximal dose where bending due to cell sterilization was < 2%. For example at 100 keV/micron we would irradiate at 0.03 Gy, 0.065 Gy, 0.13 Gy, and 0.26 Gy and require 850 mice including a control dose for a sensitivity to detect NTE with 80% power. Sample sizes could be improved by combining ions similar to the methods used with the Harderian Gland data.

Chappelli, Lori J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Inductive Approaches to Improving Diagnosis and Design for Diagnosability

The first research area under this grant addresses the problem of classifying time series according to their morphological features in the time domain. A supervised learning system called CALCHAS, which induces a classification procedure for signatures from preclassified examples, was developed. For each of several signature classes, the system infers a model that captures the class's morphological features using Bayesian model induction and the minimum message length approach to assign priors. After induction, a time series (signature) is classified in one of the classes when there is enough evidence to support that decision. Time series with sufficiently novel features, belonging to classes not present in the training set, are recognized as such. A second area of research assumes two sources of information about a system: a model or domain theory that encodes aspects of the system under study and data from actual system operations over time. A model, when it exists, represents strong prior expectations about how a system will perform. Our work with a diagnostic model of the RCS (Reaction Control System) of the Space Shuttle motivated the development of SIG, a system which combines information from a model (or domain theory) and data. As it tracks RCS behavior, the model computes quantitative and qualitative values. Induction is then performed over the data represented by both the 'raw' features and the model-computed high-level features. Finally, work on clustering for operating mode discovery motivated some important extensions to the clustering strategy we had used. One modification appends an iterative optimization technique onto the clustering system; this optimization strategy appears to be novel in the clustering literature. A second modification improves the noise tolerance of the clustering system. In particular, we adapt resampling-based pruning strategies used by supervised learning systems to the task of simplifying hierarchical clusterings, thus making post-clustering analysis easier.

Fisher, Douglas H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗

DOE OSTI2024

ETHOS: An automated framework to generate multi-fidelity constitutive data tables and propagate uncertainties to hydrodynamic simulations

Accurate constitutive data, such as equations of state and plasma transport coefficients, are necessary for reliable hydrodynamic simulations of plasma systems such as fusion targets, planets, and stars. Here, we develop a framework for automatically generating transport-coefficient tables using a parameterized model that incorporates data from both high-fidelity sources (e.g., density functional theory calculations and reference experiments) and lower-fidelity sources (e.g., average-atom and analytic models). The framework incorporates uncertainties from these multi-fidelity sources, generating ensembles of optimally diverse tables that are suitable for uncertainty quantification of hydrodynamic simulations. We illustrate the utility of the framework with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically launched flyer plates, which are used to measure material properties in pulsed-power experiments. We explore how changes in the uncertainties assigned to the multi-fidelity data sources propagate to changes in simulation outputs and find that our simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties near the melting transition. The presented framework enables computationally efficient uncertainty quantification that readily incorporates new high-fidelity measurements or calculations and identifies plasma regimes where additional data will have high impact.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗