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At least 757 records · Page 42

The impact of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence on cervical cancer incidence rates and trends among women aged 30 years or older—United States, 2001-2019

Abstract Hysterectomy protects against cervical cancer when the cervix is removed. However, measures of cervical cancer incidence often fail to exclude women with a hysterectomy from the population-at-risk denominator, underestimating and distorting disease burden. In this study, we estimated hysterectomy prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to remove the women who were not at risk of cervical cancer from the denominator and combined these estimates with the US Cancer Statistics data. From these data, we calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for women aged >30 years from 2001-2019, adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence. We calculated the difference between unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates and examined trends by histology, age, race and ethnicity, and geographic region using joinpoint regression. The hysterectomy-adjusted cervical cancer incidence rate from 2001-2019 was 16.7 per 100 000 women—34.6% higher than the unadjusted rate. After adjustment, incidence rates were higher by approximately 55% among Black women, 56% among those living in the East South Central division, and 90% among women aged 70-79 and ≥80 years. These findings underscore the importance of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence to avoid underestimating cervical cancer incidence rates and masking disparities by age, race, and geographic region. This article is part of a Special Collection on Gynecological Cancers.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

Accelerated Aging System for Prognostics of Power Semiconductor Devices

Prognostics is an engineering discipline that focuses on estimation of the health state of a component and the prediction of its remaining useful life (RUL) before failure. Health state estimation is based on actual conditions and it is fundamental for the prediction of RUL under anticipated future usage. Failure of electronic devices is of great concern as future aircraft will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. Therefore, development of prognostics solutions for electronics is of key importance. This paper presents an accelerated aging system for gate-controlled power transistors. This system allows for the understanding of the effects of failure mechanisms, and the identification of leading indicators of failure which are essential in the development of physics-based degradation models and RUL prediction. In particular, this system isolates electrical overstress from thermal overstress. Also, this system allows for a precise control of internal temperatures, enabling the exploration of intrinsic failure mechanisms not related to the device packaging. By controlling the temperature within safe operation levels of the device, accelerated aging is induced by electrical overstress only, avoiding the generation of thermal cycles. The temperature is controlled by active thermal-electric units. Several electrical and thermal signals are measured in-situ and recorded for further analysis in the identification of leading indicators of failures. This system, therefore, provides a unique capability in the exploration of different failure mechanisms and the identification of precursors of failure that can be used to provide a health management solution for electronic devices.

Celaya, Jose R.↗

Ecosystem carbon transit versus turnover times in response to climate warming and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration

Ecosystem carbon (C) transit time is a critical diagnostic parameter to characterize land C sequestration. This parameter has different variants in the literature, including a commonly used turnover time. However, we know little about how different transit time and turnover time are in representing carbon cycling through multiple compartments under a non-steady state. In this study, we estimate both C turnover time as defined by the conventional stock over flux and mean C transit time as defined by the mean age of C mass leaving the system. We incorporate them into the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model to estimate C turnover time and transit time in response to climate warming and rising atmospheric [CO 2 ]. Modelling analysis shows that both C turnover time and transit time increase with climate warming but decrease with rising atmospheric [CO 2 ]. Warming increases C turnover time by 2.4 years and transit time by 11.8 years in 2100 relative to that at steady state in 1901. During the same period, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] decreases C turnover time by 3.8 years and transit time by 5.5 years. Our analysis shows that 65 % of the increase in global mean C transit time with climate warming results from the depletion of fast-turnover C pool. The remaining 35 % increase results from accompanied changes in compartment C age structures. Similarly, the decrease in mean C transit time with rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] results approximately equally from replenishment of C into fast-turnover C pool and subsequent decrease in compartment C age structure. Greatly different from the transit time, the turnover time, which does not account for changes in either C age structure or composition of respired C, underestimated impacts of warming and rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] on C diagnostic time and potentially led to deviations in estimating land C sequestration in multi-compartmental ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prevalence of Self-Reported Bothersome Tinnitus in U.S. Army Soldiers From January 1, 2015, Through September 30, 2019

Purpose: Tinnitus is a symptom of auditory dysfunction or injury and can be a precursor to permanent hearing loss. Tinnitus can interfere with communication, sleep, concentration, and mood; when this occurs, it is referred to as bothersome tinnitus. Annual hearing surveillance in the U.S. Army includes screening for bothersome tinnitus. Estimating the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus can facilitate prioritization of prevention and education efforts. The objective of this study was to examine Army hearing conservation data to estimate the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus as a function of age, hearing, sex, service component, and pay grade. Method: The study employed a cross-sectional, retrospective design. Records from 1,485,059 U.S. Army Soldiers retrieved from the Defense Occupational and Environmental Health Readiness System–Hearing Conservation were analyzed. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the prevalence of bothersome tinnitus and its associations with Soldiers' demographic characteristics. Results: The estimated prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was 17.1% between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2019; 13.6% of the Soldiers reported “bothered a little” and 3.5% reported “bothered a lot.” Proportionally, the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was higher for males, older Soldiers, and Reserve Component Soldiers. For every 1-year increase in age, the odds of self-reporting “bothered a little” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all tinnitus” would be expected to increase by 2.2% (2.1%, 2.3%), and the odds of self-reporting “bothered a lot” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all” tinnitus would be expected to increase by 3.6% (3.5%, 3.7%). Conclusions: The self-reported prevalence of bothersome tinnitus in the U.S. Army (17.1%) is substantially higher than that of the general population, where prevalence of bothersome tinnitus is estimated at 6.6%. Examination of bothersome tinnitus among Soldiers is an important step toward optimizing prevention, education, and intervention efforts.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Lifetime estimation of a BWR core shroud in terms of IGSCC

The continued operation of aging Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) worldwide requires gradually increasing cost of inspection, maintenance, and repair. Intergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking (IGSCC) in sensitized austenitic stainless steel piping first became a major issue for BWRs in the 1980s, resulting in recognition of the susceptibility of reactor internals to IGSCC. Shroud cracking identified in 1993–1994 confirmed that IGSCC of internals is a significant issue for BWRs. IGSCC is a time-dependent, material degradation process, which is caused and accelerated by the presence of residual stresses, material sensitization, irradiation, cold work, elevated temperature, and corrosive environments. This paper emphasizes the importance of accounting for corrosive environments, or more exactly, electrochemical phenomena in modelling IGSCC and predicting the service life of BWR in-vessel components, and stresses the necessity of performing such modeling not just for a single state point under full power conditions, but for the whole operating history of the reactor, including startups and shutdowns. Overall, this paper demonstrates that ignoring electrochemical considerations may result in underestimating component lifetime and lead to unnecessary expenses for inspection and repair.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗

Physicochemical assessment criteria for high-voltage pulse capacitors

In the paper, the applicability of decomposition products of internal insulation of high-voltage pulse capacitors is considered (aging is the reason for decomposition products of internal insulation). Decomposition products of internal insulation of high-voltage pulse capacitors can be used to evaluate their quality when in operation and in service. There have been three generations of markers of aging of insulation as in the case with power transformers. The area of applicability of markers of aging of insulation for power transformers has been studied and the area can be extended to high-voltage pulse capacitors. The research reveals that there is a correlation between the components and quantities of markers of aging of the first generation (gaseous decomposition products of insulation) dissolved in insulating liquid and the remaining life of high-voltage pulse capacitors. The application of markers of aging to evaluate the remaining service life of high-voltage pulse capacitor is a promising direction of research, because the design of high-voltage pulse capacitors keeps stability of markers of aging of insulation in high-voltage pulse capacitors. It is necessary to continue gathering statistical data concerning development of markers of aging of the first generation. One should also carry out research aimed at estimation of the remaining life of capacitors using markers of the second and the third generation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Topological aspects of age parameter

The well known NKG function is a very useful tool to describe the lateral extension of the electromagnetic component in Extensive Air Showers (EAS); however, in spite of non-negligible qualities (simplicity, normalization by beta function), it doesn't correspond exactly to the natural shape of the lateral electron distribution. Several bias may occur in size estimation if NKG is used without correction. It is shown that the longitudinal age parameter s sub t can be correlated with the information obtained from the lateral electron densities according to the conditions of use of the NKG function.

Capdevielle, J. N.↗

The formation and evolution of the Moon’s crust inferred from the Sm-Nd isotopic systematics of highlands rocks

Ages determined for magnesian and ferroan anorthosite crustal rock suites overlap, suggesting they formed contemporaneously about 4.3–4.5 Ga. A notable exception is the Sm-Nd age previously determined on Mg-suite gabbronorite 67667 which is at least 100 Ma younger than the youngest ferroan anorthosite. New chronologic measurements of 67667 presented here yield concordant Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr mineral isochron ages of 4349 ± 31 Ma and 4368 ± 67 Ma, suggesting the sample is older than previous estimates. Furthermore, a whole rock Sm-Nd isochron of Mg-suite rocks from the Apollo 14, 15, 16, and 17 landing sites yields an age of 4348 ± 25 Ma, indicating that Mg-suite magmatism was widespread and roughly contemporaneous on the lunar nearside. Here, analysis of Sm-Nd internal isochron ages confirms that Mg-suite magmatism was restricted to a period between about 4.33 and 4.35 Ga at the Apollo 14, 15, 16, and 17 landing sites and was synchronous with magmatism at the Apollo 16 site associated with the ferroan anorthosite suite between 4.35 and 4.37 Ga. Magnesian- and ferroan anorthosite suite rocks with ages younger than ~4.33 Ga appear to have experienced slow cooling in the deep lunar interior, so that the ages record when the samples cooled below the closure temperature of the Sm-Nd isotopic system and not the time they crystallized.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The electro-mechanical effect from charge dynamics on polymeric insulation lifetime

For polymeric material used as electrical insulation, the presence of space charges could be the consequence of material degradations that are thermally activated but increased by the application of an electric field. The dynamics of space charge, therefore, can be potentially used to characterize the material. In this direction, a new aging model in which parameters have clear physical meanings has been developed and applied to the material to extrapolate the lifetime. The kinetic equation has been established based on charge trapping and detrapping of the injected charge from the electrodes. The local electromechanical energy stored in the region surrounding the trap is able to reduce the trap-depth with a value related to the electric field. At a level where the internal electric field exceeds the detrapping field in the material, an electron can be efficiently detrapped and the released energy from detrapping process can cause a weak bond or chain scission i.e. material degradation. The model has been applied to the electro-thermally aged low density polyethylene film samples, showing well fitted result, as well as interesting relationships between parameter estimates and insulation morphology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Carbon dioxide Angiography-Guided Renal-Related Interventions in Patients with Takayasu Arteritis and Renal Insufficiency

BackgroundUse of iodinated contrast agents for angiography in patients with renal insufficiency risks further deterioration of renal function and its adverse sequelae.ObjectiveTo study the effectiveness and safety of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) angiography in guiding percutaneous renal-related interventions in patients with Takayasu arteritis and renal insufficiency.MethodsData on CO{sub 2} angiography-guided interventions were obtained from a 23-year database of 692 Takayasu arteritis patients who underwent percutaneous interventions and were analyzed retrospectively. Follow-up data were also obtained. The CO{sub 2} angiography system used was developed in-house and was pressure-driven.ResultsSeven patients (6 female, age 16–59 years, baseline serum creatinine 1.62–4.55 mg/dl, estimated glomerular filtration rate 12.2–36.9 ml/min/1.73 m{sup 2}) underwent CO{sub 2} angiography-guided interventions: five underwent angioplasty or stenting to treat six stenotic/occluded renal arteries, one underwent extensive endovascular repair for spontaneous focal abdominal aortic dissection with false lumen aneurysm and aorto-iliac true lumen narrowing, and one underwent balloon dilatation of previously deployed aortic stents used to treat aortic occlusion at two levels. Follow-up (median 5 years, range 2 months–16 years) was obtained in all patients. All the procedures were successful and resulted in relief of symptoms, better blood pressure control, improvement in left ventricular systolic function and recovery or stabilization of renal function. There were no early or late complications related to CO{sub 2} angiography. Three renal lesions that had restenosis at follow-up were managed successfully by repeat intervention.ConclusionCO{sub 2} angiography-guided renal-related interventions are effective and safe in patients with Takayasu arteritis and renal insufficiency; they significantly improve the care of such patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Temperature dependence of uranium and thorium partitioning in igneous zircons

Zircon is a key mineral in geochronology because of its chemical and physical durability and tendency to incorporate radioactive trace elements such as U and Th. Quantifying the partitioning of the actinide elements is critical to constrain initial non-secular equilibrium amounts of 230 Th in zircon. An excess or deficit of 206 Pb will be produced from such an initial excess/deficit of 230 Th from the secular equilibrium condition, which influences the calculated 206 Pb/ 238 U age (Schärer, 1984, Mattinson, 1973). However, there is no standard way to calculate Th/U partitioning ratios when applying age corrections to young igneous zircon, making uncertainties hard to estimate. To better understand U and Th partitioning of zircon/melt that is the cornerstone of the secular disequilibrium correction, zircon was synthesized in one-atmosphere experiments using basaltic andesite, andesite, and rhyolite starting materials, doped with Zr, U, and Th. Different experimental temperatures and oxygen fugacity conditions (ΔQFM−4 to ΔQFM+4) were explored to examine their effects on U and Th partitioning. In addition, we specifically quantify the effects of sector zoning, fractional crystallization, and melt composition on U and Th partitioning. By combining experimental and natural zircon data, we find that temperature has the primary control on the partitioning of U and Th in the zircon and calibrate an inverse relationship between these partition coefficients and crystallization temperatures. The calibrated equation can be applied to the 230 Th correction for an improvement in the accuracy of Th-corrected 206 Pb/ 238 U dates when the zircon crystallization temperature is known.

206Pb/238U dating↗

Biophysical characterization and a roadmap towards the NMR solution structure of G0S2, a key enzyme in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

In the United States non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common form of chronic liver disease, affecting an estimated 80 to 100 million people. It occurs in every age group, but predominantly in people with risk factors such as obesity and type 2 diabetes. NAFLD is marked by fat accumulation in the liver leading to liver inflammation, which may lead to scarring and irreversible damage progressing to cirrhosis and liver failure. In animal models, genetic ablation of the protein G0S2 leads to alleviation of liver damage and insulin resistance in high fat diets. The research presented in this paper aims to aid in rational based drug design for the treatment of NAFLD by providing a pathway for a solution state NMR structure of G0S2. Here we describe the expression of G0S2 in an E. coli system from two different constructs, both of which are confirmed to be functionally active based on the ability to inhibit the activity of Adipose Triglyceride Lipase. In one of the constructs, preliminary NMR spectroscopy measurements show dominant alpha-helical characteristics as well as resonance assignments on the N-terminus of G0S2, allowing for further NMR work with this protein. Additionally, the characterization of G0S2 oligomers are outlined for both constructs, suggesting that G0S2 may defensively exist in a multimeric state to protect and potentially stabilize the small 104 amino acid protein within the cell. This information presented on the structure of G0S2 will further guide future development in the therapy for NAFLD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Six-Month Outcomes of Infants Born to People With SARS-CoV-2 in Pregnancy

OBJECTIVES To assess the 6-month incidence of laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, postnatal care, hospitalization, and mortality among infants born to people with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy by timing of maternal infection. METHODS Using a cohort of liveborn infants from pregnancies with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the year 2020 from 10 United States jurisdictions in the Surveillance for Emerging Threats to Mother and Babies Network, we describe weighted estimates of infant outcomes from birth through 6 months of age from electronic health and laboratory records. RESULTS Of 6601 exposed infants with laboratory information through 6 months of age, 1.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.8–1.1) tested positive, 19.1% (17.5–20.6) tested negative, and 80.0% (78.4–81.6) were not known to be tested for SARS-CoV-2. Among those ≤14 days of age, SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred only with maternal infection ≤14 days before delivery. Of 3967 infants with medical record abstraction, breastmilk feeding initiation was lower when maternal infection occurred ≤14 days before delivery compared with >14 days (77.6% [72.5–82.6] versus 88.3% [84.7–92.0]). Six-month all-cause hospitalization was 4.1% (2.0–6.2). All-cause mortality was higher among infants born to people with infection ≤14 days (1.0% [0.4–1.6]) than >14 days (0.3% [0.1–0.5]) before delivery. CONCLUSIONS Results are reassuring, with low incidences of most health outcomes examined. Incidence of infant SARS-CoV-2, breastmilk feeding initiation, and all-cause mortality differed by timing of maternal infection. Strategies to prevent infections and support pregnant people with coronavirus disease 2019 may improve infant outcomes.

Pediatrics↗

DETERMINING THE AGE OF THE KEPLER OPEN CLUSTER NGC 6819 WITH A NEW TRIPLE SYSTEM AND OTHER ECLIPSING BINARY STARS

As part of our study of the old (∼2.5 Gyr) open cluster NGC 6819 in the Kepler field, we present photometric (Kepler and ground-based BVR{sub C}I{sub C}) and spectroscopic observations of the detached eclipsing binary WOCS 24009 (Auner 665; KIC 5023948) with a short orbital period of 3.6 days. WOCS 24009 is a triple-lined system, and we verify that the brightest star is physically orbiting the eclipsing binary using radial velocities and eclipse timing variations. The eclipsing binary components have masses M{sub B} = 1.090 ± 0.010 M{sub ⊙} and M{sub C} = 1.075 ± 0.013 M{sub ⊙}, and radii R{sub B} = 1.099 ± 0.006 ± 0.005 R{sub ⊙} and R{sub C} = 1.069 ± 0.006 ± 0.013 R{sub ⊙}. The bright non-eclipsing star resides at the cluster turnoff, and ultimately its mass will directly constrain the turnoff mass: our preliminary determination is M{sub A} = 1.251 ± 0.057 M{sub ⊙}. A careful examination of the light curves indicates that the fainter star in the eclipsing binary undergoes a very brief period of total eclipse, which enables us to precisely decompose the light of the three stars and place them in the color–magnitude diagram (CMD). We also present improved analysis of two previously discussed detached eclipsing stars in NGC 6819 (WOCS 40007 and WOCS 23009) en route to a combined determination of the cluster’s distance modulus (m − M){sub V} = 12.38 ± 0.04. Because this paper significantly increases the number of measured stars in the cluster, we can better constrain the age of the CMD to be 2.21 ± 0.10 ± 0.20 Gyr. Additionally, using all measured eclipsing binary star masses and radii, we constrain the age to 2.38 ± 0.05 ± 0.22 Gyr. The quoted uncertainties are estimates of measurement and systematic uncertainties (due to model physics differences and metal content), respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

YOUNG STELLAR CLUSTERS CONTAINING MASSIVE YOUNG STELLAR OBJECTS IN THE VVV SURVEY

The purpose of this research is to study the connections of the global properties of eight young stellar clusters projected in the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) ESO Large Public Survey disk area and their young stellar object (YSO) populations. The analysis is based on the combination of spectroscopic parallax-based reddening and distance determinations with main-sequence and pre-main-sequence ishochrone fitting to determine the basic parameters (reddening, age, distance) of the sample clusters. The lower mass limit estimations show that all clusters are low or intermediate mass (between 110 and 1800 M {sub ⊙}), the slope Γ of the obtained present-day mass functions of the clusters is close to the Kroupa initial mass function. The YSOs in the cluster’s surrounding fields are classified using low resolution spectra, spectral energy distribution fits with theoretical predictions, and variability, taking advantage of multi-epoch VVV observations. All spectroscopically confirmed YSOs (except one) are found to be massive (more than 8 M {sub ⊙}). Using VVV and GLIMPSE color–color cuts we have selected a large number of new YSO candidates, which are checked for variability and 57% are found to show at least low-amplitude variations. In few cases it was possible to distinguish between YSO and AGB classifications on the basis of light curves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Great Inequality and the Dynamical Disintegration of the Outer Solar System

Using an ensemble of N-body simulations, this paper considers the fate of the outer gas giants (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) after the Sun leaves the main sequence and completes its stellar evolution. Due to solar mass loss—which is expected to remove roughly half of the star’s mass—the orbits of the giant planets expand. This adiabatic process maintains the orbital period ratios, but the mutual interactions between planets and the width of mean-motion resonances (MMR) increase, leading to the capture of Jupiter and Saturn into a stable 5:2 resonant configuration. The expanded orbits, coupled with the large-amplitude librations of the critical MMR angle, make the system more susceptible to perturbations from stellar flyby interactions. Accordingly, within about 30 Gyr, stellar encounters perturb the planets onto the chaotic subdomain of the 5:2 resonance, triggering a large-scale instability, which culminates in the ejections of all but one planet over the subsequent ∼10 Gyr. After an additional ∼50 Gyr, a close stellar encounter (with a perihelion distance less than ∼200 au) liberates the final planet. Through this sequence of events, the characteristic timescale over which the solar system will be completely dissolved is roughly 100 Gyr. Our analysis thus indicates that the expected dynamical lifetime of the solar system is much longer than the current age of the universe, but is significantly shorter than previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗