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At least 739 records · Page 41

Compressibility effects on large structures in free shear flows

Space-time correlations were used to study compressibility effects on large structures in mixing layers. Two high-Reynolds number mixing layers with M(c) = 0.51 (case 1) and 0.86 (case 2) were studied. The results indicate that the structures in case 1 are similar to those in the incompressible case, but less organized. The structures in case 2 are highly three-dimensional, with a good spatial but a poor temporal orgnization. The streamwise correlations showed a decay rate four to five times greater for case 2 relative to case 1. While the spanwise correlations for case 1 showed trends similar to incompressible mixing layers, the behavior of case 2 was very different. The pressure fluctuations in the fully developed region of case 2 displayed significant rms variation in the spanwise direction with a well-defined pattern. Based on these measurements, the structures in case 2 seem to be of a horseshoe type, transversely spanning the mixing layer with the head in the low-speed side and the legs inclined in both the x-y and the x-z planes.

Samimy, M.↗

SC-228 Inclusion of DAA Warning Alert for TCAS Interoperability

This white paper summarizes NASA research results that have informed Special Committee 228 (SC-228) discussions and decisions regarding the inclusion of a warning-level alert within the detect and avoid (DAA) alerting structure for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). For UAS, the removal of the pilot from onboard the aircraft has eliminated the ability of the ground-based pilot in command (PIC) to use out-the-window visual information to make judgments about a potential threat of a loss of well clear with another aircraft. As a result, the DAA traffic display will be the primary source of information that the PIC can use to execute the three primary well clear functions: 1) detect a potential loss of well clear, 2) determine a resolution maneuver, and 3) upload that maneuver to the aircraft via the ground control station (GCS). In addition, pilots are required to coordinate with air traffic control (ATC) prior to maneuvering off of their approved flight plan. In determining an appropriate resolution maneuver to avoid a loss of well clear, the PIC must decide both when and how to maneuver, and both the timeliness and the accuracy (i.e., correctness) of the maneuver are critical to reducing the likelihood and/or severity of a loss of well clear. Alerting information is one of three critical components of the DAA display, along with traffic information elements (e.g., relative heading, speed and altitude) and maneuver guidance. Alerting information and maneuver guidance, in particular, have been found to have a significant impact, both statistically and practically, on pilots' ability to avoid and minimize the severity of losses of well clear While all three display components are key to pilots performing the traffic avoidance task of remaining well clear, in general, alerting information provides crucial information about when a resolution maneuver is required while maneuver guidance assists the pilot in determining how best to maneuver. A fundamental task of the DAA alerting system is to provide critical timing information to the pilot about the potential for a loss of well clear with another aircraft. This is done by employing both temporal and spatial thresholds that indicate to the pilot the likelihood and imminence of a loss of well clear. The design of the DAA alerting thresholds is a balancing act between eliciting the desired pilot response in real loss of well clear threat events and reducing excessive, unnecessary, and/or uncoordinated UAS maneuvering within the air traffic environment; larger thresholds, both spatially and temporally, may increase the likelihood of a pilot avoiding a loss of well clear, but it can also increase the frequency of maneuvering - especially in cases where a maneuver is not actually needed to maintain well clear. A series of human in the loop (HITL) simulations have been conducted as part of NASA's Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) project. The purpose of these HITLs has been to provide empirical results in order to inform development of the minimum human-machine interface requirements for the DAA system. This white paper will present those results which provide evidence of a human performance benefit (in terms of response times and ability to remain well clear of other aircraft) of the DAA warning alert both with and without a collision avoidance system on board the aircraft.

TCAS interoperability↗

Integrating Machine Learning into a Methodology for Early Detection of Wellbore Failure [Slides]

Approximately 93% of US total energy supply is dependent on wellbores in some form. The industry will drill more wells in next ten years than in the last 100 years (King, 2014). Global well population is around 1.8 million of which approximately 35% has some signs of leakage (i.e. sustained casing pressure). Around 5% of offshore oil and gas wells “fail” early, more with age and most with maturity. 8.9% of “shale gas” wells in the Marcellus play have experienced failure (120 out of 1,346 wells drilled in 2012) (Ingraffea et al., 2014). Current methods for identifying wells that are at highest priority for increased monitoring and/or at highest risk for failure consists of “hand” analysis of multi-arm caliper (MAC) well logging data and geomechanical models. Machine learning (ML) methods are of interest to explore feasibility for increasing analysis efficiency and/or enhanced detection of precursors to failure (e.g. deformations). MAC datasets used to train ML algorithms and preliminary tests were run for “predicting” casing collar locations and performed above 90% in classification and identifying of casing collar locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Machine Learning into a Methodology for Early Detection of Wellbore Failure [Slides]

Approximately 93% of US total energy supply is dependent on wellbores in some form. The industry will drill more wells in next ten years than in the last 100 years (King, 2014). Global well population is around 1.8 million of which approximately 35% has some signs of leakage (i.e. sustained casing pressure). Around 5% of offshore oil and gas wells “fail” early, more with age and most with maturity. 8.9% of “shale gas” wells in the Marcellus play have experienced failure (120 out of 1,346 wells drilled in 2012) (Ingraffea et al., 2014). Current methods for identifying wells that are at highest priority for increased monitoring and/or at highest risk for failure consists of “hand” analysis of multi-arm caliper (MAC) well logging data and geomechanical models. Machine learning (ML) methods are of interest to explore feasibility for increasing analysis efficiency and/or enhanced detection of precursors to failure (e.g. deformations). MAC datasets used to train ML algorithms and preliminary tests were run for “predicting” casing collar locations and performed above 90% in classification and identifying of casing collar locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental/Analytical Characterization of the RBCC Rocket-Ejector Mode

The experimental/analytical research work described here addresses the rocket-ejector mode (Mach 0-2 operational range) of the RBCC engine. The experimental phase of the program includes studying the mixing and combustion characteristics of the rocket-ejector system utilizing state-of-the-art diagnostic techniques. A two-dimensional variable geometry rocket-ejector system with enhanced optical access was utilized as the experimental platform. The goals of the experimental phase of the research being conducted at Penn State are to: (a) systematically increase the range of rocket-ejector understanding over a wide range of flow/geometry parameters and (b) provide a comprehensive data base for evaluating and anchoring CFD codes. Concurrent with the experimental activities, a CFD code benchmarking effort at Marshall Space Flight Center is also being used to further investigate the RBCC rocket-ejector mode. Experiments involving the single rocket based optically-accessible rocket-ejector system have been conducted for Diffusion and Afterburning (DAB) as well as Simultaneous Mixing and Combustion configurations. For the DAB configuration, air is introduced (direct-connect) or ejected (sea-level static) into a constant area mixer section with a centrally located gaseous oxygen (GO2)/gaseous hydrogen (GH2) rocket combustor. The downstream flowpath for this configuration includes a diffuser, an afterburner and a final converging nozzle. For the SMC configuration, the rocket is centrally located in a slightly divergent duct. For all tested configurations, global measurements of the axial pressure and heat transfer profiles as well as the overall engine thrust were made. Detailed measurements include major species concentration (H2 O2 N2 and H2O) profiles at various mixer locations made using Raman spectroscopy. Complementary CFD calculations of the flowfield at the experimental conditions also provide additional information on the physics of the problem. These calculations are being conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center to benchmark the FDNS code for RBCC engine operations for such configurations. The primary fluid physics of interests are the mixing and interaction of the rocket plume and secondary flow, subsequent combustion of the fuel rich rocket exhaust with the secondary flow and combustion of the injected afterburner flow. The CFD results are compared to static pressure along the RBCC duct walls, Raman Spectroscopy specie distribution data at several axial locations, net engine thrust and entrained air for the SLS cases. The CFD results compare reasonably well with the experimental results.

Ruf, J. H.↗

External Boundary Conditions for Three-Dimensional Problems of Computational Aerodynamics

We consider an unbounded steady-state flow of viscous fluid over a three-dimensional finite body or configuration of bodies. For the purpose of solving this flow problem numerically, we discretize the governing equations (Navier-Stokes) on a finite-difference grid. The grid obviously cannot stretch from the body up to infinity, because the number of the discrete variables in that case would not be finite. Therefore, prior to the discretization we truncate the original unbounded flow domain by introducing some artificial computational boundary at a finite distance of the body. Typically, the artificial boundary is introduced in a natural way as the external boundary of the domain covered by the grid. The flow problem formulated only on the finite computational domain rather than on the original infinite domain is clearly subdefinite unless some artificial boundary conditions (ABC's) are specified at the external computational boundary. Similarly, the discretized flow problem is subdefinite (i.e., lacks equations with respect to unknowns) unless a special closing procedure is implemented at this artificial boundary. The closing procedure in the discrete case is called the ABC's as well. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to constructing highly accurate ABC's for three-dimensional flow computations. The approach extends our previous technique developed for the two-dimensional case; it employs the finite-difference counterparts to Calderon's pseudodifferential boundary projections calculated in the framework of the difference potentials method (DPM) by Ryaben'kii. The resulting ABC's appear spatially nonlocal but particularly easy to implement along with the existing solvers. The new boundary conditions have been successfully combined with the NASA-developed production code TLNS3D and used for the analysis of wing-shaped configurations in subsonic (including incompressible limit) and transonic flow regimes. As demonstrated by the computational experiments and comparisons with the standard (local) methods, the DPM-based ABC's allow one to greatly reduce the size of the computational domain while still maintaining high accuracy of the numerical solution. Moreover, they may provide for a noticeable increase of the convergence rate of multigrid iterations.

Tsynkov, Semyon V.↗

Comprehensive Review of Multi-arm Caliper Data for the Big Hill SPR Site

The Big Hill SPR site has a rich data set consisting of multi-arm caliper (MAC) logs collected from the cavern wells. This data set provides insight into the on-going casing deformation at the Big Hill site. This report summarizes the MAC surveys for each well and presents well longevity estimates where possible. Included in the report is an examination of the well twins for each cavern and a discussion on what may or may not be responsible for the different levels of deformation between some of the well twins. The report also takes a systematic view of the MAC data presenting spatial patterns of casing deformation and deformation orientation in an effort to better understand the underlying causes. The conclusions present a hypothesis suggesting the small-scale variations in casing deformation are attributable to similar scale variations in the character of the salt-caprock interface. These variations do not appear directly related to shear zones or faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

2024 Update of Comprehensive Review of Multi-arm Caliper Data for the Big Hill SPR Site

The Big Hill SPR site has a rich data set consisting of multi-arm caliper (MAC) logs collected from the cavern wells. This data set provides insight into the on-going casing deformation at the Big Hill site. This report summarizes the MAC surveys for each well and presents well longevity estimates where possible. Included in the report is an examination of the well twins for each cavern and a discussion on what may or may not be responsible for the different levels of deformation between some of the well twins. The report also takes a systematic view of the MAC data presenting spatial patterns of casing deformation and deformation orientation in an effort to better understand the underlying causes. The conclusions present a hypothesis suggesting the small-scale variations in casing deformation are attributable to similar scale variations in the character of the salt-caprock interface. These variations do not appear directly related to shear zones or faults. In addition, the deformation orientation shows no preferred directionality. This 2024 edition of this report represents an update to the original, 2023 edition. The updates primarily focus on the inclusion of MAC log data run since the December 2021 threshold date for the original report, but some new analyses are also included.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of Computational Schemes on Coupled Flow and Geo-Mechanical Modeling of CO 2 Leakage through a Compromised Well

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technically viable processes to separate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial byproduct streams and inject it into deep geologic formations for long-term storage. Legacy wells located within the spatial domain of new injection and production activities represent potential pathways for fluids (i.e., CO 2 and aqueous phase) to leak through compromised components (e.g., through fractures or micro-annulus pathways). The finite element (FE) method is a well-established numerical approach to simulate the coupling between multi-phase fluid flow and solid phase deformation interactions that occur in a compromised well system. We assumed the spatial domain consists of a three-phases system: a solid, liquid, and gas phase. For flow in the two fluids phases, we considered two sets of primary variables: the first considering capillary pressure and gas pressure (PP) scheme, and the second considering liquid pressure and gas saturation (PS) scheme. Fluid phases were coupled with the solid phase using the full coupling (i.e., monolithic coupling) and iterative coupling (i.e., sequential coupling) approaches. The challenge of achieving numerical stability in the coupled formulation in heterogeneous media was addressed using the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques. Numerical results were compared with three benchmark problems to assess the performance of coupled FE solutions: 1D Terzaghi’s consolidation, Liakopoulos experiments, and the Kueper and Frind experiments. We found good agreement between our results and the three benchmark problems. For the Kueper and Frind test, the PP scheme successfully captured the observed experimental response of the non-aqueous phase infiltration, in contrast to the PS scheme. These exercises demonstrate the importance of fluid phase primary variable selection for heterogeneous porous media. We then applied the developed model to the hypothetical case of leakage along a compromised well representing a heterogeneous media. Considering the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques, both the monotonic and the sequential coupling provided identical results, but mass lumping was needed to avoid numerical instabilities in the sequential coupling. Additionally, in the monolithic coupling, the magnitude of primary variables in the coupled solution without mass lumping and the upwinding is higher, which is essential for the risk-based analyses.

deformation flow↗

tapir: A tool for topologies, amplitudes, partial fraction decomposition and input for reductions

The demand for precision predictions in the field of high energy physics has dramatically increased over recent years. Experiments conducted at the LHC, as well as precision measurements at the intensity frontier such as Belle II require equally precise theoretical predictions to make full use of the acquired data. To match the experimental precision, second-, third- and, for certain quantities, even higher-order calculations in perturbative quantum field theory are required. To facilitate such calculations, computer software automating as many steps as possible is required. Yet, each calculation poses different challenges and thus, a high level of configurability is required. In this context we present tapir: a tool for identification, manipulation and minimization of Feynman integral families. It is designed to integrate in toolchains based on the computer algebra system FORM, the use of which is common practice in the field. tapir can be used to reduce the complexity of multi-loop problems with cut-filters, topology mapping, partial fraction decomposition and alike. Program Title:tapir CPC Library link to program files:https://doi.org/10.17632/ptc9t46xyn.1 Developer's repository link:https://gitlab.com/tapir-devs/tapir Licensing provisions: GPLv3 Programming language:python 3, C++ Nature of problem: Multi-loop computations require the automatization of a large number of different tasks related to Feynman integral topologies. Among them are the identification and minimization of integral topologies, partial fraction decomposition of topologies in the case of linearly dependent propagators as well as mapping scalar products of loop momenta to scalar functions. Solution method: The minimization of topologies is performed by comparison of their respective Nickel indices [1], even further minimization utilizes Pak's algorithm [2]. To efficiently map scalar products of loop momenta to scalar functions FORM [3] code is generated. Additional comments including restrictions and unusual features: Minimization based on Pak's algorithm slows down for many lines and scales. A coarser minimization using the Nickel indices, however, is still possible. [1]B. Nickel, D. Meiron, G.A.J. Baker, Compilation of 2-pt and 4-pt graphs for continuous spin model, Report, University of Guelph, 1977.[2]A. Pak, J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 368 (2012) 012049, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/368/1/012049, arXiv:1111.0868.[3]B. Ruijl, T. Ueda, J. Vermaseren, FORM version 4.2, arXiv:1707.06453, 7 2017.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Explorations of Psyche and Callisto Enabled by Ion Propulsion

Recent developments in ion propulsion (specifically solar electric propulsion - SEP) have the potential for dramatically reducing the transportation cost of planetary missions. We examine two representative cases, where these new developments enable missions which, until recently, would have required resouces well beyond those allocated to the Discovery program. The two cases of interest address differentiation of asteroids and large icy satellites

planetary missions↗

Geology and Hydrothermal Alteration of the Raft River Geothermal System, Idaho

The Raft River geothermal system is located in southern Idaho, near the Utah-Idaho state boarder in the Raft River Valley. The field, which is owned and operated by U.S. Geothermal, has been selected as an EGS demonstration site by the U. S. Department of Energy. This paper summarizes ongoing geologic and petrologic investigations being conducted in support of this project. The reservoir is developed in fractured Proterozoic schist and quartzite, and Archean quartz monzonite cut by younger diabase intrusions. The basement complex was deformed during the mid Tertiary and covered by approximately 5000 ft of late Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic deposits. Listric normal faults of Cenozoic age disrupt the Tertiary deposits but do not offset the basement rocks. RRG-9, the target well, was drilled southwest of the main well field to a measured depth (MD) of 6089 ft. The well is deviated to the west and cased to a depth of 2316 ft MD. It penetrated the Proterozoic reservoir rocks at a depth of 5286 ft MD and encountered a maximum temperature of 139 degrees C. Bottomhole temperatures in other deep wells range from 133 to 149 degrees C. X-ray diffraction and thin section analyses are being conducted on samples from 5 deep wells, RRG- 1, 2, 3, 7 and 9, to determine the characteristics of the rock types and hydrothermal alteration within the geothermal system. Thin section analyses of samples from RRG-9 document the presence of strong alteration and brecciation at the contact between the Tertiary and basement complex. The Tertiary rocks consist of ash-flow tuffs, lava flows, tuffaceous siltstone, greywacke, and sandstone. No core is available from RRG-9 but core was obtained from RRG-3C. The sample is a brecciated and altered siltstone from the base of the Tertiary sequence and is similar to rocks at the base of the Tertiary deposits in RRG-9. Here, the results of thermal and quasi-static mechanical property measurements that were conducted on the core sample are presented.

Jones, Clay↗

BuildingSync® v.2.7.0 (released 9.11.2025) [SWR-18-28]

BuildingSync® is a building data exchange schema to better enable integration between software tools and building data workflows. The schema's original use case was focused on commercial building energy audits; however, several additional use cases have been realized including building energy modeling and more high-level generic building data exchange. Version 2.7.0 adds new elements for file attachment feature and FederalBuilding, and generalizes usage of Optional Elements (e.g. EquipmentCondition, EquipmentID) to all assets/systems. BuildingSync helps streamline the data exchange process, improving the value of the data, minimizing duplication of effort for subsequent building data collection efforts (including audits), and facilitating the achievement of greater energy efficiency. This in done in part by standardizing on (a) reporting audits in an electronic format, (b) tracking proposed, implemented, and discarded energy conservation measures, and (c) storing building characteristics (at multiple levels) for audits, benchmarking, and building energy analysis. BuildingSync has several documents and tools available to help users understand how to best leverage BuildingSync. The list below are only a subset of the resources available. If new resources are discovered, then feel free to create a new pull request with the additions. Generic BuildingSync information is available on the DOE website and the project website. BuildingSync Examples - These examples are kept up to date and show a wide range of implementations. Any new update to BuildingSync is required to pass validation on these example files. BuildingSync Use Case Validator allows for users to determine if their instance complies with a specific use case for BuildingSync by checking if the required elements are implemented in an uploaded instance. An API is also provided for automated integration into other tools. Also, the website contains an easy way to view the entirety of the schema and how elements relate to the Building Exchange Data Exchange Specification. The Validator is open sourced here Use Case TestSuite provides a Python package for easier generation of BuildingSync use cases. BuildingSync use cases depend on the generation of schematron documents, which is time-consuming and difficult to implement well. The TestSuite allows users to define a use case using a more palatable CSV template, which it then turns into a Schematron document. The source code is available here. BuildingSync to OpenStudio/EnergyPlus. The translator is open sourced here. This project will translate a Level 1 (and partial Level 2) ASHRAE Energy Audit to a fully defined OpenStudio and EnergyPlus model. This project is in early Beta testing and any feedback is welcome!

Long, Nicholas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

PRIMO – The Oil & Gas Well Plugging Optimizer

This work presents PRIMO’s main capabilities and introduces the PRIMO web application, an intuitive user interface that leverages our sophisticated mathematical optimization model to rigorously optimize P&A priorities and plugging campaign efficiency. The web app simplifies user interaction, provides a powerful data management framework, and supports a broad user base (e.g., state agencies, well owners/operators, and plugging companies) to use PRIMO for decision-making. Specifically, we provide a demonstration of how to input the information on candidate wells, plugging campaign budget, user-defined priority and efficiency criteria to PRIMO. A real-world case study that consists of 1411 oil and gas wells and impact and efficiency priorities (e.g., well age, well proximity to schools/hospitals, well accessibility, distance between wells in projects) is presented to showcase PRIMO’s core capabilities: (i) ranking a candidate well population based on priorities, (ii) recommending high-impact and high-efficiency P&A projects, and (iii) assigning impact and efficiency scores to projects allowing for rigorous quantitative comparison among them.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Tests of a Semi-Analytical Case 1 and Gelbstoff Case 2 SeaWiFS Algorithm with a Global Data Set

A semi-analytical algorithm was tested with a total of 733 points of either unpackaged or packaged-pigment data, with corresponding algorithm parameters for each data type. The 'unpackaged' type consisted of data sets that were generally consistent with the Case 1 CZCS algorithm and other well calibrated data sets. The 'packaged' type consisted of data sets apparently containing somewhat more packaged pigments, requiring modification of the absorption parameters of the model consistent with the CalCOFI study area. This resulted in two equally divided data sets. A more thorough scrutiny of these and other data sets using a semianalytical model requires improved knowledge of the phytoplankton and gelbstoff of the specific environment studied. Since the semi-analytical algorithm is dependent upon 4 spectral channels including the 412 nm channel, while most other algorithms are not, a means of testing data sets for consistency was sought. A numerical filter was developed to classify data sets into the above classes. The filter uses reflectance ratios, which can be determined from space. The sensitivity of such numerical filters to measurement resulting from atmospheric correction and sensor noise errors requires further study. The semi-analytical algorithm performed superbly on each of the data sets after classification, resulting in RMS1 errors of 0.107 and 0.121, respectively, for the unpackaged and packaged data-set classes, with little bias and slopes near 1.0. In combination, the RMS1 performance was 0.114. While these numbers appear rather sterling, one must bear in mind what mis-classification does to the results. Using an average or compromise parameterization on the modified global data set yielded an RMS1 error of 0.171, while using the unpackaged parameterization on the global evaluation data set yielded an RMS1 error of 0.284. So, without classification, the algorithm performs better globally using the average parameters than it does using the unpackaged parameters. Finally, the effects of even more extreme pigment packaging must be examined in order to improve algorithm performance at high latitudes. Note, however, that the North Sea and Mississippi River plume studies contributed data to the packaged and unpackaged classess, respectively, with little effect on algorithm performance. This suggests that gelbstoff-rich Case 2 waters do not seriously degrade performance of the semi-analytical algorithm.

Carder, Kendall L.↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of a 12 MW Circulating Fluidized Bed Rise

A three-dimensional (3D) two fluid model (TFM) model of the 12 MW circulating fluidized bed (CFB) riser at Chalmers University was developed using the open-source Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) Software Suite. The hydrodynamic behavior of the riser was validated by comparing axial pressure profiles from experimental measurements with the results from the simulations. Under some of the operating conditions where there was no external circulation of solids, the pressure profiles from the simulation matched well with the experimental measurements. For the cases where there was external circulation of solids, the pressure profiles with the monodisperse solid phase modeling underpredicted the solids concentration in the freeboard region. With the inclusion of polydispersity in the model, the predicted pressure profiles agreed well with the experimental measurements. A two-dimensional (2D) model of the riser was used to perform simulations of coal combustion. The predicted flue gas outlet compositions of oxygen and carbon dioxide compared reasonably to experiments. The experiments also reported some concentration of carbon monoxide which was overpredicted in the simulations. Additional experimental data such as axial oxygen concentration profile and pressure profiles were also compared with the experiment. It was observed that the oxygen concentration in the bottom bed from the simulations was higher than in the experiments, which suggested that most of the oxidation reactions occurred in the bottom bed. The concentration of volatiles and char in the simulations was lower in the bottom bed than in the experiments, which suggest that there is not sufficient penetration of the solid phase species into the bed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗