Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 739 records · Page 41

The Application of Remote Sensing using NASA Earth Observations paired with Sociodemographic Indicators to Identify Communities Most Susceptible to Urban Heat Exposure in Austin, Texas

In recent years, Austin, Texas has experienced an increase in population and urban development. Additionally, the City’s climate—already characterized by periods of extreme heat and drought—continues to change. As temperatures and demand for utilities and cooling resources rise, the number of heat-related deaths and illnesses in socially vulnerable populations (e.g., older, lower-income populations) is expected to increase. The City of Austin, The University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin), and The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UT Health) partnered with NASA DEVELOP to examine the distribution of urban heat throughout the City. This project used land surface temperature, greenness, plant water content, and urban surface material analysis parameters derived from NASA Earth observations from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The project team produced three different indices to create a spatial analysis for the study area including a social vulnerability index (SoVI), heat exposure index (HEI), and an overall heat priority index (HPI) score. This overall score was determined with a weighted analysis of heat-related environmental variables from NASA Earth observations and socioeconomic data from the 2019 American Community Survey. Based on the HPI score, the project team identified 121 census block groups out of 605 total that are designated as being most at risk of adverse impacts from extreme heat events. To test the sensitivity of the HPI, the team used a Monte Carlo analysis using different approaches for geographic scale, variable inclusion, census uncertainty, and index aggregation. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the resulting HPI score showed the metric was consistent with the baseline HPI. This provided increased confidence the score can be used as a tool to make informed infrastructure improvement plans in targeted areas (e.g., siting of cooling centers) and ensure equitable sustainable development.

Ryan Hammock↗

Theory and design of variable conductance heat pipes

A comprehensive review and analysis of all aspects of heat pipe technology pertinent to the design of self-controlled, variable conductance devices for spacecraft thermal control is presented. Subjects considered include hydrostatics, hydrodynamics, heat transfer into and out of the pipe, fluid selection, materials compatibility and variable conductance control techniques. The report includes a selected bibliography of pertinent literature, analytical formulations of various models and theories describing variable conductance heat pipe behavior, and the results of numerous experiments on the steady state and transient performance of gas controlled variable conductance heat pipes. Also included is a discussion of VCHP design techniques.

Marcus, B. D.↗

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: Part III. Using Combined PCA to Compare Spatiotemporal Variability of MODIS, MISR and OMI Aerosol Optical Depth

Satellite measurements of global aerosol properties are very useful in constraining aerosol parameterization in climate models. The reliability of different data sets in representing global and regional aerosol variability becomes an essential question. In this study, we present the results of a comparison using combined principal component analysis (CPCA), applied to monthly mean, mapped (Level 3) aerosol optical depth (AOD) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). This technique effectively finds the common space-time variability in the multiple data sets by decomposing the combined AOD field. The results suggest that all of the sensors capture the globally important aerosol regimes, including dust, biomass burning, pollution, and mixed aerosol types. Nonetheless, differences are also noted. Specifically, compared with MISR and OMI, MODIS variability is significantly higher over South America, India, and the Sahel. MODIS deep blue AOD has a lower seasonal variability in North Africa, accompanied by a decreasing trend that is not found in either MISR or OMI AOD data. The narrow swath of MISR results in an underestimation of dust variability over the Taklamakan Desert. The MISR AOD data also exhibit overall lower variability in South America and the Sahel. OMI does not capture the Russian wild fire in 2010 nor the phase shift in biomass burning over East South America compared to Central South America, likely due to cloud contamination and the OMI row anomaly. OMI also indicates a much stronger (boreal) winter peak in South Africa compared with MODIS and MISR.

satellite observation↗

Sensitivity of the normalized difference vegetation index to subpixel canopy cover, soil albedo, and pixel scale

An analytical framework is provided for examining the physically based behavior of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in terms of the variability in bulk subpixel landscape components and with respect to variations in pixel scales, within the context of the stochastic-geometric canopy reflectance model. Analysis focuses on regional scale variability in horizontal plant density and soil background reflectance distribution. Modeling is generalized to different plant geometries and solar angles through the use of the nondimensional solar-geometric similarity parameter. Results demonstrate that, for Poisson-distributed plants and for one deterministic distribution, NDVI increases with increasing subpixel fractional canopy amount, decreasing soil background reflectance, and increasing shadows, at least within the limitations of the geometric reflectance model. The NDVI of a pecan orchard and a juniper landscape is presented and discussed.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

The role of refractive interstellar scintillation in the low frequency variability of extragalactic radio sources

A statistical analysis is presented of the 408 MHz flux density time series of 39 extragalactic radio sources, to study the role of refractive interstellar scintillation in the decimeter wavelength variability of compact extragalactic radio sources. It is found that the product of the scintillation index and the variability timescale is systematically larger for sources at lower galactic latitudes. This variation is obscured by much larger random variations. Possible explanations of these results are discussed.

Spangler, S.↗

Regression Bias in using Solar Wind Measurements

Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.

magnetosphere↗

Energy and momentum conservation in the Euler–Poincaré formulation of local Vlasov–Maxwell-type systems

The action principle by Low for the classic Vlasov–Maxwell system contains a mix of Eulerian and Lagrangian variables. This renders the Noether analysis of reparametrization symmetries inconvenient, especially since the well-known energy- and momentum-conservation laws for the system are expressed in terms of Eulerian variables only. While an Euler–Poincaré formulation of Vlasov–Maxwell-type systems, effectively starting with Low's action and using constrained variations for the Eulerian description of particle motion, has been known for a while Cendra et al, it is hard to come by a documented derivation of the related energy- and momentum-conservation laws in the spirit of the Euler–Poincaré machinery. To our knowledge only one such derivation exists in the literature so far, dealing with the so-called guiding-center Vlasov–Darwin system Sugama et al. The present exposition discusses a generic class of local Vlasov–Maxwell-type systems, with a conscious choice of adopting the language of differential geometry to exploit the Euler–Poincaré framework to its full extent. After reviewing the transition from a Lagrangian picture to an Eulerian one, we demonstrate how symmetries generated by isometries in space lead to conservation laws for linear- and angular-momentum density and how symmetry by time translation produces a conservation law for energy density. Here, we also discuss what happens if no symmetries exist. Finally, two explicit examples will be given—the classic Vlasov–Maxwell and the drift-kinetic Vlasov–Maxwell—and the results expressed in the language of regular vector calculus for familiarity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Linear continuous and sampled-data systems

Program performs general analysis of linear and continuous, discrete and sampled-data systems using state-variable techniques. Program is especially suited analysis of linearized control system problems. It also can be used to model system described by combination of differential equations and Laplace transform blocks, such as aircraft control system.

Edwards, J. W.↗

Data analysis for the accelerated test

Test variables discussed graphically include the effects of: (1) ambient temperature; (2) depth of the discharge; (3) discharge rate; (4) percent of recgargel (5) KOH concentration; (6) KOH volume; (7) charge rate and (8) negative per charge.

Bogner, S.↗

Diurnal variability of regional cloud and clear-sky radiative parameters derived from GOES data. I - Analysis method. II - November 1978 cloud distributions. III - November 1978 radiative parameters

Cloud cover is one of the most important variables affecting the earth radiation budget (ERB) and, ultimately, the global climate. The present investigation is concerned with several aspects of the effects of extended cloudiness, taking into account hourly visible and infrared data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satelite (GOES). A methodology called the hybrid bispectral threshold method is developed to extract regional cloud amounts at three levels in the atmosphere, effective cloud-top temperatures, clear-sky temperature and cloud and clear-sky visible reflectance characteristics from GOES data. The diurnal variations are examined in low, middle, high, and total cloudiness determined with this methodology for November 1978. The bulk, broadband radiative properties of the resultant cloud and clear-sky data are estimated to determine the possible effect of the diurnal variability of regional cloudiness on the interpretation of ERB measurements.

Minnis, P.↗

Diurnal variability of the hydrologic cycle in a general circulation model

In the present Colorado State University GCM simulation-based analysis of the diurnal and semidiurnal variability of precipitation, precipitable water, evaporation, cloudiness, horizontal moisture flux convergence, and cloud radiative forcing, a realistic afternoon precipitation maximum is obtained over land in warm rainy regions, as well as an early morning maximum over the oceans. The model has been further used to investigate the bases for the oceanic diurnal-precipitation cycle; the results thus obtained indicate that such an oceanic cycle occurs even in the absence of neighboring continents, and tends to have a morning maximum, although the observed phenomenon is generally stronger than the results indicate.

Randall, David A.↗

A probabilistic fatigue analysis of multiple site damage

The variability in initial crack size and fatigue crack growth is incorporated in a probabilistic model that is used to predict the fatigue lives for unstiffened aluminum alloy panels containing multiple site damage (MSD). The uncertainty of the damage in the MSD panel is represented by a distribution of fatigue crack lengths that are analytically derived from equivalent initial flaw sizes. The variability in fatigue crack growth rate is characterized by stochastic descriptions of crack growth parameters for a modified Paris crack growth law. A Monte-Carlo simulation explicitly describes the MSD panel by randomly selecting values from the stochastic variables and then grows the MSD cracks with a deterministic fatigue model until the panel fails. Different simulations investigate the influences of the fatigue variability on the distributions of remaining fatigue lives. Six cases that consider fixed and variable conditions of initial crack size and fatigue crack growth rate are examined. The crack size distribution exhibited a dominant effect on the remaining fatigue life distribution, and the variable crack growth rate exhibited a lesser effect on the distribution. In addition, the probabilistic model predicted that only a small percentage of the life remains after a lead crack develops in the MSD panel.

Rohrbaugh, S. M.↗

Analysis of penetration and mixing of gas jets in supersonic cross flow

The JETPEN analysis for gas jets in a supersonic cross flow developed earlier at APL/JHU has been extended in several important ways. First, the treatment of cases with injection at angles other than 90 deg has been redone. Next, the second of the three regions formerly treated has been eliminated. Third, the region downstream of the Mach disk for underexpanded cases has been reformulated such that turbulent entrainment of main stream fluid into the plume is modeled, and the equations of motion are solved marching downstream. These changes now permit prediction of the variation in composition, mixing area growth and all other flow variables along the plume. The analysis has been verified by comparison of predictions and experiment over a wide range of conditions. The result is an analysis capable of reliable predictions of the major flowfield variables that can be run on a PC.

Billig, F. S.↗

Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

Abstract While various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DNS of Flame Stabilization Dynamics of a Swirl-Stabilized Spray Burner Using Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Concern for emission reduction has motivated the development of new cost-effective alternative sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). Drop-in SAFs with blends of the certified and the alternative fuels are beneficial because they do not require engine modifications for use in current aviation engines. Combustion characteristics are of particular concern when comparing a new fuel with Jet-A. Lean blow-off and flame stabilization have been identified to be governed by the fuel propensity to autoignition, i.e. derived cetane number. However, fundamental investigation is required to identify the impact of derived cetane number on the combustion mode of flame stabilization in a realistic combustor. The combustion mode has also a direct impact on turbulent combustion modeling closures. DNS simulations are performed in the low-Mach solver of the Pele Suite called PeleLMeX. Lagrangian multi-phase modeling is used to capture the liquid spray injection of Jet-A (reference fuel) and C1 as a representative of a low cetane number SAF. Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) is used to enable a more efficient simulation of a more realistic domain size and embedded boundary treatment is used to model a bluff-body geometry. Local extinction and edge flame propagation were observed for both fuels. The edge flame propagation mode was quantified in terms of a Damkohler number defined as the ratio between progress variable reaction rate and its diffusive flux. Initial analysis suggests that a mixed mode combustion occurs for the edge flame propagation, with flame propagation assisted by ignition and autoignition co-existing for both Jet-A and C1 flames. The analysis of the extinction region shows a larger progress variable for Jet-A which can further increase the local displacement speed and present a faster reignition of the stoichiometric mixture fraction.

adaptive mesh refinement↗

Estimating regression coefficients from clustered samples: Sampling errors and optimum sample allocation

A number of surveys were conducted to study the relationship between the level of aircraft or traffic noise exposure experienced by people living in a particular area and their annoyance with it. These surveys generally employ a clustered sample design which affects the precision of the survey estimates. Regression analysis of annoyance on noise measures and other variables is often an important component of the survey analysis. Formulae are presented for estimating the standard errors of regression coefficients and ratio of regression coefficients that are applicable with a two- or three-stage clustered sample design. Using a simple cost function, they also determine the optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the sample design for the estimation of a regression coefficient.

Kalton, G.↗

Passive and active peer effects in the spatial diffusion of residential solar panels: A case study of the Las Vegas Valley

This research analyzes the role of peer influences on the adoption of residential rooftop solar photovoltaic panels (PV) within the context of the Diffusion of Innovation Theory. PV literature indicates that adopters are influenced by word of mouth (WOM) information exchange with peers, i.e., active peer effects, while other studies suggest that living near households with visible rooftop PV installations influences adoption, i.e., passive peer effects. We bridge the gap in this literature by conducting a mixed methods analysis. We develop and administer a survey to Las Vegas Valley (LVV) residents to identify current and potential PV adopters' perceptions of peer-effects and consumer intention variables. We conduct a spatial analysis of Google's Project Sunroof data to identify LVV neighborhoods in the later stages of the PV diffusion process, i.e., those with the highest PV adoption rates. Key results show that current PV adopters living in early diffusion areas report significantly higher active and passive peer effects compared to adopters in later diffusion areas. Potential adopters in later diffusion areas report higher passive peer effects than those in early diffusion areas. Overall, because LVV has a low PV adoption rate (<3%), short term strategies aimed at increasing PV adoption should emphasize WOM active peer effects. Here, we caution against long-term green marketing strategies focusing solely on peer-effects as the PV market matures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗