SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 739 records · Page 41

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2004

Use of Radon for Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models: Sensitivity to Emissions

This paper presents comparative analyses of atmospheric radon (Rn) distributions simulated using different emission scenarios and the observations. Results indicate that the model generally reproduces observed distributions of Rn but there are some biases in the model related to differences in large-scale and convective transport. Simulations presented here use an off-line three-dimensional chemical transport model driven by assimilated winds and two scenarios of Rn fluxes (atom/cm s) from ice-free land surfaces: (A) globally uniform flux of 1.0, and (B) uniform flux of 1.0 between 60 deg. S and 30 deg. N followed by a sharp linear decrease to 0.2 at 70 deg. N. We considered an additional scenario (C) where Rn emissions for case A were uniformly reduced by 28%. Results show that case A overpredicts observed Rn distributions in both hemispheres. Simulated northern hemispheric (NH) Rn distributions from cases B and C compare better with the observations, but are not discernible from each other. In the southern hemisphere, surface Rn distributions from case C compare better with the observations. We performed a synoptic scale source-receptor analysis for surface Rn to locate regions with ratios B/A and B/C less than 0.5. Considering an uncertainty in regional Rn emissions of a factor of two, our analysis indicates that additional measurements of surface Rn particularly during April-October and north of 50 deg. N over the Pacific as well as Atlantic regions would make it possible to determine if the proposed latitude gradient in Rn emissions is superior to a uniform flux scenario.

Gupta, Mohan L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of Interactions Between Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Operations and Conventional Traffic in Urban Areas: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) Study for UAM Operations

This paper presents results on potential interaction effects from UAM (Urban Air Mobility) operations integrated into current operational scenarios by evaluating if/where/how Traffic alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) alerts are triggered on-board commercial aircraft. A range of operational scenarios are evaluated with combinations of UAM vehicle route, speed, altitude, and direction along the DFW (Dallas-Fort Worth) "spine route." The effect of UAM altitude uncertainty on the above is also explored. The analysis was done for both South flow and North flow configurations of DFW. When UAM operations are deterministic, no TCAS RAs (Resolution Advisories) are issued. However, UAM altitude uncertainties point out geographic areas of concern with the associated severity of interactions.

Airspace↗

NASA NTRS1962

Design comparison of lunar return configurations

Parabolic manned re-entry design comparisons are made between two classes of slender and blunt configurations capable of conventional horizontal and vertical earth landings. Aerodynamic modulation using flaps and control augmentation requirements are discussed in terms of their effect upon re-entry trajectories and landing footprints. Within the environment defined by the re-entry trajectories, the convective and radiative modes of heat transfer are compared, their differences discussed, and the problems associated with the configurations for planetary return missions indicated. Thermal protection systems are discussed and the factors influencing the selection of a given system for the re-entry environment are indicated. Comparison between reflective and absorptive systems are made and the merits of each for a given flight time indicated. A thermo-structural analysis is presented which shows the trade-oft between structural operating temperature and heat protection system thickness requirements. Total heat shield and structural weights are compared for the landing footprints presented and their variation with range shown. Finally, the areas of uncertainty in the aero-thermo structural design analysis are indicated for each class of configuration studied, and the weight differences between conventional horizontal landing and vertical descent configurations are given.

Parabolic flight↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Merrill, R. Gabe↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating pixel-level uncertainty in ocean color retrievals from MODIS

The spectral distribution of marine remote sensing reflectance, R(rs), is the fundamental measurement of ocean color science, from which a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column can be derived. Estimation of uncertainty in these derived properties is thus dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R(rs) (u(c)(R(rs))) at each pixel. Uncertainty in R(rs), in turn, is dependent on the propagation of various uncertainty sources through the R(rs) retrieval process, namely the atmospheric correction (AC). A derivative-based method for uncertainty propagation is established here to calculate the pixel-level uncertainty in R(rs), as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) AC algorithm and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. The approach is then applied to measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite, with uncertainty sources including instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty. The uc(Rrs) is verified by comparison with statistical analysis of coincident retrievals from MODIS and in situ Rrs measurements, and our approach performs well in most cases. Based on analysis of an example 8-day global products, we also show that relative uncertainty in R(rs) at blue bands has a similar spatial pattern to the derived concentration of the phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a (chl-a), and around 7.3%, 17.0%, and 35.2% of all clear water pixels (chl-a ≤ 0.1 mg/cu.m) with valid u(c)(R(rs)) have a relative uncertainty ≤ 5% at bands 412 nm, 443 nm, and 488 nm respectively, which is a common goal of ocean color retrievals for clear waters. While the analysis shows that u(c)(R(rs)) calculated from our derivative-based method is reasonable, some issues need further investigation, including improved knowledge of forward model uncertainty and systematic uncertainty in instrument calibration.

Pixel-level uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multivariable control of the Space Shuttle remote manipulator system using H2 and H(infinity) optimization

Three linear controllers are desiged to regulate the end effector of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) operating in Position Hold Mode. In this mode of operation, jet firings of the Orbiter can be treated as disturbances while the controller tries to keep the end effector stationary in an orbiter-fixed reference frame. The three design techniques used include: the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), H2 optimization, and H-infinity optimization. The nonlinear SRMS is linearized by modelling the effects of the significant nonlinearities as uncertain parameters. Each regulator design is evaluated for robust stability in light of the parametric uncertanties using both the small gain theorem with an H-infinity norm and the less conservative micro-analysis test. All three regulator designs offer significant improvement over the current system on the nominal plant. Unfortunately, even after dropping performance requirements and designing exclusively for robust stability, robust stability cannot be achieved. The SRMS suffers from lightly damped poles with real parametric uncertainties. Such a system renders the micro-analysis test, which allows for complex peturbations, too conservative.

Prakash, OM, II↗

NASA NTRS1973

Constrained least-squares analysis of petrologic problems with an application to lunar sample 12040.

Many petrologic problems, which may be expressed as a set of linear equations, have been solved by least-squares analysis. In many cases insufficient attention has been paid to the physical conditions of the model resulting in incorrect application of the method. This paper presents a systematic treatment of the application of least-squares analysis to petrologic problems including the direct utilization of physical constraints and weighting factors in the problem, and the assessment of uncertainties in the solution. As an example, least-squares analysis is used to examine, in detail, the mass balance equations for lunar rock 12040 and to determine the consistency of the available analytical data.

Reid, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Study of the Effect of Temporal Sampling Frequency on DSCOVR Observations Using the GEOS-5 Nature Run Results: Cloud Coverage - Part II

This is the second part of a study on how temporal sampling frequency affects satellite retrievals in support of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission. Continuing from Part 1, which looked at Earth's radiation budget, this paper presents the effect of sampling frequency on DSCOVR-derived cloud fraction. The output from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Nature Run is used as the "truth". The effect of temporal resolution on potential DSCOVR observations is assessed by subsampling the full Nature Run data. A set of metrics, including uncertainty and absolute error in the subsampled time series, correlation between the original and the subsamples, and Fourier analysis have been used for this study. Results show that, for a given sampling frequency, the uncertainties in the annual mean cloud fraction of the sunlit half of the Earth are larger over land than over ocean. Analysis of correlation coefficients between the subsamples and the original time series demonstrates that even though sampling at certain longer time intervals may not increase the uncertainty in the mean, the subsampled time series is further and further away from the "truth" as the sampling interval becomes larger and larger. Fourier analysis shows that the simulated DSCOVR cloud fraction has underlying periodical features at certain time intervals, such as 8, 12, and 24 h. If the data is subsampled at these frequencies, the uncertainties in the mean cloud fraction are higher. These results provide helpful insights for the DSCOVR temporal sampling strategy.

GEOS-5↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 2, Togus, Maine

The economic analysis of the solar energy system, is developed for Torgus and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f-chart design procedure with inputs taken on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

descent and landing↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation final report for SEMCO-Loxahatchee, Loxahatchee National Wildlife refuge, Palm Beach County, Florida

Economic analysis of the solar energy system installed at Loxahatchee, was developed for Loxahatchee and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis was accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f Chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system costs over a projected twenty year life, life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated. The results demonstrate that the solar energy system is economically viable at all of the five sites for which the analysis was conducted.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1971

Thermal conductivity, electrical resistivity, and thermopower of aerospace alloys from 4 to 300 K.

Measurement of thermal conductivity, electrical resistivity, and thermopower for several aerospace alloys: titanium alloy A110-AT, aluminum alloy 7039, Inconel 718, and Hastelloy X. Tables and graphs of the measured properties and Lorenz ratio are presented over the range from 4 to 300 K. Comparisons to other measurements and theoretical analysis of the data are included. The uncertainties of the property data are estimated as 0.7 to 2.5% for thermal conductivity, 0.25% in electrical resistivity, and about 0.1 microvolt/K in thermopower.

Hust, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1970

An experiment with interactive planning models

Experiments on decision making in planning problems are described. Executives were tested in dealing with capital investments and competitive pricing decisions under conditions of uncertainty. A software package, the interactive risk analysis model system, was developed, and two controlled experiments were conducted. It is concluded that planning models can aid management, and predicted uses of the models are as a central tool, as an educational tool, to improve consistency in decision making, to improve communications, and as a tool for consensus decision making.

Beville, J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A one way Doppler tracking system for satellite to satellite tracking

An S-band tracking system employing one way Doppler applicable to the tracking and data relay system (TDRS) was evaluated. This evaluation is limited to the measurement system parameters. The analysis assumes state-of-the-art components such as spacecraft oscillator long term stability of one part in 10 to the 8th power and ground station oscillator stability of one part in 10 to the 11th power. Signal characteristics comparable with the present ranging systems are utilized in the analysis. Predicated upon measurement system parameters, position uncertainties for the low orbiting spacecraft vary from 5 meters to 2 kilometers along track, 4 meters to 1 kilometer cross track, and 1 meter to 180 meters radially depending upon the tracking geometry and the high satellite position and velocity error assumptions.

Bryan, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1974

ATS-F/GEOS-C satellite to satellite tracking data processing consideration

The satellite to satellite tracking data unique processing considerations are presented. The strategy to be employed in the application of data processing routines to the ATS-F/GEOS-C satellite to satellite tracking experiment is described. When these considerations are included, studies, analysis and simulations predict an orbital position uncertainty of less than 15 meters and a velocity uncertainty of less than 1.5 millimeters per second.

Bryan, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Attitude determination system for Seasat-A mission

The attitude determination (AD) system hardware of Seasat-A consists of two sun aspect sensors, two infrared (IR) horizon scanners, related electronics, telemetry, and science sensors. The earth horizon pulse signal sensing is accomplished by a variable thresholding method intended to self-adjust for earth radiance variations. The use of sun sensors rather than star trackers for yaw determination calls for estimation rather than measurement of yaw attitude about 50% of mission time. Features of the yaw interpolation algorithm include adaptability and automatic incorporation of time-varying confidence levels of various data sources. The performance accuracy of the AD system was assessed, where it is found that the most important error source is the variation in earth atmospheric radiance. Analysis of science instrument sensitivity to AD uncertainties was performed, and the most sensitive instrument, the scatterometer system, shows only gradual degradation of performance in the vicinity of the AD accuracy requirement.

Ohtakay, H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Estimation of spectral reflectance signatures from spectral radiance profiles

This paper presents a technique for converting spectral radiance to the more fundamental quantity of interest, spectral reflectance. A full implementation of the technique requires the availability of radiative transfer software. However, a set of tables (which allows an approximate derivation of reflectance) is included herein, and covers a representative range of environmental parameter values. An error analysis is performed which gives, for an uncertainty in each of the input parameters (solar zenith angle, visibility, sensor altitude, off-nadir viewing angle, background reflectance and surface elevation), the resulting error in derived reflectance. As a demonstration of the technique, several sets of spectral radiance data from the Imperial Valley, California, are presented as spectral reflectances.

Bowker, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Evidence for collisionless conduction fronts in impulsive solar flares

The present paper is concerned with an analysis of new observations of impulsive hard X-ray and microwave bursts. The results are compared with predictions of a thermal flare model. A description is presented of the thermal model with conduction-front confinement, taking into account the development and previous applications of the model, the high-energy limit of confinement and its implications for microwave emission, the formation of a test based on the revised predictions of the model, and derived parameters. The observations and the test of the model are discussed, giving attention to instrumentation, event selection, selection of a homogeneous sample of impulsive rises,. observed and derived parameters for each rise, a correlation analysis of observed and predicted rise times, uncertainties in the measurements, consistency checks, and a comparison with results of Crannell et al. (1978).

Batchelor, D. A.↗