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DOE OSTI2025

The Relative Importance of Forced and Unforced Temperature Patterns in Driving the Time Variation of Low-Cloud Feedback

Abstract Atmospheric models forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest a trend toward a more-stabilizing cloud feedback in recent decades, partly due to the surface cooling trend in the eastern Pacific (EP) and the warming trend in the western Pacific (WP). Here, we show model evidence that the low-cloud feedback has contributions from both forced and unforced feedback components and that its time variation arises in large part through changes in the relative importance of the two over time, rather than through variations in forced or unforced feedbacks themselves. Initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) suggest that the SST patterns are dominated by unforced variations for 30-yr windows ending prior to the 1980s. In general, unforced SSTs are representative of an ENSO-like pattern, which corresponds to weak low-level stability in the tropics and less-stabilizing low-cloud feedback. Since the 1980s, the forced signals have become stronger, outweighing the unforced signals for the 30-yr windows ending after the 2010s. Forced SSTs are characterized by relatively uniform warming with an enhancement in the WP, corresponding to a more-stabilizing low-cloud feedback in most cases. The time-evolving SST pattern due to this increasing importance of forced signals is the dominant contributor to the recent stabilizing shift of low-cloud feedback in the LEs. Using single-forcing LEs, we further find that if only greenhouse gases evolve with time, the transition to the domination of forced signals occurs 10–20 years earlier compared to the LEs with full forcings, which can be understood through the compensating effect between aerosols and greenhouse gases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2022

Antimicrobial resistance of enteric pathogens in the Military Health System, 2009 – 2019

Abstract Background Acute diarrhea (AD) can have significant impacts on military troop readiness. Medical providers must understand current trends of enteropathogen antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in service members (SMs) to inform proper, timely treatment options. However, little is known of enteric pathogen profiles across the Military Health System (MHS). The primary objectives of this study were to identify gaps in enteric pathogen surveillance within the MHS, describe the epidemiology of AMR in enteric pathogens, and identify trends across the MHS both within the Continental United States (CONUS) and outside of the Continental United States (OCONUS). Methods Health Level 7 (HL7)-formatted laboratory data were queried for all specimens where Salmonella , Shigella , and Campylobacter species, as well as Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) (STEC) were isolated and certified between 1 January 2009 - 31 December 2019. Antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) results were queried and summarized where available. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each organism by specimen source, year, and susceptibility testing availability. Results Among a total of 13,852 enteric bacterial isolates, 11,877 (86%) were submitted from CONUS locations. Out of 1479 Shigella spp. and 6755 Salmonella spp. isolates, 1221 (83%) and 5019 (74%), respectively, reported any susceptibility results through the MHS. Overall, only 15% of STEC and 4% of Campylobacter spp. specimens had AST results available. Comparing AST reporting at CONUS versus OCONUS locations, AST was reported for 1175 (83%) and 46 (78%) of Shigella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively, and for 4591 (76%) and 428 (63%) of Salmonella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively. Conclusions This study revealed inconsistent enteropathogen AST conducted across the MHS, with differing trends between CONUS and OCONUS locations. Additional work is needed to assess pathogen-specific gaps in testing and reporting to develop optimal surveillance that supports the health of the force.

Ashbaugh, Hayley↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of methodologies used to determine aromatic lignin unit ratios in lignocellulosic biomass

Abstract Background Multiple analytical methods have been developed to determine the ratios of aromatic lignin units, particularly the syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio, of lignin biopolymers in plant cell walls. Chemical degradation methods such as thioacidolysis produce aromatic lignin units that are released from certain linkages and may induce chemical changes rendering it difficult to distinguish and determine the source of specific aromatic lignin units released, as is the case with nitrobenzene oxidation methodology. NMR methods provide powerful tools used to analyze cell walls for lignin composition and linkage information. Pyrolysis-mass spectrometry methods are also widely used, particularly as high-throughput methodologies. However, the different techniques used to analyze aromatic lignin unit ratios frequently yield different results within and across particular studies, making it difficult to interpret and compare results. This also makes it difficult to obtain meaningful insights relating these measurements to other characteristics of plant cell walls that may impact biomass sustainability and conversion metrics for the production of bio-derived fuels and chemicals. Results The authors compared the S/G lignin unit ratios obtained from thioacidolysis, pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS), HSQC liquid-state NMR and solid-state (ss) NMR methodologies of pine, several genotypes of poplar, and corn stover biomass. An underutilized approach to deconvolute ssNMR spectra was implemented to derive S/G ratios. The S/G ratios obtained for the samples did not agree across the different methods, but trends were similar with the most agreement among the py-MBMS, HSQC NMR and deconvoluted ssNMR methods. The relationship between S/G, thioacidolysis yields, and linkage analysis determined by HSQC is also addressed. Conclusions This work demonstrates that different methods using chemical, thermal, and non-destructive NMR techniques to determine native lignin S/G ratios in plant cell walls may yield different results depending on species and linkage abundances. Spectral deconvolution can be applied to many hardwoods with lignin dominated by S and G units, but the results may not be reliable for some woody and grassy species of more diverse lignin composition. HSQC may be a better method for analyzing lignin in those species given the wealth of information provided on additional aromatic moieties and bond linkages. Additionally, trends or correlations in lignin characteristics such as S/G ratios and lignin linkages within the same species such as poplar may not necessarily exhibit the same trends or correlations made across different biomass types. Careful consideration is required when choosing a method to measure S/G ratios and the benefits and shortcomings of each method discussed here are summarized.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gender in Mineral Names

Minerals are the fundamental constituents of Earth, and mineral names appear in scientific literature for disciplines including geology, chemistry, materials science, biology, and medicine, among others. Choosing a name is the full responsibility of the authors of new mineral proposals submitted to the International Mineralogical Association (IMA). Scientific nomenclature and its traditions have evolved over time and, consequently, mineral names track changes in the landscape of mineralogy with respect to language, technology, and culture. To evaluate these changes, the namesake information for all 5896 minerals approved by the IMA or ‘grandfathered’ into use as of December 2022 was recorded and categorized within a workable database. The compiled information yields diverse insights into the intersection of science and culture and could also be used to project future trends. In this study, we used the name database to investigate gender diversity among mineral eponyms. More than half (c. 54%) of all mineral species are named after people, the identities of whom are largely a reflection of the people that have historically been involved, in one way or another, in the geosciences and in the mining industry. Of the 2738 people with minerals named for them, approximately 6.1% are (interpreted to be) women. Nearly all minerals named for women were named during the last sixty years, although the rate of growth in the year-on-year percentage of women among new mineral namesakes has slowed since about 1985. If current and historical trends hold, our model predicts that women will not comprise more than about 10.35% of newly established mineral namesakes in future years. The representation of women among mineral namesakes also differs starkly among countries. For example, Russians comprise 43.11% of women with minerals named for them, but account for only 15.12% of all eponyms. However, there are additional disparities beyond the proportions of namesakes. For scientists who were alive when a mineral was named for them, women were an average of 3.74 years older than men when evaluated over the same timespan (1954–2022). These results demonstrate that gender-based disparities are imprinted into current mineral nomenclature and indicate that gender parity among new mineral namesakes is impossible without unprecedented changes in the upstream demographics that are most likely to affect naming trends.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Drag Coefficient Analysis of Arbitrary Fragment Geometry with Emphasis on Meshing Sensitivity Studies.

This report characterizes Mach number effects in the hypersonic range from Mach 3 to Mach 7 for an arbitrary, computationally generated fragment. Force and moment coefficients in the x, y, z direction were successfully obtained and resulting trends were compared with theoretical expectations. Three orientations were tested in the form of unit vectors: [1,0,0], [0,1,0], and [0,0,1]; these represent the i, j, k principle axes. The final results ultimately showcased a trend very similar to that shown in previous literature — drag coefficients for a given orientation decreased with increasing Mach number by a very small amount in the hypersonic range. It was therefore concluded that the aerodynamic quantities used to obtain the fragment trajectory at low hypersonic Mach numbers (such as Mach 3) can be used to characterize the aerodynamic qualities at higher hypersonic Mach numbers (Mach 5, 7) with a reasonably small margin. A sensitivity study was also conducted which ultimately defined drag effects as a result of changing grid spacing and normal extrusion parameters for the unstructured tetrahedral mesh used in the simulation. Further work can be done in the form of experimental validation, specifically with regards to wind tunnels and ballistic range testing. Error can be reduced by testing more mesh variabilities and capturing a larger amount of fragment orientations. The results for force and moment characteristics dependent on meshing parameters and high Mach numbers are satisfactory and consistent with expected trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report summarizes installed prices and other trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. This report is now being published on a biannual cycle. In 2020, Berkeley Lab has released a more limited Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update, which consists of the same data otherwise published in Tracking the Sun report. The update includes data on more than 1.9 million systems installed through 2019, covering 82% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through that timeframe.As in prior years, the data update focuses to a large degree on installed prices reported for distributed PV projects, describing both historical trends and variability in pricing across projects.With respect to the historical price trajectory, national median installed prices fell, from 2018 to 2019, by roughly 1% for residential systems, remained essentially flat for small non-residential systems, and fell by 4% for large non-residential systems. Across all three customer segments, these are the slowest annual percentage declines since 2006-2008.Pricing continues to vary widely across individual projects, reflecting, among other things, differences in system sizing and design, installer-level pricing strategies, and local market conditions. For example, among residential systems installed in 2019, the lowest 20% were priced below $3.1/W, while the highest 20% were above $4.5/W. The distributions for non-residential systems exhibit similarly wide spreads.In addition to data on installed prices, the data update also covers a broad range of trends related to distributed PV system design, including: system sizing, module efficiency, module-level power electronics, inverter-loading ratios, solar+storage installations, mounting configuration, panel orientation, third-party ownership, and customer segmentation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release

Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water-Based NSTF

This report summarizes the system-level modeling effort by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) of the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) in FY22. As an extension of the effort from FY21, this year’s work focuses primarily on the two-phase modeling of the NSTF using RELAP5-3D, particularly with the inclusion of the cavity model. The results from simulations were used to compare against experimental data for benchmarking purposes of the RELAP5 deck. Additionally, RELAP5 was used as a predictive tool to guide planned test operations and identify expected system behaviors. In the first part of this report, details are provided of the cavity omitted model where heat flux is applied directly as a boundary condition to the risers. The general trend predicted by the RELAP5 model matches that from the experimental data when a single-phase natural circulation flow is first established, followed by an oscillatory two-phase period and finally a stable two-phase flow. However, the onset of oscillations is predicted early by the model due to the smaller thermal mixing region in the tank. However, by expanding the simulated thermal mixing region in the tank, the onset of oscillations predicted by the model is able to match that from the experiment. These oscillations where studied in depth and are deduced to be flashing-induced instability. The model was then modified to simulate an accident scenario case where a representative heat load based on the full-scale Framatome’s 625 MW t SC-HTGR was applied directly to the riser channels. The simulated initial and boundary conditions were identical to those performed experimentally, facilitating direct comparisons between the predicted and experimental results. It was determined that the results showed some discrepancies remain, likely due to the overprediction of vapor generation rate by the computer model. In the second part of this report, the cavity model is re-introduced where it is observed that the RELAP5 prediction is now able to capture the major trends of the observed flow commonly observed during two-phase conditions. However, the onset of oscillations is once again predicted early by the model, possibly caused by the underprediction of heat loss from the heater and cavity. This is likely due to the omission of support structures in the cavity that can act as additional pathways for heat to escape to the environment. To overcome the underprediction of heat loss, part of the insulation surrounding the cavity side panels and the back of the heaters are removed to allow heat to escape directly to the environment, which then improves the RELAP5 prediction. Parametric studies are also performed to investigate the effects of heater power, tank inventory level, and tank gas space pressure on flow behaviors, also in direct comparison to conditions tested experimentally. User option-61 in the RELAP5-3D input deck, which changes the heat transfer coefficient correlations used for calculating the vapor generation, is also investigated where it is found that by enabling the option, the overall duration of oscillations is increased and matches that from the experiment better. The RELAP5 model is further benchmarked with a header inlet- throttling case where it is observed that the prediction from the model fails to capture some major features observed in the experiment. By using a modified loss coefficient curve for the valve, the accuracy of the prediction is improved where most of the major features observed in the experiment are predicted by the model. Lastly, the model is benchmarked with an inventory depletion scenario where it is observed that despite the modeling limitation of RELAP5, the prediction shows good agreement with the experimental data where major trends and features are captured by the model. Future work will see continued development of the current RELAP5-3D input deck of the NSTF to both improve the accuracy of the model’s predictive capability and continuing serving the experimental program. The mutually beneficial relationship between analysis and experimental efforts has become integral to the parent NSTF program, and the greater objective to fully understand and accurately predict the heat removal performance of a full scale RCCS concept.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling from Flux Towers to Ecosystem Models: Regional Constraints on Carbon Cycle Processes from Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide (Final Report)

DOE supported research suggests that gross primary productivity (GPP) is largely underestimated by global earth system models [Welp et al., 2011], reflecting the persistent challenge in extrapolating from local-scale GPP observations to global-scale earth system models. This poor understanding of GPP at large spatial scales is of particular concern in tropical forests. In tropical forests, some earth systems models forecast a powerful feedback between a warming climate and a decline in GPP resulting in forest dieback. While this simulated feedback is intensely debated, we lack robust large-scale constraints on GPP that are needed to resolve this debate. In particular, carbon dioxide measurements provide valuable information on net carbon flux, but not on the gross flux associated with GPP. Here we conducted a study of regional-to-global scale GPP using atmospheric carbonyl sulfide to provide a new constraint on GPP mechanisms in earth system models. Our project activities integrated modeling, in situ measurement, and remote sensing techniques to resolve GPP for the Amazon as well as global scale trends. The results of this work included initiating airborne carbonyl sulfide monitoring in the Amazon, training for postdocs and graduate students at a Hispanic Serving Institution, fundamental advances in carbonyl sulfide budgets [e.g. Hilton et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017], and high-profile publications that focused on GPP trends for the Amazon [Stinecipher et al., GRL, 2022] and global historical GPP trends [Campbell, et al., Nature, 2017]. Based on the suggestion of our DOE program manager, we published a state-of-the-science commentary to the scientific community on GPP monitoring with COS [Campbell et al., EOS, 2017] which was selected as the cover story. DOE support was acknowledged in all reports. The importance of this research to understanding climate change was communicated to the general public through community seminars (Rotary, Public Libraries, State Parks), an op-ed (SF Chronicle), and interviews in the mass media including two stories in the New York Times (4/5/17; 7/30/18), one of which was especially widely read after it was featured in the New York Time’s Quote of the Day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2022 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2022. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time-period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed include subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) HPCS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year), and (3) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) EPS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS EDG FTLR failure probability, (3) EPS EDG unavailability, and (4) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor Operated Valves 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-operated valves (MOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trend was identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year). The following decreasing trends were identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV FTOC failure probability • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Air Operated Valves 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of air operated valves (AOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The AOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trends were identified for AOVs for the most recent 10 year period: • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year) • High demand AOV frequency of FTOC demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for AOVs for the most recent 10 year period: • Low demand AOV FTOC failure probability • Low demand AOV FTOP failure rate • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year) • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOP events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: Emergency Power System 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) at 93 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system start-only unreliability, but a highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: Auxiliary Feedwater 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar year 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the industry-wide estimates of AFW system start-only unreliability, but a highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the industry-wide estimates of AFW system 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Initiating Event Rates at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 2022 Update

Analyzing initiating event rates is important because it indicates trends and patterns of plant performance and provides inputs to several U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk-informed regulatory activities. This report presents an analysis of initiating event frequencies at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants from calendar year 1988 through 2022, as reported in licensee event reports. Engineers with nuclear power plant experience reviewed each event report since the last update to this report to categorize and characterize reactor trips. To be included in this study, an event had to meet all of the following criteria: (1) the event included an unplanned reactor trip (not a scheduled reactor trip on the daily operations schedule), (2) the sequence of events started when the reactor was critical and at or above the point of adding heat, (3) the event occurred at a U.S. commercial nuclear power plant (excluding Fort St. Vrain and LaCrosse), and (4) the event was reported by a licensee event report. Sixteen initiating event groupings are trended and displayed. For some of the categories, relevant events are plotted separately for boiling-water reactors (BWR) and pressurized-water reactors (PWR). P-values are given for the possible presence of a trend over the most recent 10 years.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗