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DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-BRA-04: Simulation of Errors in Maximal Intensity Projection (MIP)-Based Lung Tumor Internal Target Volumes (ITV) Using Real-Time 2D MRI and Deformable Image Registration Based Lung Tumor Tracking

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of inter- and intra-fractional tumor motion on the error in four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) maximal intensity projection (MIP)–based lung tumor internal target volumes (ITV), using deformable image registration of real-time 2D-sagital cine-mode MRI acquired during lung SBRT treatments. Methods: Five lung tumor patients underwent free breathing SBRT treatment on the ViewRay, with dose prescribed to PTV (4DCT MIP-based ITV+3–6mm margin). Sagittal slice cine-MR images (3.5×3.5mm pixels) were acquired through the center of the tumor at 4 frames per second throughout the treatments (3–4 fractions of 21–32 minutes duration). Tumor GTVs were contoured on the first frame of the cine and tracked throughout the treatment using off-line optical-flow based deformable registration implemented on a GPU cluster. Pseudo-4DCT MIP-based ITVs were generated from MIPs of the deformed GTV contours limited to short segments of image data. All possible pseudo-4DCT MIP-based ITV volumes were generated with 1s resolution and compared to the ITV volume of the entire treatment course. Varying pseudo-4DCT durations from 10-50s were analyzed. Results: Tumors were covered in their entirety by PTV in the patients analysed here. However, pseudo-4DCT based ITV volumes were observed that were as small as 29% of the entire treatment-ITV, depending on breathing irregularity and the duration of pseudo-4DCT. With an increase in duration of pseudo-4DCT from 10–50s the minimum volume acquired from 95% of all pseudo-4DCTs increased from 62%–81% of the treatment ITV. Conclusion: A 4DCT MIP-based ITV offers a ‘snap-shot’ of breathing motion for the brief period of time the tumor is imaged on a specific day. Real time MRI over prolonged periods of time and over multiple treatment fractions shows that the accuracy of this snap-shot varies according to inter- and intra-fractional tumor motion. Further work is required to investigate the dosimetric effect of these results.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2018

Unobtrusive Sensor-Based Occupancy Facing Direction Detection and Tracking Using Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms

Facing direction detection plays a critical role in human-computer interaction and has a wide application in surveillance systems, driving awareness recognition, smart home appliances, computer games, and so on. Current detection methods are mainly focused on extracting specific patterns from user's optical images, which raises concerns on privacy invasion and these detection techniques do not usually work in a dark environment. To address these concerns, here this paper proposes an activity recognition system guided by an unobtrusive sensor (ARGUS). By using a low pixel infrared thermopile array sensor, ARGUS is capable of identifying five facing directions (left 45°/90°, right 45°/90°, and front) through the support vector machine classifier. Also two feature extraction methods are compared. One is manually-defined and the other is based on a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN) model. The facing direction detection accuracy resulting from manually-defined features reaches 85.3%, 90.6%, and 85.2% at detection distance of 0.6, 1.2, and 1.8 m, respectively. The level of accuracy resulted from using pre-trained CNN features demonstrates a much more reliable performance (89.1%, 95.3%, and 95.1% at distance of 0.6, 1.2, and 1.8 m, respectively). In addition, ARGUS has been successfully applied for occupancy tracking with a root mean square error of 0.19 m.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Subnanosecond GPS-based clock synchronization and precision deep-space tracking

Interferometric spacecraft tracking is accomplished by the Deep Space Network (DSN) by comparing the arrival time of electromagnetic spacecraft signals at ground antennas separated by baselines on the order of 8000 km. Clock synchronization errors within and between DSN stations directly impact the attainable tracking accuracy, with a 0.3-nsec error in clock synchronization resulting in an 11-nrad angular position error. This level of synchronization is currently achieved by observing a quasar which is angularly close to the spacecraft just after the spacecraft observations. By determining the differential arrival times of the random quasar signal at the stations, clock offsets and propagation delays within the atmosphere and within the DSN stations are calibrated. Recent developments in time transfer techniques may allow medium accuracy (50-100 nrad) spacecraft tracking without near-simultaneous quasar-based calibrations. Solutions are presented for a worldwide network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers in which the formal errors for DSN clock offset parameters are less than 0.5 nsec. Comparisons of clock rate offsets derived from GPS measurements and from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), as well as the examination of clock closure, suggest that these formal errors are a realistic measure of GPS-based clock offset precision and accuracy. Incorporating GPS-based clock synchronization measurements into a spacecraft differential ranging system would allow tracking without near-simultaneous quasar observations. The impact on individual spacecraft navigation-error sources due to elimination of quasar-based calibrations is presented. System implementation, including calibration of station electronic delays, is discussed.

Dunn, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sub-nanosecond clock synchronization and precision deep space tracking

Interferometric spacecraft tracking is accomplished at the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) by comparing the arrival time of electromagnetic spacecraft signals to ground antennas separated by baselines on the order of 8000 km. Clock synchronization errors within and between DSN stations directly impact the attainable tracking accuracy, with a 0.3 ns error in clock synchronization resulting in an 11 nrad angular position error. This level of synchronization is currently achieved by observing a quasar which is angularly close to the spacecraft just after the spacecraft observations. By determining the differential arrival times of the random quasar signal at the stations, clock synchronization and propagation delays within the atmosphere and within the DSN stations are calibrated. Recent developments in time transfer techniques may allow medium accuracy (50-100 nrad) spacecraft observations without near-simultaneous quasar-based calibrations. Solutions are presented for a global network of GPS receivers in which the formal errors in clock offset parameters are less than 0.5 ns. Comparisons of clock rate offsets derived from GPS measurements and from very long baseline interferometry and the examination of clock closure suggest that these formal errors are a realistic measure of GPS-based clock offset precision and accuracy. Incorporating GPS-based clock synchronization measurements into a spacecraft differential ranging system would allow tracking without near-simultaneous quasar observations. The impact on individual spacecraft navigation error sources due to elimination of quasar-based calibrations is presented. System implementation, including calibration of station electronic delays, is discussed.

Charles Dunn↗

NASA NTRS1990

Effects of height acceleration on Geosat heights

A radar altimeter tracking loop, such as that utilized by Geosat, produces height errors in the presence of persistent height acceleration h(a). The correction factor for the height error is a function of both the loop feedback parameters and the height acceleration. The correction, in meters, to the sea-surface height (SSH) derived from Geosat is -0.16 h(a), where h(a) is in m/sec per sec. The errors induced by accelerations are produced primarily by changes in along-track geoid slopes. The nearly circular Geosat orbit and dynamic ocean topography produce small h(a) values. One area studied in detail encompasses the Marianas Trench and the Challenger Deep in the west central Pacific Ocean. Histograms of SSH corrections due to range accelerations have also been determined from 24-hour segments of Geosat global data. The findings are that 20 percent of the Geosat measurements have acceleration-induced errors of 2 cm or more, while 8 percent have errors of 3 cm or more.

Hancock, David W., III↗

NASA NTRS2012

GMSK Modulation for Deep Space Applications

Due to scarcity of spectrum at 8.42 GHz deep space Xband allocation, many deep space missions are now considering the use of higher order modulation schemes instead of the traditional binary phase shift keying (BPSK). One such scheme is pre-coded Gaussian minimum shift keying (GMSK). GMSK is an excellent candidate for deep space missions. GMSK is a constant envelope, bandwidth efficien modulation whose frame error rate (FER) performance with perfect carrier tracking and proper receiver structure is nearly identical to that of BPSK. There are several issues that need to be addressed with GMSK however. Specificall, we are interested in the combined effects of spectrum limitations and receiver structure on the coded performance of the X-band link using GMSK. The receivers that are typically used for GMSK demodulations are variations on offset quadrature phase shift keying (OQPSK) receivers. In this paper we consider three receivers: the standard DSN OQPSK receiver, DSN OQPSK receiver with filte ed input, and an optimum OQPSK receiver with filte ed input. For the DSN OQPSK receiver we show experimental results with (8920, 1/2), (8920, 1/3) and (8920, 1/6) turbo codes in terms of their error rate performance. We also consider the tracking performance of this receiver as a function of data rate, channel code and the carrier loop signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). For the other two receivers we derive theoretical results that will show that for a given loop bandwidth, a receiver structure, and a channel code, there is a lower data rate limit on the GMSK below which a higher SNR than what is required to achieve the required FER on the link is needed. These limits stem from the minimum loop signal-to-noise ratio requirements on the receivers for achieving lock. As a result of this, for a given channel code and a given FER, there could be a gap between the maximum data rate that BPSK can support without violating the spectrum limits and the minimum data rate that GMSK can support with the required FER depending on the type of GMSK receiver that is used.

Communications↗

NASA NTRS1984

Rain and cloud effects on a satellite dual-frequency radar altimeter system operating at 13.5 and 35 GHz

The influence of clouds and rain on the return waveform signatures from satellite borne radar altimeters operating at 13.5 and 35 GHz are examined. It is specifically demonstrated that spatial nonuniformity in the cloud liquid water content or variations of the rain rate may result in significant distortions of the altimeter signature. The distorted signal is produced as a result of nonuniform attenuation occurring at the different range bins associated with the reflected signal. Determination of the mean sea height by employing tracking algorithms on these distorted echoes may result in gross errors. Although the influence of clouds on the altimeter signature and hence tracking precision is minimal at 13.5 GHz (e.g., less than 4 cm for a 1-s average), it may produce unacceptable mean sea level uncertainties at 35 GHz (e.g., 20 cm for a 1-s average) assuming a significant waveheight of 4 m. On the other hand, the signatures at both 13.5 GHz and 35 GHz become grossly distorted for rain rates of 10 mm/h and higher resulting in mean sea height errors of 46 and 65 cm, respectively, for significant wave heights of 2 m.

Walsh, E. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Design concepts and performance of NASA X-band (7162 MHz/8415 MHz) transponder for deep-space spacecraft applications

The design concepts and measured performance characteristics are summarized of an X band (7162 MHz/8415 MHz) breadboard deep space transponder (DSP) for future spacecraft applications, with the first use scheduled for the Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) and Cassini missions in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The DST consists of a double conversion, superheterodyne, automatic phase tracking receiver, and an X band (8415 MHz) exciter to drive redundant downlink power amplifiers. The receiver acquires and coherently phase tracks the modulated or unmodulated X band (7162 MHz) uplink carrier signal. The exciter phase modulates the X band (8415 MHz) downlink signal with composite telemetry and ranging signals. The receiver measured tracking threshold, automatic gain control, static phase error, and phase jitter characteristics of the breadboard DST are in good agreement with the expected performance. The measured results show a receiver tracking threshold of -158 dBm and a dynamic signal range of 88 dB.

Mysoor, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Design concepts and performance of NASA X-band transponder (DST) for deep space spacecraft applications

The design concepts and measured performance characteristics of an X band (7162 MHz/8415 MHz) breadboard deep space transponder (DST) for future spacecraft applications, with the first use scheduled for the Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) and Cassini missions in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The DST consists of a double conversion, superheterodyne, automatic phase tracking receiver, and an X band (8415 MHz) exciter to drive redundant downlink power amplifiers. The receiver acquires and coherently phase tracks the modulated or unmodulated X band (7162 MHz) uplink carrier signal. The exciter phase modulates the X band (8415 MHz) downlink signal with composite telemetry and ranging signals. The receiver measured tracking threshold, automatic gain control static phase error, and phase jitter characteristics of the breadboard DST are in good agreement with the expected performance. The measured results show a receiver tracking threshold of -158 dBm and a dynamic signal range of 88 dB.

Mysoor, Narayan R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An X-band spacecraft transponder for deep space applications - Design concepts and breadboard performance

The design concepts and measured performance characteristics are summarized of an X band (7162 MHz/8415 MHz) breadboard deep space transponder (DSP) for future spacecraft applications, with the first use scheduled for the Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby (CRAF) and Cassini missions in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The DST consists of a double conversion, superheterodyne, automatic phase tracking receiver, and an X band (8415 MHz) exciter to drive redundant downlink power amplifiers. The receiver acquires and coherently phase tracks the modulated or unmodulated X band (7162 MHz) uplink carrier signal. The exciter phase modulates the band (8415 MHz) downlink signal with composite telemetry and ranging signals. The receiver measured tracking threshold, automatic gain control, static phase error, and phase jitter characteristics of the breadboard DST are in good agreement with the expected performance. The measured results show a receiver tracking threshold of -158 dBm and a dynamic signal range of 88 dB.

Mysoor, Narayan R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Tracking Virtual Trajectories

Current models of smooth pursuit eye movements assume that it is largely driven by retinal image motion. We tested this hypothesis by measuring pursuit of elliptical motion (3.2s, 0.9 Hz, 1.4 deg x 1.6 deg, 4 randomly interleaved phases) of either a small spot ("real" motion) or of a line-figure diamond viewed through apertures such that only the motion of four isolated oblique line segments was visible ("virtual" motion). Each segment moved sinusoidally along a linear trajectory yet subjects perceived a diamond moving along an elliptical path behind the aperture. We found, as expected, that real motion produced accurate tracking (N = 2) with mean gain (over horizontal and vertical) of 0.9, mean phase of -6 deg (lag), mean relative phase (H vs V) of 90 +/- 8 deg (RMS error). Virtual motion behind an X-shaped aperture (N= 4 with one naive) yielded a mean gain of 0.7, mean phase of -11 deg, mean relative phase of 87 +/- 15 deg. We also measured pursuit with the X-shaped aperture using a higher segment luminance which prevents the segments from being grouped into a coherently moving diamond while keeping the motion otherwise identical. In this incoherent case, the same four subjects no longer showed consistent elliptical tracking (RMS error in relative phase rose to 60 deg) suggesting that perceptual coherence is critical. Furthermore, to rule out tracking of the centroid, we also used vertical apertures so that all segment motion was vertical (N = 3). This stimulus still produced elliptical tracking (mean relative phase of 84 +/- 19 deg), albeit with a lower gain (0.6). These data show that humans can track moving objects reasonably accurately even when the trajectory can only be derived by spatial integration of motion signals. Models that merely seek to minimize retinal or local stimulus motion cannot explain these results.

Stone, Leland S.↗

DOE OSTI2017

A fast numerical integrator for relativistic charged particle tracking

In this paper, we report on a fast second-order numerical integrator to solve the Lorentz force equations of a relativistic charged particle in electromagnetic fields. This numerical integrator shows less numerical error than the popular Boris algorithm in tracking the relativistic particle subject to electric and magnetic space-charge fields and requires less number of operations than another recently proposed relativistic integrator.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1989

Effect of ephemeris errors on the accuracy of the computation of the tangent point altitude of a solar scanning ray as measured by the SAGE 1 and 2 instruments

An analysis was made of the error in the minimum altitude of a geometric ray from an orbiting spacecraft to the Sun. The sunrise and sunset errors are highly correlated and are opposite in sign. With the ephemeris generated for the SAGE 1 instrument data reduction, these errors can be as large as 200 to 350 meters (1 sigma) after 7 days of orbit propagation. The bulk of this error results from errors in the position of the orbiting spacecraft rather than errors in computing the position of the Sun. These errors, in turn, result from the discontinuities in the ephemeris tapes resulting from the orbital determination process. Data taken from the end of the definitive ephemeris tape are used to generate the predict data for the time interval covered by the next arc of the orbit determination process. The predicted data are then updated by using the tracking data. The growth of these errors is very nearly linear, with a slight nonlinearity caused by the beta angle. An approximate analytic method is given, which predicts the magnitude of the errors and their growth in time with reasonable fidelity.

Buglia, James J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Gravity mismodelling on TOPEX orbit determination

Gravity mismodeling limits the dynamic orbit determination accuracy of TOPEX which requires an altitude accuracy of about 15 cm or better. This paper provides an assessment of this effect for a dynamic GPS tracking scheme, and investigates a nondynamic GPS tracking technique that eliminates the problem. Analysis indicates that TOPEX altitude error could be affected by as much as 30-40 cm when dynamic differential GPS tracking is used, although efforts now underway to improve the gravity model could reduce this. With the nondynamic technique, the positional change of TOPEX is inferred from the accurate, continuous GPS carrier phase measurements rather than from a dynamic model which is prone to gravity error. TOPEX altitude accuracy better than 15 cm is attainable with nondynamic tracking over a few hours.

Wu, S.-C.↗

DOE OSTI2014

A new method for tracking organ motion on diagnostic ultrasound images

Purpose: Respiratory-gated irradiation is effective in reducing the margins of a target in the case of abdominal organs, such as the liver, that change their position as a result of respiratory motion. However, existing technologies are incapable of directly measuring organ motion in real-time during radiation beam delivery. Hence, the authors proposed a novel quantitative organ motion tracking method involving the use of diagnostic ultrasound images; it is noninvasive and does not entail radiation exposure. In the present study, the authors have prospectively evaluated this proposed method. Methods: The method involved real-time processing of clinical ultrasound imaging data rather than organ monitoring; it comprised a three-dimensional ultrasound device, a respiratory sensing system, and two PCs for data storage and analysis. The study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method by tracking the gallbladder in one subject and a liver vein in another subject. To track a moving target organ, the method involved the control of a region of interest (ROI) that delineated the target. A tracking algorithm was used to control the ROI, and a large number of feature points and an error correction algorithm were used to achieve long-term tracking of the target. Tracking accuracy was assessed in terms of how well the ROI matched the center of the target. Results: The effectiveness of using a large number of feature points and the error correction algorithm in the proposed method was verified by comparing it with two simple tracking methods. The ROI could capture the center of the target for about 5 min in a cross-sectional image with changing position. Indeed, using the proposed method, it was possible to accurately track a target with a center deviation of 1.54 ± 0.9 mm. The computing time for one frame image using our proposed method was 8 ms. It is expected that it would be possible to track any soft-tissue organ or tumor with large deformations and changing cross-sectional position using this method. Conclusions: The proposed method achieved real-time processing and continuous tracking of the target organ for about 5 min. It is expected that our method will enable more accurate radiation treatment than is the case using indirect observational methods, such as the respiratory sensor method, because of direct visualization of the tumor. Results show that this tracking system facilitates safe treatment in clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Satellite radar altimetry over ice. Volume 1: Processing and corrections of Seasat data over Greenland

The data-processing methods and ice data products derived from Seasat radar altimeter measurements over the Greenland ice sheet and surrounding sea ice are documented. The corrections derived and applied to the Seasat radar altimeter data over ice are described in detail, including the editing and retracking algorithm to correct for height errors caused by lags in the automatic range tracking circuit. The methods for radial adjustment of the orbits and estimation of the slope-induced errors are given.

Zwally, H. Jay↗