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NASA NTRS2024

High Reliability at Minimum Cost

This paper investigates the minimum cost of improving the reliability of complex technical systems. The two major methods to improve reliability are redesigning the system for higher reliability or providing redundant components to replace failed elements. The costs of redesign for reliability or adding redundancy are estimated. The most cost-effective combination for high reliability can be identified. The cost of increasing the intrinsic reliability of a system can be modeled as cost proportional to 1/(system failure rate) a , where the exponent “a” measures the difficulty of increasing reliability. The “a” exponent can vary from 0.25 to about 2.5. Operational reliability can also be increased by using redundant systems. The failure rate for N parallel redundant units is (system failure rate) N . The cost of redundancy is N times the system cost. The total redundant system cost is proportional to N/(system failure rate) a . The cost of redundancy increases as N gets larger, but larger N allows a higher system failure rate, which reduces the system design cost. There is a certain N, a certain level of redundancy, that has the minimum cost to achieve the required overall redundant system failure rate. The minimum cost for the redundant system is achieved at the optimum level of redundancy. The N for minimum cost is equal to -a ln (redundant system failure rate). The minimum cost of the N redundant systems is proportional to N * (original system failure rate) a . The optimum redesigned individual system failure rate is proportional to exp (-1/a), so the greater the difficulty, the higher the optimum individual system failure rate. Increasing the intrinsic reliability of a system encounters diminishing returns and at some point it becomes more cost-effective to add redundancy. The difficulty of increasing intrinsic system reliability determines the optimum design for high reliability at minimum cost.

reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Reliability at Minimum Cost

reliability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal-hydraulics capabilities in predicting the post-CHF conditions

Developing research in a time-at-temperature limit for fuel failure requires assessing both the material modeling and the thermal-hydraulic modeling capabilities. Predictions of post-CHF conditions have areas for development leveraging experiments, code coupling, and general model improvement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1985

The calibration of photographic and spectroscopic films: Reciprocity failure and thermal responses of IIaO film at liquid nitrogen temperatures

Reciprocity failure was examined for IIaO spectroscopic film. The results indicate reciprocity failure occurs at three distinct minimum points in time; 15 min, 30 min and 90 min. The results are unique because theory suggests only one minimum reciprocity failure point should occur. When incubating 70mm IIaO film for 15 and 30 min at temperatures of 30, 40, 50, and 60 C and then placing in a liquid nitrogen bath at a temperature of -190 C the film demonstrated an increase of the optical density when developed at a warm-up time of 30 min. Longer warm-up periods of 1, 2 and 3 hrs yield a decrease in optical density of the darker wedge patterns; whereas, shorter warm-up times yield an overall increase in the optical densities.

Hammond, E. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Transient Reliability Analysis Capability Developed for CARES/Life

The CARES/Life software developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center provides a general-purpose design tool that predicts the probability of the failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. This award-winning software has been widely used by U.S. industry to establish the reliability and life of a brittle material (e.g., ceramic, intermetallic, and graphite) structures in a wide variety of 21st century applications.Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code can compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth failure conditions CARES/Life can handle sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, whereas in cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant-amplitude loads can be accounted for. However, in real applications applied loads are rarely that simple but vary with time in more complex ways such as engine startup, shutdown, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. A methodology has now been developed to allow the CARES/Life computer code to perform reliability analysis of ceramic components undergoing transient thermal and mechanical loading. This means that CARES/Life will be able to analyze finite element models of ceramic components that simulate dynamic engine operating conditions. The methodology developed is generalized to account for material property variation (on strength distribution and fatigue) as a function of temperature. This allows CARES/Life to analyze components undergoing rapid temperature change in other words, components undergoing thermal shock. In addition, the capability has been developed to perform reliability analysis for components that undergo proof testing involving transient loads. This methodology was developed for environmentally assisted crack growth (crack growth as a function of time and loading), but it will be extended to account for cyclic fatigue (crack growth as a function of load cycles) as well.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.

Vitali, Roberto↗

DOE OSTI2023

Survey of Aging and Monitoring Concerns for Cables and Splices Due to Cable Repair and Replacement

The purpose of this report is to survey aging and monitoring concerns for electrical cable splices in nuclear power plants (NPPs) in long term operation. As portions of existing electrical cable runs in nuclear are replaced over time due to localized events, the total number of splices in NPPs is expected to increase. Relative to cables, the body of knowledge regarding aging of splices and splices in combination with aging cables in nuclear service environments in long-term operations is low. A few reports have considered the aging of cable system components other than cables (Jacobus 1990; Nelson 1998; Villaran and Lofaro 2002), but the nuclear industry has two decades of operating experience since these were published to further enlighten this issue. Herein we discuss electrical cables and splices commonly found in U.S. nuclear power plants, their qualification in safety-related application, and methods for monitoring their health condition. Common environmental stresses that can give rise to cable and splice failure are discussed. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Licensee Event Reports (LER) database was used to identify documented issues of cable and splice failure. The trend in the resultant data over time is considered to see if failures are increasing as plants age. Observations and conclusions of this work include: 1. Cables and splices are highly reliable components. Occurrence rates for events of interest were low and nearly constant over the last 20 years. 2. Common-cause failure for evaluated cable events of interest was observed to primarily be associated with loose connections, which may manifest associated with workmanship issues, thermal cycling, and/or vibration. 3. Replacement of cables is more common than repair, leading to an increase in proportion of new generation cables in the plant over time. 4. Splices on degraded cables have been observed to be problematic. Due to aging NPP infrastructure, including electrical cables, it is expected that such issues will continue to increase. 5. Condition monitoring approaches, while shown to be fruitful for cables, have been shown to be insensitive to degradation of splice sleeves, which are critical to the continued performance of splices. Additional condition monitoring (CM) work is needed to evaluate methods which are sensitive to the degradation of splice components. 6. Extended Material Degradation Assessment (EMDA) knowledge gaps for electrical cables (Bernstein et al. 2014) have not been investigated for splices but may represent similar concerns such as for the accelerated aging process historically used in environmental qualification.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Online Monitoring of Medium Voltage Cable Systems with Spread Spectrum Time Domain and Frequency Domain Reflectometry

In-service failures of wave energy convertor (WEC) cable systems can have a significant cost and power availability impact. Close parallel research 2019 data showed > 1B£ and 9 Terra-Watt-Hours associated with global off-shore wind (OSW) cable failures (Strang-Moran 2020). OSW is a closely related technology but currently is significantly cheaper than WEC technology. For wave energy to compete, the problem of reliable cable transmission must be mitigated. This project develops isolation technology to allow online high frequency reflectometry testing of medium voltage cables (1 to 10 kV and higher) without arcing or damage to the test instrument. Online spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) testing has been established for low voltage cable systems in the aircraft and rail industry and the ability to detect and locate cable flaws of interest is well understood. Extending reflectometry testing to medium voltage systems could enable detection of cable damage before failures occur thereby allowing repair and replacement of damaged cable segments to be scheduled and managed. The seedling project succeeded to pass and receive high frequency SSTDR signals onto a cable up to 1 kV using a parallel trace isolation circuit board that can be connected onto the test cable. The approach used a novel circuit design for which an invention disclosure has been filed. A proposed sapling project would extend the technology toward the higher operating voltages used by WEC systems, thereby enabling online SSTDR cable monitoring. The goal of the seedling project was to extend the capability of the ARENA cable/motor test bed to address medium voltages and to develop a high pass filter isolation architecture to protect the reflectometry instrument from the low frequency (DC – 60 Hz) line voltage while allowing the high frequency diagnostic signal to pass to and from the test instrument to the live line. Initial efforts focused on passive LCR filter circuits to reduce 60 Hz levels below 10 volts from a 10 kV line while allowing the MHz high frequency chirps to pass onto the cables and for mV signals to be detected. We discovered that the parasitic loss behavior of real high voltage components precluded this approach from working. An alternate approach was adapted for the electric field to couple between two parallel traces on a printed circuit board much like a radio-frequency coupler. The challenge here was and is to have the parallel traces close enough to each other to effectively pass the high frequency chirp onto the live line and receive any reflected signal from any encountered impedance change along the cable. This reflected signal will be in the mV range. The traces however must be far enough apart to not allow arcing on the board. A design with 3 mm spacing was determined to allow the high frequency signal to pass onto the live line and receive the mV signal back into the instrument while reducing the 60 Hz voltage amplitude by >80 dB (more than a factor of 10,000) without allowing arcing from across the parallel traces. This was confirmed by simulation and test.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Full-field quantitative visualization of shock-driven pore collapse and failure modes in PMMA

The dynamic collapse of pores under shock loading is thought to be directly related to hot spot generation and material failure, which is critical to the performance of porous energetic and structural materials. However, the shock compression response of porous materials at the local, individual pore scale is not well understood. This study examines, quantitatively, the collapse phenomenon of a single spherical void in PMMA at shock stresses ranging from 0.4 to 1.0 GPa. Using a newly developed internal digital image correlation technique in conjunction with plate impact experiments, full-field quantitative deformation measurements are conducted in the material surrounding the collapsing pore for the first time. The experimental results reveal two failure mode transitions as shock stress is increased: (i) the first in situ evidence of shear localization via adiabatic shear banding and (ii) dynamic fracture initiation at the pore surface. Numerical simulations using thermo-viscoplastic dynamic finite element analysis provide insights into the formation of adiabatic shear bands (ASBs) and stresses at which failure mode transitions occur. Further numerical and theoretical modeling indicates the dynamic fracture to occur along the weakened material inside an adiabatic shear band. Finally, analysis of the evolution of pore asymmetry and models for ASB spacing elucidate the mechanisms for the shear band initiation sites, and elastostatic theory explains the experimentally observed ASB and fracture paths based on the directions of maximum shear.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Challenges and opportunities for the mechanical reliability of metal halide perovskites and photovoltaics

The unproven reliability of perovskite photovoltaics (PVs) is likely to pose an important technical hurdle in the path towards the widespread deployment of the technology. The overall reliability of perovskite PVs is directly afected by the mechanical reliability of the metal halide perovskite material, cells and modules, but this issue has been largely overlooked. Here we stress the importance of addressing the mechanical reliability issue comprehensively. We highlight the important challenges and opportunities, together with best practices, pertaining to the three key interrelated elements that determine the mechanical reliability of perovskite PVs: driving stresses, mechanical properties and mechanical failure. Here, we discuss how to measure the driving stresses and mechanical properties accurately, together with their evolution over time, and the need to understand the relevant failure mechanisms and coupled efects. This efort will inform scientifc approaches to making perovskite PVs more reliable and durable and help them reach their full potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2007

Development and Application of a Portable Health Algorithms Test System

This paper describes the development and initial demonstration of a Portable Health Algorithms Test (PHALT) System that is being developed by researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The PHALT System was conceived as a means of evolving the maturity and credibility of algorithms developed to assess the health of aerospace systems. Comprising an integrated hardware-software environment, the PHALT System allows systems health management algorithms to be developed in a graphical programming environment; to be tested and refined using system simulation or test data playback; and finally, to be evaluated in a real-time hardware-in-the-loop mode with a live test article. In this paper, PHALT System development is described through the presentation of a functional architecture, followed by the selection and integration of hardware and software. Also described is an initial real-time hardware-in-the-loop demonstration that used sensor data qualification algorithms to diagnose and isolate simulated sensor failures in a prototype Power Distribution Unit test-bed. Success of the initial demonstration is highlighted by the correct detection of all sensor failures and the absence of any real-time constraint violations.

Melcher, Kevin J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Demisability of GFRP and CFRP Components of Reentering Orbital Debris: Phase I Test Results

Observations of surviving reentry debris on the ground and research performed by Hyperschall Technologie Göttingen (HTG) [1] indicated that significantly more glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) components survive reentry than current models predict. NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office conducted a series of tests to evaluate the accuracy of material demise models for reentering orbital debris used in NASA’s Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) and Debris Assessment Software (DAS). Testing is planned in a multi-phase series to allow for quick quantification of results as well as refinement of methods resulting from lessons learned during early phases. The Phase 1 tests discussed here validated ORSAT models for homogeneous metals, provided an efficient quantification of composite material demisability properties like mass loss rate and overall time to demise, and identified potential failure modes, which are currently not well understood. Phase 2 tests will be used to further understand mass loss rates and modes of both thermal and mechanical failure in composite materials. The authors exposed 95 samples of aluminum, CFRP, Kevlar fiber-reinforced polymer, GFRP, and sheets of G10 fiberglass to conditions approximating the reentry environment using an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) torch facility. The cylindrical CFRP samples were exposed to the atmospheric pressure plasma, at both the end and the midpoint, to investigate the difference in demisability between parts with exposed edges, like panels, and parts with no edges, such as carbonoverwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs). In a non-oxidative environment, no composite materials demised within the 5-minute test time. In the oxidative, elevated heat flux environment, CFRP samples demised between 210 s and 270 s. For the first 100 s of insertion time, most of the mass loss was due to pyrolysis of resin, creating an approximately bi-linear mass-loss rate curve with time. In a non-oxidative environment, carbon filaments were observed to unravel from some of the CFRP end-burned samples; however, this effect did not seem to affect the overall time to demise for the samples significantly. These results indicate that both GFRP and CFRP components survive reentry with significantly more remaining mass than current models predict.

Greene, Benton R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Designing and Implementing a Distributed System Architecture for the Mars Rover Mission Planning Software (Maestro)

Distributed systems allow scientists from around the world to plan missions concurrently, while being updated on the revisions of their colleagues in real time. However, permitting multiple clients to simultaneously modify a single data repository can quickly lead to data corruption or inconsistent states between users. Since our message broker, the Java Message Service, does not ensure that messages will be received in the order they were published, we must implement our own numbering scheme to guarantee that changes to mission plans are performed in the correct sequence. Furthermore, distributed architectures must ensure that as new users connect to the system, they synchronize with the database without missing any messages or falling into an inconsistent state. Robust systems must also guarantee that all clients will remain synchronized with the database even in the case of multiple client failure, which can occur at any time due to lost network connections or a user's own system instability. The final design for the distributed system behind the Mars rover mission planning software fulfills all of these requirements and upon completion will be deployed to MER at the end of 2005 as well as Phoenix (2007) and MSL (2009).

Goldgof, Gregory M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

First-of-a-Kind Risk-Informed Digital Twin for Operational Decision Making

A digital twin (DT) is a digital model or a collection of models of a physical entity. DTs in the nuclear arena can be used from plant design through decommissioning. Decisions are typically a priori or made offline. Risk-informed decision making is identifying what can go wrong, its frequency, and the consequences of its failure. Ideally risk-informed decision making reflects the current state of the plant and provides a decision in real time. Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) evaluate the failures of safety systems, the risk of core damage, and the offsite dose as the consequence. However, this DT evaluates the decisions on the control side rather than the protection side. It uses the same risk methods to probabilistically inform the decision-making process but in a different way. Rather than evaluating the risk of core damage, this DT evaluates the likelihood of avoiding a trip set point while maintaining plant safety. Performance-based assessments are identified via its probabilistic evaluation of operational alternatives based on system status. Because the purpose of the control system is to maintain system variables within prescribed operating ranges, upsets or challenges that can exceed a trip set point resulting in a plant transient and a challenge to plant mitigating systems based on actual plant conditions, are evaluated to safely maintain the plant within the operating ranges. The probabilistic portion of the model is autonomously and automatically adjusted, and the metric of interest (i.e. likelihood of avoiding a trip set point) is recalculated. The digital representation of the physical system (i.e. the DT) performs a deterministic performance–based assessment of the probabilistically identified alternatives identified to validate the probabilistic assessment. A decision-making algorithm selects the appropriate option based on the probabilistic and deterministic assessments and transmits a control signal to a component(s) to initiate a corrective action or informs an operator of its decision.

digital twin↗

NASA NTRS2005

Intelligent Vehicle Health Management

As a part of the overall goal of developing Integrated Vehicle Health Management systems for aerospace vehicles, the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program (NFFP) at Marshall Space Flight Center has performed a pilot study on IVHM principals which integrates researched IVHM technologies in support of Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Management (IIVM). IVHM is the process of assessing, preserving, and restoring system functionality across flight and ground systems (NASA NGLT 2004). The framework presented in this paper integrates advanced computational techniques with sensor and communication technologies for spacecraft that can generate responses through detection, diagnosis, reasoning, and adapt to system faults in support of INM. These real-time responses allow the IIVM to modify the affected vehicle subsystem(s) prior to a catastrophic event. Furthermore, the objective of this pilot program is to develop and integrate technologies which can provide a continuous, intelligent, and adaptive health state of a vehicle and use this information to improve safety and reduce costs of operations. Recent investments in avionics, health management, and controls have been directed towards IIVM. As this concept has matured, it has become clear the INM requires the same sensors and processing capabilities as the real-time avionics functions to support diagnosis of subsystem problems. New sensors have been proposed, in addition, to augment the avionics sensors to support better system monitoring and diagnostics. As the designs have been considered, a synergy has been realized where the real-time avionics can utilize sensors proposed for diagnostics and prognostics to make better real-time decisions in response to detected failures. IIVM provides for a single system allowing modularity of functions and hardware across the vehicle. The framework that supports IIVM consists of 11 major on-board functions necessary to fully manage a space vehicle maintaining crew safety and mission objectives: Guidance and Navigation; Communications and Tracking; Vehicle Monitoring; Information Transport and Integration; Vehicle Diagnostics; Vehicle Prognostics; Vehicle mission Planning; Automated Repair and Replacement; Vehicle Control; Human Computer Interface; and Onboard Verification and Validation. Furthermore, the presented framework provides complete vehicle management which not only allows for increased crew safety and mission success through new intelligence capabilities, but also yields a mechanism for more efficient vehicle operations. The representative IVHM technologies for computer platform using heterogeneous communication, 3) coupled electromagnetic oscillators for enhanced communications, 4) Linux-based real-time systems, 5) genetic algorithms, 6) Bayesian Networks, 7) evolutionary algorithms, 8) dynamic systems control modeling, and 9) advanced sensing capabilities. This paper presents IVHM technologies developed under NASA's NFFP pilot project and the integration of these technologies forms the framework for IIVM.

Paris, Deidre E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Observation of the initiation and progression of damage in compressively loaded composite plates containing a cutout

A series of experiments was carried out to determine the mechanism of failure in compressively loaded laminated plates with a circular cutout. Real time holographic interferometry and photomicrography are used to observe the progression of failure. These observations together with post experiment plate sectioning and deplying for interior damage observation provide useful information for modelling the failure process. It is revealed that the failure is initiated as a localised instability in the zero layers, at the hole surface. With increasing load extensive delamination cracking is observed. The progression of failure is by growth of these delaminations induced by delamination buckling. Upon reaching a critical state, catastrophic failure of the plate is observed. The levels of applied load and the rate at which these events occur depend on the plate stacking sequence.

Waas, A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

Microelectronics Reliability↗

NASA NTRS1991

Knowledge-Based Flight-Status Monitor

Conceptual digital computing system intended to monitor and interpret telemetered data on health and status of complicated avionic system in advanced experimental aircraft. Monitor programmed with expert-system software to interpret data in real time. Software includes rule-based model of failure-management system of aircraft that processes fault-indicating signals from avionic system to give timely advice to human operators in mission-control room on ground.

Duke, E. L.↗