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NASA NTRS2005

Atmospheric Models for Aeroentry and Aeroassist

Eight destinations in the Solar System have sufficient atmosphere for aeroentry, aeroassist, or aerobraking/aerocapture: Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, plus Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune have been developed for use in NASA's systems analysis studies of aerocapture applications. Development has begun on a similar atmospheric model for Venus. An important capability of these models is simulation of quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design. Characteristics of these atmospheric models are compared, and example applications for aerocapture are presented. Recent Titan atmospheric model updates are discussed, in anticipation of applications for trajectory and atmospheric reconstruct of Huygens Probe entry at Titan. Recent and planned updates to the Mars atmospheric model, in support of future Mars aerocapture systems analysis studies, are also presented.

Justus, C. G.↗

NASA NTRS2019

European Service Module - Structural Test Article (E-STA) Building Block Test Approach and Model Correlation Observations

The Orion European Service Module - Structural Test Article (E-STA) underwent sine vibration testing in 2016 using the Mechanical Vibration Facility (MVF) multi-axis shaker system at NASA Glenn Research Center’s (GRC) Plum Brook Station (PBS) Space Power Facility (SPF). The main objective was to verify the structural integrity of the European Service Module (ESM) under sine sweep dynamic qualification vibration testing. A secondary objective was to perform a fixed-base modal survey, while E-STA was still mounted to MVF, in order to achieve a test correlate the finite element model (FEM). To facilitate the E-STA system level correlation effort, a building block test approach was implemented. Modal tests were performed on two major subassemblies, the crew module/launch abort structure (CM/LAS) and the crew module adapter (CMA) mass simulators. These subassembly FEMs were individually correlated and then integrated into the E-STA FEM prior to the start of the E-STA sine vibration test. This paper summarizes the modal testing and model correlation efforts of both of these subassemblies and how the building block approach assisted in the overall correlation of the E-STA FEM. This paper will also cover modeling practices that should be avoided, recommended instrumentation positioning on complex structures, and the importance of the FEM geometrically matching CAD in sufficient detail in order to adequately replicate internal load paths. The goal of this paper is to inform the reader of the hard earned lessons learned and pitfalls to avoid when applying a building block test approach.

Winkel, James P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Measurement and analysis of operating system fault tolerance

This paper demonstrates a methodology to model and evaluate the fault tolerance characteristics of operational software. The methodology is illustrated through case studies on three different operating systems: the Tandem GUARDIAN fault-tolerant system, the VAX/VMS distributed system, and the IBM/MVS system. Measurements are made on these systems for substantial periods to collect software error and recovery data. In addition to investigating basic dependability characteristics such as major software problems and error distributions, we develop two levels of models to describe error and recovery processes inside an operating system and on multiple instances of an operating system running in a distributed environment. Based on the models, reward analysis is conducted to evaluate the loss of service due to software errors and the effect of the fault-tolerance techniques implemented in the systems. Software error correlation in multicomputer systems is also investigated.

Lee, I.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Giant Dipole Moments: Remarkable Effects Mono‐, Di‐, and Tri‐ Hydrated 5,6‐Diaminobenzene‐1,2,3,4‐Tetracarbonnitrile

The molecule 5,6-diaminobenzene-1,2,3,4-tetracarbonnitrile (MOI) was first synthesized by Müllen and coworkers in 2016 and boasts an ultrastrong dipole moment of $14.1\pm 0.7$ Debye in THF. Gas phase DFT computations do not fully reflect this ultrastrong dipole moment, demonstrating the role of solvent in increasing this dipole moment. Here, we investigate the effect of solvent molecule position on the dipole moment of this species, computationally examining systems with giant dipole moments. These systems are optimized in the gas phase with the B3LYP functional, employing the aug-cc-pVTZ and def2-TZVP basis sets, as well as the B3LYP-D3BJ/aug-cc-pVTZ functional in Orca. Single point DLPNO-CCSD/aug-cc-pVDZ results were obtained from Orca and Psi4, as well as DLPNO-CCSD(T)/CBS information from Psi4. Additionally, these are compared to the dipole moments of di- and tri-hydrated systems, and the SMD models for THF and water at the B3LYP/aug-cc-pVTZ level of theory. The dissociation energies, HOMO-LUMO energy gaps, and dipole moments are presented. These metrics show the nh1nh1′ THF system boasts the largest dissociation energy and dipole moment of the singly solvated systems, due to its strong hydrogen bonding. The importance of solvent placement is highlighted and may guide the synthesis of macromolecules or organic frameworks incorporating the MOI or MOI-like subunits. Remarkably, a single solvent molecule provides a good model for the difference between the gas phase and solvated species. The predicted gas phase dipole moments computed with B3LYP/aug-cc-pVTZ for the MOI, its monohydrated complex, dihydrated complex, and its trihydrated complex are 9.6, 14.2, 16.0, and 16.8 Debye, respectively.

dipole↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal hydraulic analysis of the AFIP-7 irradiation test in the Advanced test Reactor – Model correlation and performance evaluation

We report as a system level code, RELAP5 is widely used in the nuclear field for the reactor hydraulic analysis. In the component/experimental level, it is frequently employed as well. This paper demonstrates that the RELAP5 flow simulation of the AFIP-7 irradiation experiment which has a complicated 3D geometry/flow path deviates by ~28% from the flow evaluation through a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, which has been validated against a flow test performed at Oregon State University. Thermal safety compliance analysis of an experiment planned to be irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor is usually performed using the finite element analysis code, Abaqus. This research reveals the disadvantages of the Abaqus simulation in the flow instability and departure from nucleate boiling evaluations via a conjugate heat transfer analysis of the AFIP-7 irradiation experiment. As a result, a detailed CFD simulation is suggested for irradiation experiments with complicated flow paths, rather than a simplified RELAP5 simulation or hand calculations. The validated simulation approach will be integrated with the Boehmite correlations to investigate the oxide growth prediction on the fuel cladding in Part II of this research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

A development of logistics management models for the Space Transportation System

A new analytic queueing approach was described which relates stockage levels, repair level decisions, and the project network schedule of prelaunch operations directly to the probability distribution of the space transportation system launch delay. Finite source population and limited repair capability were additional factors included in this logistics management model developed specifically for STS maintenance requirements. Data presently available to support logistics decisions were based on a comparability study of heavy aircraft components. A two-phase program is recommended by which NASA would implement an integrated data collection system, assemble logistics data from previous STS flights, revise extant logistics planning and resource requirement parameters using Bayes-Lin techniques, and adjust for uncertainty surrounding logistics systems performance parameters. The implementation of these recommendations can be expected to deliver more cost-effective logistics support.

Carrillo, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

1992 NASA Life Support Systems Analysis workshop

The 1992 Life Support Systems Analysis Workshop was sponsored by NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) to integrate the inputs from, disseminate information to, and foster communication among NASA, industry, and academic specialists. The workshop continued discussion and definition of key issues identified in the 1991 workshop, including: (1) modeling and experimental validation; (2) definition of systems analysis evaluation criteria; (3) integration of modeling at multiple levels; and (4) assessment of process control modeling approaches. Through both the 1991 and 1992 workshops, NASA has continued to seek input from industry and university chemical process modeling and analysis experts, and to introduce and apply new systems analysis approaches to life support systems. The workshop included technical presentations, discussions, and interactive planning, with sufficient time allocated for discussion of both technology status and technology development recommendations. Key personnel currently involved with life support technology developments from NASA, industry, and academia provided input to the status and priorities of current and future systems analysis methods and requirements.

Evanich, Peggy L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

High Level Architecture Distributed Space System Simulation for Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization Simulation Smackdown

Modeling and Simulation plays a very important role in mission design. It not only reduces design cost, but also prepares astronauts for their mission tasks. The SISO Smackdown is a simulation event that facilitates modeling and simulation in academia. The scenario of this year s Smackdown was to simulate a lunar base supply mission. The mission objective was to transfer Earth supply cargo to a lunar base supply depot and retrieve He-3 to take back to Earth. Federates for this scenario include the environment federate, Earth-Moon transfer vehicle, lunar shuttle, lunar rover, supply depot, mobile ISRU plant, exploratory hopper, and communication satellite. These federates were built by teams from all around the world, including teams from MIT, JSC, University of Alabama in Huntsville, University of Bordeaux from France, and University of Genoa from Italy. This paper focuses on the lunar shuttle federate, which was programmed by the USRP intern team from NASA JSC. The shuttle was responsible for provide transportation between lunar orbit and the lunar surface. The lunar shuttle federate was built using the NASA standard simulation package called Trick, and it was extended with HLA functions using TrickHLA. HLA functions of the lunar shuttle federate include sending and receiving interaction, publishing and subscribing attributes, and packing and unpacking fixed record data. The dynamics model of the lunar shuttle was modeled with three degrees of freedom, and the state propagation was obeying the law of two body dynamics. The descending trajectory of the lunar shuttle was designed by first defining a unique descending orbit in 2D space, and then defining a unique orbit in 3D space with the assumption of a non-rotating moon. Finally this assumption was taken away to define the initial position of the lunar shuttle so that it will start descending a second after it joins the execution. VPN software from SonicWall was used to connect federates with RTI during testing and the Smackdown event. HLA software from Pitch Technology and MAK Technology were used to edit and extend FOM and provide HLA services for federation execution. The SISO Smackdown event for 2011 was held in Boston, Massachusetts. The federation execution lasted for one hour, and the event was very successful in catching the attention of university students and faculties.

Li, Zuqun↗

NASA NTRS2014

MARGInS: Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

Under NASAs Constellation effort, the Exploration Technology Development Program funded research toward a system validation capability that applied machine learning and test-case generation techniques to the analysis of black-box system behavior. The behavior analysis capability scaled to spaces of hundreds of input parameters and tens of thousands of test cases. Aerospace systems at the vehicle level, especially those systems which contain some level of autonomy, are best described by hybrid and non-linear mathematics. Even simplified models of such systems need parameter dimensionalities in the hundreds or thousands of parameters in order to capture sufficient fidelity. The System Safety Assessments (such as those described in the SAE ARP 4761A Safety Assessment Process guidelines) for these systems are prone to errorinteractions between the vehicles subsystems are complex, and can display emergent behaviors. NASA captured this new analysis in the Model-based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems (MARGInS) tool and applied it to the Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) simulation as part of the independent validation and verification cycle before the PA-1 flight test in May of 2010. MARGInS evaluated the adherence of the high-fidelity simulation to its requirements, and deter- mined the margins to failure from the expected nominal input conditions. Following the PA-1 test, the capabilities within the MARGInS framework have been extended with sophisticated statistical and white-box test case generation techniques and applied to other NASA missions. The frame- work now includes a critical factors analysis that was applied to NASAs Orion simulation and design. NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) leveraged the existing MARGInS framework for work on aviation safety for civil transport vehicles and for research on autonomy issues. The NASA ARMD effort created a time series output prediction capability that has been used to characterize trajectories for a plane with an adaptive control system, and a safety boundary detection capability that has been applied to an air traffic control concept of operation for the Federal Aviation Administration. The statistical and machine- learning based techniques within MARGInS have been successfully combined with concolic execution to improve the coverage of a critical unit by driving system-level inputs. The use case driving the concolic execution and MARGInS integration was inspired by the Air France 447 disaster in which the loss of a critical functionality (the airspeed calculation from the pitot tubes) led to loss of the entire plane with the people aboard. To illustrate capabilities and limitations, we will highlight the analyses for the applications listed above. We will then discuss the future plans for MARGInS and its interfaces with other tools.

Validation↗

NASA NTRS2010

Electrochromic Radiator Coupon Level Testing and Full Scale Thermal Math Modeling for Use on Altair Lunar Lander

In order to control system and component temperatures, many spacecraft thermal control systems use a radiator coupled with a pumped fluid loop to reject waste heat from the vehicle. Since heat loads and radiation environments can vary considerably according to mission phase, the thermal control system must be able to vary the heat rejection. The ability to "turn down" the heat rejected from the thermal control system is critically important when designing the system. Electrochromic technology as a radiator coating is being investigated to vary the amount of heat rejected by a radiator. Coupon level tests were performed to test the feasibility of this technology. Furthermore, thermal math models were developed to better understand the turndown ratios required by full scale radiator architectures to handle the various operation scenarios encountered during a mission profile for the Altair Lunar Lander. This paper summarizes results from coupon level tests as well as the thermal math models developed to investigate how electrochromics can be used to increase turn down ratios for a radiator. Data from the various design concepts of radiators and their architectures are outlined. Recommendations are made on which electrochromic radiator concept should be carried further for future thermal vacuum testing.

Bannon, Erika T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Refueling infrastructure planning in intercity networks considering route choice and travel time delay for mixed fleet of electric and conventional vehicles

The range anxiety has been a major factor that affects the market acceptance of electric vehicles. Even with the recent development of battery technologies, a lack of charging stations and range anxiety are still significant concerns, specifically for intercity trips. This calls for more investments in building charging stations and advancing battery technologies to increase the market share of electric vehicles and improve sustainability. This study suggests a configuration for plug-in electric vehicle charging infrastructure to support long-distance intercity trips of electric vehicles at the network level. A model is proposed to minimize the total system cost including infrastructure investment (building charging stations/spots) and travel time delays (charging time, waiting time in the queue, and detour time to access charging stations). This study fills existing gaps in the literature by capturing realistic patterns of travel demand and considering flow-dependent charging delays at charging stations. Furthermore, the proposed model, which is formulated as a mixed-integer program with nonlinear constraints, solves the optimization problem at the network level. At the network level, impacts of charging station locations on the traffic assignment problem with a mixed fleet of electric and conventional vehicles need to be considered. To this end, a traffic assignment module is integrated with a simulated annealing algorithm. The numerical experiments show a satisfactory application of the model for a full-scale case study (intercity network in Michigan). The solution quality and efficiency of the proposed solution algorithm are evaluated against those of an enumeration approach for a small case study. The results suggest that even for the current market share and charging stations’ setting, a significant investment is needed to support intercity trips without range anxiety issues and with acceptable delays. Additionally, through sensitivity analyses, the required infrastructure and battery investments to support intercity trips with acceptable delays are established for hypothetical increased market shares and battery size in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1999

A "Kanes's Dynamics" Model for the Active Rack Isolation System

Many microgravity space-science experiments require vibratory acceleration levels unachievable without active isolation. The Boeing Corporation's Active Rack Isolation System (ARIS) employs a novel combination of magnetic actuation and mechanical linkages, to address these isolation requirements on the International Space Station (ISS). ARIS provides isolation at the rack (international Standard Payload Rack, or ISPR) level. Effective model-based vibration isolation requires (1) an appropriate isolation device, (2) an adequate dynamic (i.e., mathematical) model of that isolator, and (3) a suitable, corresponding controller. ARIS provides the ISS response to the first requirement. This paper presents one response to the second, in a state-space framework intended to facilitate an optimal-controls approach to the third. The authors use "Kane's Dynamics" to develop an state-space, analytical (algebraic) set of linearized equations of motion for ARIS.

Hampton, R. David↗

DOE OSTI2020

A closer look at turbulence spreading: How bistability admits intermittent, propagating turbulence fronts

In magnetic fusion plasmas, mounting evidence indicates the possibility of sustained turbulence below the linear stability threshold or more generally global turbulence bistability. The usual reduced models for turbulence spreading are unistable/supercritical and incompatible with this result. The older models further cannot realistically support fronts connecting laminar and turbulent domains. In this work, a minimal model for “subcritical” turbulence spreading is introduced and analyzed. The model may be viewed as phenomenological or derived directly by considering the effect of profile corrugations in an E×B staircase. The model, which is related to the FitzHugh–Nagumo system, supports the robust coexistence of multiple turbulence levels via bistability. We show that this model predicts stronger penetration of turbulence into a linearly stable region as well as the formation of intermittent turbulence fronts that resemble avalanches. We derive the critical size that a localized slug of turbulence must exceed in order to spread. Lastly, we make a prediction of global hysteretic behavior associated with the bistability, which should be testable via experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nominal and adversarial synthetic PMU data for standard IEEE test systems

GridSTAGE (Spatio-Temporal Adversarial scenario GEneration) is a framework for the simulation of adversarial scenarios and the generation of multivariate spatio-temporal data in cyber-physical systems. GridSTAGE is developed based on Matlab and leverages Power System Toolbox (PST) where the evolution of the power network is governed by nonlinear differential equations. Using GridSTAGE, one can create several event scenarios that correspond to several operating states of the power network by enabling or disabling any of the following: faults, AGC control, PSS control, exciter control, load changes, generation changes, and different types of cyber-attacks. Standard IEEE bus system data is used to define the power system environment. GridSTAGE emulates the data from PMU and SCADA sensors. The rate of frequency and location of the sensors can be adjusted as well. Detailed instructions on generating data scenarios with different system topologies, attack characteristics, load characteristics, sensor configuration, control parameters are available in the Github repository - https://github.com/pnnl/GridSTAGE. There is no existing adversarial data-generation framework that can incorporate several attack characteristics and yield adversarial PMU data. The GridSTAGE framework currently supports simulation of False Data Injection attacks (such as a ramp, step, random, trapezoidal, multiplicative, replay, freezing) and Denial of Service attacks (such as time-delay, packet-loss) on PMU data. Furthermore, it supports generating spatio-temporal time-series data corresponding to several random load changes across the network or corresponding to several generation changes. A Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify the false data attacks in real-time is proposed in https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9303022. Machine learning-based predictive models are developed to capture the dynamics of the underlying power system with a high level of accuracy under various operating conditions for IEEE 68 bus system. The corresponding machine learning models are available at https://github.com/pnnl/grid_prediction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Initial results from a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system and comparisons with the AVE-SESAME I data set

The development of a comprehensive mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is described in detail. The modeling system is designed for both research and real-time forecast applications. The 14-level numerical model, which has a 48 km grid mesh, can be run over most of North America and the adjacent oceanic regions. The model employs sixth-order accurate numerics, generalized similarity theory boundary-layer physics, a sophisticated cumulus parameterization scheme, and state of the art analysis and initialization techniques. Examples of model output on the synoptic and subsynoptic scales are presented for the AVE-SESAME I field experiment on 10-11 April 1979. The model output is subjectively compared to the observational analysis and the LFM II output on the synoptic scale. Subsynoptic model output is compared to analyses generated from the AVE-SESAME I data set.

Kaplan, M. L.↗