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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Polar Coding For Forward Error Correction In Space Communications With LDPC Comparisons

With the surging development of optical telecommunicationsfor space applications, the importance of errorcorrection has become more apparent than ever. Specifically,the exploration of forward error correction code (FEC) methodologieswill be instrumental in developing the standards foroptical communications in space. Despite the widespread useof low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes, alternate FEC codessuch as polar codes have shown immense promise in assistingspace communications error correction with their ability tobypass the error floors that plague LDPC codes. Extremelypromising techniques including cyclic redundancy checks (CRC),successive cancellation (SC), and successive cancellation lists(SCL) that assist polar coding in achieving the Shannon limitin a timely manner are evaluated. MATLAB simulations areconducted with AWGN and burst noise to test each technique'sability to handle noise typically encountered in space and eachtechnique's ability to correct unexpected errors. Results ofsimulations for different rates and message lengths are alsoreported to determine each technique's ability to handle largedata volumes and fix errors. Similar simulations are conductedfor LDPC codes with additional tests for convolutional and nointerleavers. Finally, a discussion regarding the future ability ofpolar codes to satisfy current missions in the place of, or inconjunction with, LDPC codes along with the merits of eachFEC technique's ability to process data efficiently and handledata while maintaining adequate performance will be provided.Preliminary recommendations will be made for each technique'seffectiveness for GEO related missions along with discussionsregarding each technique's ability to fit within the CCSDS standards for optical communications.

Polar Coding↗
NASA NTRS2019

Effects of Wall Cooling on Supersonic Modes in High-Enthalpy Hypersonic Boundary Layers over a Cone

High-enthalpy hypersonic boundary-layer transition plays an important role in many entry/descent vehicles. Aerothermodynamic performance of these vehicles strongly depends on the transition location on the surface. However, detailed transition flow physics in these chemically reacting boundary layers are poorly understood and transition estimates during the design phase rely heavily on empirically-derived transition criteria such as 𝑹𝒆(𝜽)/𝑴(𝒆). One of the most intriguing characteristics in hypersonic boundary layers is the presence of unstable supersonic modes, first identified in the 1990s. Due to a recent surge in hypersonic applications, there has been renewed interest in studying the flow physics of supersonic modes using either theory or direct numerical simulations. This paper investigates the rise of supersonic modes in a high-enthalpy hypersonic flow over a 𝟓° half-angle cone at various wall temperatures using both quasiparallel linear stability theory and linear PSE. It was found that supersonic modes exist in all wall temperature conditions including the adiabatic wall case. Cooler wall temperature causes the second Mack mode to become an unstable supersonic mode naturally downstream of the upper-branch neutral location when the wall is sufficiently cooled. In terms of the integrated growth, the second mode is still the dominant mode. Nonetheless, supersonic modes can cause additional series of relatively weaker growth than that of the second mode beyond the peak amplitude location. According to the present linear PSE results, contrary to what was speculated in the literature, supersonic-mode pressure disturbance structure radiated into the freestream is nonacoustic in nature and the formation of unstable supersonic modes is mainly associated with the synchronization of phase speed between the instability and acoustic waves in a nonp ayer, not due to nonlinear modal interaction as suggested in the literature.

Chang, Chau-Lyan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-35322-DND

This talk discusses emerging methods that seek to fuse and integrate physics-based modeling with machine learning. With the recent rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, there has been a huge surge in data-driven approaches to solve computational science and engineering problems. However, neglecting a priori knowledge of established physical laws and relying solely on data-driven methods can yield unreliable, less interpretable, and/or non-physical results, especially when data is sparse or predictions are required outside of the training data domain. This two part talk presents two distinct approaches for accelerating predictions with machine learning that are grounded and constrained by relevant physics and their application to problems at NASA.

Julian Cuevas Paniagua↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tesla Valve Integration into Propulsion Systems for Water Hammer Mitigation

Water hammer is a pressure surge or wave caused when a liquid in motion is forced to stop or change direction suddenly. Satellite and in-space propulsion systems exhibit this effect when valves, which can pulse several times per second, close quickly to isolate propellant from thrusters. The inherent nature of pulsing thrusters quickly has made water hammer a constant design challenge for these systems. Historically, the standard is to accept that the Maximum Design Pressure (MDP) of the system must account for a full worst case water-hammer event, which can be several times the Maximum Expected Operating Pressure (MEOP). An investigation is being conducted to determine the effectiveness of tesla valves in reducing water hammer amplitudes. Tesla Valves can be used in-line within propulsion systems to allow unrestricted flow in one direction and restricted flow in the opposite direction without the use of added mechanical or electrical components. Tesla valves use fixed internal geometry to allow for this unrestricted and restricted flow. With the increase and capability of Additive Manufacturing (AM), different configurations and concepts of tesla valves can be manufactured and tested at minimal cost. This concept could possibly be used to allow for a less complicated, or robust satellite and in-space propulsion system. This presentation will cover topics of additive manufactured design of tesla valves, testing, and variables to consider within tesla valve creation.

Michael A Willis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Airborne and Space-Based Remote Sensing Imagery to Implement the Unvegetated-Vegetated Ratio to Assess Salt Marsh Vulnerability in South Carolina

Among the most productive ecosystems on earth, salt marshes provide crucial ecosystem services including water filtration, shoreline protection, storm surge buffering, and flood mitigation. Marshes are largely dependent on their sediment budget which can significantly vary across a region and can be used to determine the life span of the marsh. Upstream land use change near Charleston, South Carolina, along with rising sea levels, are expected to alter sediment budgets and threaten marsh stability and long-term health. The unvegetated-vegetated ratio (UVVR), developed by researchers at USGS, is a scalable and efficient method to assess vulnerability. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, and the United States Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center to apply the UVVR method within Google Earth Engine. Marsh vulnerability was analyzed using UVVR derived from clustering and manual interpretation of National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) high-resolution aerial imagery. NAIP derived UVVR was aggregated to Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) resolution and projection. A Random Forest Regression between Landsat derived data and UVVR was modeled to estimate a potential relationship. The estimation of this relationship was used to produce temporal change analysis maps of salt marsh vulnerability back to 1984. The NAIP imagery processed through Google Earth Engine allowed us to make detailed UVVR maps for 2009, 2015, 2017, and 2019 for decision making within South Carolina. Google Earth Engine scripting provided a novel approach to UVVR methodology that will allow decision makers to input new marsh regions and easily calculate marsh vulnerability without external data downloading. These results were used to understand what areas of the marsh need most resource allocation in the future.

NASA DEVELOP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HydroSAR: A Cloud-based SAR Data Analysis Service to Monitor Hydrological Disasters and their Impact on Population and Agriculture

Weather-related hazards are ubiquitous around the world including: 1) hurricane storm surges, 2) rapid snowmelt and heavy rainfall, 3) severe weather leading to flash floods, and 4) seasonal freeze and thaw of rivers that may lead to ice jams. Each of these hazards affects human settlements and has the potential to impact agricultural productivity. In each setting, end-users in disaster management need access to data processing tools helpful in mapping past and current disasters. Analysis of past events supports risk mitigation by understanding what has already occurred and how to alleviate those impacts in the future. Having capabilities to generate the same products in a response setting means that lessons learned from risk analysis will carry forward to event response. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are particularly useful for these activities due to their all-weather 24/7 monitoring capabilities. In this effort we present HydroSAR, a cloud-based SAR data analysis service for the mapping of meteorological and hydrological disasters as well as their impact on population and agriculture. As part of this project we have developed a series of SAR-based value added products for the monitoring of surface hydrology (image time series, change detection, flood extent, flood depth) and the assessment of impacts on population (flood depth) and agriculture (active agriculture, inundated agriculture, flood duration). We also developed a cloud-based platform for generating these products over affected areas and are working with end-users to integrate derived product into decision-making workflows The paper will briefly introduce the SAR-based products that were developed for this effort. We describe the cloud-based production pipeline that was built to automatically generate these products in near-real time over extended regions. The integration of SAR-based information into hazard preparation and response activities is described for a number of recent disasters including the 2019 forest fires in Alaska, 2019 flooding in the U.S. Midwest, the 2020 U.S. severe weather easter outbreak, 2020 tropical storm Christobal, 2020 cyclone Amphan, 2020, Alaska Spring breakup flooding, and the 2020 flood season in Eastern India, Bangladesh, and Nepal.

Franz Josef Meyer↗
NASA NTRS2020

South Carolina Water Resources Project Summary - Implementing the Unvegetated-Vegetated Ratio to Assess Salt Marsh Vulnerability in South Carolina Using Airborne and Space-Based Remote Sensing Imagery

Among the most productive ecosystems on earth, salt marshes provide crucial ecosystem services including water filtration, shoreline protection, storm surge buffering, and flood mitigation. Marshes are largely dependent on their sediment budget which can significantly vary across a region. Upstream land use change near Charleston, South Carolina, along with rising sea levels, are expected to alter sediment budgets and threaten marsh stability and long-term health. The unvegetated-vegetated ratio (UVVR) is a scalable and efficient method to assess vulnerability. This NASA DEVELOP project collaborated with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, and the United States Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center. Marsh vulnerability was analyzed using UVVR derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) in conjunction with National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) high-resolution aerial imagery. A Landsat random forest regression showed a low correlation (r2 = 0.247) between Landsat 7 ETM+ bands and NAIP aggregated UVVR suggesting the need for a more complex model and higher resolution sensors. Google Earth Engine scripting provided a novel approach to UVVR methodology that will allow decision makers to input new marsh areas and easily calculate UVVR without external data downloading.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Open-Source Earth Observations to Inform the Toa Baja Municipality’s Flood Risk Mitigation Efforts and Educate the Public

Global climate changes contribute to more intense and frequent tropical storms, subjecting places like Toa Baja, Puerto Rico to critical damage. Known as “the underwater city” due to its propensity to flood, residents of Toa Baja face constant flood risk. During extreme tropical storm events, such as Hurricane Maria in 2017, residents experienced up to 20 feet of inundation. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the Municipio Autónomo de Toa Baja, ResilientSEE-PR, and the MIT Urban Risk Lab to supplement 2018 FEMA HEC-RAS flood maps that designate 63% of Toa Baja as a flood plain. This analysis provides a high-resolution interpretation of flood risk through two lenses; susceptibility and vulnerability. For this analysis, susceptibility consists of nine weighted layers: NDVI, landcover, slope, elevation, topographic wetness index, height above nearest drainage, saturated hydraulic conductivity, distance to water, and storm surge. These factors are consistently used to evaluate susceptibility to flood, but their weights vary by analysis. Vulnerability consists of population, informal settlements, and building density, which were given equal weight. Susceptibility and vulnerability were combined to map flood risk. This analysis used a bivariate legend to understand the different levels of risk along a spectrum from low susceptibility and low vulnerability (low risk) to high susceptibility and high vulnerability (high risk). Data processed in Google Earth Engine, which identified historical inundation on various occasions, were used to validate the flood susceptibility layers. Results showed 89% of areas designated as high susceptibility are located within the floodway designated by the FEMA HEC-RAS maps. The eastern region of Toa Baja is most at risk for flooding due to high susceptibility to flooding along with a high density of population, buildings, and informal settlements. The resulting map also reveals the presence of smaller high-risk areas all around the municipality. This analysis provides scientific evidence for flood risk mitigation in Toa Baja by highlighting areas that might be impacted by strong floods in the future. Additionally, these results are communicated in an Esri ArcGIS StoryMap, an accessible platform that can easily inform the public about the flood risk in their neighborhood.

Adriana Le Compte↗
NASA NTRS2008

Opportunities offered by space technology to enable the next giant leap in the evolution

As humanity entering the new millennium with many of the profound challenges ever encountered in the history of mankind due to population increases faster than wealth creation, surge of ambitions by many countries to achieve better life independent of risk or their available resources and capabilities. The challenge to predict or control the evolution of world crisis is even harder because of the ease in acquiring knowledge, information, and technical capabilities by any individual or group due to the wide spread of “know-how” through the internet to all people without having to invest in technology development.

Marzwell, Neville↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inertial Centrifugal-Based Pre-filter for Spacecraft Life Support Systems

The intrusion of planetary dust inside space vehicles on future Lunar missions may lead to performance compromises of the cabin air-filtration system. The evasive character of the fine planetary dust, in particular lunar dust, could enable the dust to make its way through the seals and barriers of the EVA hatches and become airborne in the cabin. This can result in performance and capacity overload of the high efficiency filter media and particle separation systems. Adequate pre-filtration can substantially reduce the load on the higher efficiency components leading to smaller dust loads during surge and nominal dust loading conditions, thereby protecting and extending the life of these components. A particle separation concept, based on centrifugal separation, is being investigated for its application as a pre-filter. The concept has previously been proposed for application in the aircraft engine industry, as means of capturing corrosive dust and salt deposits that may harm the engine. The technique has the advantages of being passive, integrable to HVAC and space vehicle architecture, and has the potential for high degree of particle separation with proper fluid dynamic design. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and particle tracing modeling were used to arrive at an initial design for rapid prototyping and testing. If feasible, the concept can be integrated to the Scroll Filter System which is being developed by NASA to address the filtration demands on long during spaceflight and surface missions. This paper will describe the modeling results of this concept.

Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decadal and seasonal changes in barrier island geomorphology at Padre Island from 1950-2020

Barrier islands serve an important role in shielding coastal areas from storm surges and wave erosion. Monitoring changes in a barrier island system helps determine the effect of storms and sea level rise (SLR) on island stability. Changes in geomorphic facies on the islands may be indicators of an island shifting out of an equilibrium state. Here, we used aerial and satellite images of Padre Island, Texas near Mansfield Pass, to map the decadal and seasonal geomorphological changes from 1970-2020. Inspection of the images reveals that this area experienced significant change over the past five decades, transitioning from unvegetated dune fields and sand flats to expansive vegetated dunes and a tidal flat with microbial mats. Vegetated dunes, absent in 1970, now cover 14% of the study area. The active dune field shrunk from 12% coverage to 6%. The infrequently flooded back-island sand flat covering 40% of the study area has transitioned to a lower-lying tidal flat. Extensive microbial mats and crusts have developed within the wind-tidal flat, in washover fans, and in low-lying interdune areas. Possible triggers for the transition from active sand dune fields to microbial mats and vegetation may be modifications to the island topography post-hurricane Allen in 1980 and a sea-level driven water table rise. The local sea level has risen 16 cm over the study period. Monthly mapping over a full year demonstrated the strong influence the seasonal water cycle has on the back-island facies. Aeolian transport plays a primary role in the back-island geomorphology, however the availability of sand for transport is highly variable from month to month as the surface fluctuates in and out of the capillary fringe. The increasing prevalence of water table-driven facies changes leads to the conclusion that back-barrier accretion is not keeping pace with relative SLR. These facies changes may be the first signs of a degrading microtidal barrier island.

K.R. Fisher↗
NASA NTRS2021

Trends in Barrier Island Geomorphology Under Continuous Sea Level Rise: Padre Island from 1940-2020

Barrier islands serve an important role in shielding coastal areas from storm surges and wave erosion. Monitoring changes in a barrier island system helps determine the combined effect of sediment supply, aeolian sand transport, storms and sea level rise (SLR) on long-term island survival. Here we present and discuss changes to the southern end of Padre Island (TX),including a back-barrier active dune field, across 7 decades from 1941 - 2020. We have used aerial photos, satellite imagery, and field monitoring to map the decadal and seasonal geomorphological changes. We produced facies maps for each decade from 1970 to present, complemented with qualitative observations for 1941-1970, when aerial imagery was incomplete. We also used supervised classification to monitor monthly changes in the availability of sand for aeolian transport over a full seasonal cycle, to determine the role of the fluctuating water table on the sand budget of the active dune field. Results indicate that the southern end of Padre Island experienced significant change over the study period, transitioning from unvegetated dune fields and sand flats to expansive vegetated dunes, a tidal flat with microbial mats and a shrinking active dune field. Vegetated dunes, absent in 1970, now cover 14% of the study area. The active dune field shrunk from 12%coverage to 6%, with sand available for transport varying from 3% to 21% as the water table fluctuates throughout the year. The infrequently flooded back-island sand flat covering 40% of the study area has transitioned to a lower-lying tidal flat. Furthermore, extensive microbial mats and crusts have developed within the wind-tidal flat, in washover fans, and in low-lying interdune areas. All these early signs are consistent with a progressive drowning of the barrier island, an event we hypothesize was triggered by the sudden spread of vegetation along the back-beach dunes. Plant colonization then cut off sand supply from the beach to the back-barrier, and thus access to the primary source of sand to the system. Our findings highlight the contradictory role of vegetation in barrier islands, as they stabilize dunes and promote sand accretion at the back-beach, while also isolating the back-barrier from aeolian sediment sources, thus amplifying the effects of sea level rise in the absence of salt marshes and/or mangrove platforms.

K R Fisher↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inertial Centrifugal-Based Pre-filter for Spacecraft Life Support Systems

The intrusion of planetary dust inside space vehicles on future Lunar missions may lead to performance compromises of the cabin air-filtration system. The evasive character of the fine planetary dust, in particular lunar dust, could enable the dust to make its way through the seals and barriers of the EVA hatches and become airborne in the cabin. This can result in performance and capacity overload of the high efficiency filter media and particle separation systems. Adequate pre-filtration can substantially reduce the load on the higher efficiency components leading to smaller dust loads during surge and nominal dust loading conditions, thereby protecting and extending the life of these components. A particle separation concept, based on centrifugal separation, is being investigated for its application as a pre-filter. The concept has previously been proposed for application in the aircraft engine industry, as means of capturing corrosive dust and salt deposits that may harm the engine. The technique has the advantages of being passive, integrable to HVAC and space vehicle architecture, and has the potential for high degree of particle separation with proper fluid dynamic design. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and particle tracing modeling were used to arrive at an initial design for rapid prototyping and testing. If feasible, the concept can be integrated to the Scroll Filter System which is being developed by NASA to address the filtration demands on long during spaceflight and surface missions. This paper will describe the modeling results of this concept.

Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRS2021

Satellites Support Disaster Response to Storm-Driven Landslides

High winds and flooding storm surges driven by tropical cyclones cause some of the deadliest and most damaging weather-related conditions around the world. The rainfall that cyclones bring compounds these conditions and, in hilly or mountainous areas, can trigger landslides that cause even more widespread and devastating impacts. When extreme precipitation occurs over short time frames, hillslopes may become saturated and critically unstable. The most intense storms can trigger thousands of landslides in mountainous areas, as was dramatically illustrated in Puerto Rico in September 2017, when Hurricane Maria’s rains left the landscape scarred by roughly 40,000 landslides. Before and during a major cyclone, disaster responders need information about where landslides are likely to occur. In the aftermath, locating landslides quickly helps authorities direct resources to where they are most needed to save people and critical infrastructure. However, this information is often unavailable during an event response or is presented only for small regions, constraining the effectiveness of response efforts.

Robert Emberson↗
NASA NTRS2021

Jobos Bay Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Analyze Shoreline Changes and Understand the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Southern Puerto Rico

Jobos Bay is located on the southern coast of Puerto Rico, which is known for intense hurricane seasons and increased seasonal storm surge. Scientists at Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR) are concerned that sea level rise will exacerbate coastal damage from these weather events. Using NASA Earth observations, our team analyzed coastal change, land use land cover change (LULC), mangrove forest extent, and water quality of Jobos Bay. Using Google Earth Engine, we evaluated coastal change and mangrove forest habitat within the study region by classifying NASA Earth observation imagery. We created historic LULC composite images to observe how land use changes over time and improve understanding of urbanization in the watershed. Leveraging previous water quality studies, our team compared water quality datasets generated by the Optical Reef and Coastal Area Assessment (ORCAA) tool to in situ sensors provided by JBNERR partners to understand the overall quality of water in the study area with respect to turbidity, chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature, and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations. We discovered that 17% of the reserve has shifted from land to water since 1997 and lost 4.85 square kilometers of mangrove habitat over the past decade. Results from this study will inform the scientists of JBNERR and community members of the regional impacts of sea level rise. Being the first comprehensive study done in the estuary in nearly a decade, this serves as a baseline for future conservation efforts and research in the estuary.

Olivia Spencer↗
NASA NTRS2021

Louisiana Water Resources: Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Historical Changes in the Extension of Seagrass Meadows in the Breton National Wildlife Refuge in Louisiana

The barrier islands of Louisiana’s Breton National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR) are disappearing due to sea level rise, extreme hurricanes, sediment starvation, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. This decline in land area has damaged important bird habitat and reduced the islands’ ability to protect coastal Louisiana from storm surges. The persistence of the islands is synergetic to that of the surrounding seagrass beds; seagrass binds together land, protecting the islands from erosion, and the loss of land exposes the seagrass and accelerates its decline. Furthermore, seagrass is independently important, absorbing excess nutrients and providing habitat for marine ecosystems. Here we present the Tool for Coastal Remote Ecological Observations in Louisiana (Tool CREOL), a Google Earth Engine Tool built to easily access data from Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Aqua and Terra MODIS. We show, using time series and maps generated using the tool, how land area and seagrass have responded to destructive events from the past 36 years (1984-2021). In only 7 years, Hurricane Georges (1998), Ivan (2004), and Katrina (2005) reduced land area by approximately 85%, accompanied by a major decline in seagrass extent. Tool CREOL will have strategic utility in planning upcoming restoration and revegetation efforts planned by Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority in the Breton National Wildlife Refuge and will provide up-to-date monitoring of the results of that project. The tool serves as a basic model which can be adapted to study similar coastal regions in the world.

Mariam Moeen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2021

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗