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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

A game-theoretic approach to nuclear fuel cycle transition analysis under uncertainty

We present a novel methodology for optimizing nuclear fuel cycle transitions that incorporates a game-theoretic approach and captures interactions among multiple decision makers. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-person sequential game with uncertainty, where the two players represent a policy maker and an electric utility company, though the method generalizes to any number and type of individual decision making entities. Coupled with a sophisticated nuclear fuel cycle simulator, rich transition scenarios may be analyzed to identify robust transition strategies. These strategies explicitly treat uncertainties using a stochastic programming approach, devising optimal near-term hedging strategies that simultaneously consider all possible states of the world, maintaining flexibility to allow for intelligent recourse decisions once uncertainties are resolved. In the demonstration game, reactor technology and fuel cycle scheme adopted by the electric utility are shown to depend on both the policy maker’s decisions and the distributions over uncertain technological and economic outcomes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimization models for integrated biorefinery operations

Variations of physical and chemical characteristics of biomass lead to an uneven flow of biomass in a biorefinery, which reduces equipment utilization and increases operational costs. Uncertainty of biomass supply and high processing costs increase the risk of investing in the US’s cellulosic biofuel industry. We propose a stochastic programming model to streamline processes within a biorefinery. A chance constraint models system’s reliability requirement that the reactor is operating at a high utilization rate given uncertain biomass moisture content, particle size distribution, and equipment failure. The model identifies operating conditions of equipment and inventory level to maintain a continuous flow of biomass to the reactor. Furthermore, the sample average approximation method approximates the chance constraint and a bisection search-based heuristic solves this approximation. A case study is developed using real-life data collected at Idaho National Laboratory’s biomass processing facility. An extensive computational analysis indicates that sequencing of biomass bales based on moisture level, increasing storage capacity, and managing particle size distribution, increases utilization of the reactor and reduces operational costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effects of as-received defects on ceramic matrix composites properties using high-fidelity microstructures with periodic boundary conditions

The presence of microstructural defects in as-received specimens of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) significantly influences their constitutive response and damage, highlighting the importance of characterization and quantification of these defects for accurate assessment of damage and failure in the service environment. In a recent effort, the authors developed an algorithm to generate stochastic representative volume elements (SRVEs) of Carbon fiber Silicon-Carbide-Nitride matrix (C/SiNC) CMCs based on extensive multiscale material and defect characterization data. This paper implements this algorithm within a commercial finite element solver with periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) for high-fidelity micromechanics analysis and investigation of macroscopic material behavior of C/SiNC composites. Different loading directions are used to predict the global mechanical properties, and the results are in excellent agreement with theoretical (rule of mixture) predictions. Subsequently, the effects of as-received defects on the global and local responses are investigated. The results show that intratow porosity has pronounced degradation effects on the global elastic properties and results in complex stress localization patterns, which can be attributed to potential damage initiation sites.

Khafagy, Khaled H.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A stochastic bioburden model for spacecraft sterilization.

Development of a stochastic model of the probability distribution for the random variable representing the number of microorganisms on a surface as a function of time. The first basic principle associated with bioburden estimation is that viable particles are removed from surfaces. The second notion important to the analysis is that microorganisms in environments and on surfaces occur in clumps. The last basic principle relating to bioburden modeling is that viable particles are deposited on a surface. The bioburden on a spacecraft is determined by the amount and kind of control exercised on the spacecraft assembly location, the shedding characteristics of the individuals in the vicinity of the spacecraft, its orientation, the geographical location in which the assembly takes place, and the steps in the assembly procedure. The model presented has many of the features which are desirable for its use in the spacecraft sterilization programs currently being planned by NASA.

Roark, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. This includes completion of a literature survey regarding Weibull size effect in MEMS and strength testing techniques. Also of interest is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in tensile specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. Another potential item of interest is analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structuredlife (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. Along these lines work may also be performed on transient fatigue life prediction methodologies.

Jadaan, Osama M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advances in imaging of chemically reacting flows

Many important chemically reacting systems are inherently multi-dimensional with spatial and temporal variations in the thermochemical state, which can be strongly coupled to interactions with transport processes. Fundamental insights into these systems require multi-dimensional measurements of the thermochemical state as well as fluid dynamics quantities. Laser-based imaging diagnostics provide spatially and temporally resolved measurements that help address this need. The state of the art in imaging diagnostics is continually progressing with the goal of attaining simultaneous multi-parameter measurements that capture transient processes, particularly those that lead to stochastic events, such as localized extinction in turbulent combustion. Development efforts in imaging diagnostics benefit from advances in laser and detector technology. This article provides a perspective on the progression of increasing dimensionality of laser-based imaging diagnostics and highlights the evolution from single-point measurements to 1D and 2D multi-parameter imaging and 3D high-speed imaging. This evolution is demonstrated using highlights of laser-based imaging techniques in combustion science research as an exemplar of a complex multi-dimensional chemically reacting system with chemistry–transport coupling. Imaging diagnostics impact basic research in other chemically reacting systems as well, such as measurements of near-surface gases in heterogeneous catalysis. The expanding dimensionality of imaging diagnostics leads to larger and more complex datasets that require increasingly demanding approaches to data analysis and provide opportunities for increased collaboration between experimental and computational researchers in tackling these challenges.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microstructure Clones

Microstructure drives component behavior. Contemporary crystal plasticity studies compare strain measurements of polycrystal specimens to models. Because each specimen is unique, it is impossible to know which differences are significant. In this project, we invented microstructure clones and explored their use in understanding crystal plasticity. Microstructure clones are specimens with nearly identical microstructures, which allows for multiple destructive tests of a microstructure, insight into how a specimen will deform, variability quantification, and the ability to measure the effects of microstructural changes. Several sets of microstructure clones, pure nickel tensile bars, were tested. The techniques of digital image correlation, crystal plasticity finite element analysis, high resolution electron backscatter diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and dislocation dynamics were used to understand the structural behavior of these microstructures. This work reshapes the fields of crystal plasticity and structure-property relationships by providing a technique to control for specific variables, quantify microstructural stochasticity, and replicate experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discovering $\mu$Hz gravitational waves and ultra-light dark matter with binary resonances

In the presence of a weak gravitational wave (GW) background, astrophysical binary systems act as high-quality resonators, with efficient transfer of energy and momentum between the orbit and a harmonic GW leading to potentially detectable orbital perturbations. In this work, we develop and apply a novel modeling and analysis framework that describes the imprints of GWs on binary systems in a fully time-resolved manner to study the sensitivity of lunar laser ranging, satellite laser ranging, and pulsar timing to both resonant and nonresonant GW backgrounds. We demonstrate that optimal data collection, modeling, and analysis lead to projected sensitivities which are orders of magnitude better than previously appreciated possible, opening up a new possibility for probing the physics-rich but notoriously challenging to access $\mu\mathrm{Hz}$ frequency GWs. We also discuss improved prospects for the detection of the stochastic fluctuations of ultra-light dark matter, which may analogously perturb the binary orbits.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Solar flux forecasting using mutual information with an optimal delay

Solar flux F(sub 10.7) directly affects the atmospheric density, thereby changing the lifetime and prediction of satellite orbits. For this reason, accurate forecasting of F(sub 10.7) is crucial for orbit determination of spacecraft. Our attempts to model and forecast F(sub 10.7) uncovered highly entangled dynamics. We concluded that the general lack of predictability in solar activity arises from its nonlinear nature. Nonlinear dynamics allow us to predict F(sub 10.7) more accurately than is possible using stochastic methods for time scales shorter than a characteristic horizon, and with about the same accuracy as using stochastic techniques when the forecasted data exceed this horizon. The forecast horizon is a function of two dynamical invariants: the attractor dimension and the Lyapunov exponent. In recent years, estimation of the attractor dimension reconstructed from a time series has become an important tool in data analysis. In calculating the invariants of the system, the first necessary step is the reconstruction of the attractor for the system from the time-delayed values of the time series. The choice of the time delay is critical for this reconstruction. For an infinite amount of noise-free data, the time delay can, in principle, be chosen almost arbitrarily. However, the quality of the phase portraits produced using the time-delay technique is determined by the value chosen for the delay time. Fraser and Swinney have shown that a good choice for this time delay is the one suggested by Shaw, which uses the first local minimum of the mutual information rather than the autocorrelation function to determine the time delay. This paper presents a refinement of this criterion and applies the refined technique to solar flux data to produce a forecast of the solar activity.

Ashrafi, S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

An effective description of charge diffusion and energy transport in a charged plasma from holography

We discuss the physics of sound propagation and charge diffusion in a plasma with non-vanishing charge density. Our analysis culminates the program initiated in to construct an open effective field theory of low-lying modes of the stress tensor and charge current in such plasmas. We model the plasma holographically as a Reissner-Nordström-AdS d+1 black hole, and study linearized fluctuations of longitudinally polarized scalar gravitons and photons in this background. We demonstrate that the perturbations can be decoupled and repackaged into the dynamics of two designer scalars, whose gravitational coupling is modulated by a non-trivial dilatonic factor. The holographic analysis allows us to isolate the phonon mode from the charge diffusion mode, and identify the combination of currents that corresponds to each of them. We use these results to obtain the real-time Gaussian effective action, which includes both the retarded response and the associated stochastic (Hawking) fluctuations, accurate to quartic order in gradients.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simple Monomers for Precise Polymer Functionalization During Ring-Opening Metathesis Polymerization

Controlling the monomer sequence of synthetic polymers is a grand challenge in polymer science. Conventional sequence control has been achieved in dispersed polymers by exploiting the kinetic tendencies of monomers and their order of addition. While the sequence of blocks in multiblock copolymers can be readily tuned using sequential addition of monomers (SAM), control over the sequence distribution is eroded as the targeted block size approaches a single monomer unit (i.e., X n ~ 1) due to the stochastic nature of chain-growth reactions. Thus, unique monomers are needed to ensure precise single additions. Herein, we investigate common classes of cyclic olefin monomers for ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP) to identify monomers for single unit addition during sequential monomer addition synthesis. Through careful analysis of polymerization kinetics, we find that easily synthesized oxanorbornene imide monomers are suitable for single-addition reactions. With the identified monomers, we demonstrate the synthesis of multiblock copolymers containing up to three precise functionalization sites and singly cross-linked four-armed star copolymers. In conclusion, we envision that expanded kinetic analyses of monomer reactivities in ROMP reactions will enable novel polymer synthesis capabilities such as the autonomous synthesis of sequence-defined polymers or one-shot multiblock copolymer syntheses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1978

The augmentation algorithm and molecular phylogenetic trees

Moore's (1977) augmentation procedure is discussed, and it is concluded that the procedure is valid for obtaining estimates of the total number of fixed nucleotide substitutions both theoretically and in practice, for both simulated and real data, and in agreement, for experimentally dense data sets, with stochastic estimates of the divergence, provided the restrictions on codon mutability resulting from natural selection are explicitly allowed for. Tateno and Nei's (1978) critique that the augmentation procedure has a systematic bias toward overestimation of the total number of nucleotide replacements is disputed, and a data analysis suggests that ancestral sequences inferred by the method of parsimony contain a large number of incorrectly assigned nucleotides.

Holmquist, R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A few parts in 10 to the 8th geodetic baseline repeatablity in the Gulf of California using the Global Positioning System

GPS geodetic measurements of 350-650 km baselines across the Pacific-North America plate boundary in the Gulf of California are presented. The analysis employs a four-station U.S. fiducial network and combined carrier phase and pseudorange data. Water vapor radiometer data at the Gulf sites are used to calibrate the GPS signal for wet tropospheric path delays. Residual tropospheric delays are modeled as first-order exponentially correlated stochastic processes. The measurement precision for horizontal components is a few parts in 10 to the 8th or better.

Tralli, David M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of subpixel vegetation cover using red-infrared scattergrams

The bulk properties of discontinuous vegetation canopies are estimated at subpixel scales by applying the method of moments to a linear stochastic geometric model of canopy-soil reflectance and one set of multispectral observations without ground truth. The procedure involves the formulation of conditional moments for subsets of pixels that possess similar properties and can be identified through their common orientation in red-infrared scattergrams. The analysis is facilitated by assuming geometric similarity among the canopy elements and by formulating a sampling scale ratio in terms of the bulk geometric scales of the canopy and the pixel. Three versions of the method are demonstrated using two simulated scenes and an actual forested watershed for which aerial radiometric data and corresponding ground truth were obtained.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets: Theory, Applications, and Solution

In this paper we introduce a new class of stochastic Petri nets in which one or more places can hold fluid rather than discrete tokens. We define a class of fluid stochastic Petri nets in such a way that the discrete and continuous portions may affect each other. Following this definition we provide equations for their transient and steady-state behavior. We present several examples showing the utility of the construct in communication network modeling and reliability analysis, and discuss important special cases. We then discuss numerical methods for computing the transient behavior of such nets. Finally, some numerical examples are presented.

Horton, Graham↗

NASA NTRS2000

Stardust Navigation Covariance Analysis

The Stardust spacecraft was launched on February 7, 1999 aboard a Boeing Delta-II rocket. Mission participants include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Lockheed Martin Astronautics (LMA) and the University of Washington. The primary objective of the mission is to collect in-situ samples of the coma of comet Wild-2 and return those samples to the Earth for analysis. Mission design and operational navigation for Stardust is performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). This paper will describe the extensive JPL effort in support of the Stardust pre-launch analysis of the orbit determination component of the mission covariance study. A description of the mission and it's trajectory will be provided first, followed by a discussion of the covariance procedure and models. Predicted accuracy's will be examined as they relate to navigation delivery requirements for specific critical events during the mission. Stardust was launched into a heliocentric trajectory in early 1999. It will perform an Earth Gravity Assist (EGA) on January 15, 2001 to acquire an orbit for the eventual rendezvous with comet Wild-2. The spacecraft will fly through the coma (atmosphere) on the dayside of Wild-2 on January 2, 2004. At that time samples will be obtained using an aerogel collector. After the comet encounter Stardust will return to Earth when the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) will separate and land at the Utah Test Site (UTTR) on January 15, 2006. The spacecraft will however be deflected off into a heliocentric orbit. The mission is divided into three phases for the covariance analysis. They are 1) Launch to EGA, 2) EGA to Wild-2 encounter and 3) Wild-2 encounter to Earth reentry. Orbit determination assumptions for each phase are provided. These include estimated and consider parameters and their associated a-priori uncertainties. Major perturbations to the trajectory include 19 deterministic and statistical maneuvers planned for the mission. The spacecraft is three axis stabilized and has unbalanced thrusters for attitude control. Accelerations due to the attitude control system are treated stochastically. The tracking scenario for the study is patterned after the actual schedule employed during the different phases of the mission. Conventional X-band two-way Doppler and SRA range data was simulated and the standard accuracy for these data types was assumed throughout most of the mission. However, a deweighting scheme was used for the Doppler data during times of low Sun-Earth-Probe angles, especially in the case of the DSM. Optical data is assumed to be available starting at 50 days prior to the comet encounter. The optical data will be used to improve the ephemeris of Wild-2, which is considered crucial to properly target the comet flyby. Results of the covariance analysis are presented for all mission phases. Navigation capability will be discussed in terms of the uncertainty in the encounter B-Plane (B.R and B.T) and linearized time of flight. Delivery errors based on the final maneuver prior to the comet encounter will be presented. The most stringent navigation requirement is for the Earth reentry. The uncertainty in the flight path angle must be less than 0.02 degree (orbit determination and maneuver performance) to assure successful recovery of the SRC. Results presented show that this requirement can be met.

Menon, Premkumar R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

LOGOS

LOGOS is a software package which contains a set of discrete optimization models that can be employed for capital budgeting optimization problems. More specifically, provided a set of items (characterized by cost and reward values) and constraints, these models select the best combination of items which maximizes overall reward and satisfies the provided constraints. The developed models are based on different versions of the knapsack optimization algorithms. Two main classes of optimization models have been initially developed: deterministic and stochastic. Stochastic optimization models evolve deterministic models by explicitly considering data uncertainties (associated to constraints or item cost and reward). These models can be employed as stand-alone models or interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code to propagate data uncertainties and analyze the generated data (i.e., sensitivity analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗

DOE OSTI2026

SPAROW: Stochastic Programming and Related Optimization Workflows

SAND2026-16703O SPAROW: Stochastic Programming and Related Optimization Workflows is a Python library tool that facilitates the development and solution of stochastic programming problems. It provides a user-friendly class structure for defining stochastic programs through scenario-based representations of uncertainties. SPAROW incorporates multiple optimization strategies, including integer programming with all scenarios, progressive hedging, Benders decomposition, and Snoglode, a novel technique developed by Carnegie Mellon University. It also features interfaces to external solvers and functions that are commonly used in analysis workflows, making it applicable to a wide range of scientific and engineering design challenges, particularly in power grid planning. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albu↗