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At least 739 records · Page 41

Benefit-cost evaluation of an intra-regional air service in the Bay area

Utilization of an iterative statistical model is presented to evaluate combinations of commuter airport sites and surface transportation facilities in confunction with service by a given commuter aircraft type in light of Bay Area regional growth alternatives and peak and off-peak regional travel patterns. The model evaluates such transportation options with respect to criteria of airline profitability, public acceptance, and public and private nonuser costs. It incorporates information modal split, peak and off-peak use of the air commuter fleet, terminal and airport cost, development costs and uses of land in proximity to the airport sites, regional population shifts, and induced zonal shifts in travel demand. The model is multimodal in its analytical capability, and performs exhaustive sensitivity analysis.

Haefner, L. E.↗

A study of Stormsat interactive data analysis facility

Stormsat, a third generation geosynchronous satellite intended for the investigation and forecasting of severe local storms, tropical cyclones and other mesoscale phenomena, could be launched as early as 1982. The paper outlines the interactive data processing and analysis functions which must be performed and presents a possible configuration capable of achieving the demonstration forecast objectives. Important features of the data processing system include (1) interactive extraction of wind, temperature and moisture profiles, cloud structure and precipitation from Stormsat data, and (2) numerical and statistical modeling necessary to provide demonstration forecasts.

Hasler, A. F.↗

Comment on 'The origin of transient cosmic ray intensity variations' by S. P. Duggal and M. A. Pomerantz

Transient Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic ray intensity have generally been linked to interplanetary shocks and solar flares. However, Duggal and Pomerantz (1977) have concluded that the majority of transient intensity variations of galactic cosmic rays cannot be assigned directly to specific solar flares. The object of the present paper is to show that the observations of Duggal and Pomerantz are in fact consistent with the solar flare origin of most transient cosmic ray reductions (i.e., with the solar flare hypothesis). The consistency of the Duggal-Pomerantz observations with the flare hypothesis is demonstrated on the basis of a statistical model of modulation which reproduces the essential features of their observations. In response to the present analysis (by Parker), Duggal and Pomerantz have presented additional arguments to the effect that the majority of transient intensity modifications (not necessarily Forbush decreases) during the period 1964-1974 were indeed related to the central meridian passage of active centers rather than to any other visible solar feature.

Parker, G. D.↗

Model of aircraft passenger acceptance

A technique developed to evaluate the passenger response to a transportation system environment is described. Reactions to motion, noise, temperature, seating, ventilation, sudden jolts and descents are modeled. Statistics are presented for the age, sex, occupation, and income distributions of the candidates analyzed. Values are noted for the relative importance of system variables such as time savings, on-time arrival, convenience, comfort, safety, the ability to read and write, and onboard services.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

Reproducibility of structural strength and stiffness for graphite-epoxy aircraft spoilers

Structural strength reproducibility of graphite epoxy composite spoilers for the Boeing 737 aircraft was evaluated by statically loading fifteen spoilers to failure at conditions simulating aerodynamic loads. Spoiler strength and stiffness data were statistically modeled using a two parameter Weibull distribution function. Shape parameter values calculated for the composite spoiler strength and stiffness were within the range of corresponding shape parameter values calculated for material property data of composite laminates. This agreement showed that reproducibility of full scale component structural properties was within the reproducibility range of data from material property tests.

Howell, W. E.↗

Prediction of spacecraft potentials at geosynchronous orbit

Two relatively straightforward techniques are outlined for determining spacecraft potentials in the limit of a 'thick sheath' surrounding the spacecraft. A statistical model of the various features of the geosynchronous environment based on ATS-5 and ATS-6 data and an analytic model capable of detailed simulation of the low energy geosynchronous environment are also discussed. The results from these two environmental models are then combined with the charging models in order to provide estimates of the relationships between the geomagnetic index and spacecraft potential. The results are compared with actual potential measurements from ATS-5 and ATS-6.

Garrett, H. B.↗

Spatial power spectra of the crustal geomagnetic field and core geomagnetic field

Equations providing numerical values of the geomagnetic field spherical harmonic spatial power spectrum as defined by Lowes (1966, 1974) are obtained and this power spectrum is related to various other power spectra. Equations relating the spherical harmonic spatial power spectrum to average great circle power spectra for components of the vector magnetic field in the radial direction, along the great circle track and perpendicular to the first two directions are derived under the assumption that the sources of the field are internal. A statistical model for the crustal and core geomagnetic fields is proposed and used to derive equations for the expected main and crustal spherical harmonic power spectra. The model equations are then compared with observations to determine a scale factor which is then used to obtain an estimate for the core radius and a great circle power spectrum for the field component perpendicular to the great circle and radial directions which are in good agreement with observations. The predicted spherical harmonic power spectrum for the crustal field is found to be consistent with POGO satellite and aircraft data. Other possible models for the crustal and core geomagnetic fields are also briefly considered.

Mcleod, M. G.↗

Satellite temperature monitoring and prediction system

The paper describes the Florida Satellite Freeze Forecast System (SFFS) in its current state. All data collection options have been demonstrated, and data collected over a three year period have been stored for future analysis. Presently, specific minimum temperature forecasts are issued routinely from November through March. The procedures for issuing these forecast are discussed. The automated data acquisition and processing system is described, and the physical and statistical models employed are examined.

Barnett, U. R.↗

Assessment of variations in thermal cycle life data of thermal barrier coated rods

The reported study had the purpose to examine variations in cyclic life and in adhesive/cohesive coating strength. Possible effects of heating rate, stress reversal, temperature level, and ceramic deposition methods on coating life were also investigated. Life cycle data for 22 thermal barrier coated rods were examined and found to be statistically modeled by normal or log-normal distributions. The sample mean was 1330 cycles with a standard deviation of 520 cycles. Adhesive/cohesive pulloff strength data for 20 thermal barrier coated flat head piston specimens were taken. The average pulloff stress was 9 MPa with a standard deviation of 4.2 MPa. It was found that variations in heating rate can produce significant variations in the life cycle data.

Hendricks, R. C.↗

Incorporating spatial context into statistical classification of multidimensional image data

Compound decision theory is employed to develop a general statistical model for classifying image data using spatial context. The classification algorithm developed from this model exploits the tendency of certain ground-cover classes to occur more frequently in some spatial contexts than in others. A key input to this contextural classifier is a quantitative characterization of this tendency: the context function. Several methods for estimating the context function are explored, and two complementary methods are recommended. The contextural classifier is shown to produce substantial improvements in classification accuracy compared to the accuracy produced by a non-contextural uniform-priors maximum likelihood classifier when these methods of estimating the context function are used. An approximate algorithm, which cuts computational requirements by over one-half, is presented. The search for an optimal implementation is furthered by an exploration of the relative merits of using spectral classes or information classes for classification and/or context function estimation.

Bauer, M. E.↗

Power availability at terrestrial receptor sites for laser-power transmission from the satellite power system

A statistical model was developed for relating the temporal transmission parameters of a laser beam from a solar power satellite to observable meteorological data to determine the influence of weather on power reception at the earth-based receiver. Sites within 100 miles of existing high voltage transmission lines were examined and the model was developed for clear-sky and clouded conditions. The cases of total transmission through clouds at certain wavelengths, no transmission, and partial transmission were calculated for the cloud portion of the model. The study covered cirriform, stratiform, cumiliform, and mixed type clouds and the possibility of boring holes through the clouds with the beam. Utilization of weapons-quality beams for hole boring, was found to yield power availability increases of 9-33%, although no beneficial effects could be predicted in regions of persistent cloud cover. An efficiency of 80% was determined as possible if several receptor sites were available within 200-300 miles of each other, thereby allowing changes of reception point in cases of unacceptable meteorological conditions.

Beverly, R. E., III↗

K sub A-band weather-dependent system performance estimates for Goldstone

A K sub A band atmospheric noise temperature and attenuation statistical model is developed for Goldstone, based on water vapor radiometer measurements at 31.4 GHz made during winter and spring 1981. An equivalent X-band model is derived from these measurements, and the two sets of data are compared to determine the possible advantages of developing DSN telecommunications links at 32 GHz. For a nominal elevation angle of 30 degrees and identical antennas, it is found that a K sub A band system at Goldstone will show a 5 to 1 dB signal-to-noise ratio advantage oer an X-band system more than 99 percent of the time.

Clauss, R. C.↗

Textural edge detection and sensitivity analysis

An optimum (global) textural edge detection operator based on statistical models for texture was developed. Also the effects of the imaging process on the textural patterns of a scene as it appears in the image were analyzed.

Shanmugan, K. S.↗

Crop classification using airborne radar and LANDSAT data

Airborne radar data acquired with a 13.3 GHz scatterometer over a test-site near Colby, Kansas were used to investigate the statistical properties of the scattering coefficient of three types of vegetation cover and of bare soil. A statistical model for radar data was developed that incorporates signal-fading and natural within-field variabilities. Estimates of the within-field and between-field coefficients of variation were obtained for each cover-type and compared with similar quantities derived from LANDSAT images of the same fields. The classification accuracy provided by LANDSAT alone, radar alone, and both sensors combined was investigated. The results indicate that the addition of radar to LANDSAT improves the classification accuracy by about 10; percentage-points when the classification is performed on a pixel basis and by about 15 points when performed on a field-average basis.

Ulaby, F. T.↗

Reliability and performance experience with flat-plate photovoltaic modules

Statistical models developed to define the most likely sources of photovoltaic (PV) array failures and the optimum method of allowing for the defects in order to achieve a 20 yr lifetime with acceptable performance degradation are summarized. Significant parameters were the cost of energy, annual power output, initial cost, replacement cost, rate of module replacement, the discount rate, and the plant lifetime. Acceptable degradation allocations were calculated to be 0.0001 cell failures/yr, 0.005 module failures/yr, 0.05 power loss/yr, a 0.01 rate of power loss/yr, and a 25 yr module wear-out length. Circuit redundancy techniques were determined to offset cell failures using fault tolerant designs such as series/parallel and bypass diode arrangements. Screening processes have been devised to eliminate cells that will crack in operation, and multiple electrical contacts at each cell compensate for the cells which escape the screening test and then crack when installed. The 20 yr array lifetime is expected to be achieved in the near-term.

Ross, R. G., Jr.↗

First-ranked galaxies in groups

A statistical analysis of five group catalogs shows that the B(0) magnitudes of first-ranked group members are consistent with a statistical model in which the luminosities of all group members are drawn from the same distribution. As in the Hickson compact groups, indications are that first-ranked group members are only rarely the products of distinctive evolutionary processes. Distance-dependent selection effects can introduce spurious correlations among group parameters which may appear to support environment-dependent evolution of the first-ranked group members.

Geller, M. J.↗