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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of the Radiative Forcing and Radiative Response at Earth’s Surface

In this work, we analyze the radiative forcing and radiative response at Earth’s surface, where perturbations in the radiation budget regulate the atmospheric hydrological cycle. By applying a radiative kernel-regression technique to CMIP5 climate model simulations where CO 2 is instantaneously quadrupled, we evaluate the intermodel spread in surface instantaneous radiative forcing, radiative adjustments to this forcing, and radiative responses to surface warming. The cloud radiative adjustment to CO 2 forcing and the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response exhibit significant intermodel spread. In contrast to its counterpart at the top of the atmosphere, the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response at the surface is found to be positive in some models and negative in others. Also, the compensation between the temperature-mediated lapse rate and water vapor radiative responses found in top-of-atmosphere calculations is not present for surface radiative flux changes. Instantaneous radiative forcing at the surface is rarely reported for model simulations; as a result, intermodel differences have not previously been evaluated in global climate models. We demonstrate that the instantaneous radiative forcing is the largest contributor to intermodel spread in effective radiative forcing at the surface. We also find evidence of differences in radiative parameterizations in current models and argue that this is a significant, but largely overlooked, source of bias in climate change simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1993

Numerical Computation of Low-Speed Concurrent Flow Flame Spread in Mixed Buoyant and Forced Flow

The effect of low-speed mixed convection (forced plus buoyant) on concurrent flow flame spread over a thin solid is examined. Computations are carried out using an existing model. Results indicate that seemingly small levels of gravity can significantly alter flame spread rates. Starting with a purely forced flow condition, as gravity is added, the entrainment due to buoyancy lengthens the flame and increases the spread rate significantly. Buoyancy has an influence on the extinction limits. At low speed, the presence of a small gravity level widens the flammability limit.

Ferkul, Paul V.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2016

Reliable Communication Models in Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Networks

Modern critical infrastructure networks are becoming increasingly interdependent where the failures in one network may cascade to other dependent networks, causing severe widespread national-scale failures. A number of previous efforts have been made to analyze the resiliency and robustness of interdependent networks based on different models. However, communication network, which plays an important role in today's infrastructures to detect and handle failures, has attracted little attention in the interdependency studies, and no previous models have captured enough practical features in the critical infrastructure networks. In this paper, we study the interdependencies between communication network and other kinds of critical infrastructure networks with an aim to identify vulnerable components and design resilient communication networks. We propose several interdependency models that systematically capture various features and dynamics of failures spreading in critical infrastructure networks. We also discuss several research challenges in building reliable communication solutions to handle failures in these models.

Lee, Sangkeun↗
NASA NTRS2003

Sounding Rocket Microgravity Experiments Elucidating Diffusive and Radiative Transport Effects on Flame Spread over Thermally-Thick Solids

A series of 6-minute microgravity combustion experiments of opposed flow flame spread over thermally-thick PMMA has been conducted to extend data previously reported at high opposed flows to almost two decades lower in flow. The effect of flow velocity on flame spread shows a square root power law dependence rather than the linear dependence predicted by thermal theory. The experiments demonstrate that opposed flow flame spread is viable to very low velocities and more robust than expected from the numerical model, which predicts that at very low velocities (less than 5 centimeters per second), flame spread rates fall off more rapidly as flow is reduced. It is hypothesized that the enhanced flame spread observed in the experiments may be due to three- dimensional hydrodynamic effects, which are not included in the zero-gravity, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The effect of external irradiation was found to be more complex that the model predicted over the 0-2 Watts per square centimeter range. In the experiments, the flame compensated for the increased irradiation by stabilizing farther from the surface. A surface energy balance reveals that the imposed flux was at least partially offset by a reduced conductive flux from the increased standoff distance, so that the effect on flame spread was weaker than anticipated.

Olson, Sandra L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of ignition and flame spreading in the Space Shuttle head-end star grain

A model to analyze the unsteady, multidimensional, turbulent flow in the head-end, star slot section of a solid rocket motor (SRM) during ignition transients is presented. This paper examines the complex interactions between the expanding igniter plume, the flow field within the star slot, the heat transfer to the solid propellant, ignition of the propellant, and subsequent flame spreading across the surface of the grain in the slot. The analysis provides a description of the ignition transient sequence from the onset of igniter flow to complete ignition of the head-end star slot region of the SRM.

Ciucci, A.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Many Molecular Properties from One Kernel in Chemical Space

We introduce property-independent kernels for machine learning modeling of arbitrarily many molecular properties. The kernels encode molecular structures for training sets of varying size, as well as similarity measures sufficiently diffuse in chemical space to sample over all training molecules. Corresponding molecular reference properties provided, they enable the instantaneous generation of ML models which can systematically be improved through the addition of more data. This idea is exemplified for single kernel based modeling of internal energy, enthalpy, free energy, heat capacity, polarizability, electronic spread, zero-point vibrational energy, energies of frontier orbitals, HOMOLUMO gap, and the highest fundamental vibrational wavenumber. Models of these properties are trained and tested using 112 kilo organic molecules of similar size. Resulting models are discussed as well as the kernels’ use for generating and using other property models.

Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Functional Organic Chemistry in Arctic Rivers: An Idealized Siberian System

Rivers of the Arctic will become ever more important for the global climate, since they carry a majority of continental dissolved organic carbon flux into the rapidly changing polar ocean. Aqueous organics comprise a wide array of functional groups, several of which are likely to impact coastal and open water biophysical properties. Light attenuation, interfacial films, aerosol formation, gas release and momentum exchange can all be cited. We performed Lagrangian kinetic modeling for the evolution of riverine organic chemistry as the molecules in question make their way from the highlands to Arctic outlets. Classes as diverse as the proteins, sugars, lipids, re-condensates, humics, bio-tracers and small volatiles are all included. Our reduced framework constitutes an idealized northward flow driving a major hydrological discharge rate and primarily representing the Russian Lena. Mountainous, high solute and tundra sources are all simulated, and they meet up at several points between soil and delta process reactors. Turnover rates are parameterized beginning with extrapolated coastal values imposed along a limited tributary network, with connections between different terrestrial sub-ecologies. Temporal variation of our total dissolved matter most closely resembles the observations when we focus on the restricted removal and low initial carbon loads, suggesting relatively slow transformation along the water course. Thus, channel combinations and mixing must play a dominant role. Nevertheless, microbial and photochemical losses help determine the final concentrations for most species. Chemical evolution is distinct for the various functionalities, with special contributions from pre- and post-reactivity in soil and delta waters. Several functions are combined linearly to represent the collective chromophoric dissolved matter, characterized here by its absorption. Tributaries carry the signature of lignin phenols to segregate tundra versus taiga sources, and special attention is paid to the early then marine behaviors of low molecular weight volatiles. Heteropolycondensates comprise the largest percentage of reactive carbon in our simulations due to recombination/accumulation, and they tend to be preeminent at the mouth. Outlet concentrations of individual structures such as amino acids and absorbers lie above threshold values for biophysical influence, on the monolayer and light attenuation. The extent of coastal spreading is examined through targeted regional box modeling, relying on salinity and color for calibration. In some cases, plumes reach the scale of peripheral arctic seas, and amplification is expected during upcoming decades. Conclusions are mapped from the Lena to other boreal discharges, and future research questions are outlined regarding the bonding type versus mass release as permafrost degrades. Dynamic aqueous organic coupling is recommended for polar system models, from headwaters to coastal diluent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discovering a reaction–diffusion model for Alzheimer’s disease by combining PINNs with symbolic regression

Misfolded tau proteins play a critical role in the progression and pathology of Alzheimer's disease. Recent studies suggest that the spatio-temporal pattern of misfolded tau follows a reaction-diffusion type equation. However, the precise mathematical model and parameters that characterize the progression of misfolded protein across the brain remain incompletely understood. Here, we use deep learning and artificial intelligence to discover a mathematical model for the progression of Alzheimer's disease using longitudinal tau positron emission tomography from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database. Specifically, we integrate physics informed neural networks (PINNs) and symbolic regression to discover a reaction-diffusion type partial differential equation for tau protein misfolding and spreading. First, we demonstrate the potential of our model and parameter discovery on synthetic data. Then, we apply our method to discover the best model and parameters to explain tau imaging data from 46 individuals who are likely to develop Alzheimer's disease and 30 healthy controls. Our symbolic regression discovers different misfolding models f(c) for two groups, with a faster misfolding for the Alzheimer's group, f(c) = 0.23c 3 – 1.34c 2 + 1.11c, than for the healthy control group, f(c) = –c 3 + 0.62c 2 + 0.39c. Our results suggest that PINNs, supplemented by symbolic regression, can discover a reaction-diffusion type model to explain misfolded tau protein concentrations in Alzheimer's disease. Furthermore, we expect our study to be the starting point for a more holistic analysis to provide image-based technologies for early diagnosis, and ideally early treatment of neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease and possibly other misfolding-protein based neurodegenerative disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biomass-burning smoke's properties and its interactions with marine stratocumulus clouds in WRF-CAM5 and southeastern Atlantic field campaigns

Abstract. A large part of the uncertainty in climate projections comes from uncertain aerosol properties and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as the difficulty in remotely sensing them. The southeastern Atlantic functions as a natural laboratory to study biomass-burning smoke and to constrain this uncertainty. We address these gaps by comparing the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry Community Atmosphere Model (WRF-CAM5) to the multi-campaign observations ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS), CLARIFY (CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing), and LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) in the southeastern Atlantic in August 2017 to evaluate a large range of the model's aerosol chemical properties, size distributions, processes, and transport, as well as aerosol–cloud interactions. Overall, while WRF-CAM5 is able to represent smoke properties and transport, some key discrepancies highlight the need for further analysis. Observations of smoke composition show an overall decrease in aerosol mean diameter as smoke ages over 4–12 d, while the model lacks this trend. A decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon (BC), OA:BC, and the OA mass to carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio, OA:CO, suggests that the model is missing processes that selectively remove OA from the particle phase, such as photolysis and heterogeneous aerosol chemistry. A large (factor of ∼2.5) enhancement in sulfate from the free troposphere (FT) to the boundary layer (BL) in observations is not present in the model, pointing to the importance of properly representing secondary sulfate aerosol formation from marine dimethyl sulfide and gaseous SO2 smoke emissions. The model shows a persistent overprediction of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL), especially for clean conditions, which multiple pieces of evidence link to weaker aerosol removal in the modeled MBL than reality. This evidence includes several model features, such as not representing observed shifts towards smaller aerosol diameters, inaccurate concentration ratios of carbon monoxide and black carbon, underprediction of heavy rain events, and little evidence of persistent biases in modeled entrainment. The average below-cloud aerosol activation fraction (NCLD/NAER) remains relatively constant in WRF-CAM5 between field campaigns (∼0.65), while it decreases substantially in observations from ORACLES (∼0.78) to CLARIFY (∼0.5), which could be due to the model misrepresentation of clean aerosol conditions. WRF-CAM5 also overshoots an observed upper limit on liquid cloud droplet concentration around NCLD= 400–500 cm−3 and overpredicts the spread in NCLD. This could be related to the model often drastically overestimating the strength of boundary layer vertical turbulence by up to a factor of 10. We expect these results to motivate similar evaluations of other modeling systems and promote model development to reduce critical uncertainties in climate simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive model tuning studies for non-invasive diagnostics and feedback control of plasma wakefield acceleration at FACET-II

Beam-driven plasma wakefield acceleration (PWFA) achieves the same energy gain in a single meter, for which conventional accelerators require several kilometers, however much work is still required to match the beam quality of conventional accelerators. The PWFA processes to be studied at the FACET-II facility will utilize extremely short (down to a few fs) high energy (10 GeV), high charge (few nC) electron and eventually positron bunches. The PWFA process is extremely sensitive to the detailed longitudinal current profiles of these bunches and it would be of great benefit to have precise measurement and control of these profiles. We present an adaptive model tuning technique for FACET-II to adaptively tune online models based on real time accelerator and beam data to continuously provide a non-invasive diagnostic which predicts the longitudinal phase space (LPS) of extremely short and highly compressed electron beams, which otherwise require destructive X-band transverse deflecting cavity (XTCAV)-based measurements. Based on simulation studies, our method has the potential for: (1). The development of a non-invasive longitudinal phase space diagnostic by adaptively tuning models based on non-invasive measurements such as energy spread spectra which could be recorded at all of the bunch compressors in the facility. (2). Utilize these diagnostic to perform model-independent feedback-based to achieve desired longitudinal phase space distributions. (3). Utilize the model-independent feedback approach to maximize energy gain while minimizing emittance growth and energy gain variance of the PWFA process by tuning accelerator parameters, while monitoring what longitudinal phase space the algorithm has found, information that will be useful for further analytical and simulation studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO 2 enrichment experiment

Multi-factor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), yet to date such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 TBMs to the multi-factor Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multi-factor experiments can be used to constrain models, and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above-ground net primary productivity (range: 31-390 g C m -2 yr -1 ). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly in respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against single-factors was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the nitrogen cycle models, nitrogen availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they over-estimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO 2 -induced water savings to extend growing season length. Observed interactive (CO 2 x warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology and species composition. Since the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. Finally, we outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.

Martin Turbet↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling multiple scattering transient of an ultrashort laser pulse by spherical particles

The multiple scattering of an ultrashort laser pulse by a turbid dispersive medium (namely a cloud of bubbles in water) is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The theory of Gouesbet and Gréhan (2000) is used to derive an energetic model of the scattering transient. It is shown that the spreading and extinction of the pulse can be decoupled from the transient of scattering, which allows to describe each phenomenon individually. The transient of scattering is modeled with the Lorenz-Mie Theory and thus is also valid for a relative refractive index lower than one, contrary to the Debye series expansion which does not converge close to the critical angle. This is made possible after the introduction of a new physical object, the Scattering Impulse Response Function (SIRF) which allows to detect the different modes of scattering transient, in time and direction. Here the present approach is more generic, as it enables to simulate clouds of air bubbles in water, which was not possible previously. Two different approaches are proposed within the Monte Carlo framework. The first is a pure Monte Carlo approach where the delay due to the scattering is randomly drawn at each event, while the second is based on the transport of the whole scattering signal. They are both embedded in the Monte Carlo code Scatter3D. Both models produce equivalent trends and are validated against published numerical results. They are then applied to the multiple scattering of ultra short pulse by a cloud of bubble in water in the forward direction. The pulse spread due to the propagation in water is computed for a wide range of traveled distances and pulse durations, and the optimal pulse duration is given to minimize the pulse spread at a given distance. The main result is that the scattered photons exit the turbid medium earlier than the ballistic photons and produce a double peak related to the refraction in the bubble. This demonstrates the possibility to develop new diagnostics to characterize dynamic bubbly flows.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1988

Formation of curved seafloor fabric by changes in rift propagation velocity and spreading rate - Application to the 95.5 deg W Galapagos propagator

Possible rigid plate models and shear models for the formation of curved seafloor lineaments by rift propagation are investigated and are applied to the Galapagos propagation rift system at 95 deg W. It is shown that the geometry noted at the Galapagos can result from either rift propagation acceleration or a spreading rate decrease during the last few hundred thousand years. It is postulated that the reverse curvature could result from either deceleration of rift propagation or an increase in spreading rate. The data interpreted as requiring a shear zone are found to be equally consistent with two distinct models based on rigid plate tectonics.

Acton, Gary↗
NASA NTRS1989

The effects of radiative heat loss on microgravity flame spread

The effect of radiative heat loss from the surface of a solid material burning in a zero gravity environment in an opposed flow is studied through the use of a numerical model. Radiative heat loss is found to decrease the flame spread rate, the boundary layer thickness, and pyrolysis lengths. Blowoff extinction is predicted to occur at slower opposesd flow velocities than would occur if the radiative loss is not present. The radiative heat fluxes are comparable to the conduction fluxes, indicating the significance of the surface energy loss.

Fakheri, Ahmad↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Low Intensity Fires: Lessons Learned from 2012 RxCADRE

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗