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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2020

Forecasting Rates of Volcanic Activity on Terrestrial Exoplanets and Implications for Cryovolcanic Activity on Extrasolar Ocean Worlds

Like the planets and moons in our solar system, the surfaces of terrestrial exoplanets may be shaped by volcanic activity. The magnitudes and rates of volcanic activity on terrestrial exoplanets will be intimately linked to their sizes and internal heating rates and can either facilitate or preclude the existence of habitable environments. In order to place bounds on the potential for such activity, we estimate total internal heating rates for 53 exoplanets with masses and radii up to∼8M⊕and 2R⊕, respectively, assuming that internal heating is drawn from both radiogenic and tidal sources. We then compare these internal heating rates to those of the planets and moons in our solar system in an attempt to constrain the expected rates of volcanic activity on these extrasolar worlds. We find that all 53 of the exoplanets surveyed are likely to have volcanic activity at their surfaces, and that at least 26% of these planets may be extrasolar ocean worlds. The majority of these ocean worlds may be similar in structure to the icy moons of the giant planets, having internal oceans beneath layers of surface ice. If so, these planets may exhibit cryovolcanism (i.e., icy volcanism)at their surfaces. Recent studies have shown that extrasolar volcanism could be detected by high-resolution spectrographs on existing ground-based telescopes. In the case of planets with densities and/or effective temperatures that are consistent with H2O-rich compositions, spectral identification of excess water vapor and other molecules that are explosively vented into space during cryovolcanic eruptions could serve as a way to infer the presence of subsurface oceans, and therefore indirectly assess their habitability. Considering the implications for habitability, our results suggest that continued characterization of terrestrial exoplanets in terms of their potential for volcanic activity should be a priority in the coming years.

Lynnae C Quick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Carbon Properties in Coastal Waters with a New Observing System Testbed

Large rainfall events over land can lead to a substantial flux of carbon and nutrients to estuaries and the coastal ocean. In the mid-Atlantic on the east coast of North America (35° - 42° N), these events often happen due to tropical storm activity as well as less predictable anomalously large midlatitude storms or abrupt spring snow melt runoff. Storms can directly impact the coastal carbon cycle via export of carbon from land to sea, while also stimulating phytoplankton production due to the influx of nutrients to the coastal ocean. To assess the impact of high precipitation and river flow events on the coastal carbon cycle, we have integrated multiple observing platforms in an analytical framework to dynamically observe carbon-related properties. The new observing system testbed (NOS-T) allows for an estimate of phytoplankton and organic carbon stocks in the surface ocean, with a goal of providing near real time analytical capability. A case study of high river discharge in the mid-Atlantic in the summer and fall of 2018 and 2021 were used to examine how riverine carbon manifests along the land-estuary-ocean continuum particularly in Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay was chosen as the study site because of long term monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program and a robust and well-developed regional biogeochemical modeling system, the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), that is publicly available. There is also new capability in Chesapeake Bay to combine hyperspectral radiometric data from the Aerosol Robotic Network site that is online in 2022 with in-water observations of optical properties. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG data set was used to establish triggering criteria for storm carbon flux observation. USGS and in-water carbon data were used to establish statistical models to estimate the mass flux of organic carbon into Chesapeake Bay using measured river discharge. The year 2018 was examined as there was record rainfall and near record river flow in the late summer. The CBEFS modeling was compared with in-water estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to assess the model’s ability to capture storm fluxes of carbon to the ecosystem. Multiple satellite platforms were also used to assess how remote sensing using passive Earth orbiting sensors can be used to observe carbon in this complex coastal region. A set of recommendations have been established to improve sensing capability to measure aquatic carbon during storm events. A unique challenge in these dynamic inland waters is how rapidly carbon fluxes can evolve in space and time, with many sources contributing to the water leaving reflectance that satellites can observe. To improve our ability to quantify carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time, a suite of satellite sensors and high-resolution modeling capability is needed, all supplemented by in situ monitoring. Future inclusion of in-water observations that would be deployed when the system reaches triggering criteria, as well as taskable orbital instruments, will improve estimates of ocean carbon properties and provide the ability to calculate major carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time following episodic storm events.

land-ocean continuum↗

NASA NTRS1998

Mapping the Distribution of Wildfire Fuels Using AVIRIS in the Santa Monica Mountains

Catastrophic wildfires, such as the 1990 Painted Cave Fire in Santa Barbara or Oakland fire of 1991, attest to the destructive potential of fire in the wildland/urban interface. For example, during the Painted Cave Fire, 673 structures were consumed over a period of only six hours at an estimated cost of 250 million dollars (Gomes et al., 1993). One of the primary sources of fuels is chaparral, which consists of plant species that are adapted to frequent fires and may actually promote its ignition and spread of through volatile organic compounds in foliage. As one of the most widely distributed plant communities in Southern California, and one of the most common vegetation types along the wildland urban interface, chaparral represents one of the greatest sources of wildfire hazard in the region. An ongoing NASA funded research project was initiated in 1994 to study the potential of AVIRIS for mapping wildfire fuel properties in Southern California chaparral. The project was initiated in the Santa Monica Mountains, an east-west trending range in western Los Angeles County that has experienced extremely high fire frequencies over the past 70 years. The Santa Monica Mountains were selected because they exemplify many of the problems facing the southwest, forming a complex mosaic of land ownership intermixed with a diversity of chaparral age classes and fuel loads. Furthermore, the area has a wide diversity of chaparral community types and a rich background in supporting geographic information including fire history, soils and topography. Recent fires in the Santa Monica Mountains, including several in 1993 and the Calabasas fire of 1996 attest to the active fire regime present in the area. The long term objectives of this project are to improve existing maps of wildland fuel properties in the area, link AVIRIS derived products to fuel models under development for the region, then predict fire hazard through models that simulate fire spread. In this paper, we describe the AVIRIS derived products we are developing to map wildland fuels.

Roberts, Dar↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-energy neutrino emission from magnetized jets of rapidly rotating protomagnetars

ABSTRACT Relativistic jets originating from protomagnetar central engines can lead to long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and are considered potential sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays and secondary neutrinos. We explore the propagation of such jets through a broad range of progenitors, from stars which have shed their envelopes to supergiants which have not. We use a semi-analytical spin-down model for the strongly magnetized and rapidly rotating protoneutron star (PNS) to investigate the role of central engine properties such as the surface dipole field strength, initial rotation period, and jet opening angle on the interactions and dynamical evolution of the jet-cocoon system. With this model, we determine the properties of the relativistic jet, the mildly relativistic cocoon, and the collimation shock in terms of system parameters such as the time-dependent jet luminosity, injection angle, and density profile of the stellar medium. We also analyse the criteria for a successful jet breakout, the maximum energy that can be deposited into the cocoon by the relativistic jet, and structural stability of the magnetized outflow relative to local instabilities. Lastly, we compute the high-energy neutrino emission as these magnetized outflows burrow through their progenitors. Precursor neutrinos from successful GRB jets are unlikely to be detected by IceCube, which is consistent with the results of previous works. On the other hand, we find that high-energy neutrinos may be produced for extended progenitors like blue and red supergiants, and we estimate the detectability of neutrinos with next generation detectors such as IceCube-Gen2.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Oil in Alaska North Slope Gas Hydrate Reservoir: Micro-CT and Flow Simulation Insights into Permeability

Gas hydrate-bearing sands on the Alaska North Slope (ANS) host minor volumes of crude oil whose impact on formation permeability has never been quantified relative to a gas hydrate reservoir system. Here, we combine in situ pressure-core microcomputed-tomography (μ-CT), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), gas-chromatography–mass-spectrometry (GC–MS), scanning-electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), and Stokes-flow simulation to (i) quantify oil saturation, (ii) infer its source, and (iii) evaluate its influence on permeability after gas-hydrate dissociation. μ-CT and SEM-EDS imaging identify the host sediment as silty, with some grain-coating clay present. Eight representative 3003-voxel subvolumes extracted from a preserved pressure core (Core 15P-3c, from the B1 sand (unit B), HYDRATE 02 Geo Data Well (GDW), 886.96–887.29 m measured depth, MD) exhibit porosities of 0.34–0.37 and an average oil saturation of 0.09 ± 0.03, in comparison to an independent TGA-based estimate of 0.16. GC-MS fingerprints obtained from an adjacent depressurized core (Core 17P-1, 891.37–891.44 m MD), together with oil pore habit revealed by μ-CT, suggest that the oil is partly native but also includes contributions from mineral oil-based drilling fluid contamination. Further analysis of oil–porewater interactions and flushing tests confirms that native oil saturation in the analyzed samples ranges from 0.04 to 0.08 with an average of approximately 0.06, and the oil is highly immobile. Flow simulations demonstrate that the native oil saturation of ≈0.06 reduces permeability by approximately 50% due to both pore blockage and increased flow-path tortuosity. These findings reveal the potential presence of native oil within the ANS gas hydrate reservoir and suggest that future simulation models may need to account for its impact on permeability to improve long-term performance predictions of gas and water production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Electrification Analysis: The Role of the U.S. Power Grid for Sustainable Transportation

This project attempts to quantify the size of electric generation for the entire nation to transition from a fossil fuel based transportation sector to a zero GHG emission-based energy source. The scope of this analysis is limited to decarbonizing the transportation sector, leaving the remaining sectors, such as power (for those that are still fossil based), industry, and building sectors, for later phases of study. The study year for this analysis is 2050, with expected escalation in transportation services and naturally occurring evolutions in the electric power sector and the entire economy. This analysis uses the projections of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2020) Reference Case for study year 2050 [EIA/AEO2020] as a base-case. The transportation sector is disaggregated by the following modes and classes: (1) on-road (divided into light-duty, medium-duty, heavy-duty vehicles), (2) aviation, (3) maritime, and (4) rail. The decarbonization case was based on only 2 pathways: (1) electrification of on-road transportation except for 30% of heavy-duty vehicles, and (2) power-to-liquid for the remaining transportation modes. The study estimated for 11 US regions what the additional wind and storage capacities requirements are to replace the fossil-based fuels with renewable wind capacity. Considered were the utilization of the existing idle capacity particularly during the load valley at night and any additional new generation capacity in EIA projections for the reference case. To balance the additional wind capacity required significant energy storage capabilities which were estimated in terms of power capacity (GW) and energy capacity (GWh). The paper further characterizes the energy requirements by a relation of power capacity to duration, allowing the analyst to gain insights into what the best technology portfolio might be to meet the new balancing or flexibility needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring filamentous fungi depolymerization of corn stover in the context bioenergy queuing operations

Recalcitrance of lignocellulosic feedstocks to depolymerization is a significant barrier for bioenergy production approaches that require conversion of monomeric carbohydrates to renewable energy sources. This study assesses how low-cost modifications in the feedstock supply chain can be transformed into targeted pretreatments in the context of the entire bioenergy supply chain. The aim of this research is to overcome the physiochemical barriers in corn stover that necessitate increased severity in conversion in terms of chemical loading, temperature, and residence time. Corn stover samples were inoculated with a selective (Ceriporiopsis subvermispora) and non-selective (Phaenarochaete chrysosporium) lignin degrading filamentous fungal strains, then stored aerobically to determine the working envelope for fungal pretreatment to achieve lignin degradation. Dry matter loss and gross chemical makeup of corn stover varied by the length of treatment (2 and 4 weeks) and by the moisture content of the treated corn stover samples (40 and 60%, wet basis). Dry matter loss in P. chrysosporium inoculated biomass was elevated compared to the C. subvermispora inoculated biomass; however, treatment also induced additional chemical composition changes suggestive of depolymerization. Scanning electron microscope images reveal hyphae attached within cell lumen and suggest structural changes within P. chrysosporium treated corn stover after 60% moisture storage. These results highlight that fungal treatment approaches must balance loss of convertible material with the potential for reduction in recalcitrance. Techno-economic assessment (TEA) of fungal pretreatment in a short-term queuing system indicated the viability of this approach compared to conventional queuing operations. The total queuing system cost was estimated at $\$$1.65/tonne of biomass stored. After applying the credit of $\$$1.48/tonne from energy savings in the conversion phase using fungal pretreated biomass, the total system cost was $0.80 lower than traditional biomass queueing approach. While the TEA results suggested that treating biomass with C. subvermispora is the most economically viable storage method in the designed fungal-assisted queuing system, future research should focus on additional fungal depolymerization such as those observed in the P. chrysosporium inoculated biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-dimensional Data-driven Energy optimization for Multi-Modal Transit Agencies (HD-EMMA) (Final Technical Report)

Public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. Electric vehicles (EVs) can have a much lower environmental impact than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), especially in urban areas. Unfortunately, EVs are also much more expensive than ICEVs. As a result, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of transit vehicles, consisting of EVs, hybrids (HEVs), and ICEVs. Transit agencies that operate such mixed fleets of vehicles face a challenging optimization problem: these agencies need to decide which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips. Since the advantage of EVs over ICEVs varies depending on the route and time of day (e.g., the benefit of EVs is higher in slower traffic with frequent stops and lower on highways), the assignment can have a significant effect on energy use and, hence, environmental impact. Through this project, we have developed reference data about energy collections and constructed a set of machine learning models that can accurately predict the energy consumption for the whole fleet at the level of each trip. We have used these models to develop a scheduling and assignment strategy that can rotate the different vehicle types across the transit agencies’ routes. The optimization algorithm ensures that the vehicles are matched to trips considering weather patterns, expected congestion, and road gradients to minimize the overall energy usage. We list the key observations from our project for other practitioners below. Details are available in the report, and the list of source code and our publications are included in the appendix. 1. We have demonstrated the feasibility of collecting, merging and analyzing large volumes of high-resolution real-world telemetry data from a mixed vehicle fleet. To mitigate the inherent noise of the recorded GPS points, the team developed an algorithm that filters data and maps the points onto a street. The algorithm considers previous and subsequent location measurements and different characteristics of nearby streets to determine how likely the vehicle travels on them. Then, the team segmented the time series into disjoint contiguous samples based on adjacent road segments and repeated the outlier detection and removal. For each data point, the team added features corresponding to elevation changes within the samples, weather features, such as temperature, and traffic data, such as speed ratio between actual speed and free-flow speed. 2. We have developed two forms of machine learning models that be used to understand and analyze the energy operations of a mixed vehicle transit fleet. The micro prediction model provides estimates of instantaneous energy prediction for all types of buses (diesel, hybrid, and electric). Such a model is important in evaluating the energy impacts of real-time bus operation strategies, but it is challenging due to diversified driving cycles of transit buses. The model can help the drivers understand the impact of their driving behaviors and short-term congestions. The macro prediction models estimate average energy consumption across the whole trip considering the features: distance traveled, various road-type features, elevation change, day of the week, time of day, various weather features (temperature, humidity, etc.), and traffic features (speed ratio and jam factor). 3. We have demonstrated that it is possible to transfer the machine learning models we have developed in this project to other teams and cities by using inductive transfer learning. We also showed that the performance of the macro energy prediction models can be improved using a multi-task learning approach where the learning parameters are shared between the models being developed for different vehicle types. The advantage of this approach is improved learning performance as the models can exploit common spatio-temporal and environmental characteristics. 4. Finally, we have developed trip and vehicle assignment and scheduling algorithms that use the energy prediction models and develop a trip to vehicle type (diesel, electric, hybrid) assignment for the whole operation to reduce overall emissions and cost. We have shown through simulations that the proposed algorithms can save $\$$ 48,910 in energy costs and 175 metric tons of CO 2 emission annually for CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Large Methane Emissions From the Pantanal During Rising Water‐Levels Revealed by Regularly Measured Lower Troposphere CH 4 Profiles

Abstract The Pantanal region of Brazil is the largest seasonally flooded tropical grassland and, according to local chamber measurements, a substantial CH 4 source. CH 4 emissions from wetlands have recently become of heightened interest because global atmospheric 13 CH 4 data indicate they may contribute to the resumption of atmospheric CH 4 growth since 2007. We have regularly measured vertical atmospheric profiles for 2 years in the center of the Pantanal with the objectives to obtain an estimate of CH 4 emissions using an atmospheric approach, and provide information about flux seasonality and its relation to controlling factors. Boundary layer‐free troposphere differences observed in the Pantanal are large compared to other wetlands. Total emissions based on a planetary boundary layer budgeting technique are 2.0–2.8 TgCH 4 yr −1 (maximum flux ∼0.4 gCH 4 m −2 d −1 ) while those based on a Bayesian inversion using an atmospheric transport model are ∼3.3 TgCH 4 yr −1 . Compared to recent estimates for Amazonia (∼41 ± 3 TgCH 4 yr −1 , maximum flux ∼0.3 gCH 4 m −2 d −1 ) these emissions are not that large. Our Pantanal data suggest a clear flux seasonality with CH 4 being released in large amounts just after water levels begin to rise again after minimum levels have been reached. CH 4 emissions decline substantially once the maximum water level has been reached. While predictions with prognostic wetland CH 4 emission models agree well with the magnitude of the fluxes, they disagree with the phasing. Our approach shows promise for detecting and understanding longer‐term trends in CH 4 emissions and the potential for future wetlands CH 4 emissions climate feedbacks.

Gloor, M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

From Deposition to Encapsulation: Roll-to-roll manufacturing of organic light emitting devices for lighting (Final Report)

Organic light emitting devices (OLEDs) are promising solid state light sources due to their high efficiency, high color quality and flexible form factors. The key to enable low cost OLED lighting, is to rapidly fabricate thin film organic layers on a continuous flexible roll, called R2R processing. This project aims to investigate the feasibility of mass production of OLED lighting using the R2R process, from deposition to encapsulation. A high efficiency white OLED is fabricated on 10 cm-wide substrate rolls in a pilot R2R tool comprising of two different organic deposition: vacuum thermal evaporation (VTE) and organic vapor phase deposition (OVPD). A high quality encapsulation process to package OLEDs is demonstrated using an atomic layer deposition tool integrated to the R2R system without air exposure. The method to achieve ultrahigh deposition rates required by R2R processing is demonstrated by OVPD. Uniform organic semiconductor thin films grown by OVPD at rates as high as 50 Å/s are achieved. A comprehensive numerical model that is capable of simulating complex, multilayer WOLED structures is developed to provide an alternative to experimental iterations of OLED design and tests. A cost estimate on the R2R production of WOLEDs for lighting is developed. Assuming a WOLED luminance of 10 klm/m 2 , the cost of a WOLED light engine is anticipated to be $\$ 12.5$ /klm. With incremental reduction in material and driver costs and improved luminance, the cost of WOLED lighting can be reduced to $\$ 6.3$ /klm in the near term. These findings suggest OLED lighting can be volume manufactured by R2R vapor deposition methods with much reduced costs compared to current batch processing methods, potentially positioning WOLEDs for use in numerous premium lighting applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Measurement of Residual Flexibility for Substructures Having Prominent Flexible Interfaces

Verification of a dynamic model of a constrained structure requires a modal survey test of the physical structure and subsequent modification of the model to obtain the best agreement possible with test data. Constrained-boundary or fixed-base testing has historically been the most common approach for verifying constrained mathematical models, since the boundary conditions of the test article are designed to match the actual constraints in service. However, there are difficulties involved with fixed-base testing, in some cases making the approach impractical. It is not possible to conduct a truly fixed-base test due to coupling between the test article and the fixture. In addition, it is often difficult to accurately simulate the actual boundary constraints, and the cost of designing and constructing the fixture may be prohibitive. For use when fixed-base testing proves impractical or undesirable, alternate free-boundary test methods have been investigated, including the residual flexibility technique. The residual flexibility approach has been treated analytically in considerable detail and has had limited frequency response measurements for the method. This concern is well-justified for a number of reasons. First, residual flexibilities are very small numbers, typically on the order of 1.0E-6 in/lb for translational diagonal terms, and orders of magnitude smaller for off-diagonal values. This poses difficulty in obtaining accurate and noise-free measurements, especially for points removed from the excitation source. A second difficulty encountered in residual measurements lies in obtaining a clean residual function in the process of subtracting synthesized modal data from a measured response function. Inaccuracies occur since modes are not subtracted exactly, but only to the accuracy of the curve fits for each mode; these errors are compounded with increasing distance from the excitation point. In this paper, the residual flexibility method is applied to a simple structure in both test and analysis. Measured and predicted residual functions are compared, and regions of poor data in the measured curves are described. It is found that for accurate residual measurements, frequency response functions having prominent stiffness lines in the acceleration/force format are needed. The lack of such stiffness lines increases measurement errors. Interface drive point frequency respose functions for shuttle orbiter payloads exhibit dominant stiffness lines, making the residual test approach a good candidate for payload modal tests when constrained tests are inappropriate. Difficulties in extracting a residual flexibility value from noisy test data are discussed. It is shown that use of a weighted second order least-squares curve fit of the measured residual function allows identification of residual flexibility that compares very well with predictions for the simple structure. This approach also provides an estimate of second order residual mass effects.

Tinker, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aircraft System Noise Assessment of the NASA D8 Subsonic Transport Concept

Avehicle-level noise assessment has been performed for theNASAD8 concept aircraft (ND8) in the NASA Advanced Air Transport Technology Project portfolio. The NASA research-level Aircraft NOise Prediction Program (ANOPP-Research) was used to predict the noise from each source component on the ND8 to build up a noise estimate for the full aircraft. The propulsion airframe aeroacoustic (PAA) effects of the ND8, namely boundary layer ingestion (BLI) with its influence on fan noise, and the noise shielding, reflection, and diffraction mechanisms of the unconventional airframe, were empirically modeled using experimental data. Noise reduction technologies appropriate to the 2025-2035 time frame were included in this study. Including all technologies and PAA effects, the ND8 is predicted to have a cumulative margin to the Stage 4 certification metric of only 7.4 EPNdB. Boundary layer ingestion is predicted to have a detrimental impact on cumulative noise levels on the order of 15 EPNdB. Fan noise is seen to be the primary noise source at all three certification points, even if the BLI noise impact could be entirely suppressed. The impact of engine noise shielding by the airframe is limited by a lack of aft shielding and the presence of horizontal tail reflections in the aft direction. The physical constraint on engine size by the pi-tail is seen as a potential barrier to engine noise reduction through the corresponding limitation on fan bypass ratio. Mildly reduced climb performance (compared to similar reference aircraft) does not provide any benefit through increased noise propagation distance. If the boundary layer ingestion noise penalty could be suppressed such that BLI would have no effect on noise, the cumulative margin to Stage 4 would increase to 22.4 EPNdB, still below the NASA Mid Term goal of 32-42 EPNdB.

Clark, Ian A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Economic and operational investigation of CO 2 sequestration through enhanced oil recovery in unconventional reservoirs in Colorado, USA

The ongoing CCUS commercial projects are highly relied on the support of government incentives due to massive capital investment. Here, this study analyzes the economics of carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects, shows a state-wide CCUS deployment exercise, followed by simulation results of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) based CO 2 storage in unconventional reservoirs. The comprehensive economic analysis of capture, transportation, sequestration costs, enhanced 45Q tax credits, and EOR revenue implies the practicality of CO 2 -EOR to offset the high CCUS costs. With the economics understanding, we study the top CO 2 sources, existing CO 2 pipelines, and sequestration sinks in the state of Colorado, USA. This paper next presents results from EOR simulation in one section of the unconventional Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin Niobrara and Codell reservoirs. The simulation model is based on a geological static model, incorporated with hydraulic fracture stimulation, history matched to production, and calibrated to the microseismic and time-lapse surface seismic data. The CO 2 -EOR simulation results show that oil production can be increased and more CO 2 stored with: a longer primary production period; the presence of a shut-in period; higher injection rates; and multi-well injectors. The modeling results show that about 7–10 Mscf of CO 2 will be stored when recovering 1 stb of EOR oil. By adding the enhanced oil revenue and the carbon credits together, it is estimated that the most economic case can generate $\$13$ MM when oil price is assumed to be $\$80$/stb, and the EOR oil revenue is 3.4 times greater than that generated from 45Q incentives. It corresponds to the scenario that a five-year primary production is followed by CO 2 injection into four wells with the sequence of injection (4 MMscf/day for 6 months), shut-in (6 months) and production (12 months). The best practices in this study will provide valuable insights for similar CCUS projects in other unconventional fields. Furthermore, this study defines a term named “Carbon Neutrality Index (CNI)” by comparing the amount of CO 2 stored with that burned by EOR oil. The CNI value of 0 indicates the enhanced oil is carbon neutral; a negative CNI value implies there is a net reduction in carbon emission. The 4-year huff-n-puff (HnP) simulation leads to a positive CNI value, indicating that the EOR oil generated in this process is not carbon neutral yet.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical needs to close monitoring gaps in pan-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions

Global wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). The FLUXNET-CH 4 synthesis initiative has established a global network of flux tower infrastructure, offering valuable data products and fostering a dedicated community for the measurement and analysis of methane flux data. Existing studies using the FLUXNET-CH 4 Community Product v1.0 have provided invaluable insights into the drivers of ecosystem-to-regional spatial patterns and daily-to-decadal temporal dynamics in temperate, boreal, and Arctic climate regions. However, as the wetland CH 4 monitoring network grows, there is a critical knowledge gap about where new monitoring infrastructure ought to be located to improve understanding of the global wetland CH 4 budget. Here we address this gap with a spatial representativeness analysis at existing and hypothetical observation sites, using 16 process-based wetland biogeochemistry models and machine learning. We find that, in addition to eddy covariance monitoring sites, existing chamber sites are important complements, especially over high latitudes and the tropics. Furthermore, expanding the current monitoring network for wetland CH 4 emissions should prioritize, first, tropical and second, sub-tropical semi-arid wetland regions. Considering those new hypothetical wetland sites from tropical and semi-arid climate zones could significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions and reduce bias by 79% (from 76 to 16 TgCH 4 y -1 ), compared with using solely existing monitoring networks. Our study thus demonstrates an approach for long-term strategic expansion of flux observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2016

Phase-Retrieval Uncertainty Estimation and Algorithm Comparison for the JWST-ISIM Test Campaign

Phase retrieval, the process of determining the exitpupil wavefront of an optical instrument from image-plane intensity measurements, is the baseline methodology for characterizing the wavefront for the suite of science instruments (SIs) in the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). JWST is a large, infrared space telescope with a 6.5-meter diameter primary mirror. JWST is currently NASA's flagship mission and will be the premier space observatory of the next decade. ISIM contains four optical benches with nine unique instruments, including redundancies. ISIM was characterized at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in Greenbelt, MD in a series of cryogenic vacuum tests using a telescope simulator. During these tests, phase-retrieval algorithms were used to characterize the instruments. The objective of this paper is to describe the Monte-Carlo simulations that were used to establish uncertainties (i.e., error bars) for the wavefronts of the various instruments in ISIM. Multiple retrieval algorithms were used in the analysis of ISIM phase-retrieval focus-sweep data, including an iterativetransform algorithm and a nonlinear optimization algorithm. These algorithms emphasize the recovery of numerous optical parameters, including low-order wavefront composition described by Zernike polynomial terms and high-order wavefront described by a point-by-point map, location of instrument best focus, focal ratio, exit-pupil amplitude, the morphology of any extended object, and optical jitter. The secondary objective of this paper is to report on the relative accuracies of these algorithms for the ISIM instrument tests, and a comparison of their computational complexity and their performance on central and graphical processing unit clusters. From a phase-retrieval perspective, the ISIM test campaign includes a variety of source illumination bandwidths, various image-plane sampling criteria above and below the Nyquist- Shannon critical sampling value, various extended object sizes, and several other impactful effects.

Design Analysis↗

NASA NTRS1999

Constructing Synoptic Maps of Stratospheric Column Ozone from HALOE, SAGE and Balloonsonde Data Using Potential Vorticity Isentropic Coordinate Transformations

In this study we utilize potential vorticity - isentropic (PVI) coordinate transformations as a means of combining ozone data from different sources to construct daily, synthetic three-dimensional ozone fields. This methodology has been used successfully to reconstruct ozone maps in particular regions from aircraft data over the period of the aircraft campaign. We expand this method to create high-resolution daily global maps of profile ozone data, particularly in the lower stratosphere, where high-resolution ozone data are sparse. Ozone climatologies in PVI-space are constructed from satellite-based SAGE II and UARS/HALOE data, both of which-use solar occultation techniques to make high vertical resolution ozone profile measurements, but with low spatial resolution. A climatology from ground-based balloonsonde data is also created. The climatologies are used to establish the relationship between ozone and dynamical variability, which is defined by the potential vorticity (in the form of equivalent latitude) and potential temperature fields. Once a PVI climatology has been created from data taken by one or more instruments, high-resolution daily profile ozone field estimates are constructed based solely on the PVI fields, which are available on a daily basis from NCEP analysis. These profile ozone maps could be used for a variety of applications, including use in conjunction with total ozone maps to create a daily tropospheric ozone product, as input to forecast models, or as a tool for validating independent ozone measurements when correlative data are not available. This technique is limited to regions where the ozone is a long-term tracer and the flow is adiabatic. We evaluate the internal consistency of the technique by transforming the ozone back to physical space and comparing to the original profiles. Biases in the long-term average of the differences are used to identify regions where the technique is consistently introducing errors. Initial results show the technique is useful in the lower stratosphere at most latitudes throughout the year,and in the winter hemisphere in the middle stratosphere. The results are problematic in the summer hemisphere middle stratosphere due to increased ozone photochemistry and weak PV gradients. Alternate techniques in these regions will be discussed. An additional limitation is the quality and resolution of the meteorological data.

Hollandsworth, Stacey M.↗