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At least 739 records · Page 41

Verification and Validation of Elastodynamic Simulation Software for Aerospace Research

Physics-based simulation of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) inspection can help to advance the inspectability and reliability of mechanical systems. However, NDE simulations applicable to non-idealized mechanical components often require large compute domains and long run times. This has prompted development of custom NDE simulation software tailored to high performance computing (HPC) hardware. Verification and validation (V&V) is an integral part of developing this software to ensure implementations are robust and applicable to inspection problems, producing tools and simulations suitable for computational NDE research. This presentation addresses factors common to V&V of several elastodynamic simulation codes applicable to ultrasonic NDE. Examples are drawn from in-house simulation software at NASA Langley Research Center, ranging from ensuring reliability in a 1D heterogeneous media wave equation solver to the V&V needs of 3D cluster-parallel elastodynamic software. Factors specific to a research environment are addressed, where individual simulation results can be as relevant as the software product itself. Distinct facets of V&V are discussed including testing to establish software reliability, employing systematic approaches for consistency with fundamental conservation laws, establishing the numerical stability of algorithms, and demonstrating concurrence with empirical data. This talk also addresses V&V practices for small groups of researchers. This includes establishing resources (e.g. time and personnel) for V&V during project planning to mitigate and control the risk of setbacks. Similarly, we identify ways for individual researchers to use V&V during simulation software development itself to both speed up the development process and reduce incurred technical debt.

NDE↗

A review on protection challenges of Transmission Lines connected to Inverter Based Resources

The increased penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) connected to transmission grids is challenging how traditional electric power systems operate. Such systems were originally designed based on the dominant presence of synchronous generators. Some main challenges include the increased concerns about system stability due to the reduced system inertia caused by IBRs and the reduced protection reliability caused by the non-deterministic fault current response of IBRs. The protection relays’ algorithms have been designed and validated based on well-known fault current characteristics of synchronous generations, while the short-circuit responses of IBRs heavily depend on their vendor-specific control schemes, which are mainly set to protect inverter semiconductor switches and DC components. The magnitude of short current that IBRs contribute is typically between 1.1–1.5 times the rated current that may behave unstably and incoherently with the voltages. The control scheme of the IBRs also controls the active (P) and reactive (Q) support during system voltage sag and swell conditions. These characteristics challenge not only protective relay schemes but also existing short-circuit software tools to correctly model IBRs for fault studies and protection coordination analyses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accounting for Uncertainties in Strengths of SiC MEMS Parts

A methodology has been devised for accounting for uncertainties in the strengths of silicon carbide structural components of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). The methodology enables prediction of the probabilistic strengths of complexly shaped MEMS parts using data from tests of simple specimens. This methodology is intended to serve as a part of a rational basis for designing SiC MEMS, supplementing methodologies that have been borrowed from the art of designing macroscopic brittle material structures. The need for this or a similar methodology arises as a consequence of the fundamental nature of MEMS and the brittle silicon-based materials of which they are typically fabricated. When tested to fracture, MEMS and structural components thereof show wide part-to-part scatter in strength. The methodology involves the use of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) software in conjunction with the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software to simulate or predict the strength responses of brittle material components while simultaneously accounting for the effects of variability of geometrical features on the strength responses. As such, the methodology involves the use of an extended version of the ANSYS/CARES/PDS software system described in Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts (LEW-17682-1/4-1), Software Tech Briefs supplement to NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 30, No. 9 (September 2006), page 10. The ANSYS PDS software enables the ANSYS finite-element-analysis program to account for uncertainty in the design-and analysis process. The ANSYS PDS software accounts for uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading by assigning probabilistic distributions to user-specified model parameters and performing simulations using various sampling techniques.

Nemeth, Noel↗

Design of a Geothermal Power Plant With Solar Thermal Topping Cycle

Geothermal power plants are a reliable source of low-carbon power generation. However, modern electricity markets comprise relatively large proportions of variable renewable energy generation that may require power plants to flexibly dispatch energy. The power output, efficiency, and dispatch flexibility of a geothermal plant can be enhanced by integrating solar thermal energy into the system, as well as possibly compensating against ambient temperature variations. Concentrating solar thermal (CST) can generate temperatures much higher than conventional geothermal systems. Using a solar topping cycle is one way to efficiently convert high-temperature solar heat to electricity while also cascading lower-temperature heat to the geothermal power cycle, thereby increasing its power output and possibly its efficiency. A hybrid power cycle design is proposed and simulated using SimTech IPSEpro process modeling software. The design configuration depends on the expected temperature of the geothermal resource and the quantity of solar heat added at the design point. These design considerations are described and expected performance is calculated. The solar heat addition varies throughout the day and year; therefore, off-design models are necessary to assess the impact of solar availability (and ambient temperature) on the power plant performance. Off-design models are developed and combined with hourly weather data to facilitate an evaluation of annual system performance.

concentrating solar power↗

A Review on Protection Challenges of Transmission Lines Connected to Inverter-Based Resources

The increased penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) connected to transmission grids is challenging how traditional electric power systems operate. Such systems were originally designed based on the dominant presence of synchronous generators. Some main challenges include the increased concerns about system stability due to the reduced system inertia caused by IBRs and the reduced protection reliability caused by the non-deterministic fault current response of IBRs. The protection relays’ algorithms have been designed and validated based on well-known fault current characteristics of synchronous generations, while the short-circuit responses of IBRs heavily depend on their vendor-specific control schemes, which are mainly set to protect inverter semiconductor switches and DC components. The magnitude of short current that IBRs contribute is typically between 1.1–1.5 times the rated current that may behave unstably and incoherently with the voltages. The control scheme of the IBRs also controls the active (P) and reactive (Q) support during system voltage sag and swell conditions. These characteristics challenge not only protective relay schemes but also existing short-circuit software tools to correctly model IBRs for fault studies and protection coordination analyses

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SU-F-P-37: Implementation of An End-To-End QA Test of the Radiation Therapy Imaging, Planning and Delivery Process to Identify and Correct Possible Sources of Deviation

Purpose: To implement an end-to-end QA test of the radiation therapy imaging, planning and delivery process, aimed to assess the dosimetric agreement accuracy between planned and delivered treatment, in order to identify and correct possible sources of deviation. To establish an internal standard for machine commissioning acceptance. Methods: A test involving all steps of the radiation therapy: imaging, planning and delivery process was designed. The test includes analysis of point dose and planar dose distributions agreement between TPS calculated and measured dose. An ad hoc 16 cm diameter PMMA phantom was constructed with one central and four peripheral bores that can accommodate calibrated electron density inserts. Using Varian Eclipse 10.0 and Elekta XiO 4.50 planning systems, IMRT, RapidArc and 3DCRT with hard and dynamic wedges plans were planned on the phantom and tested. An Exradin A1SL chamber is used with a Keithley 35617EBS electrometer for point dose measurements in the phantom. 2D dose distributions were acquired using MapCheck and Varian aS1000 EPID.Gamma analysis was performed for evaluation of 2D dose distribution agreement using MapCheck software and Varian Portal Dosimetry Application.Varian high energy Clinacs Trilogy, 2100C/CD, 2000CR and low energy 6X/EX where tested.TPS-CT# vs. electron density table were checked for CT-scanners used. Results: Calculated point doses were accurate to 0.127% SD: 0.93%, 0.507% SD: 0.82%, 0.246% SD: 1.39% and 0.012% SD: 0.01% for LoX-3DCRT, HiX-3DCRT, IMRT and RapidArc plans respectively. Planar doses pass gamma 3% 3mm in all cases and 2% 2mm for VMAT plans. Conclusion: Implementation of a simple and reliable quality assurance tool was accomplished. The end-to-end proved efficient, showing excellent agreement between planned and delivered dose evidencing strong consistency of the whole process from imaging through planning to delivery. This test can be used as a first step in beam model acceptance for clinical use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute Radiation Assessment Detector. Also, the University of Florida hybrid phantoms, which are flexible in morphometry and positioning, are being explored as alternatives to the current NASA computational phantoms.

Semones, E. J.↗

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

Design of a Geothermal Power Plant With Solar Thermal Topping Cycle: Preprint

Geothermal power plants are a reliable source of low-carbon power generation. However, modern electricity markets comprise relatively large proportions of variable renewable energy generation that may require power plants to dispatch energy flexibly. The power output, efficiency, and dispatch flexibility of a geothermal plant can be enhanced by integrating solar thermal energy into the system, as well as possibly compensating against ambient temperature variations. Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) can generate temperatures much higher than conventional geothermal systems. Using a solar topping cycle is one way to efficiently convert high-temperature solar heat to electricity while also adding lower-temperature heat to the geothermal power cycle, thereby increasing its power output and possibly its efficiency. A hybrid power cycle design is proposed and is simulated using SimTech IPSEpro process modelling software. The design configuration depends upon the expected temperature of the geothermal resource and the quantity of solar heat added at the design point. These design considerations are described and expected performance is calculated. The solar heat addition varies throughout the day and year, therefore off-design models are necessary to assess the impact of solar availability (and ambient temperature) on the power plant performance. Off-design models are developed and combined with hourly weather data to facilitate an evaluation of annual system performance.

concentrating solar power↗

The Development of Point Doppler Velocimeter Data Acquisition and Processing Software

In order to develop efficient and quiet aircraft and validate Computational Fluid Dynamic predications, aerodynamic researchers require flow parameter measurements to characterize flow fields about wind tunnel models and jet flows. A one-component Point Doppler Velocimeter (pDv), a non-intrusive, laser-based instrument, was constructed using a design/develop/test/validate/deploy approach. A primary component of the instrument is software required for system control/management and data collection/reduction. This software along with evaluation algorithms, advanced pDv from a laboratory curiosity to a production level instrument. Simultaneous pDv and pitot probe velocity measurements obtained at the centerline of a flow exiting a two-inch jet, matched within 0.4%. Flow turbulence spectra obtained with pDv and a hot-wire detected the primary and secondary harmonics with equal dynamic range produced by the fan driving the flow. Novel,hardware and software methods were developed, tested and incorporated into the system to eliminate and/or minimize error sources and improve system reliability.

Cavone, Angelo A.↗

HIPPO – A Software Platform for Electricity Market Research and Development

The goal of this project is to provide Regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and independent system operators (ISOs) a market design and prototyping software, High-Performance Power-Grid Optimization (HIPPO), that they can evaluate electricity market design options, calculate market planning strategies and operational performance. With the high standards and strict reliability requirements for operating power systems, impacts of new technologies need to be fully investigated prior to any consideration for adoption. A market design and prototyping software tool which can be used to prototype electricity market design options, to calculate market planning strategies and operational performance with high precision, and to investigate the impacts for integrating future power grid technologies will be valuable to RTOs/ISOs who operate power systems, to vendors like GE and ABB who provide the market solvers, and to market participants and researchers who are actively doing market research. HIPPO is a such tool that can be used to improve the current market operations and provide capabilities for rigorous forward-looking design and prototyping of next-generation energy markets. HIPPO has a high-resolution model for the day-ahead SCUC, which was validated with MISO and GE-Grid Solutions. HIPPO is built with parallel and distributed computing capabilities and can be executed in both multi-thread and high-performance computing (HPC) settings. This capability provides fast solution speed necessary to handle the larger and more complex SCUC problems of real-world cases and the potentially growing size and complexity of future scenarios. In addition, HIPPO has a concurrent optimizer (CO) which manages multiple algorithm executions simultaneously and leverages the advantages from different algorithms. This structure provides flexibility to better benchmark competing approaches. Highly accurate market model, fast solution technologies and flexible model and algorithm control are the features which will make HIPPO an extensible platform for developing and testing multiple approaches to meet a wide range of future market needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling to Improve the Risk Reduction Process for Command File Errors

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has learned that even innocuous errors in the spacecraft command process can have significantly detrimental effects on a space mission. Consequently, such Command File Errors (CFE), regardless of their effect on the spacecraft, are treated as significant events for which a root cause is identified and corrected. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that encompasses the hardware and software used for command generation as well as the human experts and processes involved in this endeavor. As we move into an era of increased collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex. Consequently, the ability to thoroughly model and analyze CFEs formally in order to reduce the risk they pose is increasingly important. In this paper, we summarize the results of applying modeling techniques previously developed to the DAWN flight project. The original models were built with the input of subject matter experts from several flight projects. We have now customized these models to address specific questions for the DAWN flight project and formulating use cases to address their unique mission needs. The goal of this effort is to enhance the project's ability to meet commanding reliability requirements for operations and to assist them in managing their Command File Errors.

spacecraft↗

Software Assurance Challenges for the Commercial Crew Program

This paper will provide a description of some of the challenges NASA is facing in providing software assurance within the new commercial space services paradigm, namely with the Commercial Crew Program (CCP). The CCP will establish safe, reliable, and affordable access to the International Space Station (ISS) by purchasing a ride from commercial companies. The CCP providers have varying experience with software development in safety-critical space systems. NASA's role in providing effective software assurance support to the CCP providers is critical to the success of CCP. These challenges include funding multiple vehicles that execute in parallel and have different rules of engagement, multiple providers with unique proprietary concerns, providing equivalent guidance to all providers, permitting alternates to NASA standards, and a large number of diverse stakeholders. It is expected that these challenges will exist in future programs, especially if the CCP paradigm proves successful. The proposed CCP approach to address these challenges includes a risk-based assessment with varying degrees of engagement and a distributed assurance model. This presentation will describe NASA IV&V Program's software assurance support and responses to these challenges.

Commercial Crew↗

Investigation of Magmatic Activities on Early Mars Using Igneous Mineral Chemistry in Gale Crater, Mars

One objective of rover missions is exploring the geological context of the surroundings. Over the years, igneous petrology and sedimentology have been disconnected, the first investigating magmatic processes and volcanic activities, and the second seeking environmental conditions in the past and assessing the habitability of the planet. Although different, one is related to the other: igneous rocks are altered and broken down, leading to the formation of sedimentary rocks, which can in turn be used to back out the nature of their magmatic source. The Curiosity rover that landed in the 3.7 Gyr old impact crater Gale is traveling through sedimentary rocks. About fifty float rocks have been observed, and several of them with ambiguous texture and composition have been classified as igneous or sedimentary depending on studies such as Jake_M. The composition of several unambiguous igneous rocks has been analyzed [4- 6] but their heterogeneity at a larger instrumental (measurement size < 2 cm) scale prevents the measurement of a bulk composition as performed on Earth. An original approach avoiding these two last issues is to consider igneous mineral chemistry analyzed within igneous and sedimentary rocks to assess magmatic processes that could have formed them. Most Curiosity data are used to explore ancient environmental conditions, and a significant number of compositional analyses are under-explored for constraining magmatic activities. We will present how we can make use of sedimentary data for investigating igneous processes in the vicinity of Gale crater. Geological Context: We focus on the first 750 martian days, corresponding to measurements in a coherent lacustrine sedimentary unit called Bradbury, because all sedimentary rocks were sourced from the same watershed and appear to have a consistent source with minimal alteration [2-3]. Igneous detrital minerals including feldspar and pyroxene, are observed in sedimentary rocks. Monte Carlo models showed that minimal cation loss is observed based on the composition of all Bradbury rocks, implying negligible weathering [3]. Although clay minerals are detected in few rocks [7], chemical compositions of rocks can be explained by a mixture of primary igneous minerals [3]. Variation of composition within Bradbury rocks can be explained by mineral sorting and one distinct source component. While a common magmatic source is suggested, Bradbury sediments likely come from several volcanic eruptions from a single magmatic chamber [9- 10]. The occurrence of alkali minerals like sanidine and K-rich rocks throughout Bradbury supports the presence of a potassic component, likely trachytic, while plagioclase and a mafic composition suggest a basaltic component [8-9]. Instruments: Mineral chemistry can be estimated by three instruments onboard Curiosity. The CheMin instrument enables detection of mineral assemblages using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Using Rietveld refinement, each mineral is identified according to their 1D XRD pattern [11]. Note that distinction between pyroxene minerals is challenging with the CheMin instrument due to overlapping peaks on XRD patterns and low angular resolution of the instrument [12]. Then, using least square regression and optimization algorithms based on unit-cell parameters, mineral chemistry has been estimated by [11]. Plagioclase composition has been estimated using the NaAlSi3O8- CaAl2Si2O8 system and alkali feldspar is based on the NaAlSi3O8-KAlSi3O8 system (stars in Fig.1). Two mudstone samples (John Klein and Cumberland) and one sandstone sample (Windjana) were analyzed by CheMin at Yellowknife Bay and Kimberley, respectively. Figure 1. Ternary diagrams of feldspars (top) and pyroxene (bottom) quadrilateral. Stars correspond to CheMin composition and the gray patches to ChemCam composition. The colored dots are the composition of feldspar and pyroxene that crystallized during fractional crystallization at FMQ+1 of a melt extracted at distinct melting degree during the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition, without any water (left panels) and with 0.5 wt.% of water (right panels) at distinct pressure. The ChemCam instrument enables the analysis of the chemical compositions of rocks at hundreds of micrometer scale (350-550 μm) using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), which may provide the composition of minerals when they are larger than the beam spot (>550 μm) [13]. Within >5000 LIBS points, we performed a typical stoichiometric filtering allowing us to distinguish 56 feldspar and 10 pyroxene mineral compositions (grey patches in Fig. 1). Finally, the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) analyzes the composition of rocks with a 1.6 cm diameter spot size. Monte Carlo mass balance modeling allowed [3] to decipher a feldspar range varying between An30 and An40 (Fig. 1). Discussion: Although there could be a more complex history and other ways to form the whole compositional range of igneous minerals analyzed within the Bradbury formation, we are presenting here simple magmatic pathways commonly occurring on Earth using the thermodynamical softwares pMELTS and rhyoliteMELTS [14]. The objective is to find reasonable igneous processes that produce minerals that parallel the compositions of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed by the Curiosity rover. As commonly observed for mid-ocean ridge basalts, the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition [15] partially melting at 2 GPa has been modeled, followed by the extraction of a liquid at distinct degrees of partial melting, which undergoes fractional crystallization at an oxygen fugacity +1 log unit above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer within the crust (0.02-0.4 GPa) with H2O = 0- 0.5 wt. %. These latter conditions correspond to those recorded within igneous clasts from the Noachian martian breccia NWA 7034 and paired and within Gale igneous rocks (colored dots in Fig. 1) [16-17]. To check the reliability of these 2-step models, we also tested fractional crystallization at similar conditions (FMQ+1; P=0.02-0.4 GPa; H2O = 0-0.5 wt. %) of starting compositions corresponding to that of magmas with distinct melting degrees obtained from isobaric experiments at 2 GPa [18]. Mineral compositions obtained from both models are similar. As shown on Fig. 1, the whole range of observed feldspar compositions cannot be reproduced by fractionation of one magma only. Indeed, while alkali feldspar and Na-plagioclase likely crystallized from fractional crystallization of a low-degree melt (here <15%), plagioclase and pyroxene can only be formed by fractional crystallization of a higher degree melt (here >19%). The corresponding liquid descent lines are broadly in agreement with compositions estimated by ChemCam corresponding to float igneous rocks (Fig. 2) [4-6]. Figure 2. Silica versus alkali content. Lines show the liquid lines of descent from magmas with distinct degrees of melting. Gray patches represents the composition of Gale igneous rocks [4-6]. Trachytic to rhyolitic magmas crystallize alkali feldspar, and andesite to dacite magmas likely form plagioclase. Therefore, at least two starting magmas at distinct melting degrees, which could easily come from a single mantle source, are necessary to explain the whole compositional range of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed within Bradbury rocks. Conclusion: Because rocks from the Bradbury formation are likely originating from the same magmatic source with minimal weathering as supported by several studies using different approaches, igneous mineral chemistry analyzed by CheMin and ChemCam allows us to back out reasonable magmatic pathways that could have crystallized them. Fractional crystallization of at least two starting magmas originating from distinct melting degrees of a single mantle source can explain the whole range of feldspar and pyroxene composition. Both alkaline and sub-alkaline liquids can be produced, with compositions corresponding to those of the igneous rocks analyzed by ChemCam within the Bradbury formation, highlighting the complexity of Mars magmatism.

Payre, V.↗

Automatic Selection of High-Fidelity Models and Surrogates for Uncertainty Analysis

Surrogate models (SMs) with distinct features developed in the last decade provide an efficient substitute to the high-fidelity physical simulations. However, it is generally challenging to quantify the accuracy of surrogate models in a region of interest and examine reliability in the overall domain without additional system evaluations. This paper introduces a new scheme, automated adaptive model selection, to adaptively construct and quantify a set of surrogate models and automatically switch between the surrogates and a high-fidelity code. Cross-validation approaches, such as KFold, Leave One Out (LOO) and Leave P Out (LPO), are employed to assess the global accuracy of the surrogates. The switching strategy is based on local validation metrics, crowding distance, that are able to provide an assessment on the goodness of the prediction made by the surrogates. This decision metric decides whether the surrogates are good enough for a certain realization or whether the high-fidelity code needs to be executed. This new scheme has been implemented in Risk Analysis in Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software, which can be employed to accelerate the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Computing is at the Forefront of a New “Moonshot” Revolutionizing the North American Power Grid

In the 50+ years since the first humans landed on the moon, computing has grown at breakneck speed. We are faced with another challenge that is just as daunting, and just as important to overcome-modernizing the North American electric power grid-and high-performance computing (HPC) systems with specialized software will be an important element in rising to this challenge. We describe at a high level how software developed in the ExaSGD project addresses this "moonshot" goal by utilizing exascale computing and a novel high performance solver software stack to support the mission of decarbonizing power grid operations in an environment of uncertain weather and climate. To reach the exascale benchmark the team has made a number of first-of-their-kind innovations, including novel method for stochastic optimization, fine grained parallel methods for modeling power systems, and GPU resident sparse numerical linear solvers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

AST Critical Propulsion and Noise Reduction Technologies for Future Commercial Subsonic Engines Area of Interest 1.0: Reliable and Affordable Control Systems

The General Electric Reliable and Affordable Controls effort under the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) Program has designed, fabricated, and tested advanced controls hardware and software to reduce emissions and improve engine safety and reliability. The original effort consisted of four elements: 1) a Hydraulic Multiplexer; 2) Active Combustor Control; 3) a Variable Displacement Vane Pump (VDVP); and 4) Intelligent Engine Control. The VDVP and Intelligent Engine Control elements were cancelled due to funding constraints and are reported here only to the state they progressed. The Hydraulic Multiplexing element developed and tested a prototype which improves reliability by combining the functionality of up to 16 solenoids and servo-valves into one component with a single electrically powered force motor. The Active Combustor Control element developed intelligent staging and control strategies for low emission combustors. This included development and tests of a Controlled Pressure Fuel Nozzle for fuel sequencing, a Fuel Multiplexer for individual fuel cup metering, and model-based control logic. Both the Hydraulic Multiplexer and Controlled Pressure Fuel Nozzle system were cleared for engine test. The Fuel Multiplexer was cleared for combustor rig test which must be followed by an engine test to achieve full maturation.

Myers, William↗

Engineering Complex Embedded Systems with State Analysis and the Mission Data System

It has become clear that spacecraft system complexity is reaching a threshold where customary methods of control are no longer affordable or sufficiently reliable. At the heart of this problem are the conventional approaches to systems and software engineering based on subsystem-level functional decomposition, which fail to scale in the tangled web of interactions typically encountered in complex spacecraft designs. Furthermore, there is a fundamental gap between the requirements on software specified by systems engineers and the implementation of these requirements by software engineers. Software engineers must perform the translation of requirements into software code, hoping to accurately capture the systems engineer's understanding of the system behavior, which is not always explicitly specified. This gap opens up the possibility for misinterpretation of the systems engineer s intent, potentially leading to software errors. This problem is addressed by a systems engineering methodology called State Analysis, which provides a process for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models. This paper describes how requirements for complex aerospace systems can be developed using State Analysis and how these requirements inform the design of the system software, using representative spacecraft examples.

mission data systems↗