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At least 739 records · Page 41

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Pertechnetate/perrhenate–capped Zr/Hf–Dihydroxide Dimers: Elucidating Zr–TcO 4 Co–Mobility in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Spent nuclear fuel contains heavy element fission products that must be separated for effective reprocessing for a safe and sustainable nuclear fuel cycle. 93 Zr and 99 Tc are high-yield fission products that co-transport in liquid-liquid extraction processes. Here we seek atomic-level information of this co-extraction process, as well as fundamental knowledge about Zr IV (and Hf IV ) aqueous speciation in the presence of topology-directing ligands such as pertechnetate (TcO 4 – ) and non-radioactive surrogate perrhenate (ReO 4 – ). In this context, we show that the flat tetrameric oxyhydroxyl-cluster [M IV 4 (OH) 8 (H 2 O) 16 ] 8+ (and related polymers) is dissociated by perrhenate/pertechnetate to yield isostructural dimers, M 2 (OH) 2 (XO 4 – ) 6 (H 2 O) 6 • 3H 2 O (M=Zr/Hf IV ; X=Re/Tc VII ), elucidated by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. We used these model compounds to understand the pervasive 93 Zr- 99 Tc coextraction with further speciation studies in water, nitric acid, and tetrabutylphosphate (TBP) -kerosene; where the latter two media are relevant to nuclear fuel reprocessing. SAXS (small angle X-ray scattering), compositional evaluation, and where experimentally feasible, ESI-MS (electrospray ionization mass spectrometry) showed that perrhenate/pertechnetate influence Zr/Hf IV -speciation in water. Here, in Zr-XO 4 solvent extraction studies to simulate fuel reprocessing, we provide evidence that TcO 4 – enhances extraction of Zr IV , and compositional analysis of the extracted metal-complexes (Zr-ReO 4 study) is consistent with the crystallized Zr IV 2 (OH) 2 (Re VII O 4 – ) 6 (H 2 O) 6 •dimer.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Modeling Interactions within and between Peptide Amphiphile Supramolecular Filaments

Many peptides are able to self-assemble into one-dimensional (1D) nanostructures, such as cylindrical fibers or ribbons of variable widths, but the relationship between the morphology of 1D objects and their molecular structure is not well understood. Here, we use coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CG-MD) simulations to study the nanostructures formed by self-assembly of different peptide amphiphiles (PAs). The results show that ribbons are hierarchical superstructures formed by laterally assembled cylindrical fibers. Simulations starting from bilayer structures demonstrate the formation of filaments, whereas other simulations starting from filaments indicate varying degrees of interaction among them depending on chemical structure. These interactions are verified by observations using atomic force microscopy of the various systems. The interfilament interactions are predicted to be strongest in supramolecular assemblies that display hydrophilic groups on their surfaces, while those with hydrophobic ones are predicted to interact more weakly as confirmed by viscosity measurements. The simulations also suggest that peptide amphiphiles with hydrophobic termini bend to reduce their interfacial energy with water, which may explain why these systems do not collapse into superstructures of bundled filaments. The simulations suggest that future experiments will need to address mechanistic questions about the self-assembly of these systems into hierarchical structures, namely, the preformation of interactive filaments vs equilibration of large assemblies into superstructures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

HybridSystemsSimulations.jl - Solving the Merchant Collocated Facilities with JuMP

The development of new clean-generation technologies also leads to new plant-level architectures that combine several generation and storage assets behind the point of connection. These co-located generation resources (Hybrid Systems) primarily operate as merchant assets that employ automated market bidding models and internal Energy Management Systems (EMS) to comply with the operator's signals. Formulating an optimal bidding model requires embedding the EMS control model into the bidding algorithm, resulting in a bi-level optimization problem. In this presentation, we first showcase using JuMP to formulate and solve this problem effectively for multiple merchant systems and the bidding outcomes considering different model formulations. Second, the bidding outcomes are later integrated into a PowerSimulations.jl (also built with JuMP) simulation to study the system-level effects of the various merchant bidding and the interactions between market-clearing models and the embedded EMS model. We will showcase simulations conducted in the RTS system considering different levels of merchant hybrid systems participation. The presentation provides the following specific insights on JuMP usage: 1) the Formulation of specialized bi-level problems with custom cuts to solve the merchant hybrid system bidding problem; 2) the integration of a modular model within a complex simulation workflow supported by JuMP in PowerSimulations.jl; 3) Accelerating the solution of power systems operations simulation that employ agent optimization problems using JuMP.

energy markets↗

Meltwater runoff and glacier mass balance in the high Arctic: 1991–2022 simulations for Svalbard

The Arctic is undergoing increased warming compared to the global mean, which has major implications for freshwater runoff into the oceans from seasonal snow and glaciers. Here, we present high-resolution (2.5 km) simulations of glacier mass balance, runoff, and snow conditions on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the world. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model forced by Copernicus Arctic Regional ReAnalysis (CARRA) (1991–2021) and AROME-ARCTIC forecasts (2016–2022). Updates to the water percolation and runoff schemes are implemented in the CryoGrid model for the simulations. In situ observations available for Svalbard, including automatic weather station data, stake measurements, and discharge observations, are used to carefully evaluate the quality of the simulations and model forcing. We find a slightly negative climatic mass balance (CMB) over the simulation period of -0.08 mw.e.yr -1 but with no statistically significant trend. The most negative annual CMB is found for Nordenskiöldland (-0.73 mw.e.yr -1 ), with a significant negative trend of -0.27 mw.e. per decade for the region. Although there is no trend in the annual CMB, we do find a significant increasing trend in the runoff from glaciers of 0.14 mw.e. per decade. The average runoff was found to be 0.8 mw.e.yr -1 . We also find a significant negative trend in the refreezing of -0.13 mw.e. per decade. Using AROME-ARCTIC forcing, we find that 2021/22 has the most negative CMB and highest runoff over the 1991–2022 simulation period investigated in this study. We find the simulated climatic mass balance and runoff using CARRA and AROME-ARCTIC forcing are similar and differ by only 0.1 mw.e.yr -1 in climatic mass balance and by 0.2 mw.e.yr -1 in glacier runoff when averaged over all of Svalbard. There is, however, a clear difference over Nordenskiöldland, where AROME-ARCTIC simulates significantly higher mass balance and significantly lower runoff. This indicates that AROME-ARCTIC may provide similar high-quality predictions of the total mass balance of Svalbard as CARRA, but regional uncertainties should be taken into consideration. The simulations produced for this study are made publicly available at a daily and monthly resolution, and these high-resolution simulations may be re-used in a wide range of applications including studies on glacial runoff, ocean currents, and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The dissolution of simulant vitrified intermediate level nuclear waste in young cement water

Abstract It is pertinent to the safety case for geological disposal in the UK that the behaviour of vitrified wastes in proximity to cementitious materials is understood. In this study, vitrified simulant intermediate level nuclear waste (ILW) was subject to dissolution in a synthetic cement water solution to simulate disposal conditions. Results show that the presence of alkali / alkaline earth elements in the cementitious solution can be favourable, at least in the short-term, leading to lower dissolution rates associated with incorporation of these elements into the altered layer of the glass.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Understanding Changes in Cloud Simulations from E3SM Version 1 to Version 2

This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (CLUBB), microphysical parameterization (MG2), and deep convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds (Sc) and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus to cumulus transition regimes, where Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning made in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to improved SWCRE and Longwave Cloud Radiative Effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the Southern Ocean (SO). They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than do the CLUBB and ZM tunings. This study offers additional insights about clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the COSP diagnostic tool as well as through sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit the future E3SM developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of dislocations on martensitic transformation temperatures and microstructure: A molecular dynamics study

Microstructure and defects strongly affect martensitic transformations in metallic alloys. Significant progress has been made in understanding the atomic-level processes that control the role of grain boundaries and precipitates in these solid-to-solid phase transformations. Yet, the role of dislocations and their structures on martensitic transformation temperature and the resulting microstructure remains unclear. Therefore, we used large-scale molecular dynamics simulations to study the forward and reverse transformation of a martensitic material modeled after Ni63Al37 under cyclic thermal loading. The simulations reveal that dislocations in the austenite phase act as one-dimensional seeds for the martensite phase, which is present at temperatures significantly above the martensite start value. We find a reduction in the dislocation density during cyclic thermal loading, which results in the increase in martensite and austenite transition temperatures, in agreement with experiments. Importantly, we extracted a critical martensitic nuclei size for developing stable domains and found that relatively low dislocation densities are needed to grow independent martensitic variants resulting in a multi-domain structure.

Physics↗

An Improved Algorithm for Estimating Surface Shortwave Radiation: Preliminary Evaluation With MODIS Products

Cloud parameters, as key inputs in radiative transfer algorithms, have a critical impact on surface shortwave radiation (SSR) computation. By introducing a parameterization of cloud transmittance and reflectance, based on radiative transfer simulations, this study improves the accuracy of an existing physically based model which severely underestimates SSR under thick cloud conditions. The cloud parameterization adopts the single-layer cloud model and simulates cloud transmittances and reflectances by varying cloud optical thickness, cloud particle size, and solar zenith angle. The revised model is applied to estimate instantaneous SSR using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric and land products. The retrieved SSR is evaluated against observation data from 41 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations and is also compared with the MODIS official SSR product. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimated instantaneous radiation is approximately 52 and 98 W m -2 under clear-sky and all-sky conditions, respectively. The accuracy of the improved parameterization is higher than that of the original model, and there is no obvious underestimation of SSR in the case of high cloud optical thickness. Therefore, the new algorithm improves the accuracy of SSR estimates in the presence of thick clouds. Retrievals with the improved model also achieve higher accuracy than the MODIS official SSR product (MCD18A1). To conclude, the reliable performance of the scheme at most BSRN stations illustrates that the improved model can be used to map SSR on a global scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data on erosion and hydrogen fuel retention in Beryllium plasma-facing materials

ITER will use beryllium as a plasma-facing material in the main chamber, covering a total surface area of about 620 m 2 . Given the importance of beryllium erosion and co-deposition for tritium retention in ITER, significant efforts have been made to understand the behaviour of beryllium under fusion-relevant conditions with high particle and heat loads. This paper provides a comprehensive report on the state of knowledge of beryllium behaviour under fusion-relevant conditions: the erosion mechanisms and their consequences, beryllium migration in JET, fuel retention and dust generation. The paper reviews basic laboratory studies, advanced computer simulations and experience from laboratory plasma experiments in linear simulators of plasma–wall interactions and in controlled fusion devices using beryllium plasma-facing components. A critical assessment of analytical methods and simulation codes used in beryllium studies is given. The overall objective is to review the existing set of data with a broad literature survey and to identify gaps and research needs to broaden the database for ITER.

Erosion–deposition↗

Ion Correlations and Partial Ionicities in the Lamellar Phases of Block Copolymeric Ionic Liquids

Recently, significant interest has arisen on the impact of dynamical ion correlations on the conductivity and transport properties of polymeric electrolyte materials. It has been hypothesized that confining ion motion to narrow channels may reduce such ion correlations and enhance the resulting ionic conductivity. Motivated by such considerations, in this study we used a multiscale simulation framework to study the dynamical ion correlations in the microphase-separated lamella phase of block copolymeric ionic liquids and compare with the corresponding results for homopolymeric systems. We probed the influence of ion correlations through the partial ionicity, Δ, which quantifies the ratio of true conductivity to the ideal, Nernst–Einstein conductivity for the anion-related contributions. Consistent with our original hypothesis, our results demonstrate that the partial ionicity relating to the mobile anions is much larger in the lamella phases of block copolymers compared to that in homopolymers. Analysis of the distinct conductivity contributions demonstrates that such results arise as a result of an intricate compensation among the nonideal dynamical correlations relating to anions in lamella phases. Overall, our results suggest that self-assembled phases of block copolymers may provide an avenue to tune the dynamical ion correlations in polymer electrolyte systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupling multi-fidelity xRAGE with machine learning for graded inner shell design optimization in double shell capsules

Bayesian optimization has shown promise for the design optimization of inertial confinement fusion targets. Specifically, in Vazirani et al. [Phys. Plasmas 28 , 122709 (2021)], optimal designs for double shell capsules with graded inner shells were identified using one-dimensional xRAGE simulation yield calculations. While the machine learning models were able to accurately learn and predict one-dimensional simulation target performance, using simulations with higher fidelity would improve design optimization and better match with the expected experimental performance. However, higher fidelity physics modeling, i.e., two-dimensional xRAGE simulations, requires significantly larger computational time/cost, usually at least an order of magnitude, in comparison with one-dimensional simulations. This study presents a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization, in which the machine learning model leverages low-fidelity (one-dimensional xRAGE) and high-fidelity (two-dimensional xRAGE) simulations to more accurately predict “pre-shot” target performance with respect to the expected experimental performance. By building a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework coupled with xRAGE, the low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations are able to inform one another, such that we have: (1) improved physics modeling in comparison with using low-fidelity simulations alone, (2) reduced computational time/cost in comparison with using high-fidelity simulations alone, and (3) more confidence in the expected performance of optimized targets during real-world experiments. In the future, we plan to use this robust multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization methodology to expedite the design of graded inner shells further and eventually full capsules as a part of the current double shell campaign at the National Ignition Facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Electron temperature gradient instability and transport analysis in NSTX and NSTX-U plasmas

Extensive linear and nonlinear simulations to study electron temperature gradient (ETG) stability and thermal transport in National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) and NSTX-U plasmas were performed using the fully electromagnetic gyrokinetic code CGYRO. Linear simulations were performed to determine ETG thresholds in different discharges, showing that ETG modes in spherical tokamaks can present different scalings compared to conventional aspect-ratio tokamaks. Nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations were conducted for selected cases to calculate electron thermal transport and compare to experimental values. Results are also compared with those of ETG modes in the multi-mode model and the Trapped-Gyro-Landau-Fluid reduced model codes, to better understand their applicability in spherical tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Generic Two-Vector Model Predictive Control for Hybrid Multilevel Converters

In this article, a generic two-vector model predictive control (TV-MPC) strategy is proposed for the hybrid multilevel converters (HMCs). The proposed method selects two optimal voltage vectors among all the vector candidates using a geometric positioning approach to reduce the computational burden, which is a common issue in the existing MPC methods for HMC. Then duty cycles of the two selected vectors are optimized to minimize the current tracking error, such that the current tracking performance can be enhanced compared with the conventional MPC. In addition, the voltages of the floating dc capacitors can be balanced by evaluating all switching sequences that belong to the optimal voltage vectors with optimal duty cycles. Here, the concept of the proposed TV-MPC is generic and applicable for any HMCs. A typical HMC based on active neutral-point-clamped topology is adopted as a case study in this work. Comprehensive simulation and experimental studies are performed on an all silicon-carbide HMC prototype to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Composition Measurements of the HLW APPS Glasses

This report provides the results from the chemical analyses of the glass compositions of the High Activity Waste Aspen Process Performance Simulation (HLW APPS) study glasses, a series of simulated nuclear waste glasses designed and fabricated at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These data will be used in the development, validation, and implementation of enhanced property/composition models for waste glass vitrification at Hanford. Chemical analyses were performed on a representative sample of each of the quenched glasses to allow for comparisons with targeted compositions. The relative differences between the targeted and measured concentrations of F- for three glasses and B 2 O 3 for five glasses were greater than 10%. These results can be used in further characterization of this series of glasses, including the normalization of Product Consistency Test results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Oscillatory and Collective Dynamics of Gold‐Nanoparticle‐Laden Droplets Driven by Photothermal‐Induced Thermocapillarity

Droplets have long intrigued researchers due to their ability to exhibit complex and fascinating behavior when subjected to external stimuli. Here, a coupled oscillatory behavior of gold-nanoparticle-surfactant-laden aqueous droplets is investigated at an oil-oil interface stimulated by light. This study shows that the interaction between light and the droplets gives rise to a range of oscillatory modes, including bouncing and clustering, where droplets exhibit collective movement. From experiment and numerical simulations, this study elucidates the underlying mechanism: upon laser irradiation, gold nanoparticles convert light into heat, generating asymmetric thermal gradients that drive upward thermocapillary flows and a hydrodynamic force from photothermal convection. These forces compete with gravity and buoyancy to induce droplet bouncing, while the resulting asymmetric flow fields bias neighboring droplets toward the illuminated droplet, leading to clustering. These findings not only expand the library of dynamic droplet behavior but also offer insights into the potential applications of light-driven systems in materials science, soft robotics, and microfluidics.

Marangoni effect↗

Biophysical Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Subgrid Temperature in CMIP6 Models

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗