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DOE OSTI2024

Cyclic Injection Leads to Larger and More Frequent Induced Earthquakes under Volume-Controlled Conditions

As carbon storage technologies advance globally, methods to understand and mitigate induced earthquakes become increasingly important. Although the physical processes that relate increased subsurface pore pressure changes to induced earthquakes have long been known, reliable methods to forecast and control induced seismic sequences remain elusive. Suggested reservoir engineering scenarios for mitigating induced earthquakes typically involve modulation of the injection rate. Some operators have implemented periodic shutdowns (i.e., effective cycling of injection rates) to allow reservoir pressures to equilibrate (e.g., Paradox Valley) or shut-in wells after the occurrence of an event of concern (e.g., Basel, Switzerland). Other proposed scenarios include altering injection rates, actively managing pressures through coproduction of fluids, and preinjection brine extraction. Here, in this work, we use 3D physics-based earthquake simulations to understand the effects of different injection scenarios on induced earthquake rates, maximum event magnitudes, and postinjection seismicity. For comparability, the modeled injection considers the same cumulative volume over the project’s operational life but varies the schedule and rates of fluid injected. Simulation results show that cyclic injection leads to more frequent and larger events than constant injection. Furthermore, with intermittent injection scenario, a significant number of events are shown to occur during pauses in injection, and the seismicity rate remains elevated for longer into the postinjection phase compared to the constant injection scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simplified Approach for Scoping Assessment of Non-LWR Source Terms

This report describes a structure to aid in evaluation of release mitigation strategies across a range of reactor technologies. The assessment performed for example reactor concepts utilizes previous studies of postulated accident sequences for each reactor concept. This simplified approach classifies release mitigation strategies based on a range of barriers, physical attenuation processes, and system performance. It is not, however, intended to develop quantitative estimates of radiological release magnitudes and compositions to the environment. Rather, this approach is intended to identify the characteristics of a reactor design concepts release mitigation strategies that are most important to different classes of accident scenarios. It uses a scoping methodology to provide an approximate, order-of-magnitude, estimate of the radiological release to the environment and associated off-site consequences. This scoping method is applied to different reactor concepts, considering the performance of barriers to fission product release for these concepts under sample accident scenarios. The accident scenarios and sensitivity evaluations are selected in this report to evaluate the role of different fission product barriers in ameliorating the source term to the environment and associated off-site consequences. This report applies this structure to characterize how release mitigation measures are integrated to define overall release mitigation strategies for High Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGRs), Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs), and liquid fueled Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). To support this evaluation framework, factors defining a chain of release attenuation stages, and thus an overall mitigation strategy, must be established through mechanistic source term calculations. This has typically required the application of an integral plant analysis code such as MELCOR. At present, there is insufficient evidence to support a priori evaluation of the effectiveness of a release mitigation strategy for advanced reactor concepts across the spectrum of events that could challenge the radiological containment function. While it is clear that these designs have significant margin to radiological release to the environment for the scenarios comprising the design basis, detailed studies have not yet been performed to assess the risk profile for these plants. Such studies would require extensive evaluation across a reasonably complete spectrum of accident scenarios that could lead to radiological release to the environment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Signature Analysis Utilizing a Dynamic Molten Salt Reactor Model for MC&A

Moving from traditional fixed fuel nuclear reactor systems to a mobile, dynamic fuel system that has dissolved special nuclear material in a molten salt is a paradigm shift in several respects. One major consideration is how to develop effective nuclear material controls and accounting for these novel reactor systems. The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment is one example of a critical molten salt system and provided a significant reference library based on the documented effort. But it was low thermal power that was not intended to reflect a commercial scale electricity production design. Therefore, to facilitate and assist vendors with domestic licensing considerations, research is underway to identify methods that could be used for domestic safeguards approaches for these novel reactor systems. This research presents the results of a signature analysis of data generated from three simulated scenarios using the molten salt demonstration reactor model defined in the Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Modules. Each scenario provides 1 hour isotope inventories over a 180 day period. The scenarios investigated provide test cases to examine if direct gamma-ray spectroscopy of the fuel can be used to identify changes comparing a base case (no reactivity control and fixed fission contribution) to an insertion of reactivity (10 pcm no change in fission composition) and a change in fission composition. The analysis demonstrates that monitoring the total count rate in a highly collimated high-resolution photon energy spectrum is sensitive to perturbations imposed into the reactor model. The total photon count rate changes ≈2% for the fission composition change and ≈4.5% for the reactivity insertion compared to the base case. However, both scenarios show an increase in the total photon count rate. The total photon count rate can be used to identify changes due to power (number of fissions) but not due to a change in the material undergoing fission. To distinguish between the two cases of increased power, the photon spectrum would require an intensive analysis technique. A photon peak count rate ratio analysis could be used to identify changes in the fissile material fission generation in the core through identification of a static peak that shows little variation to the source of fission and a highly varying peak. The photon peak strength will ultimately be determined by the isotope’s fission yield. A preliminary analysis investigating the coupling of the isotope’s fission yield and its concentration in the fuel salt derived from the modeling has been performed. A ratio analysis of the photon peak count rates of 140 La to 99 Mo demonstrated that the reactivity insertion creates a distinct difference in the ratio compared to the fission composition change scenario.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Semi-Annual Report for Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) Development during Performance Period October 2022-March 2023

Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multi-disciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed HC-HTGR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe, low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. Additionally, Argonne is providing analysis of the primary heat transport system to ensure temperatures in the reactor systems, structures and components with significant safety margins during normal operation and design basis accident scenarios. This third semi-annual report summarized the progress made at Argonne on the two tasks during the first half of FY23. As a part of the RCCS design task, a design process for the water panel and the system configuration was performed to improve the thermal performance of the RCCS. The updated water panel design had achieved enhanced thermal performance with 0.96 MWth capability with major design updates made in structural interfaces with the RPV and initial configuration of the water tanks. The loop configuration of the RCCS has been proposed to have two independently working loops for system redundancy. A water panel material study was performed focusing on the use of carbon steel in water systems. Additional modeling strategies of primary system thermal fluids analyses were developed to meet modeling needs that are not well suited for the 1D-3D assembly level approach. The first of these is a reduced order assembly model, in which fuel centered unit cells are used to represent a fuel assembly. The 2D approach used in this model is much more computationally efficient, making this model useful for full core transient scenarios where fuel to coolant heat transfer is still the dominant flow path. The next model is the 3D core conduction model to be used to analyze decay heat removal in loss of primary system flow scenarios. Because these scenarios require a large domain to be modeled, a homogenized core model is being pursued to reduce the required computational costs. To accurately model decay heat scenarios it is necessary to couple a RCCS model to the 3D core conduction model. A simplified case is presented to demonstrate how the coupling methodology will be applied to the full core 3D conduction model.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Siting Considerations on Offshore Wind Technical Potential in the United States

We estimated the technical potential for the offshore wind (OSW) resource in the United States under two siting regimes to characterize the uncertainty pertaining to the local drivers of siting within a national context. We established Open Access and Limited Access regimes to represent upper and lower bounds on OSW deployment, respectively. These included spatial constraints such as technology depth limits, military use areas, protected areas, existing infrastructure, shipping lanes and more. The same spatial considerations are also considered in the Limited Access regime, but with additional buffers to existing infrastructure as well as a reduced capacity density assumption. Capacity density is the concentration of wind energy development for a given area specified in terms of megawatts (MW) per square kilometer (km 2 ). In the Open-Access regime we used a 5 MW/km 2 assumption, while in the Limited Access scenario we assumed 3 MW/km 2 . This difference reflects our intention for the Open-Access scenario to serve as an upper bound for OSW technical potential, with the Limited-Access scenario as a lower bound. We also applied three technology advancement scenarios to each of the siting regimes. The three technology scenarios (Conservative, Moderate, and Advanced) represent plausible improvements in turbine technology including increased rated power and higher hub heights.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices

This study quantifies the potential impacts of wildfires on the California grid, specifically the impacts under three different wildfire scenarios: a "no wildfire" scenario and two wildfire-specific scenarios, "2020 wildfire" and "enhanced wildfire" (with both wildfire scenarios assuming spatial distribution of the wildfire location the same as the 2020 fires). The study combines each scenario with two solar energy infrastructures: one corresponding to the current solar installation and the other to future (midcentury) solar installation. The analysis is conducted using state-of-the-science modeling tools: primarily WRF-Chem for atmospheric modeling with chemistry to account for impacts of wildfires on solar radiation and PLEXOS for electricity market simulations. The analysis suggests that wildfires can significantly attenuate solar radiation at both short downwind distances as well as far from the emissions sources. Although the study is limited in scope, and the analysis studies only a few of the many factors that can affect photovoltaic generation and electricity markets, it indicates that wildfire smoke is an important factor that needs to be carefully considered and analyzed in planning the future grid.

electricity market↗

DOE OSTI2023

Status of Multiphysics Modeling of Critical DPCs in a Geological Repository

A summary of previous work focused on the first two scenarios is presented as an established workflow. These canisters could reach an equilibrium at a low quasi–steady-state power level that could be sustained for thousands of years. The majority of this report describes an effort to expand the initial methodology to include the scenario in which a DPC has enough excess reactivity to boil the water inside the canister. This scenario involves a variety of tools and modeling approaches to capture the two-phase behavior, including RELAP5-3D, STAR-CCM+, and TRACE. Efforts using the high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics results to verify the accuracy of RELAP5-3D and TRACE for boiling DPCs are also presented. A new modeling strategy using TRACE appears to be the most promising approach for expanding the analysis of critical DPCs beyond the subcooled scenarios. Finally, this report describes ongoing work investigating the fourth scenario, in which a critical DPC is sealed in saturated bentonite. The primary goal in this research is to understand the power output and associated pressure increase to inform geomechanics simulations that could predict the impact on a geological repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupling Thermal-Hydraulics with Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture Models

Because of the importance of maintaining the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in light-water reactors, significant effort has been devoted over the last several decades to understand the potential failure mechanisms, characterize how material properties evolve due to environmental conditions, and develop tools to assess the probability of fracture in aged RPVs during potential transient events. One important aspect of this problem that has not yet been fully addressed is the effects of nonuniform cooling on the RPV inner wall due to the way low-temperature water injected into the primary coolant system is distributed within the RPV during potential loss-of-coolant accident transients. Colder temperatures are expected in the regions near the inlets, causing a “cold-plume” effect. Rapid cooling of the RPV wall increases the likelihood of fracture initiation, and localized cooling due to cold-plume effects could potentially exacerbate this problem. The Grizzly code can perform a three-dimensional simulation of the RPV thermomechanical response as well as the probabilistic assessment of fracture for a population of pre-existing flaws, which is necessary to account for spatial variations in coolant temperature. This report documents a first effort to couple Grizzly RPV fracture models with computational fluid dynamics models performed using the Cardinal code, which allows for a realistic representation of the temperature distribution. This report demonstrates this coupling approach on two test cases: a simplified proof-of-concept scenario and a realistic small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In both cases, the effects of the spatially varying temperature are evident; although, because the small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario was far from challenging the RPV’s margins, it is still inconclusive how important cold-plume effects are in realistic accident scenarios. However, this effort represents an important step toward performing realistic analyses to determine to what extent spatially nonuniform cooling might affect RPV integrity under more aggressive accident scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 6: Universal Access to Safe and Comfortable Home Temperatures

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and cooling technologies as means to increase access to safe and comfortable home temperatures. Lack of cooling access and use can have severe health impacts on building occupants during heat waves. Specifically, NREL developed and used a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We compared a baseline scenario with seven upgrade scenarios. Five scenarios cooled the entire household and featured cooling systems at varying efficiency levels with various improvements to the envelope, roof, and shading, and two scenarios cooled a single room in a household with no prior cooling using either a room air-conditioning or a heat pump system. For each scenario, we evaluated impacts on utility bills, payback periods, and changes in energy burdens, as well as ability to achieve safe and comfortable temperatures. We also examined the effects of building types (multifamily vs. single-family) on indoor air temperatures. Based on the results of modeling, analysis, and community guidance, we identified six short-term and two long-term strategies for improving access to building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for Los Angeles' low-income households during heat waves. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

air conditioning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of a reconfiguration of the InterSpread Plus US national FMD model as a potential tool to analyze a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak on a single large cattle feedlot in the United States

An incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the United States remains a concern of high importance and would have devastating socioeconomic impacts to the livestock and associated industries. This highly transmissible and infectious disease poses continual risk for introduction into the United States (US), due to the legal and illegal global movement of people, animals, and animal products. While stamping out has been shown to effectively control FMD, depopulation of large cattle feedlots (>50,000 head) presents a number of challenges for responders due to the resources required to depopulate and dispose of large numbers of animals in a timely and effective manner. However, evaluating alternative strategies for FMD control on large feedlots requires a detailed within-farm modeling approach, which can account for the unique structure of these operations. To address this, we developed a single feedlot, within-farm spread model using a novel configuration within the InterSpread Plus (ISP) framework. As proof of concept we designed six scenarios: (i) depopulation - the complete depopulation of the feedlot, (ii) burn-through – a managed “burn-through” where the virus is allowed to spread through the feedlot and only movement restriction and biosecurity are implemented, (iii) firebreak-NV – targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens without vaccination; (iv) firebreak - targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens with vaccination of remaining pens; (v) harvest-NV - selective harvest of pens where a 100% movement restriction is applied for 28-30 days, then pens are set for selection to be sent to slaughter, while allowing a controlled “burn-through” without vaccination; and (vi) harvest - selective harvest of pens with vaccination. Overall, the burn-through scenario (ii) had the shortest epidemic duration (31d (30, 33)) median (25th, 75th percentiles), while the firebreak scenario (iv) had the longest (47d (38,55)). Additionally, we found that scenarios implementing depopulation delayed the peak day of infection and reduced the total number of pens infected compared to non-depopulation scenarios.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics

Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions and endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, and hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling the intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed the 3D-CMCC-FEM model to simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four climate change (plus one no climate change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks and increment were simulated via total carbon woody stocks and mean annual increment, which depends mainly on climate trends. We find greater differences among different age cohorts under the same scenario than among different climate scenarios under the same age class. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns led to a decline in above-ground biomass in spruce stands, especially in the older age classes. On the contrary, the results show that beech forests will maintain and even increase C-storage rates under most RCP scenarios. Scots pine forests show an intermediate behavior with a stable stock capacity over time and in different scenarios but with decreasing mean volume annual increment. These results confirm current observations worldwide that indicate a stronger climate-related decline in conifers forests than in broadleaves.

Forestry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explaining Nonmerger Gamma-Ray Bursts and Broad-lined Supernovae with Close Binary Progenitors with Black Hole Central Engines

For over 25 yr, the origin of long-duration gamma-ray bursts (lGRBs) has been linked to the collapse of rotating massive stars. However, we have yet to pinpoint the stellar progenitor powering these transients. Moreover, the dominant engine powering the explosions remains open to debate. Observations of both lGRBs, supernovae associated with these GRBs, such as broad-line (BL) stripped-envelope (type Ic) supernovae (hereafter, Ic-BL), supernovae (SNe), and perhaps superluminous SNe, fast blue optical transients, and fast x-ray transients, may provide clues to both engines and progenitors. In this paper, we conduct a detailed study of the tight-binary formation scenario for lGRBs, comparing this scenario to other leading progenitor models. Combining this progenitor scenario with different lGRB engines, we can compare to existing data and make predictions for future observational tests. We find that the combination of the tight-binary progenitor scenario with the black hole accretion disk engine can explain lGRBs, low-luminosity GRBs, ultra-long GRBs, and Ic-BL. We discuss the various progenitor properties required for these different subclasses and note such systems would be future gravitational-wave merger sources. We show that the current literature on other progenitor-engine scenarios cannot explain all of these transient classes with a single origin, motivating additional work. We find that the tight-binary progenitor with a magnetar engine is excluded by existing observations. The observations can be used to constrain the properties of stellar evolution, the nature of the GRB, and the associated SN engines in lGRBs and Ic-BL. We discuss the future observations needed to constrain our understanding of these rare, but powerful, explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗