Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “sampling statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 739 records · Page 41

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF FERMI GAMMA-RAY BURST DATA. III. ENERGY-DEPENDENT T {sub 90} DISTRIBUTIONS OF GBM GRBs AND INSTRUMENTAL SELECTION EFFECT ON DURATION CLASSIFICATION

The durations (T {sub 90}) of 315 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected with Fermi/GBM (8-1000 keV) up to 2011 September are calculated using the Bayesian Block method. We compare the T {sub 90} distributions between this sample and those derived from previous/current GRB missions. We show that the T {sub 90} distribution of this GRB sample is bimodal, with a statistical significance level comparable to those derived from the BeppoSAX/GRBM sample and the Swift/BAT sample, but lower than that derived from the CGRO/BATSE sample. The short-to-long GRB number ratio is also much lower than that derived from the BATSE sample, i.e., 1:6.5 versus 1:3. We measure T {sub 90} in several bands, i.e., 8-15, 15-25, 25-50, 50-100, 100-350, and 350-1000 keV, to investigate the energy-dependence effect of the bimodal T {sub 90} distribution. It is found that the bimodal feature is well observed in the 50-100 and 100-350 keV bands, but is only marginally acceptable in the 25-50 keV and 350-1000 keV bands. The hypothesis of bimodality is confidently rejected in the 8-15 and 15-25 keV bands. The T {sub 90} distributions in these bands are roughly consistent with those observed by missions with similar energy bands. The parameter T {sub 90} as a function of energy follows T-bar {sub 90}{proportional_to}E{sup -0.20{+-}0.02} for long GRBs. Considering the erratic X-ray and optical flares, the duration of a burst would be even longer for most GRBs. Our results, together with the observed extended emission of some short GRBs, indicate that the central engine activity timescale would be much longer than T {sub 90} for both long and short GRBs and the observed bimodal T {sub 90} distribution may be due to an instrumental selection effect.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Active galactic nucleus black hole mass estimates in the era of time domain astronomy

We investigate the dependence of the normalization of the high-frequency part of the X-ray and optical power spectral densities (PSDs) on black hole mass for a sample of 39 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with black hole masses estimated from reverberation mapping or dynamical modeling. We obtained new Swift observations of PG 1426+015, which has the largest estimated black hole mass of the AGNs in our sample. We develop a novel statistical method to estimate the PSD from a light curve of photon counts with arbitrary sampling, eliminating the need to bin a light curve to achieve Gaussian statistics, and we use this technique to estimate the X-ray variability parameters for the faint AGNs in our sample. We find that the normalization of the high-frequency X-ray PSD is inversely proportional to black hole mass. We discuss how to use this scaling relationship to obtain black hole mass estimates from the short timescale X-ray variability amplitude with precision ∼0.38 dex. The amplitude of optical variability on timescales of days is also anticorrelated with black hole mass, but with larger scatter. Instead, the optical variability amplitude exhibits the strongest anticorrelation with luminosity. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for estimating black hole mass from the amplitude of AGN variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A high-resolution study of the isotopes of solar flare nuclei

Individual isotopes of the elements He, C, N, O, Ne, and Mg with energies from 5 to 50 MeV per nucleon have been resolved in energetic flare particles during the September 23, 1978 solar flare event. In addition, an earlier determination of Ne-22/Ne-20 in this flare was improved on by extending the energy interval for isotope analysis. A significant difference between the isotopic composition of solar flare and solar wind neon is found, which is compared to similar evidence from studies of solar energetic particles implanted in lunar and meteoritic samples. Although limited by statistics, the measurements of He, C, N, O, and Mg isotopes are consistent with typical isotopic abundances found in other samples of solar system material. The ensemble of these results is used to test for the possibility of mass-dependent fractionation during solar flare acceleration and propagation.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification

This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics.

Hanson, John M.↗

Hybrid Gibbs Sampling and MCMC for CMB Analysis at Small Angular Scales

A) Gibbs Sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for "low-L" (as demonstrated on WMAP temperature polarization data). B) We are extending Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters for the entire range of angular scales relevant for Planck. C) Made possible by inclusion of foreground model parameters in Gibbs sampling and hybrid MCMC and Gibbs sampling for the low signal to noise (high-L) regime. D) Future items to be included in the Bayesian framework include: 1) Integration with Hybrid Likelihood (or posterior) code for cosmological parameters; 2) Include other uncertainties in instrumental systematics? (I.e. beam uncertainties, noise estimation, calibration errors, other).

Gibbs sampling↗

ULTRA-LUMINOUS X-RAY SOURCES IN THE MOST METAL POOR GALAXIES

Ultra-luminous X-ray sources (ULX) are X-ray binaries with L{sub x} >10{sup 39} erg s{sup -1}. The most spectacular examples of ULX occur in starburst galaxies and are now understood to be young, luminous high mass X-ray binaries. The conditions under which ULX form are poorly understood, but recent evidence suggests they may be more common in low metallicity systems. Here we investigate the hypothesis that ULX form preferentially in low metallicity galaxies by searching for ULX in a sample of extremely metal poor galaxies (XMPG) observed with the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. XMPG are defined as galaxies with log(O/H) + 12 < 7.65, or less than 5% solar. These are the most metal-deficient galaxies known, and a logical place to find ULX if they favor metal poor systems. We compare the number of ULX (corrected for background contamination) per unit of star formation (N{sub ULX}(SFR)) in the XMPG sample with N{sub ULX}(SFR) in a comparison sample of galaxies with higher metallicities taken from the Spitzer Infrared Galaxy Sample. We find that ULX occur preferentially in the metal poor sample with a formal statistical significance of 2.3{sigma}. We do not see strong evidence for a trend in the formation of ULX in the high metallicity sample: above 12+log(O/H) {approx} 8.0 the efficiency of ULX production appears to be flat. The effect we see is strongest in the lowest metallicity bin. We discuss briefly the implications of these results for the formation of black holes in low metallicity gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Poster - 56: Preliminary comparison of FF- and FFF-VMAT for prostate plans with higher rectal dose

Purpose: A recent retrospective study found 53 patients previously treated to 78Gy/39 using flattened filtered (FF) 6X-VMAT at GRRCC had rectal DVH more than one standard deviation higher than the average. This study was to investigate if using 6FFFor10FFF beams could reduce these DVHs without compromising target coverage. Methods: Twenty patients’ plans were re-planed with 2-arc 6X-VMAT, 6FFF-VMAT and 10FFF-VMAT using the Eclipse TPS following departmental protocol. All plans had the same optimization and normalization, and were evaluated against the acceptance criteria from the QUANTEC and Emami. Statistical differences in the mean dose to OARs (D{sub m}) and PTV homogeneity index (HI) between energies were tested using the paired sample Wilcoxon signed rank statistical method (p<0.05). Beam delivery accuracy was checked on five patients using portal dosimetry (PD). Results: The PTV HI for the 10FFF shows no statistical difference from the 6X. All the OARs, except left femoral head with 6FFF, have significantly lower Dm using 6FFF and 10FFF .There is no difference in the maximum doses to rectum and bladder and are limited by the prescribed doses. Measurements show good agreements in the gamma evaluation (3%/3mm) for all energies. Conclusion: This preliminary study shows that doses to the OARs are reduced using 10FFF for the same target coverage. The plans using 6FFF result in lower doses to some OARs, and statistically different PTV HI. All plans showed very good agreement with measurements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Blinded challenge for precision cosmology with large-scale structure: Results from effective field theory for the redshift-space galaxy power spectrum

An accurate theoretical template for the galaxy power spectrum is key for the success of ongoing and future spectroscopic surveys. We examine to what extent the effective field theory (EFT) of large-scale structure is able to provide such a template and correctly estimate cosmological parameters. To that end, we initiate a blinded challenge to infer cosmological parameters from the redshift-space power spectrum of high-resolution mock catalogs mimicking the BOSS galaxy sample but covering a 100 times larger cumulative volume. This gigantic simulation volume allows us to separate systematic bias due to theoretical modeling from the statistical error due to sample variance. The challenge is to measure three unknown input parameters used in the simulation: the Hubble constant, the matter density fraction, and the clustering amplitude. We present analyses done by two independent teams, who have fitted the mock simulation data generated by yet another independent group. This allows us to avoid any confirmation bias by analyzers and to pin down possible tuning of the specific EFT implementations. Both independent teams have recovered the true values of the input parameters within subpercent statistical errors corresponding to the total simulation volume.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Overview of Ground-Based Radar and Optical Measurements Utilized By the Nasa Orbital Debris Program Office

For over 30 years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has led the characterization of orbital debris (OD) too small to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), yet which may pose the greatest threat to human spaceflight and robotic missions. Measurements from specialized sensors, including ground-based radars and telescopes capable of detecting smaller objects, provide the foundation for developing statistical models to describe the current state and future evolution of the OD environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Since 1990, the ODPO has partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to collect data using the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) – formerly Haystack – to characterize OD in LEO with a sensitivity of approximately 5 mm at 1000 km altitude. In addition, since 1993, the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar, operated by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has provided data on OD as small as approximately 2-3 mm for altitudes below 1000 km, some of the most sensitive ground-based measurements achievable at these altitudes. Recently, collaborations with the 18 th Space Control Squadron of the U.S. Space Force have also provided the ODPO with special datasets from the Space Fence to extend coverage below the historical SSN limit of 10 cm and to characterize individual breakup events in LEO. For GEO altitudes, the Eugene Stansbery Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT), a joint NASA-Air Force Research Laboratory project that reached full operational capability in 2021, collects data on debris smaller than 1 m and provides coverage of debris in historically under-sampled high-altitude orbital regimes. This paper summarizes the radar and optical sensors utilized by the ODPO, their unique capabilities, and recent datasets and applications for statistical sampling of the dynamic OD environment.

Alyssa Manis↗

An Overview of Ground-Based Radar and Optical Measurements Utilized By the Nasa Orbital Debris Program Office

For over 30 years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has led the characterization of orbital debris (OD) too small to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), yet which may pose the greatest threat to human spaceflight and robotic missions. Measurements from specialized sensors, including ground-based radars and telescopes capable of detecting smaller objects, provide the foundation for developing statistical models to describe the current state and future evolution of the OD environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Since 1990, the ODPO has partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to collect data using the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) – formerly Haystack – to characterize OD in LEO with a sensitivity of approximately 5 mm at 1000 km altitude. In addition, since 1993, the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar, operated by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has provided data on OD as small as approximately 2-3 mm for altitudes below 1000 km, some of the most sensitive ground-based measurements achievable at these altitudes. Recently, collaborations with the 18 th Space Control Squadron of the U.S. Space Force have also provided the ODPO with special datasets from the Space Fence to extend coverage below the historical SSN limit of 10 cm and to characterize individual breakup events in LEO. For GEO altitudes, the Eugene Stansbery Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT), a joint NASA-Air Force Research Laboratory project that reached full operational capability in 2021, collects data on debris smaller than 1 m and provides coverage of debris in historically under-sampled high-altitude orbital regimes. This paper summarizes the radar and optical sensors utilized by the ODPO, their unique capabilities, and recent datasets and applications for statistical sampling of the dynamic OD environment.

Alyssa Manis↗

Statistics of Low-Mass Companions to Stars: Implications for Their Origin

One of the more significant results from observational astronomy over the past few years has been the detection, primarily via radial velocity studies, of low-mass companions (LMCs) to solar-like stars. The commonly held interpretation of these is that the majority are "extrasolar planets" whereas the rest are brown dwarfs, the distinction made on the basis of apparent discontinuity in the distribution of M sin i for LMCs as revealed by a histogram. We report here results from statistical analysis of M sin i, as well as of the orbital elements data for available LMCs, to rest the assertion that the LMCs population is heterogeneous. The outcome is mixed. Solely on the basis of the distribution of M sin i a heterogeneous model is preferable. Overall, we find that a definitive statement asserting that LMCs population is heterogeneous is, at present, unjustified. In addition we compare statistics of LMCs with a comparable sample of stellar binaries. We find a remarkable statistical similarity between these two populations. This similarity coupled with marked populational dissimilarity between LMCs and acknowledged planets motivates us to suggest a common origin hypothesis for LMCs and stellar binaries as an alternative to the prevailing interpretation. We discuss merits of such a hypothesis and indicate a possible scenario for the formation of LMCs.

Stepinski, T. F.↗

Entropy and its Relationship with Statistics

The purpose of our report is to discuss the notion of entropy and its relationship with statistics. Our goal is to provide a manner in which you can think about entropy, its central role within information theory and relationship with statistics. We review various relationships between information theory and statistics—nearly all are well-known but unfortunately are often not recognized. Entropy quantities the "average amount of surprise" in a random variable and lies at the heart of information theory, which studies the transmission, processing, extraction, and utilization of information. For us, data is information. What is the distinction between information theory and statistics? Information theorists work with probability distributions. Instead, statisticians work with samples. In so many words, information theory using samples is the practice of statistics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗

The Complete Light-curve Sample of Spectroscopically Confirmed SNe Ia from Pan-STARRS1 and Cosmological Constraints from the Combined Pantheon Sample

Here, we present optical light curves, redshifts, and classifications for 365 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) Medium Deep Survey. We detail improvements to the PS1 SN photometry, astrometry, and calibration that reduce the systematic uncertainties in the PS1 SN Ia distances. We combine the subset of 279 PS1 SNe Ia (0.03 < z < 0.68) with useful distance estimates of SNe Ia from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), SNLS, and various low-z and Hubble Space Telescope samples to form the largest combined sample of SNe Ia, consisting of a total of 1048 SNe Ia in the range of 0.01 < z < 2.3, which we call the Pantheon Sample. When combining Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements with the Pantheon SN sample, we find Ω m = 0.307 ± 0.012 and w = -1.026 ± 0.041 for the wCDM model. When the SN and CMB constraints are combined with constraints from BAO and local H 0 measurements, the analysis yields the most precise measurement of dark energy to date: w 0 = -1.007 ± 0.089 and w α = -0.222 ± 0.407 for the w 0 w α CDM model. Tension with a cosmological constant previously seen in an analysis of PS1 and low-z SNe has diminished after an increase of 2× in the statistics of the PS1 sample, improved calibration and photometry, and stricter light-curve quality cuts. We find that the systematic uncertainties in our measurements of dark energy are almost as large as the statistical uncertainties, primarily due to limitations of modeling the low-redshift sample. This must be addressed for future progress in using SNe Ia to measure dark energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating cosmological biases using photometric redshifts for Type Ia Supernova cosmology with the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program

Cosmological analyses with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) have traditionally been reliant on spectroscopy for both classifying the type of supernova and obtaining reliable redshifts to measure the distance–redshift relation. While obtaining a host-galaxy spectroscopic redshift for most SNe is feasible for small-area transient surveys, it will be too resource intensive for upcoming large-area surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will observe on the order of millions of SNe. Here, we use data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to address this problem with photometric redshifts (photo-z) inferred directly from the SN light curve in combination with Gaussian and full p(z) priors from host-galaxy photo-z estimates. Using the DES 5-yr photometrically classified SN sample, we consider several photo-z algorithms as host-galaxy photo-z priors, including the Self-Organizing Map redshifts (SOMPZ), Bayesian Photometric Redshifts (BPZ), and Directional-Neighbourhood Fitting (DNF) redshift estimates employed in the DES 3 × 2 point analyses. With detailed catalogue-level simulations of the DES 5-yr sample, we find that the simulated w can be recovered within ±0.02 when using SN+SOMPZ or DNF prior photo-z, smaller than the average statistical uncertainty for these samples of 0.03. With data, we obtain biases in w consistent with simulations within ~1σ for three of the five photo-z variants. We further evaluate how photo-z systematics interplay with photometric classification and find classification introduces a subdominant systematic component. This work lays the foundation for next-generation fully photometric SNe Ia cosmological analyses.

(cosmology:) dark energy↗

AGN Activity in Nucleated Galaxies as Measured by Chandra

Motivated by theoretical expectations that nuclear star clusters (NSCs) in galactic centers may provide a favorable environment for supermassive black holes to form and/or efficiently grow, we set out to measure the fraction of nearby nucleated galaxies that also host an active galactic nucleus. We targeted a distance-limited sample of 98 objects with the Chandra X-ray Telescope, down to a uniform X-ray luminosity threshold of ∼10{sup 38} erg s{sup −1}. The sample is composed of 47 late-types and 51 early-types, enabling us to further investigate the active fraction as a function of galactic morphology. After correcting for contamination to the nuclear X-ray signal from bright X-ray binaries, we measure an active fraction f=11.2%{sub −4.9}{sup +7.4} (1σ C.L.) across the whole sample, in agreement with previous estimates based on a heterogeneous combination of optical, X-ray, and radio diagnostics, by Seth et al. After accounting for the different stellar mass distributions in our samples, we find no statistically significant difference in the active fraction of early- versus late-type nucleated galaxies, with f=10.6%{sub −4.9}{sup +11.9} and 10.8%{sub −6.3}{sup +11.3}, respectively. For the early-type nucleated galaxies, we are able to carry out a controlled comparison with a parent sample of non-nucleated galaxies covering the same stellar mass range, again finding no statistically significant difference in the active fraction. Taken at face value, our findings suggest that the presence of an NSC does not facilitate or enhance accretion-powered emission from a nuclear supermassive black hole. This is true even for late-type nucleated galaxies, home to bluer NSCs and arguably larger gas reservoirs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Analysis of the Statistics and Systematics of Limb Anomaly Detections in HST/STIS Transit Images of Europa

Several recent studies derived the existence of plumes on Jupiter’s moon Europa. The only technique that provided multiple detections is the far-ultraviolet imaging observations of Europa in transit of Jupiter taken by the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this study, we reanalyze the three HST/STIS transit images in which Sparks et al. identified limb anomalies as evidence for Europa’s plume activity. After reproducing the results of Sparks et al., we find that positive outliers are similarly present in the images as the negative outliers that were attributed to plume absorption. A physical explanation for the positive outliers is missing. We then investigate the systematic uncertainties and statistics in the images and identify two factors that are crucial when searching for anomalies around the limb. One factor is the alignment between the actual and assumed locations of Europa on the detector. A misalignment introduces distorted statistics, most strongly affecting the limb above the darker trailing hemisphere where the plumes were detected. The second factor is a discrepancy between the observation and the model used for comparison, adding uncertainty in the statistics. When accounting for these two factors, the limb minima (and maxima) are consistent with random statistical occurrence in a sample size given by the number of pixels in the analyzed limb region. The plume candidate features in the three analyzed images can be explained by purely statistical fluctuations and do not provide evidence for absorption by plumes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Visual Sample Plan Version 7.0 User's Guide

User's guide for VSP 7.0 This user's guide describes Visual Sample Plan (VSP) Version 7.0 and provides instructions for using the software. VSP selects the appropriate number and location of environmental samples to ensure that the results of statistical tests performed to provide input to risk decisions have the required confidence and performance. VSP Version 7.0 provides sample-size equations or algorithms needed by specific statistical tests appropriate for specific environmental sampling objectives. It also provides data quality assessment and statistical analysis functions to support evaluation of the data and determine whether the data support decisions regarding sites suspected of contamination. The easy-to-use program is highly visual and graphic. VSP runs on personal computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems (XP, Vista, Windows 7, and Windows 8). Designed primarily for project managers and users without expertise in statistics, VSP is applicable to two- and three-dimensional populations to be sampled (e.g., rooms and buildings, surface soil, a defined layer of subsurface soil, water bodies, and other similar applications) for studies of environmental quality. VSP is also applicable for designing sampling plans for assessing chem/rad/bio threat and hazard identification within rooms and buildings, and for designing geophysical surveys for unexploded ordnance (UXO) identification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗