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At least 739 records · Page 41

Lower Snake River Dams Contribution to Grid Services

Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Argon-isotopic Age Dating Analyses for Eastern Snake River Plain Volcanic Rock Samples

Argon-isotopic age dating analyses were conducted on 25 volcanic rock samples obtained from 22 boreholes and collected at three surface locations in the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP). The analyses were conducted to reduce uncertainties for characterizing volcanic hazards at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as part of the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA). Results of the argon-isotopic age dating analyses will be used to estimate the recurrence of basaltic and silicic volcanism and for assessing the spatial and temporal distributions of volcanic events in the ESRP.

58 - GEOSCIENCES↗

Synthetic Atmospheric River Ensembles Generated by Deep-AR

This dataset contains 35,850 synthetic landfalling atmospheric river (AR) realizations generated by the Deep-AR two-stage deep-learning framework over the Northeast Pacific and U.S. West Coast. The archive contains 25 stochastic ensemble members for each of 1,434 held-out observed seed events. Each synthetic realization is initialized from conditions 48 hours before the corresponding observed AR landfall and is generated autoregressively at 6-hour intervals over a 144-hour period. Deep-AR combines a deterministic residual network (ResNet) that advances the large-scale atmospheric state with a Wasserstein generative adversarial network (WGAN) that produces stochastic, high-resolution fields. Each HDF5 file contains 0.25° gridded synthetic integrated vapor transport components (qu, qv), 10 m wind components (u10, v10), and 6-hour accumulated precipitation on a common 200 × 480 grid. The files also include coordinate and datetime arrays. This dataset supports AR hazard analysis, ensemble-based uncertainty characterization, precipitation-extremes research, and regional stress testing. Synthetic files follow the naming convention deepar.model.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.vNN.h5. YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS identifies the UTC initial-condition timestamp, which occurs 48 hours before the diagnosed observed landfall, and vNN identifies the zero-padded ensemble member, ranging from v01 through v25. Each synthetic file can be paired with its corresponding observed file by matching the initial-condition timestamp. The paired observed file follows the naming convention deepar.obs.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.h5 and is available in the separately registered oracle/deepar.obs dataset at https://wdh.energy.gov/ds/oracle/deepar.obs (DOI: https://doi.org/10.21947/3377671).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hydropower Infrastructure - LAkes, Reservoirs, and RIvers (HILARRI)

HILARRI is a database of links between major datasets of operational hydropower dams and powerplants (National Inventory of Dams (2019), Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD v1.3), Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA 2020), and inland water bodies (NHDPlusV2 river network, NHD water bodies, NHD Watershed Boundary Dataset, HydroLAKES).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hydropower Infrastructure - LAkes, Reservoirs, and RIvers (HILARRI), V2

HILARRI Version 2 is a database of links between major datasets of operational hydropower dams and powerplants (National Inventory of Dams (2021), Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD v1.3), Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA 2022), and inland water bodies (NHDPlusV2 river network, NHD water bodies, NHD Watershed Boundary Dataset, HydroLAKES).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Agro-IBIS/THMB Modeled Yield, Nitrogen Loss, and Profitability Maps for the Raccoon River Basin, Iowa, USA

This data was used to assess the potential for improving water quality in this watershed when integrating miscanthus, a bioenergy perennial grass, on to areas of low profit under current corn-soybean management and areas of high nitrogen leaching under both current and future climate conditions. This dataset includes all observations (yield, streamflow, nitrogen loads) and model simulation data used from Dr. Kelsie Ferin’s (former PhD student with Dr. Andy VanLoocke, ISU Dept. of Agronomy) dissertation and publication in Global Change Biology – Bioenergy (DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.13078). Modeled output included in this dataset includes corn, soybean, and miscanthus yields, nitrogen leaching rates, net mineralization rates, land use cover fractions with and without the inclusion of miscanthus, profitability maps, additional soil property maps, and simulated streamflow and nitrogen loads near the outlet of the Raccoon River Basin (Van Meter, Iowa) for both historical and future climate conditions. This dataset includes a mixture of netCDF, .tiff, .csv, and .xlsx files. See README.pdf for more information.

Ferin, Kelsie↗

Simulation of high-frequency dissolved oxygen dynamics in a shallow estuary, the Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay

Understanding shallow water biogeochemical dynamics is a challenge in coastal regions, due to the presence of highly variable land-water interface fluxes, tight coupling with sediment processes, tidal dynamics, and diurnal variability in biogeochemical processes. While the deployment of continuous monitoring devices has improved our understanding of high-frequency (12 - 24 hours) variability and spatial heterogeneity in shallow regions, mechanistic modeling of these dynamics has lagged behind conceptual and empirical models. The inherent complexity of shallow water systems is represented in the Corsica River estuary, a small basin within the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem, where abundant monitoring data have been collected from long-term monitoring stations, continuous monitoring sensors, synoptic sensor surveys, and measurements of sediment-water fluxes. A state-of-the-art modeling system, the Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM), was applied to the Corsica domain with a high-resolution grid and nutrient loads from the most recent version of the Chesapeake Bay watershed model. The Corsica SCHISM model reproduced observed high-frequency variability in dissolved oxygen, as well as seasonal variability in chlorophyll-a and sediment-water fluxes. Time-series signal analyses using Empirical Model Decomposition and spectral analysis revealed that the diurnal and M2 tide frequencies are the dominant high-frequency modes and physical transport contributes a larger share to dissolved oxygen budgets than biogeochemical processes on an hourly time scale. Heterogeneity and patchiness in dissolved oxygen resulting from phytoplankton distributions and geometry-driven eddies amplify the physical transport effect, and on longer time scales oxygen is controlled more by photosynthesis and respiration. Our simulation demonstrates that interactions among physical and biological dynamics generate complex high-frequency variability in water quality and non-linear reposes to nutrient loading and environmental forcing in shallow water systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Skill of Mesoscale Models in Forecasting Springtime Macrophysical Cloud Properties at the Savannah River Site in the Southeastern US

Predicting boundary layer clouds is important for the accurate modeling of pollutant dispersion. Higher resolution mesoscale models would be expected to produce better forecasts of cloud properties that affect dispersion. Using ceilometer observations, we assess the skill of two operational mesoscale models (RAMS and WRF) to forecast cloud base altitude and cloud fraction at the Savannah River Site in the southeastern US during the springtime. Verifications were performed at small spatial and temporal scales necessary for dispersion modeling. Both models were unreliable with a 50% (RAMS) and a 46% (WRF) rate of predicting clouds observed by the ceilometer which led to low cloud fraction predictions. Results indicated that WRF better predicted daytime cloud bases from convection that occurred frequently later in the period and RAMS better predicted nighttime cloud bases. Using root mean squared error (RMSE) to score the forecast periods also highlighted this diurnal dichotomy, with WRF scores better during the day and RAMS scores better at night. Analysis of forecast errors revealed divergent model cloud base biases—WRF low and RAMS high. A hybrid solution which weighs more heavily the RAMS nighttime forecasts and WRF daytime forecasts will likely provide the best prediction of cloud properties for dispersion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hierarchical Fractional Advection-Dispersion Equation (FADE) to Quantify Anomalous Transport in River Corridor over a Broad Spectrum of Scales: Theory and Applications

Fractional calculus-based differential equations were found by previous studies to be promising tools in simulating local-scale anomalous diffusion for pollutants transport in natural geological media (geomedia), but efficient models are still needed for simulating anomalous transport over a broad spectrum of scales. This study proposed a hierarchical framework of fractional advection-dispersion equations (FADEs) for modeling pollutants moving in the river corridor at a full spectrum of scales. Applications showed that the fixed-index FADE could model bed sediment and manganese transport in streams at the geomorphologic unit scale, whereas the variable-index FADE well fitted bedload snapshots at the reach scale with spatially varying indices. Further analyses revealed that the selection of the FADEs depended on the scale, type of the geomedium (i.e., riverbed, aquifer, or soil), and the type of available observation dataset (i.e., the tracer snapshot or breakthrough curve (BTC)). When the pollutant BTC was used, a single-index FADE with scale-dependent parameters could fit the data by upscaling anomalous transport without mapping the sub-grid, intermediate multi-index anomalous diffusion. Pollutant transport in geomedia, therefore, may exhibit complex anomalous scaling in space (and/or time), and the identification of the FADE’s index for the reach-scale anomalous transport, which links the geomorphologic unit and watershed scales, is the core for reliable applications of fractional calculus in hydrology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unnamed Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 ) from the Bolshoy Khailyk River, Western Sayans, Russia, and a Review of Related Compounds and Solid Solutions

We describe a potentially new species of a platinum cupride–stannide mineral (PCSM) of composition Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 ). It occurs in a placer deposit in the River Bolshoy Khailyk, southern Krasnoyarskiy kray, Russia. A synthetic equivalent of PCSM was obtained and characterized. The PCSM occurs as anhedral or subhedral grains up to 15 μm × 30 μm in association with various platinum-group minerals, Rh–Co-rich pentlandite and magnetite, all hosted by a placer grain of Cu–Au–Pt alloy. Synchrotron micro-Laue diffraction studies indicate that the PCSM mineral is tetragonal and belongs to the inferred space-group P4/mmm (#123). Its unit-cell parameters are a = 2.838 (3) Å, c = 3.650 (4) Å, and V = 29.40 (10) Å 3 , and Z = 1. The c:a ratio calculated from the unit-cell parameters is 1.286. These characteristics are in good agreement with those obtained for specimens of synthetic Pt(Cu 0.67 Sn 0.33 ). A review on related minerals and unnamed phases is provided to outline compositional variations and extents of solid solutions in the relevant systems PtNi–PtFe–PtCu, PdCu–PdHg–PdAu, PdHg–PtHg, and AuCu–PtCu. The PCSM-bearing mineralization appears to be related genetically with an ophiolitic source-rock of the Aktovrakskiy complex of the western Sayans. The unnamed phase likely crystallized from microvolumes of a highly fractionated melt rich in Cu and Sn.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy Study of a Powder River Basin Coal-Derived Fly Ash

Examination of a fly ash derived from the combustion of a low-S, subbituminous Powder River Basin coal by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and High-resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HRTEM), both supplemented by Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), showed that the fly ashes were dominated by amorphous phases, Ca-rich plagioclase feldspars, Mg-rich phases, complex Ca-Mg-Al-Si-Ti-Fe grains, and trace amounts of REE-rich particles. Many of the particles were rimmed by a Ca-S, possibly a sulfate. HRTEM-EDS examination of a REE-rich particle proved it to be a mix of light- and heavy-rare earth minerals mixed with amorphous phases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Riparian Buffer Designs to Climate Change—Nutrient and Sediment Loading to Streams: A Case Study in the Albemarle-Pamlico River Basins (USA) Using HAWQS

Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) provide multiple benefits to watershed ecosystems. We aimed to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of the RBZ designs to climate change nutrient and sediment loadings to streams. We designed 135 simulation scenarios starting with the six baselines RBZs (grass, urban, two-zone forest, three-zone forest, wildlife, and naturalized) in three 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds within the Albemarle-Pamlico river basin (USA). Using the hydrologic and water quality system (HAWQS), we assessed the sensitivity of the designs to five water quality indicator (WQI) parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), sediment (SD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BD). To understand the climate mitigation potential of RBZs, we identified a subset of future climate change projection models of air temperature and precipitation using EPA’s Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online tool. Analyses revealed optimal RBZ designs for the three watersheds. In terms of watershed ecosystem services sustainability, the optimal Urban RBZ in contemporary climate (1983–2018) reduced SD from 61–96%, TN from 34–55%, TP from 9–48%, and BD from 53–99%, and raised DO from 4–10% with respect to No-RBZ in the three watersheds. The late century’s (2070–2099) extreme mean annual climate changes significantly increased the projected SD and BD; however, the addition of urban RBZs was projected to offset the climate change reducing SD from 28–94% and BD from 69–93% in the watersheds. All other types of RBZs are also projected to fully mitigate the climate change impacts on WQI parameters except three-zone RBZ.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Description of Pegethrix niliensis sp. nov., a Novel Cyanobacterium from the Nile River Basin, Egypt: A Polyphasic Analysis and Comparative Study of Related Genera in the Oculatellales Order

In this paper, we examine the filamentous cyanobacterial strain NILCB16 and describe it as a new species within the genus Pegethrix. The original population was sampled from a mat growing in an irrigation canal in the Nile River, Egypt. Initially classified under Plectonema or Planktolyngbya, the strain is a potential producer of the toxins microcystin and β-N-Methylamino-L-Alanine (BMAA). Additionally, we reviewed the taxonomic relationships between the Oculatellales genera. To describe the new species, we conducted a polyphasic study, encompassing 16S rRNA gene phylogenetic analyses performed using both Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods, sequence identity (p-distance) analysis, 16S-23S ITS secondary structures, and morphological and habitat comparisons. The phylogenetic analysis revealed that strain NILCB16 clustered within the Pegethrix clade with strong phylogenetic support, but in a distinct position from other species in the genus. The strain shared a maximum 16S rRNA gene identity of 97.3% with P. qiandaoensis and 96.1% with the type species, P. bostrychoides. Morphologically, NILCB16 can be differentiated from other species in the genus by its lack of false branching. Our phylogenetic analyses also show that Pegethrix, Cartusia, Elainella, and Maricoleus are clustered with strong phylogenetic support. They exhibit high 16S rRNA gene identity and are morphologically indistinguishable, suggesting they could potentially be merged into a single genus in the future.

Hentschke, Guilherme Scotta (ORCID:000000034396024↗

Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers

Abstract. An extreme warming event near the North Pole, with 2 m temperature rising above 0 °C, was observed in late December 2015. This specific event has been attributed to cyclones and their associated moisture intrusions. However, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of similar events in the historical record. Here, using data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, version 5 (ERA5), we study these winter extreme warming events with 2 m temperature over a grid point above 0 °C over the high Arctic (poleward of 80° N) that occurred during 1980–2021. In ERA5, such wintertime extreme warming events can only be found over the Atlantic sector. They occur rarely over many grid points, with a total absence during some winters. Furthermore, even when occurring, they tend to be short-lived, with the majority of the events lasting for less than a day. By examining their surface energy budget, we found that these events transition with increasing latitude from a regime dominated by turbulent heat flux into the one dominated by downward longwave radiation. Positive sea level pressure anomalies which resemble blocking over northern Eurasia are identified as a key ingredient in driving these events, as they can effectively deflect the eastward propagating cyclones poleward, leading to intense moisture and heat intrusions into the high Arctic. Using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm, the roles of ARs in contributing to the occurrence of these extreme warming events defined at the grid-point scale are explicitly quantified. The importance of ARs in inducing these events increases with latitude. Poleward of about 83° N, 100 % of these events occurred under AR conditions, corroborating that ARs were essential in contributing to the occurrence of these events. Over the past 4 decades, both the frequency, duration, and magnitude of these events have been increasing significantly. As the Arctic continues to warm, these events are likely to increase in both frequency, duration, and magnitude, with great implications for the local sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface radiation trends at North Slope of Alaska influenced by large-scale circulation and atmospheric rivers

Arctic amplification manifests as a pervasive warming trend emerging over the past century in near-surface air temperature throughout the Arctic that is double the globally averaged temperature increase throughout most of the year. It results from complex processes involving oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial components which require detailed study to discern roles of the fundamental processes involved to improve predictions of the Arctic environment. We report on signals that are beginning to emerge, on a timescale predicted by recent satellite remote sensing studies, from the unique 25 year record of detailed surface-based radiometer measurements obtained by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site at Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Statistically significant warming trends are found at the site in the boreal fall, while a decrease in net radiation occurs in late summer. This decrease is driven primarily by the decrease in shortwave radiation resulting from increasing cloud liquid water path as observed by the microwave radiometer. The magnitude of the liquid water path trends is slightly larger than the root mean square error (RMSE) due to natural variability, while the magnitude of the net radiation trends is smaller than the RMSE natural variability, emphasizing that these signals are only just emerging. Analysis of prevailing meteorological regimes linking NSA with the Arctic Ocean and subarctic latitudes, and atmospheric rivers, suggests that specific changing circulation patterns are the primary driver for these summertime trends.

Lubin, Dan [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (Un↗

Ecosystem leaf area, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration responses to wildfire in the Columbia River basin

Wildfires impact vegetation mortality and productivity and are increasing in intensity, frequency, and spatial area in the western United States. The rates of vegetation recovery after fires play a major role in the reestablishment of biomass and ecosystem functioning (e.g., structure, resilience, and productivity), but such recovery rates are poorly understood. Here we use remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify the resistance and resilience of leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET) to 138 wildfires of various burn severity across the Columbia River basin (CRB) of the Pacific Northwest in 2015. Increasing burn severity caused lower resistance and resilience for all three variables. Resistance and resilience are highest in grasslands, intermediate in savanna, and lowest in needleleaf evergreen forests, consistent with the adaptation of these vegetation types to fire. LAI has consistently lower resistance and resilience than GPP and ET, which is consistent with physical and physiological mechanisms that compensate for reduced LAI. Resilience is influenced by precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and burn severity across all three vegetation types; however, burn severity plays a more minor role in grasslands. Increasing wildfire severity will reduce the resistance and resilience and lengthen the recovery time of vegetation structure and fluxes with climate change, with significant consequences for the provision of ecosystem functioning and implications for model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric river representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1.0

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, simulation, and prediction project developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). With an emphasis on supporting the DOE's energy mission, understanding and quantifying how well the model simulates water cycle processes is of particular importance. Here, we evaluate E3SM version 1.0 (v1.0) for its ability to represent atmospheric rivers (ARs), which play significant roles in water vapor transport and precipitation. The characteristics and precipitation associated with global ARs in E3SM at standard resolution (1∘ × 1∘) are compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). Global patterns of AR frequencies in E3SM show high degrees of correlation (≥0.97) with MERRA2 and low mean absolute errors (MAEs; <1 %) annually, seasonally, and across different ensemble members. However, some large-scale condition biases exist, leading to AR biases – most significant of which are the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a stronger and/or equatorward-shifted subtropical jet during boreal and austral winters, and enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer. By comparing atmosphere-only and fully coupled simulations, we attribute the sources of the biases to the atmospheric component or to a coupling response. Using relationships revealed in Dong et al. (2021), we provide evidence showing the stronger North Pacific jet in winter and the enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer, associated with E3SM's double ITCZ and related weaker Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), respectively, which are significant sources of the AR biases found in the coupled simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin in different versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model

The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) aimed to address the challenges related to this. We evaluated three versions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model with two different horizontal grid spacings against in situ and remote sensing observations to investigate how developments in physical parameterizations and numerical methods targeted during WFIP2 impacted the simulation of a persistent cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin. Differences amongst model versions were most apparent in simulated temperature and low-level cloud fields during the persistent phase of the cold-air pool. The model developments led to an enhanced low-level cloud cover, resulting in better agreement with the observations. This removed a diurnal cycle in the near-surface temperature bias at stations throughout the basin by reducing a cold bias during the night and a warm bias during the day. However, low-level clouds did not clear sufficiently during daytime in the newest model version, which leaves room for further model developments. The model developments also led to a better representation of the decay of the cold-air pool by slowing down its erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗