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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Characterization of 316L Stainless Steel after Solid Phase Processing using Ultrasonic NDE Method

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). A motivation of the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project was to demonstrate ultrasonic testing as a nondestructive evaluation method to complement traditional destructive methods for characterizing material microstructure with emphasis on grain size determination using a method that may have future applications for real-time inline process monitoring. The objective of the work described in this report is to establish the process and an analysis method for measuring grain sizes of polycrystalline metals with ultrafine grains using ultrasonic shear wave backscattering, building on prior studies on coarser-grained material. The work involves five tasks: Measured ultrasonic backscattering experimentally for a series of 316L stainless steel specimens with various grain sizes made by friction stir processing. Calculated ultrasonic backscattering coefficients from experimental data based on a physical measurement model. Measured ground truth grain sizes of the specimens from electron backscatter diffraction grain boundary images using a generalization of the ASTM E112 (ASTM 2021) intercept method. Built a curve of ultrasonic backscattering coefficients versus the ground truth intercept-based grain sizes to determine the correlation between mean grain sizes and ultrasonic measurements. Demonstrated the ability of using the correlation curve to deduce grain sizes with measured ultrasonic backscattering coefficients for a few 316L stainless steel specimens whose grain sizes were unknown beforehand but were targeted to be an extrapolation to larger grain sizes than used to formulate the correlation curves. Experimental procedures and computational algorithms are developed and validated for these tasks. This work establishes an ultrasonic technique for characterizing material microstructure with ultrafine grains that are often resulted by solid-phase processing. The technique is nondestructive, and it has the potential to be used for real time inline process monitoring. This work successfully demonstrates the viability of an ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation method for microstructural characterization of material having ultrafine grain structure (as small as 1?mm) and produced by an advanced manufacturing method. This includes a demonstration of the method to extrapolate to other conditions. While not demonstrated here, the method is expected to be viable for in-line, or near-inline, process monitoring in advanced manufacturing applications with suitable consideration for access of instrumentation to the material being manufactured.

316 L Stainless Steel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regulating off-centering distortion maximizes photoluminescence in halide perovskites

Abstract Metal halide perovskites possess unique atomic and electronic configurations that endow them with high defect tolerance and enable high-performance photovoltaics and optoelectronics. Perovskite light-emitting diodes have achieved an external quantum efficiency of over 20%. Despite tremendous progress, fundamental questions remain, such as how structural distortion affects the optical properties. Addressing their relationships is considerably challenging due to the scarcity of effective diagnostic tools during structural and property tuning as well as the limited tunability achievable by conventional methods. Here, using pressure and chemical methods to regulate the metal off-centering distortion, we demonstrate the giant tunability of photoluminescence (PL) in both the intensity (>20 times) and wavelength (>180 nm/GPa) in the highly distorted halide perovskites [CH3NH3GeI3, HC(NH2)2GeI3, and CsGeI3]. Using advanced in situ high-pressure probes and first-principles calculations, we quantitatively reveal a universal relationship whereby regulating the level of off-centering distortion towards 0.2 leads to the best PL performance in the halide perovskites. By applying this principle, intense PL can still be induced by substituting CH3NH3+ with Cs+ to control the distortion in (CH3NH3)1-xCsxGeI3, where the chemical substitution plays a similar role as external pressure. The compression of a fully substituted sample of CsGeI3 further tunes the distortion to the optimal value at 0.7 GPa, which maximizes the emission with a 10-fold enhancement. This work not only demonstrates a quantitative relationship between structural distortion and PL property of the halide perovskites but also illustrates the use of knowledge gained from high-pressure research to achieve the desired properties by ambient methods.

halide perovskites↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Temporal Predictive Modelling of Sorghum Biomass Using UAV-Based Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

High-throughput phenotyping using high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution remote sensing (RS) data has become a critical part of the plant breeding chain focused on reducing the time and cost of the selection process for the “best” genotypes with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In this paper, the potential of accurate and reliable sorghum biomass prediction using visible and near infrared (VNIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral data as well as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired by sensors mounted on UAV platforms is investigated. Predictive models are developed using classical regression-based machine learning methods for nine experiments conducted during the 2017 and 2018 growing seasons at the Agronomy Center for Research and Education (ACRE) at Purdue University, Indiana, USA. The impact of the regression method, data source, timing of RS and field-based biomass reference data acquisition, and the number of samples on the prediction results are investigated. R2 values for end-of-season biomass ranged from 0.64 to 0.89 for different experiments when features from all the data sources were included. Geometry-based features derived from the LiDAR point cloud to characterize plant structure and chemistry-based features extracted from hyperspectral data provided the most accurate predictions. Evaluation of the impact of the time of data acquisition during the growing season on the prediction results indicated that although the most accurate and reliable predictions of final biomass were achieved using remotely sensed data from mid-season to end-of-season, predictions in mid-season provided adequate results to differentiate between promising varieties for selection. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the accuracies of the predictive models showed that both the data source and regression method are important factors for a reliable prediction; however, the data source was more important with 69% significance, versus 28% significance for the regression method.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electric and magnetic dipole strength in 112,114,116,118,120,124 Sn

Background: There is renewed interest in electric dipole strength distributions for a variety of reasons including the extraction of the dipole polarizability related to properties of the symmetry energy and a measure for the neutron skin thickness, understanding the structure of low-energy $\textit{E}$1 strength in nuclei with neutron excess, and establishing the systematics of the isovector giant dipole resonance (IVGDR). Inelastic proton scattering at energies of a few hundred MeV and very forward angles including 0° has been established as a tool for the study of electric and magnetic dipole strength distributions in nuclei. Purpose: The present work aims at a systematic investigation of the electric and magnetic dipole strength distributions in the chain of stable even-mass tin isotopes. Methods: Inelastic proton scattering experiments were performed at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics, Osaka, with a 295-MeV beam covering laboratory angles 0°–6° and excitation energies 6–22 MeV. Cross sections due to $\textit{E}$1 and $\textit{M}$1 excitations were extracted with a multipole decomposition analysis (MDA) and then converted to reduced transition probabilities with the “virtual photon method” for $\textit{E}$1 and the “unit cross section method” for $\textit{M}$1 excitations, respectively. Including a theory-aided correction for the high-excitation-energy region not covered experimentally, the electric dipole polarizability was determined from the $\textit{E}$1 strength distributions. Results: In this work, total photoabsorption cross sections derived from the $\textit{E}$1 and $\textit{M}$1 strength distributions show significant differences compared to those from previous ($\textit{γ, xn}$) experiments in the energy region of the IVGDR. The widths of the IVGDR deduced from the present data with a Lorentz parametrization show an approximately constant value of about 4.5 MeV in contrast to the large variations between isotopes observed in previous work. The IVGDR centroid energies are in good correspondence to expectations from empirical systematics of their mass dependence. Furthermore, a study of the dependence of the IVGDR energies on bulk matter properties is presented. The $\textit{E}$1 strengths below neutron threshold show fair agreement in this work with results from ($\textit{γ, γ'}$) experiments on 112,116,120,124 Sn in the energy region between 6 and 7 MeV, where also isoscalar $\textit{E}$1 strength was found for 124 Sn. At higher excitation energies, large differences are observed, pointing to a different nature of the excited states with small ground-state branching ratios. The isovector spin-$\textit{M}$1 strengths exhibit a broad distribution between 6 and 12 MeV in all studied nuclei. Conclusions: The present results contribute to the solution of a variety of nuclear structure problems including the systematics of the energy and width of the IVGDR, the structure of low-energy $\textit{E}$1 strength in nuclei, new constraints to energy density functionals (EDFs) aiming at a systematic description of the dipole polarizability across the nuclear chart, from which properties of the symmetry energy can be derived, and the systematics of the isovector spin-$\textit{M}$1 strength in heavy nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanistic Studies of Continuous Partial Methane Oxidation on Cu−Zeolites Using Kinetic and Spectroscopic Methods

Abstract Over the past few decades, a significant amount of research effort has focused on investigating the active site requirements and reaction mechanisms for partial methane oxidation (PMO) to methanol over copper–exchanged zeolites during stoichiometric and stepwise chemical looping routes. More recently, research efforts have expanded to include investigating the PMO reaction in a continuous catalytic regime, primarily focusing on determining the influence of catalyst composition on Cu speciation and structure and, in turn, on PMO rate and selectivity. The structures of candidate Cu active sites are commonly studied using a combination of ex situ and in situ spectroscopic approaches. In this perspective, we critically examine the prior literature on catalytic PMO over Cu–zeolites to identify key knowledge gaps that remain in our understanding as motivation for future research efforts. We identify opportunities for future research to address these gaps by adapting analogous interrogation techniques that have been successfully used to elucidate the active site requirements and mechanistic details of another catalytic redox reaction cycle on Cu–zeolites, the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) of nitrogen oxides (NO x ).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel Photonuclear Methods to Produce an Argon-37 Standard

The mission of this research is to explore novel photonuclear-based pathways into the production of 37Ar. Above-background detection levels of 37Ar uniquely indicates the occurrence of an underground nuclear explosion, produced from fission neutrons interacting in the surrounding environment through the 40Ca(n,a)37Ar reaction. The half-life of 35 days allows on-site inspectors (OSI) adequate time following the nuclear event to detect 37Ar and verify compliance or defiance of non-proliferation treaties such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). An 37Ar standard would give OSI the ability to calibrate their detectors and measure detector efficiency allowing for the quantification of detected activity, give OSI authentic samples to test detectors in field exercises, and improve models predicting diffusion pathways of 37Ar through the underground environment.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comprehensive guide to CAN IDS data and introduction of the ROAD dataset

Although ubiquitous in modern vehicles, Controller Area Networks (CANs) lack basic security properties and are easily exploitable. A rapidly growing field of CAN security research has emerged that seeks to detect intrusions or anomalies on CANs. Producing vehicular CAN data with a variety of intrusions is a difficult task for most researchers as it requires expensive assets and deep expertise. To illuminate this task, we introduce the first comprehensive guide to the existing open CAN intrusion detection system (IDS) datasets. We categorize attacks on CANs including fabrication (adding frames, e.g., flooding or targeting and ID), suspension (removing an ID’s frames), and masquerade attacks (spoofed frames sent in lieu of suspended ones). We provide a quality analysis of each dataset; an enumeration of each datasets’ attacks, benefits, and drawbacks; categorization as real vs. simulated CAN data and real vs. simulated attacks; whether the data is raw CAN data or signal-translated; number of vehicles/CANs; quantity in terms of time; and finally a suggested use case of each dataset. State-of-the-art public CAN IDS datasets are limited to real fabrication (simple message injection) attacks and simulated attacks often in synthetic data, lacking fidelity. In general, the physical effects of attacks on the vehicle are not verified in the available datasets. Only one dataset provides signal-translated data but is missing a corresponding “raw” binary version. This issue pigeon-holes CAN IDS research into testing on limited and often inappropriate data (usually with attacks that are too easily detectable to truly test the method). The scarcity of appropriate data has stymied comparability and reproducibility of results for researchers. As our primary contribution, we present the Real ORNL Automotive Dynamometer (ROAD) CAN IDS dataset, consisting of over 3.5 hours of one vehicle’s CAN data. ROAD contains ambient data recorded during a diverse set of activities, and attacks of increasing stealth with multiple variants and instances of real (i.e. non-simulated) fuzzing, fabrication, unique advanced attacks, and simulated masquerade attacks. To facilitate a benchmark for CAN IDS methods that require signal-translated inputs, we also provide the signal time series format for many of the CAN captures. Our contributions aim to facilitate appropriate benchmarking and needed comparability in the CAN IDS research field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries via Electrochemical Recovery: A Mini-Review

With the rising demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), it is crucial to develop recycling methods that minimize environmental impacts and ensure resource sustainability. The focus of this short review is on the electrochemical techniques used in LIB recycling, particularly electrochemical leaching and electrodeposition. Our summary covers the latest research, highlighting the principles, progress, and challenges tied to these methods. By examining the current state of electrochemical recovery, this review intends to provide guidance for future advancements and enhance LIB recycling efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nickel Sulfide-Nanowire-Filled Carbon Nanotubes as an Efficient Overall Water Splitting Electrocatalyst

Pursuing stable, efficient, and cost-effective nanostructured bifunctional electrocatalysts is crucial for advancing the electrochemical water splitting process and enabling clean hydrogen energy production. In recent years, considerable efforts have focused on developing highly efficient and durable commercial electrocatalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) and overall water splitting (OWS). This research introduces an OWS electrocatalyst-nickel sulfide-filled carbon nanotubes grown on a carbon cloth substrate (Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC), synthesized via a one-step in-situ process. The synergistic integration of metal sulfide (Ni 3 S 2 ) and carbon nanotubes provides abundant active sites for catalytic reactions, ensuring a robust composite nanostructure with enhanced durability. Furthermore, the electrocatalytic performance for OER and OWS has been significantly improved by a simple acid treatment to the electrocatalysts, which introduces physical and chemical defects, particularly oxygen functional groups (the acid-treated sample is termed as Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC-AT). As OER electrocatalysts, Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC and Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC-AT present overpotentials of 304 and 200 mV, respectively, for achieving a current density of 10 mA/cm 2 in the OER process. Furthermore, for complete water splitting in 1.0 M KOH electrolyte, Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC and Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC-AT exhibit potentials of 1.63 and 1.44 V, respectively, to achieve a current density of 10 mA/cm 2 when employed as both anode and cathode. Moreover, Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC and Ni 3 S 2 @CNTs/CC-AT demonstrate durable nature for 22 and 20 h durability in the OER and OWS processes, respectively, offering a promising alternative to ruthenium- and iridium-based electrocatalysts for electrochemical hydrogen production through water splitting. In conclusion, the in-situ synthesis method and acid treatment strategy described in this research are promising approaches to fabricating high-performance encapsulated carbon-nanotube-based electrocatalysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Production, isolation, and shipment of clinically relevant quantities of astatine-211: A simple and efficient approach to increasing supply

The alpha emitter astatine-211 ( 211 At) is a promising candidate for cancer treatment based on Targeted Alpha (α) Therapy (TAT). A small number of facilities, distributed across the United States, are capable of accelerating α-particle beams to produce 211 At. However, challenges remain regarding strategic methods for shipping 211 At in a form adaptable to advanced radiochemistry reactions and other uses of the radioisotope. Purpose: Our method allows shipment of 211 At in various quantities in a form convenient for further radiochemistry. Procedures: For this study, a 3-octanone impregnated Amberchrom® CG300M resin bed in a column cartridge was used to separate 211 At from the bismuth matrix on site at the production accelerator (Texas A&M) in preparation for shipping. Aliquots of 6 M HNO 3 containing up to ≈2.22 GBq of 211 At from the dissolved target were successfully loaded and retained on columns. Exempt packages (<370 MBq) were shipped to a destination radiochemistry facility, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, in the form of a convenient air-dried column. Type A packages have been shipped overnight to University of Alabama at Birmingham. Main findings: Air-dried column hold times of various lengths did not inhibit simple and efficient recovery of 211 At. Solution eluted from the column was sufficiently high in specific activity to successfully radiolabel a model compound, 4-(4,4,5,5-tetramethyl-1,3,2-dioxaborolan-2-yl)aniline (1), with 211 At. The method to prepare and ship 211 At described in this manuscript has also been used to ship larger quantities of 211 At a greater distance to University of Alabama at Birmingham. Principal conclusions: The successful proof of this method paves the way for the distribution of 211 At from Texas A&M University to research institutions and clinical oncology centers in Texas and elsewhere. Finally, use of this simple method at other facilities has the potential increase the overall availability of 211 At for preclinical and clinical studies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Transport as a Tool for Scientific Discovery in Radiation Biology

This report summarizes findings from research conducted for the “Exploration of the Poten tial for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to Advance Low-Dose Radiation Biology Re search” (RadBio-AI) program, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under Awards KP1601011/FWP CC121 and KP1601017/FWP CC121. The research reported here was undertaken in an effort to assess the potential of optimal measure transport methods as components within the larger scope of a com putational framework envisioned to support research in the radiation biology domain. Within this effort, our interest centered on enabling a unified generic framework where probabilistic modeling, inference, and statistical learning can be carried out for a wide range of data distributions. As described next in Section 1 (and in more detail in our original publication), optimal measure transport offers the possibility of such unified approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Making Corgis Important for Honeycomb Classification: Adversarial Attacks on Concept-based Explainability Tools

Methods for model explainability have become increasingly critical for testing the fairness and soundness of deep learning. Concept-based interpretability techniques, which use a small set of human-interpretable concept exemplars in order to measure the influence of a concept on a model's internal representation of input, are an important thread in this line of research. In this work we show that these explainability methods can suffer the same vulnerability to adversarial attacks as the models they are meant to analyze. We demonstrate this phenomenon on two well-known concept-based interpretability methods: TCAV and faceted feature visualization. We show that by leveraging the geometry of the problem and carefully perturbing the examples of the concept that is being investigated, we can radically change the output of the interpretability method. The attacks that we propose can either induce positive interpretations (polka dots are an important concept for a model when classifying zebras) or negative interpretations (stripes are not an important factor in identifying images of a zebra). Our work highlights the fact that in safety-critical applications, there is need for security around not only the machine learning pipeline but also the model interpretation process.

Brown, Davis R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting and characterizing simulated sea breezes over the US northeastern coast with implications for offshore wind energy

Abstract. With the planned construction of vast offshore wind farms along the US East Coast, identifying and understanding key coastal processes, such as sea breezes, has become a critical need for the sustainability and development of US offshore wind energy. In this study, a new two-step identification method is proposed to detect and characterize three types of sea breezes (pure, corkscrew and backdoor) over the US northeastern coast from a year-long WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) simulation. The results suggest that the proposed detection method can identify the three different types of sea breezes in the model simulation. Key sea breeze features, such as the calm zone associated with pure sea breezes and coastal jets associated with corkscrew sea breezes, are evident in the sea breeze composite imagery. In addition, the simulated sea breeze events indicate a seasonal transition from pure to corkscrew sea breeze between March and August as the land–sea thermal contrast increases. Furthermore, the location and extension of the sea breeze front are different for each type of sea breeze, suggesting that the coastal impact of sea breeze varies with sea breeze type. From the wind energy perspective, the power production associated with a 10 MW offshore wind turbine would be approximately 3 to 4 times larger during a corkscrew sea breeze event than the other two types of sea breezes. This highlights the importance of identifying the correct type of sea breeze in numerical weather/wind energy forecasting.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Corrinoids as model nutrients to probe microbial interactions in a soil ecosystem

Earth’s soils are habitats for microbial communities that drive biogeochemical cycling, plant growth, and carbon storage and persistence. The thousands of microbial species living in soil form an intricate web of interactions involving the exchange of molecules produced by different microbes. Understanding in detail how these molecular exchanges occur and how they shape microbial communities may lead to new methods to improve soil health, bioremediation efforts, and better understanding of biogeochemical processes. The overall goal of this research is to gain a deeper knowledge of the microbial interactions that drive soil community structure. However, the high functional and genomic diversity in soil microbiomes has posed a challenge for current microbiology methods to achieve this goal. This research leverages a model group of key metabolites related to cobalamin (vitamin B 12 ), known as corrinoids, to investigate microbial interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probing Coherent States of Light and Matter in Two-Dimensional Semiconductors. Final Report

The ability to enhance light-matter interactions in engineered optical environments is well-established in micro- and nano-photonics. New classes of materials bring new rich correlations between spin, momentum, and light polarization that can be exploited in these photonic systems for information processing and low-power electronics. Interfacing these novel material features with strong optical interactions suggests the compelling capability to create hybrid light-matter systems harnessing low-energy and protected material properties such as spin. The long-term objective of this program was to investigate the interplay between pseudospin in 2D materials and light, revealing new coherent phenomena. The materials studied are the monolayer transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), which support polarization-sensitive optical transitions when isolated to a single sub-nanometer crystal layer in thickness. In particular, monolayer TMD semiconductors such as MoS 2 exhibit degenerate valleys in momentum space with distinct spin character. These valleys can be separately addressed by circularly polarized light, providing a tool for manipulation. Integrating this valley pseudospin of excitons in monolayer TMDs with engineered strong optical excitations to create novel coherent phenomena was a key long-term goal of this research. The scope of this research primarily focused on studying light-matter interactions of valley-sensitive excitations in monolayer TMDs. The scope also included the integration of monolayer materials that support valley-polarized emission into photonic devices. This approach extends prior work on exciton-polaritons in 2D materials toward a platform with far more control and improved light input and output characteristics to aid scalability of these polarization-sensitive phenomena to many-body, long-range optical networks. During the course of the five-year Early Career program, the approaches led to successful progress on each proposed aim. Initial successful work seeded additional research that developed from the main themes, while this program focus evolved toward coherent manipulation of valley polaritons and integration with photonics. Both of these advanced topics set the stage for new capabilities in future innovative research. The results of this project provide advances in materials and methods relevant for new visions of opto-electronics and photonics that can improve information processing in an era of increased focus on quantum and coherent phenomena. The research has also contributed to the training of two postdoctoral scholars and five graduate students.

2D Materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the economic costs of power outages owing to extreme events: A systematic review

Quantifying the economic cost of long-duration power outages is crucial to justifying investments in resiliency and reliability improvements. However, extensive study on the subject complicates the identification of power outage costs and determining the most suitable approach to quantify them for an individual, specific facility, particularly in the context of extreme events. Here, this research provides a systematic review of economic studies estimating the impact of environmental disasters at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. Of 326 articles, evaluating the costs of power outages in extreme events, this work identified 22 studies that attempted to quantify the economic costs. These findings indicate that quantifying power outage costs lacks standardization, posing challenges for comparing different studies. Most analyses aiming to quantify these costs for utilities, sectors, and the overall economy rely on outdated survey data, which offer generalized rather than specific cost estimations. The costs of power outages exhibit a significant dependence on factors such as the sector involved, the type of customer affected, and the outage duration. To quantify industry costs, the research in this study suggests that using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's online, open-access Customer Damage Function Calculator is the best option for individual-level assessments of industries, hospitals, offices, education centers, and similar facilities. However, the Interruption Cost Estimate Calculator can estimate outage costs across industrial, commercial, and residential sectors for macroeconomic outcomes. Finally, this article discusses the relative strengths of these methods and tools and the potential directions for future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗