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At least 739 records · Page 41

An Adaptive Sparse-Grid High-Order Stochastic Collocation Method for Bayesian Inference in Groundwater Reactive Transport Modeling

Although Bayesian analysis has become vital to the quantification of prediction uncertainty in groundwater modeling, its application has been hindered due to the computational cost associated with numerous model executions needed for exploring the posterior probability density function (PPDF) of model parameters. This is particularly the case when the PPDF is estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In this study, we develop a new approach that improves computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate system based on an adaptive sparse-grid high-order stochastic collocation (aSG-hSC) method. Unlike previous works using first-order hierarchical basis, we utilize a compactly supported higher-order hierar- chical basis to construct the surrogate system, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of computational simulations required. In addition, we use hierarchical surplus as an error indi- cator to determine adaptive sparse grids. This allows local refinement in the uncertain domain and/or anisotropic detection with respect to the random model parameters, which further improves computational efficiency. Finally, we incorporate a global optimization technique and propose an iterative algorithm for building the surrogate system for the PPDF with multiple significant modes. Once the surrogate system is determined, the PPDF can be evaluated by sampling the surrogate system directly with very little computational cost. The developed method is evaluated first using a simple analytical density function with multiple modes and then using two synthetic groundwater reactive transport models. The groundwater models represent different levels of complexity; the first example involves coupled linear reactions and the second example simulates nonlinear ura- nium surface complexation. The results show that the aSG-hSC is an effective and efficient tool for Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling in comparison with conventional MCMC sim- ulations. The computational efficiency is expected to be more beneficial to more computational expensive groundwater problems.

Zhang, Guannan↗

Improvement of machine learning enhanced genetic algorithm for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization

On top of the genetic algorithm enhanced by machine learning for nonlinear lattice optimization, as proposed in Li et al. (2018), an improved repopulation technique has been developed. Different weight coefficients for defining the “elite cluster” were compared to discern the fastest convergence in two classic optimization test problems. Additonally, the volume of the parameter space for generating potentially competitive candidates was further confined by repopulation in the vicinity of randomly selected “elite seeds”. The new repopulation technique significantly improves the quality of newly populated candidates by excluding the less competitive seeds introduced by the old repopulation algorithm. Finally, this technique has been validated, having a faster convergence for test problems first, and then applied to the nonlinear lattice optimization for the High Energy Photon Source storage ring.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hybrid optimization and Bayesian inference techniques for a non-smooth radiation detection problem

In this paper, we propose several algorithms to recover the location and intensity of a radiation source located in a simulated 250 × 180 m block of an urban center based on synthetic measurements. Radioactive decay and detection are Poisson random processes, so we employ likelihood functions based on this distribution. Owing to the domain geometry and the proposed response model, the negative logarithm of the likelihood is only piecewise continuous differentiable, and it has multiple local minima. To address these difficulties, we investigate three hybrid algorithms composed of mixed optimization techniques. For global optimization, we consider simulated annealing, particle swarm, and genetic algorithm, which rely solely on objective function evaluations; that is, they do not evaluate the gradient in the objective function. By employing early stopping criteria for the global optimization methods, a pseudo-optimum point is obtained. This is subsequently utilized as the initial value by the deterministic implicit filtering method, which is able to find local extrema in non-smooth functions, to finish the search in a narrow domain. These new hybrid techniques, combining global optimization and implicit filtering address, difficulties associated with the non-smooth response, and their performances, are shown to significantly decrease the computational time over the global optimization methods. To quantify uncertainties associated with the source location and intensity, we employ the delayed rejection adaptive Metropolis and DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithms. Finally, marginal densities of the source properties are obtained, and the means of the chains compare accurately with the estimates produced by the hybrid algorithms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Enhancing adaptive sparse grid approximations and improving refinement strategies using adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates

In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the physical discretization error and the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity of the sparse grid. Utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

From Points to Planes: A Workflow for Converting Three‐Dimensional Point Cloud Data Into Discrete Fracture Network Flow and Transport Models

We present the Point cLoud Algorithm for NEtwork Extraction of Discrete Fracture Networks (PLANE-DFN), a point cloud–based algorithm for automatic fracture network extraction designed to support discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling workflows. PLANE-DFN segments three-dimensional fracture planes from raw point cloud data using RANdom SAmple Consensus coupled with statistical outlier removal and density-based clustering to isolate individual fracture features. Each candidate plane is constrained against site-specific structural constraints based on strike and dip. After segmentation, each fracture is converted into a 2-D convex polygon suitable for meshing and simulation. The PLANE-DFN algorithm is validated by comparing geometric and flow and transport data against data from dfnWorks simulations with ensembles of plane-fit networks. We find that the flow and transport in plane-fit networks are comparable to dfnWorks-generated networks when realistic network geometry is maintained. The PLANE-DFN algorithm provides an automated and streamlined workflow to transform point clouds of data into DFN network geometry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integration with Commercial Tool and Practical Data

This paper presents an initial effort of integrating a smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless research tool integration using real world large-scale grid data. With the increasing impact of random forces such as variable generation and load, their stochastic behaviors cannot be ignored. However, the current practices are still dominated by deterministic tools. They are becoming increasingly inadequate for the future grid. The developed look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of variable energy and load to address the challenges brought by the increasing uncertainty of power system. The algorithm can reveal the potential violations caused by the variance of variable energy and load that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments ( real data with real commercial tool), significant efforts have been made to prepare test cases, modify GE EMS tool, and adapt an extreme value distribution algorithm to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only outputs. The test results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm as new transformer violations that were not previously detected have been identified. This performance provides better situational awareness to engineers for their decision-making process under uncertainty. Moreover, with the discussion of computational performance and future work, this paper has shown a clear path for integrating the probabilistic algorithm with commercial tools to make us better equipped for the changing power system.

Modeling and simulation of power systems, constrai↗

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hamiltonian variational ansatz without barren plateaus

Variational quantum algorithms, which combine highly expressive parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) and optimization techniques in machine learning, are one of the most promising applications of a near-term quantum computer. Despite their huge potential, the utility of variational quantum algorithms beyond tens of qubits is still questioned. One of the central problems is the trainability of PQCs. The cost function landscape of a randomly initialized PQC is often too flat, asking for an exponential amount of quantum resources to find a solution. This problem, dubbed barren plateaus , has gained lots of attention recently, but a general solution is still not available. In this paper, we solve this problem for the Hamiltonian variational ansatz (HVA), which is widely studied for solving quantum many-body problems. After showing that a circuit described by a time-evolution operator generated by a local Hamiltonian does not have exponentially small gradients, we derive parameter conditions for which the HVA is well approximated by such an operator. Based on this result, we propose an initialization scheme for the variational quantum algorithms and a parameter-constrained ansatz free from barren plateaus.

Physics↗

Analysis of Properties of Quantum Hashing

We analyze a method of binary quantum hashing that allows one to represent binary sets as quantum states. We show that this method is very stable with respect to the recovery of preimages. Moreover, we propose heuristic approaches to small-bias sets on which the construction of quantum hash-functions is based and show that they are stable with respect to collisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Euclid preparation: IV. Impact of undetected galaxies on weak-lensing shear measurements

In modern weak-lensing surveys, the common approach to correct for residual systematic biases in the shear is to calibrate shape measurement algorithms using simulations. These simulations must fully capture the complexity of the observations to avoid introducing any additional bias. In this paper we study the importance of faint galaxies below the observational detection limit of a survey. We simulate simplified Euclid VIS images including and excluding this faint population, and measure the shift in the multiplicative shear bias between the two sets of simulations. We measure the shear with three different algorithms: a moment-based approach, model fitting, and machine learning. We find that for all methods, a spatially uniform random distribution of faint galaxies introduces a shear multiplicative bias of the order of a few times 10 -3 . This value increases to the order of 10 -2 when including the clustering of the faint galaxies, as measured in the Hubble Space Telescope Ultra-Deep Field. The magnification of the faint background galaxies due to the brighter galaxies along the line of sight is found to have a negligible impact on the multiplicative bias. We conclude that the undetected galaxies must be included in the calibration simulations with proper clustering properties down to magnitude 28 in order to reach a residual uncertainty on the multiplicative shear bias calibration of a few times 10 -4 , in line with the 2 × 10 -3 total accuracy budget required by the scientific objectives of the Euclid survey. We propose two complementary methods for including faint galaxy clustering in the calibration simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

B-Trees and Cache-Oblivious B-Trees with Different-Sized Atomic Keys

Most B-tree articles assume that all $\textit{N}$ keys have the same size $\textit{K}$, that $\textit{f = B/K}$ keys fit in a disk block, and therefore that the search cost is $O(\text{log}_{f+1}N) $ block transfers. When keys have variable size, B-tree operations have no nontrivial performance guarantees, however. This article provides B-tree-like performance guarantees on dictionaries that contain keys of different sizes in a model in which keys must be stored and compared as opaque objects. The resulting atomic-key dictionaries exhibit performance bounds in terms of the average key size and match the bounds when all keys are the same size. Atomic-key dictionaries can be built with minimal modification to the B-tree structure, simply by choosing the pivot keys properly. Further, this article describes both static and dynamic atomic-key dictionaries. In the static case, if there are $\textit{N}$ keys with average size $\textit{K}$, the search cost is $O(\lceil K/B\rceil \text{log}_{1 + \lceil K/B\rceil} N)$ expected transfers. It is not possible to transform these expected bounds into worst-case bounds. The cost to build the tree is $\textit{O(NK)}$ operations and $\textit{O(NK/B)}$ transfers if all keys are presented in sorted order. If not, the cost is the sorting cost. For the dynamic dictionaries, the amortized cost to insert a key $\textit{κ}$ of arbitrary length at an arbitrary rank is dominated by the cost to search for $\textit{κ}$. Specifically, the amortized cost to insert a key $\textit{κ}$ of arbitrary length and random rank is $O(\lceil K/B\rceil log_{1+ \lceil B/K\rceil } N + |κ|/B)$ transfers. A dynamic-programming algorithm is shown for constructing a search tree with minimal expected cost. This article also gives a cache-oblivious static atomic-key B-tree, which achieves the same asymptotic performance as the static B-tree dictionary, mentioned previously. A cache-oblivious data structure or algorithm is not parameterized by the block size $\textit{B}$ or memory size $\textit{M}$ in the memory hierarchy; rather, it is universal, working simultaneously for all possible values of $\textit{B}$ or $\textit{M}$. On a machine with block size $\textit{B}$, if there are $\textit{N}$ keys with average size $\textit{K}$, search operations costs $O(\lceil K/B \rceil log_{1+ \lceil B/K \rceil} N)$ block transfers in expectation. This cache-oblivious layout can be built in $\textit{O(N}\text{log}\textit{(NK))}$ processor operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Error studies of Halbach Magnets

These error studies were done on the Halbach magnets for the CBETA “First Girder” as described in note [CBETA001]. The CBETA magnets have since changed slightly to the lattice in [CBETA009]. However, this is not a large enough change to significantly affect the results here. The QF and BD arc FFAG magnets are considered. For each assumed set of error distributions and each ideal magnet, 100 random magnets with errors are generated. These are then run through an automated version of the iron wire multipole cancellation algorithm. The maximum wire diameter allowed is 0.063” as in the proof-of-principle magnets. Initially, 32 wires (2 per Halbach wedge) are tried, then if this does not achieve 1e-­4 level accuracy in the simulation, 48 and then 64 wires. By “1e-4 accuracy”, it is meant the FOM defined by √(Σ n≥sextupole a n 2 +b n 2 ) is less than 1 unit, where the multipoles are taken at the maximum nominal beam radius, R=23mm for these magnets. The algorithm initially uses 20 convergence interations. If 64 wires does not achieve 1e-­4 accuracy, this is increased to 50 iterations to check for slow converging cases. There are also classifications for magnets that do not achieve 1e-4 but do achieve 1e-3 (FOM ≤ 10 units). This is technically within the spec discussed in the Jan 30, 2017 review; however, there will be errors in practical shimming not dealt with in the simulation, so it is preferable to do much better than the spec in the simulation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Time Series Dimension Reduction for Surrogate Models of Port Scanning Cyber Emulations

Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparing Calibration Algorithms for the Rapid Characterization of Pretreated Corn Stover Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Rapid characterization of biomass composition is a key enabling technology for biorefineries—the ability to measure the chemical composition of biomass materials entering the biorefinery as well as the composition of key process intermediate streams would allow real-time process control and the development of robust models to predict process performance. The utility of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for rapid characterization requires multivariate algorithms for building calibration models. The most prevalent algorithm used for building calibration models using NIR spectra is the linear modeling algorithm Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS). Nonlinear regression algorithms (which are typically more computationally intensive than linear modeling approaches) have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to solve a wide variety of classification and regression problems and the dramatic increase in available computational resources. In this work, we demonstrate that a calibration model can predict the composition of corn stover process intermediate samples pretreated with three different treatments—hot water (HW), dilute acid (DA), and deacetylation followed by dilute acid (DDA). We quantitatively compare three different algorithms for building prediction models based on near-infrared spectroscopy—partial least squares (PLS), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We demonstrate the utility of improving model performance by accounting for instrument performance variability using repeated measurements of standard materials (e.g., the “repeatability file” strategy) and investigate its performance with nonlinear regression techniques, and we discuss methods for quantifying the uncertainties of specific predictions among the three methods.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

VMD fused radar--a hyper-volumetric ultra-low NAR sensor system

A system or method for a physical intrusion detection and assessment system is provided for determining a deliberate motion intrusion. The system includes first and second sensing device to sense physical data set within a predetermined space. A transducer module receives the first sensor physical data set and the second sensor physical data set and converts the first and second physical data sets into analog signals representative of the first and second physical data sets. A signal conditioning layer converts the first and second physical data analog signals to digital signals. A processor device correlates the first physical data set and the second physical data set and generates an alarm in response to identification of an intrusion in the space. A method and algorithms are applied to the data sets for determining whether a detected intrusion is associated with deliberate motion rather than random motion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extraction of diffuse correlation spectroscopy flow index by integration of Nth-order linear model with Monte Carlo simulation

Conventional semi-infinite solution for extracting blood flow index (BFI) from diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) measurements may cause errors in estimation of BFI (αD{sub B}) in tissues with small volume and large curvature. We proposed an algorithm integrating Nth-order linear model of autocorrelation function with the Monte Carlo simulation of photon migrations in tissue for the extraction of αD{sub B}. The volume and geometry of the measured tissue were incorporated in the Monte Carlo simulation, which overcome the semi-infinite restrictions. The algorithm was tested using computer simulations on four tissue models with varied volumes/geometries and applied on an in vivo stroke model of mouse. Computer simulations shows that the high-order (N ≥ 5) linear algorithm was more accurate in extracting αD{sub B} (errors < ±2%) from the noise-free DCS data than the semi-infinite solution (errors: −5.3% to −18.0%) for different tissue models. Although adding random noises to DCS data resulted in αD{sub B} variations, the mean values of errors in extracting αD{sub B} were similar to those reconstructed from the noise-free DCS data. In addition, the errors in extracting the relative changes of αD{sub B} using both linear algorithm and semi-infinite solution were fairly small (errors < ±2.0%) and did not rely on the tissue volume/geometry. The experimental results from the in vivo stroke mice agreed with those in simulations, demonstrating the robustness of the linear algorithm. DCS with the high-order linear algorithm shows the potential for the inter-subject comparison and longitudinal monitoring of absolute BFI in a variety of tissues/organs with different volumes/geometries.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The application of complex network time series analysis in turbulent heated jets

In the present study, we applied the methodology of the complex network-based time series analysis to experimental temperature time series from a vertical turbulent heated jet. More specifically, we approach the hydrodynamic problem of discriminating time series corresponding to various regions relative to the jet axis, i.e., time series corresponding to regions that are close to the jet axis from time series originating at regions with a different dynamical regime based on the constructed network properties. Applying the transformation phase space method (k nearest neighbors) and also the visibility algorithm, we transformed time series into networks and evaluated the topological properties of the networks such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity, and clustering coefficient. The results show that the complex network approach allows distinguishing, identifying, and exploring in detail various dynamical regions of the jet flow, and associate it to the corresponding physical behavior. In addition, in order to reject the hypothesis that the studied networks originate from a stochastic process, we generated random network and we compared their statistical properties with that originating from the experimental data. As far as the efficiency of the two methods for network construction is concerned, we conclude that both methodologies lead to network properties that present almost the same qualitative behavior and allow us to reveal the underlying system dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Pu239 Cross-Section Variations Based on Experimental Uncertainties and Covariances

Algorithms and software have been developed for producing variations in plutonium-239 neutron cross sections based on experimental uncertainties and covariances. The varied cross-section sets may be produced as random samples from the multi-variate normal distribution defined by an experimental mean vector and covariance matrix, or they may be produced as Latin-Hypercube/Orthogonal-Array samples (based on the same means and covariances) for use in parametrized studies. The variations obey two classes of constraints that are obligatory for cross-section sets and which put related constraints on the mean vector and covariance matrix that detemine the sampling. Because the experimental means and covariances do not obey some of these constraints to sufficient precision, imposing the constraints requires modifying the experimental mean vector and covariance matrix. Modification is done with an algorithm based on linear algebra that minimizes changes to the means and covariances while insuring that the operations that impose the different constraints do not conflict with each other.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗