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DOE OSTI2022

Graph-Augmented Normalizing Flows for Anomaly Detection of Multiple Time Series

Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time series, however, is a challenging subject, owing to the intricate interdependencies among the constituent series. We hypothesize that anomalies occur in low density regions of a distribution and explore the use of normalizing flows for unsupervised anomaly detection, because of their superior quality in density estimation. Moreover, we propose a novel flow model by imposing a Bayesian network among constituent series. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that models causal relationships; it factorizes the joint probability of the series into the product of easy-to-evaluate conditional probabilities. We call such a graph-augmented normalizing flow approach GANF and propose joint estimation of the DAG with flow parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of GANF for density estimation, anomaly detection, and identification of time series distribution drift.

Dai, Enyan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Visualisation and outlier detection for probability density function ensembles

Abstract Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for functional data—data objects where observations are entire functions—is a difficult problem that has seen significant attention in recent literature. This surge in interest is motivated by the ubiquitous nature of functional data, which are prevalent in applications across fields such as meteorology, biology, medicine and engineering. Empirical probability density functions (PDFs) can be viewed as constrained functional data objects that must integrate to one and be nonnegative. They show up in contexts such as yearly income distributions, zooplankton size structure in oceanography and in connectivity patterns in the brain, among others. While PDF data are certainly common in modern research, little attention has been given to EDA specifically for PDFs. In this paper, we extend several methods for EDA on functional data for PDFs and compare them on simulated data that exhibit different types of variation, designed to mimic that seen in real‐world applications. We then use our new methods to perform EDA on the breakthrough curves observed in gas transport simulations for underground fracture networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multipoint Observations of Quasiperiodic Emission Intensification and Effects on Energetic Electron Precipitation

The two Van Allen Probes simultaneously recorded a coherently modulated quasiperiodic (QP) emission that persisted for 3 h. The magnetic field pulsation at the locations of the two satellites showed a substantial difference, and their frequencies were close to but did not exactly match the repetition frequency of QP emissions for most of the time, suggesting that those coherent QP emissions probably originated from a common source, which then propagated over a broad area in the magnetosphere. The QP emissions were amplified by local anisotropic electron distributions, and their large-scale amplitudes were modulated by the plasma density. A novel observation of this event is that chorus waves at frequencies above QP emissions exhibit a strong correlation with QP emissions. Those chorus waves intensified when the QP emissions reach their peak frequency. This indicates that embryonic QP emissions may be critical for its own intensification as well as chorus waves under certain circumstances. A Low-Earth-Orbit POES satellite observed enhanced energetic electron precipitation in conjunction with the Van Allen Probes, providing direct evidence that QP emissions precipitate energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Finally, this scenario is quantitatively confirmed by our quasilinear diffusion simulation results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structure of Pb(Fe 2/3 W 1/3 )O 3 single crystals with partial cation order

Despite intensive studies on the complex perovskite Pb(Fe 2/3 W 1/3 )O 3 (PFWO) relaxor, understanding the exact nature of its multifunctional properties has remained a challenge for decades. In this work we report a comprehensive structural study of the PFWO single crystals using a combination of synchrotron X-ray diffraction and high-resolution electron microscopy. The set of {h + ½, k + ½, l + ½} superlattice reflections was observed for the first time based on single-crystal synchrotron X-ray experiments (100–450 K) and transmission electron microscopy investigations, which indicates some kind of B-cation ordering in PFWO which had been thought to be totally disordered. It was found that (1) the crystal structure of PFWO should be described by a partly ordered cubic perovskite (i.e. Fm – 3m ), (2) the weak ferromagnetic properties and excess magnetic moment of PFWO can be understood based on non-random distribution of Fe cations between the 4a and 4b sites, and (3) the Pb displacement disorder is present in this material and the cations are probably displaced along the <100> directions. The X-ray diffraction results of this investigation show that partial cation ordering indeed exists in PFWO, which makes it necessary to revisit the generally accepted interpretations of the results obtained up to date. In agreement with X-ray diffraction study the main results of TEM study include: (1) a long range order that can be described with the Fm – 3m symmetry is reliably detected, (2) the coherence length of that long range order is in the order of 1–2 nm and (3) no remarkable chemical inhomogeneity is found in the tested PFWO crystal, excluding the possibility of a compositional ordering arising from substitutional defects in the perovskite structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interplay of molecular dynamics and radiative decay of a TADF emitter in a glass-forming liquid

Herein we investigate the role of molecular dynamics in the luminescent properties of a prototypical thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) emitter, NAI-DMAC, in solution using a combination of temperature dependent time-resolved photoluminescence and absorption spectroscopies. We use a glass forming liquid, 2-methylfuran, to introduce an abrupt change in the temperature dependent diffusion dynamics of the solvent and examine the influence this has on the emission intensity of NAI-DMAC molecules. Comparison of experiment with first principles molecular dynamics simulations reveals that the emission intensity of NAI-DMAC molecules follows the temperature-dependent self-diffusion dynamics of the solvent. A marked reduction of emission intensity is observed as the temperature decreases toward the glass transition because the rate at which NAI-DMAC molecules can access emissive molecular conformations is greatly reduced. Below the glass transition, the diffusion dynamics of the solvent changes more slowly with temperature, which causes the emission intensity to decrease more slowly as well. The combination of experiment and computation suggests a pathway by which TADF emitters may transiently access a distribution of conformational states and avoid the need for an average conformation that strikes a balance between lower singlet–triplet energy splittings versus higher emission probabilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

UV photodissociation dynamics of the acetone oxide Criegee intermediate: experiment and theory

Here, the photodissociation dynamics of the dimethyl-substituted acetone oxide Criegee intermediate [(CH 3 ) 2 COO] is characterized following electronic excitation to the bright 1 ππ* state, which leads to O ( 1 D) + acetone [(CH 3 ) 2 CO, S 0 ] products. The UV action spectrum of (CH 3 ) 2 COO recorded with O ( 1 D) detection under jet-cooled conditions is broad, unstructured, and essentially unchanged from the corresponding electronic absorption spectrum obtained using a UV-induced depletion method. This indicates that UV excitation of (CH 3 ) 2 COO leads predominantly to the O ( 1 D) product channel. A higher energy O ( 3 P) + (CH 3 ) 2 CO (T 1 ) product channel is not observed, although it is energetically accessible. In addition, complementary MS-CASPT2 trajectory surface-hopping (TSH) simulations indicate minimal population leading to the O ( 3 P) channel and non-unity overall probability for dissociation (within 100 fs). Velocity map imaging of the O ( 1 D) products is utilized to reveal the total kinetic energy release (TKER) distribution upon photodissociation of (CH 3 ) 2 COO at various UV excitation energies. Simulation of the TKER distributions is performed using a hybrid model that combines an impulsive model with a statistical component, the latter reflecting the longer-lived (>100 fs) trajectories identified in the TSH calculations. The impulsive model accounts for vibrational activation of (CH 3 ) 2 CO arising from geometrical changes between the Criegee intermediate and the carbonyl product, indicating the importance of CO stretch, CCO bend, and CC stretch along with activation of hindered rotation and rock of the methyl groups in the (CH 3 ) 2 CO product. Detailed comparison is also made with the TKER distribution arising from photodissociation dynamics of CH 2 OO upon UV excitation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Residual lattice strain in quartzites as a potential palaeo-piezometer

SUMMARY If a crystal lattice is subjected to a stress, it becomes distorted and no longer represents the ideal crystal symmetry, and if the stress introduces defects such as dislocations, some of this distortion is preserved after the applied stress is removed. In this study, we investigate lattice distortion in quartz at the micron scale with synchrotron X-ray Laue diffraction. From Laue images the local deviatoric strain tensor is derived and corresponding stresses are calculated based on elastic properties. The method is applied to metasedimentary quartzites from the Bergell Alps that were deformed at conditions of greenschist facies metamorphism. The residual palaeostrain is represented in maps of the deviatoric strain tensor components and with deviatoric strain axis pole figures. Data suggest overall shortening perpendicular to the schistosity plane but with considerable asymmetry relative to foliation and lineation, probably attributed to simple shear. Crystallographic pole figures from Laue diffraction agree with neutron diffraction and EBSD measurements and display quartz c-axes girdle distributions with maxima also perpendicular to schistosity. The method shows promise to be used as a palaeo-piezometer to unravel the stress field during tectonic deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of quadrupole deformation and continuum effects in the “island of inversion” nuclei 28,29,31 F

The peculiar properties of nuclei in the so-called “island of inversion” around Z = 10 and N = 20 are the focus of current nuclear physics research. Recent studies showed that 28 F has a negative-parity ground state and thus lies within the southern shore of the island of inversion, and 29 F presents a halo structure in its ground state, but it is unclear which effects, such as deformation, shell evolution due to tensor forces, or couplings to the continuum, lead to this situation. Here, we investigate the role of quadrupole deformation and continuum effects on the single-particle structure of 28,29,31 F from a relativistic mean-field approach and show how both phenomena can lead to a negative-parity ground state in 28 F and halo structures in 29,31 F. We solve the Dirac equation in the complex-momentum (Berggren) representation for a potential with quadrupole deformation at the first order obtained from relativistic mean-field calculations using the NL3 interaction and calculate the continuum level densities using the Green’s function method. We extract single-particle energies and widths from the continuum level densities to construct the Nilsson diagrams of 28,29,31 F in the continuum and analyze the evolution of both the widths and occupation probabilities of relevant Nilsson orbitals in 28 F and find that some amount of prolate deformation must be present. In addition, we calculate the density distributions for bound Nilsson orbitals near the Fermi surface in 29,31 F and reveal that, for a quadrupole deformation 0.3 ≤ β 2 ≤ 0.45 (prolate), characteristic halo tails appear at large distances. Using the relativistic mean-field approach in the complex-momentum representation with the Green’s function method, we demonstrate that in neutron-rich fluorine isotopes, while in the spherical case the pf shells are already inverted and close to the neutron emission threshold, a small amount of quadrupole deformation can dramatically reduce the gap between positive- and negative-parity states and increase the role of continuum states, ultimately leading to the negative parity in the ground state of 28 F and the halo structures in 29,31 F.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

DOE OSTI2023

BCG alignment with the locations of cluster members and the large-scale structure out to 10 R 200

Using a sample of >200 clusters, each with typically 100–200 spectroscopically confirmed cluster members, we search for a signal of alignment between the position angle (PA) of the Brightest Cluster Galaxy (BCG) and the distribution of cluster members on the sky about the cluster centre out to projected distances of 3 R 200 . The deep spectroscopy, combined with corrections for spectroscopic incompleteness, makes our sample ideal to determine alignment signal strengths. We also use an SDSS based skeleton of the filamentary large-scale structure (LSS), and measure BCG alignment with the location of the LSS skeleton segments on the sky out to projected distances of 10 R 200 . The alignment signal is measured using three separate statistical measures; Rao’s spacing test (U), Kuiper’s V parameter (V), and the Binomial probability test (P). The significance of the BCG alignment signal with both cluster members and LSS segments is extremely high (1 in a million chance or less to be drawn randomly from a uniform distribution). We investigate a wide set of parameters that may influence the strength of the alignment signal. Clusters with more elliptical-shaped BCGs show stronger alignment with both their cluster members and LSS segments. Also, selecting clusters with closely connected filaments, or using a luminosity-weighted LSS skeleton, increases the alignment signal significantly. Alignment strength decreases with increasing projected distance. Combined, these results provide strong evidence for the growth of clusters and their BCGs by preferential feeding along the direction of the filaments in which they are embedded.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Composite Power System Reliability with Renewables and Customer Flexibility

Composite Power System Reliability is defined as the computational procedure that quantifies the probability that the power system will perform the function of delivering electric power to customers adequately, on a continuous basis and with an acceptable quality. This definition leaves many details undefined and exemplifies the ambiguity in reliability analysis. The increasing deployment of wind and PV creates additional uncertainties that make reliability analysis a rather complex issue. Because of increased uncertainty the need for composite reliability analysis and utilization of results in power system planning is critical. New approaches are emerging for dealing with these problems from the operational point of view, including demand response programs, tapping on customer and distributed resource flexibility and new control approaches. The key question to be addressed is: how the new operational paradigms affect composite power system reliability. Here, this paper presents the ongoing work of the IEEE Composite System Reliability Task Force of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk, Probability Application (RRPA) Subcommittee.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probability of Forming Gaps in the GD-1 Stream by Close Encounters of Globular Clusters

One of the most intriguing properties of the GD-1 stellar stream is the existence of three gaps. If these gaps were formed by close encounters with dark matter subhalos, the GD-1 stream opens an exciting window through which we can see the size, mass, and velocity distributions of the dark matter subhalos in the Milky Way. However, in order to use the GD-1 stream as a probe of the dark matter substructure, we need to disprove that these gaps are not due to the perturbations from baryonic components of the Milky Way. Here we ran a large number of test-particle simulations to investigate the probability that each of the known globular clusters (GCs) can form a GD-1-like gap, by using the kinematical data of the GD-1 stream and GCs from Gaia early data release 3 and by fully taking the observational uncertainty into account. We found that the probability that all of the three gaps were formed by GCs is as low as 1.7 × 10 -5 , and the expected number of gaps formed by GCs is only 0.057 in our fiducial model. Our result highly disfavors a scenario in which GCs form the gaps. Given that other baryonic perturbers (e.g., giant molecular clouds) are even less likely to form a gap in the retrograde-moving GD-1 stream, we conclude that at least one of the gaps in the GD-1 stream was formed by dark matter subhalos if the gaps were formed by flyby perturbations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

HHL algorithm with mapping function and enhanced sampling for model predictive control in microgrids

Here, this paper presents a refined quantum Harrow Hassidim Lloyd (HHL) algorithm for microgrid control. The first novelty of the developed method is that a mapping shift function enables the original HHL algorithm to handle general linear equations with non-singular and indefinite matrix. Second, a method of Matrix Extension for Amplifying Sampling Probabilities of Intended Solution (ME-ASPI) is proposed to design the reformulated linear algebraic equations, allowing for improved sampling efficiency of the quantum tomography in the refined HHL algorithm. Then, we applied the method to solve the model predictive control (MPC) problem in nonlinear dynamical microgrids. Specifically, with the ME-ASPI method, the refined HHL algorithm can effectively obtain the intended partial optimal control inputs for MPC. The optimization of quadratic programming problem in each time step of MPC is transformed into a linear system problem, which is addressed by the proposed quantum solver through using only partial information, with the time complexity improved from $\mathscr{O}(\mathscr{N}^{2.37286})$ classically to $\mathscr{O}(\mathscr{N}^{2} log \mathscr{N}$ x $p$ log $p)$ in quantum. Numerical examples have validated the effectiveness of the refined HHL algorithm with the proposed mapping function and the ME-ASPI method. By leveraging quantum properties, the proposed method provides a hybrid quantum–classical framework for microgrid control. This generic method can also potentially tackle many other challenges in analyzing and controlling general complex engineered systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temporal coherent control of resonant two-photon double ionization of the hydrogen molecule via doubly excited states

Here, we use time-delayed, counter-rotating, circularly polarized few-cycle attosecond nonoverlapping pulses to study the temporal coherent control of the resonant process of two-photon double ionization (TPDI) of hydrogen molecule via doubly excited states for pulse propagation direction along $\hat k$ either parallel or perpendicular to the molecular axis $\hat R$. For $\hat k$∥ $\hat R$ and a pulse carrier frequency of 36 eV resonantly populating the Q 2 1 Π$^+_u$ (1) doubly excited state as well as other 1 Π$^+_u$ doubly excited states, we find that the indirect ionization pathway through these doubly excited states changes the character of the kinematical vortex-shaped momentum distribution produced by the two direct ionization pathways from fourfold to twofold rotational symmetry. This result is similar to what found in TPDI of the He atom involving 1 P$^ o_ {±1}$ doubly excited states; however, angular distributions exhibiting a quantum beat effect between the ground state and a doubly excited state seen for the He atom are observed here for its molecular counterpart with an anomaly in shape and magnitude, not in frequency. The sixfold differential probability integrated over the azimuthal angle of the photoelectron pair shows that this anomaly is due to autoionization decays and quantum beats between doubly excited states. For $\hat k$⟂$\hat R$ and a broadband pulse carrier frequency of 30 eV populating the Q 1 1 Π$^+_u$(1), Q 1 1 Σ$^+_u$(1), Q 2 1 Π$^+_u$(1) , and Q 1 1 Σ$^+_u$ (2) doubly excited states, the momentum distribution is shown to exhibit dynamical electron vortices with four spiral arms, which originates from the interplay between the 1 Δ$^+_ g$ , 1 Π$^+_ g$, and 1 Σ$^+_ g$ dynamical ionization amplitudes. Our treatment within either the adiabatic-nuclei approximation or fixed-nuclei approximation shows that the latter provides a very good account for this correlated process.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microscopic calculation of fission product yields with particle-number projection

Fission fragments' charge and mass distribution is an important input to applications ranging from basic science to energy production or nuclear nonproliferation. In simulations of nucleosynthesis or calculations of superheavy elements, these quantities must be computed from models, as they are needed in nuclei where no experimental information is available. Until now, standard techniques to estimate these distributions were not capable of accounting for fine-structure effects, such as the odd-even staggering of the charge distributions. In this work, we combine a fully microscopic collective model of fission dynamics with a recent extension of the particle number projection formalism to provide the highest-fidelity prediction of the primary fission fragment distributions for the neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu. Here, we show that particle-number projection is an essential ingredient to reproduce odd-even staggering in the charge yields and benchmark the performance of various empirical probability laws that could simulate its effect. This new approach also enables for the first time the realistic determination of two-dimensional isotopic yields within nuclear density functional theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fractional Laplacian spectral approach to turbulence in a dusty plasma monolayer

This work presents an analytical investigation of anomalous diffusion and turbulence in a dusty plasma monolayer, where energy transport across scales leads to the spontaneous formation of spatially disordered patterns. Many-body simulations of 10,000-particle dusty plasma monolayers are used to demonstrate how the global dynamics depend on the statistical properties of the dust assembly for realistic laboratory conditions. We find that disorder due to variations in the dust size distribution and charge-driven nonlocal interactions resulting in anomalous dust diffusion are key factors for the onset of instabilities. The resulting dynamics exhibit features of inertial turbulence over slightly more than half a decade of scales proportional or smaller than the Debye shielding length. These processes are examined analytically using a recently developed Fractional Laplacian Spectral (FLS) technique, which identifies the active energy channels as a function of scale, disorder concentration, and features of the nonlocal-interactions. The predictions from the theoretical (spectral) analysis demonstrate agreement with the results from the many-body (kinetic) simulations, thus providing a powerful tool for the study of active turbulence.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variations in the Width, Density, and Direction of the Palomar 5 Tidal Tails

Stars that escape globular clusters form tidal tails that are predominantly shaped by the global distribution of mass in the Galaxy, but also preserve a historical record of small-scale perturbations. Using deep grz photometry from DECaLS, we present highly probable members of the tidal tails associated with the evaporating globular cluster Palomar 5. These data yield the cleanest view of a stellar stream beyond ≈20 kpc and reveal: (1) a wide, low surface-brightness extension of the leading tail; (2) significant density variations along the stream; and (3) sharp changes in the direction of both the leading and the trailing tail. In the fiducial Milky Way model, a rotating bar perturbs the Palomar 5 tails and can produce streams with similar width and density profiles to those observed. However, the deviations of the stream track in this simple model do not match those observed in the Palomar 5 trailing tail, indicating the need for an additional source of perturbation. These discoveries open up the possibility of measuring the population of perturbers in the Milky Way, including dark-matter subhalos, with an ensemble of stellar streams and deep photometry alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Draco Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy in the First Year of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data

We investigate the spatial distribution, kinematics, and metallicity of stars in the Draco dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We identify 155 high-probability members of Draco using line-of-sight velocity and metallicity information derived from DESI spectroscopy along with Gaia Data Release 3 proper motions. We find a mean line-of-sight velocity of −290.62 ± 0.80 km s −1 with dispersion = $9.57$$^{+0.66}_{–0.62}$ km s −1 and mean metallicity [Fe/H] = −2.10 ± 0.04, consistent with previous results. We also find that Draco has a steep metallicity gradient within the half-light radius, and a metallicity gradient that flattens beyond the half-light radius. We identify eight high-probability members outside the King tidal radius, four of which we identify for the first time. These extratidal stars are not preferentially aligned along the orbit of Draco. We compute an average surface brightness of 34.02 mag arsec –2 within an elliptical annulus from the King tidal radius of 48'.1–81′.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗