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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

Flight Evaluation of Center-TRACON Automation System Trajectory Prediction Process

Two flight experiments (Phase 1 in October 1992 and Phase 2 in September 1994) were conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) trajectory prediction process. The Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) Boeing 737 based at Langley Research Center flew 57 arrival trajectories that included cruise and descent segments; at the same time, descent clearance advisories from CTAS were followed. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared with the trajectories predicted by the CTAS trajectory synthesis algorithms and airplane Flight Management System (FMS). Trajectory prediction accuracy was evaluated over several levels of cockpit automation that ranged from a conventional cockpit to performance-based FMS vertical navigation (VNAV). Error sources and their magnitudes were identified and measured from the flight data. The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. The most significant effect related to flight guidance was the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. FMS lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and airplane performance model errors.

Williams, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Mach Number Effects on Turbine Blade Transition Length Prediction

The effect of a Mach number correction on a model for predicting the length of transition was investigated. The transition length decreases as the turbulent spot production rate increases. Much of the data for predicting the spot production rate comes from low speed flow experiments. Recent data and analysis showed that the spot production rate is affected by Mach number. The degree of agreement between analysis and data for turbine blade heat transfer without film cooling is strongly dependent of accurately predicting the length of transition. Consequently, turbine blade heat transfer data sets were used to validate a transition length turbulence model. A method for modifying models for the length of transition to account for Mach number effects is presented. The modification was made to two transition length models. The modified models were incorporated into the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes code, RVCQ3D. Comparisons were made between predicted and measured midspan surface heat transfer for stator and rotor turbine blades. The results showed that accounting for Mach number effects significantly improved the agreement with the experimental data.

Boyle, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Comparison Between Experiment and Prediction for a Transonic Turbulent Separated Flow

Solutions of the time-dependent, mass-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are compared In detail with experimental results obtained on an axisymmetric "bump" model at a transonic Mach number that produced an extensive separated now region. In addition, an inverse boundary method is evaluated for this type of flow. The Cebeci-Smith algebraic and the Wilcox-Rubesin two-equation turbulence models used in the Navier-Stokes calculations both predict the maximum boundary-layer displacement thickness generated by the interaction reasonably well, with the details of the now best described with the two-equation formulation. However, both models predict a shock location substantially farther aft on the bump than observed experimentally. This error in shock location was slightly less with the two-equation model (0.12 chord compared with 0.16 chord). In the vicinity of the shock, the calculations predict a more rapid increase in turbulent shear stress than observed in the experimental results; this more rapid increase is believed to be the cause or the poor predictions in shock position.

Johnson, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

Buchner, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Predictive Features of a Cockpit Traffic Display: A Workload Assessment

Eighteen pilots flew a series of traffic avoidance maneuvers in an experiment designed to assess the support offered and workload imposed by different levels of traffic display information in a free flight simulation. Three display prototypes were compared which differed in traffic information provided. A BASELINE (BL) display provided current and (2nd order) predicted information regarding ownship and current information of an intruder aircraft, represented on lateral and vertical displays in a coplanar suite. An INTRUDER PREDICTOR (IP) display, augmented the baseline display by providing lateral and vertical prediction of the intruder aircraft. A THREAT VECTOR (TV) display added to the IP display a vector that indicates the direction from ownship to the intruder at the predicted point of closest contact (POCC). The length of the vector corresponds to the radius of the protected zone, and the distance of the intersection of the vector with ownship predictor, corresponds to the time available till POCC or loss of separation. Pilots time shared the traffic avoidance task with a secondary task requiring them to monitor the top of the display for faint targets. This task simulated the visual demands of out-of-cockpit scanning, and hence was used to estimate the head-down time required by the different display formats. The results revealed that both display augmentations improved performance (safety) as assessed by predicted and actual loss of separation (i.e., penetration of the protected zone). Both enhancements also reduced workload, as assessed by the NASA TLX scale. The intruder predictor display produced these benefits with no substantial impact on the qualitative nature of the avoidance maneuvers that were selected. The threat vector produced the safety benefits by inducing a greater degree of (effective) lateral maneuvering, thus partially offsetting the benefits of reduced workload. The three displays did not differ in terms of their effect on performance of the monitoring task, used to infer head-down time, nor in the extent of vertical or airspeed maneuvering. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for 19 cognitive engineering design features.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Comment on "The Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred three-cycle Quasiperiodicity of the Planetary Index Ap"

Recently, Ahluwalia reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasiperiodicity in them." Furthermore, on the basis of this inferred quasiperiodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new three-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum", a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselin et al. and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be readdressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. First, Ahluwalia appears to have based his analysis on a data set of Ap index values that is erroneous. For example, he depicts for the interval of 1932-1997 the variation of the Ap index in terms of annual averages, contrasting them against annual averages of sunspot number (SSN), and he lists for cycles 17-23 the minimum and maximum value of each, as well as the years in which they occur and a quantity which he calls "Amplitude" (defined as the numeric difference between the maximum and minimum values). In particular, he identifies the minimum Ap index (i.e., the minimum value of the Ap index in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum, which usually occurs in the year following sunspot minimum and which will be called hereafter, simply, Ap min) and the year in which it occur for cycles 17 - 23 respectively.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Coupling of Low Speed Fan Stator Vane Unsteady Pressures to Duct Modes: Measured versus Predicted

Uniform-flow annular-duct Green's functions are the essential elements of the classical acoustic analogy approach to the problem of computing the noise generated by rotor-stator interaction inside the fan duct. This paper investigates the accuracy of this class of Green's functions for predicting the duct noise levels when measured stator vane unsteady surface pressures are used as input to the theoretical formulation. The accuracy of the method is evaluated by comparing the predicted and measured acoustic power levels for the NASA 48 inch low speed Active Noise Control Fan. The unsteady surface pressures are measured,by an array of microphones imbedded in the suction and pressure sides of a single vane, while the duct mode levels are measured using a rotating rake system installed in the inlet and exhaust sections of the fan duct. The predicted levels are computed using properly weighted integrals of measured surface pressure distribution. The data-theory comparisons are generally quite good particularly when the mode cut-off criterion is carefully interpreted. This suggests that, at least for low speed fans, the uniform-flow annular-duct Green's function theory can be reliably used for prediction of duct mode levels if the cascade surface pressure distribution is accurately known.

Sutliff, Daniel L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comment on the Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred Three-Cycle Quasi-Periodicity of the Planetary Index Ap

Recently, Ahluwalia [1998] reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasi-periodicity in them." Futhermore, on the basis of this inferred quasi-periodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new 3-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum," a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselyn et al. [1997] and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be redressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. In particular, it is shown that Ahluwalia used inappropriate values of the Ap index in his analysis, that the inferred 3-cycle relationship which Ahluwalia claims for both Ap and SSN does not exist for the previous 6-cycle interval (prior to cycle 17) for SSN, that his inferred fit is only of marginal statistical significance (having r = 0.81), and that two alternative precursor fits (both with r = 0.96 or greater) exist which strongly suggest that R max for cycle 23 will be much larger than forecast by Ahluwalia (namely, about 168-187). Thus, caution must be exercised in accepting Ahluwalia's findings.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Predicting Mission Success in Small Satellite Missions

In our global society with its increasing international competition and tighter financial resources, governments, commercial entities and other organizations are becoming critically aware of the need to ensure that space missions can be achieved on time and within budget. This has become particularly true for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Office of Space Science (OSS) which has developed their Discovery and Explorer programs to meet this need. As technologies advance, space missions are becoming smaller and more capable than their predecessors. The ability to predict the mission success of these small satellite missions is critical to the continued achievement of NASA science mission objectives. The NASA Office of Space Science, in cooperation with the NASA Langley Research Center, has implemented a process to predict the likely success of missions proposed to its Discovery and Explorer Programs. This process is becoming the basis for predicting mission success in many other NASA programs as well. This paper describes the process, methodology, tools and synthesis techniques used to predict mission success for this class of mission.

Saunders, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1999

Skin Friction Drag Predictions: Summary of CFD Cross Checks, Wing/Body

The objective of the present study was to address the questions of: 1) how reliably or consistently the Navier-Stokes methods and processes used by the various organizations can predict integrated skin friction drag, and 2) how well the methods can predict trends within a family of optimized configurations. As a first step, all available skin friction drag predictions were accumulated to obtain a mean and standard deviation for the TCA (Technology Concept Airplane) baseline and each of the optimized configurations. It is observed that the optimization process has had little effect on the predicted skin friction drags. The variation in the mean that is observed is dwarfed by the standard deviations. In order to understand the reasons for the relatively large spreads in the computed results, a number of auxiliary computations have been performed using the UPS and OVERFLOW codes in an effort to identify and quantity potential sources of the variations.

Lawrence, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2000

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Practical Engineering Approach to Predicting Fatigue Crack Growth in Riveted Lap Joints

An extensive experimental database has been assembled from very detailed teardown examinations of fatigue cracks found in rivet holes of fuselage structural components. Based on this experimental database, a comprehensive analysis methodology was developed to predict the onset of widespread fatigue damage in lap joints of fuselage structure. Several computer codes were developed with specialized capabilities to conduct the various analyses that make up the comprehensive methodology. Over the past several years, the authors have interrogated various aspects of the analysis methods to determine the degree of computational rigor required to produce numerical predictions with acceptable engineering accuracy. This study led to the formulation of a practical engineering approach to predicting fatigue crack growth in riveted lap joints. This paper describes the practical engineering approach and compares predictions with the results from several experimental studies.

Harris, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model of Zebiak and Cane. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Predictability of Seasonal Means in the NSIPP-1 AGCM

The predictability of seasonal means during 1980-99 is examined from 720 seasonal integrations with version 1 of NASA's Seasonal to Interanual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM is the atmospheric (and land) component of the NSIPP fully-coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these runs, the initial atmospheric conditions are taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice are specified from observations. Results from the northern winter integrations show that the model has a very realistic El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in both the tropics and extratropics. Early results from the northern summer runs show a robust extratropical ENSO response in the Southern Hemisphere Pacific, as well as, a pronounced zonally-symmetric component to the ENSO response in both hemispheres. Results will be presented at the meeting highlighting the seasonal evolution in predictability and skill of the NSIPP model on both global and regional scales. A further analysis of the zonally-symmetric response will be discussed in terms of its potential impact on the predictability of middle-latitude climate variability on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2000

COSIM: A Finite-Difference Computer Model to Predict Ternary Concentration Profiles Associated with Oxidation and Interdiffusion of Overlay-Coated Substrates

A finite-difference computer program (COSIM) has been written which models the one-dimensional, diffusional transport associated with high-temperature oxidation and interdiffusion of overlay-coated substrates. The program predicts concentration profiles for up to three elements in the coating and substrate after various oxidation exposures. Surface recession due to solute loss is also predicted. Ternary cross terms and concentration-dependent diffusion coefficients are taken into account. The program also incorporates a previously-developed oxide growth and spalling model to simulate either isothermal or cyclic oxidation exposures. In addition to predicting concentration profiles after various oxidation exposures, the program can also be used to predict coating fife based on a concentration dependent failure criterion (e.g., surface solute content drops to two percent). The computer code, written in an extension of FORTRAN 77, employs numerous subroutines to make the program flexible and easily modifiable to other coating oxidation problems.

Nesbitt, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Microgravity Propellant Tank Geyser Analysis and Prediction

An established correlation for geyser height prediction of an axial jet inflow into a microgravity propellant tank was analyzed and an effort to develop an improved correlation was made. The original correlation, developed using data from ethanol flow in small-scale drop tower tests, uses the jet-Weber number and the jet-Bond number to predict geyser height. A new correlation was developed from the same set of experimental data using the jet-Weber number and both the jet-Bond number and tank-Bond number to describe the geyser formation. The resulting correlation produced nearly a 40% reduction in geyser height predictive error compared to the original correlation with experimental data. Two additional tanks were computationally modeled in addition to the small-scale tank used in the drop tower testing. One of these tanks was a 50% enlarged small-scale tank and the other a full-scale 2 m radius tank. Simulations were also run for liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. Results indicated that the new correlation outperformed the original correlation in geyser height prediction under most circumstances. The new correlation has also shown a superior ability to recognize the difference between flow patterns II (geyser formation only) and III (pooling at opposite end of tank from the bulk fluid region).

Thornton, Randall J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Predictive Techniques for Spacecraft Cabin Air Quality Control

As assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) proceeds, predictive techniques are used to determine the best approach for handling a variety of cabin air quality challenges. These techniques use equipment offgassing data collected from each ISS module before flight to characterize the trace chemical contaminant load. Combined with crew metabolic loads, these data serve as input to a predictive model for assessing the capability of the onboard atmosphere revitalization systems to handle the overall trace contaminant load as station assembly progresses. The techniques for predicting in-flight air quality are summarized along with results from early ISS mission analyses. Results from groundbased analyses of in-flight air quality samples are compared to the predictions to demonstrate the technique's relative conservatism.

Perry, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Predictive Compensator Optimization for Head Tracking Lag in Virtual Environments

We examined the perceptual impact of plant noise parameterization for Kalman Filter predictive compensation of time delays intrinsic to head tracked virtual environments (VEs). Subjects were tested in their ability to discriminate between the VE system's minimum latency and conditions in which artificially added latency was then predictively compensated back to the system minimum. Two head tracking predictors were parameterized off-line according to cost functions that minimized prediction errors in (1) rotation, and (2) rotation projected into translational displacement with emphasis on higher frequency human operator noise. These predictors were compared with a parameterization obtained from the VE literature for cost function (1). Results from 12 subjects showed that both parameterization type and amount of compensated latency affected discrimination. Analysis of the head motion used in the parameterizations and the subsequent discriminability results suggest that higher frequency predictor artifacts are contributory cues for discriminating the presence of predictive compensation.

Adelstein, Barnard D.↗