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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

High-Resolution Wind Resource Data Set of the Greater Puerto Rico Region

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy and six national laboratories launched the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). PR100 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of possible pathways for Puerto Rico's energy future, with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. As a part of the renewable energy potential assessment in this project, we developed 20 years (2001-2020) of data using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for onshore and offshore wind resource assessment for the Puerto Rico. The research steps in developing the long-term wind resource data sets based on the NWP model were: 1. Model wind resource based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 2. Develop WRF model configurations for Puerto Rico. 3. Test WRF with 11 different physics parameterizations for planetary boundary layer (PBL). 4. Assess WRF output from the different PBL schemes against observations. 5. Select a final model configuration which can produce the modeled wind speed with sufficient accuracy. 6. Produce 20 years wind resource data sets for Puerto Rico region. In the first stage of our framework for developing wind resource data, we developed a WRF model configuration using two nested domains (9 km and 3 km) to cover Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and downscale the ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees; hourly interval) to a 3-km domain. For the second stage, we implemented one-year simulations focused on using 11 different PBL physics parameterizations to find a combination of WRF physics parameterizations that could provide accurately modeled wind speed for Puerto Rico. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the modeled wind speed to PBL schemes for onshore and offshore locations. The WRF output resulting from the 11 WRF experiments using different PBL parameterizations were evaluated against observations obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) as well as at hub height for a location for which measurements were available. A final model setup selected through the validation with observational data was used to produce 20 years of data with 3-km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. The WRF model output was post-processed to include wind profiles and basic atmospheric variables in a format that can be easily used for downstream modeling. The 20 years of wind resource data will be made available through NREL and support the estimation of wind energy development costs for the PR100 study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of Marginal Cost for PV Inverter Ancillary Services Considering Inverter Aging under Transactive Energy Framework

PV inverters can provide ancillary services while providing active power. Transactive energy system (TES) incentivizes PV inverter to provide ancillary services and compensates for the cost of additional power losses due to additional reactive power production. However, providing ancillary services can shorten the lifetime of the PV inverter since additional reactive power increases the thermal stress of the PV inverter. This paper theoretically derives the lifetime shortening effect of a PV inverter when providing ancillary services. Based on the lifetime estimation, an improved marginal cost curve for the PV inverter ancillary services is derived. The improved marginal cost quantitively describe the willingness of the PV inverter to provide ancillary services by the given active power production and the ambient temperature. The proposed model is validated by a simulation case study.

Liu, Yunting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗
DOE OSTI2022

RePOWERD: Restoration of Power Outage from Wide-area Severe Weather Disruptions

The purpose of the RePOWERD project is to develop a probabilistic and a simulation based power restoration forecasting model for tropical storms based on geographic utility service areas, impacts to energy infrastructures and transportation networks, time-varying customer outage number, crew information (i.e., crew size, crew staging requirements), and utility restoration plans. Energy infrastructure is a critical lifeline essential for the United States’ national and economic security. Like other critical infrastructures, this infrastructure is aging and is at a high risk of damages from extreme weather events. Based on the number of reported outages in EAGLE-I during 2020 and 2021, it is evident that the current energy infrastructure is not equipped to handle extreme event impacts and will contribute to significant outages. From a resilience perspective, it is essential to forecast restoration time in the event of a severe weather induced power outage to assist the US Department of Energy, emergency managers, and first responders with resource planning. This project contributes to this crucial need. This report details the models, that were developed in this pilot study, to determine the rate of restoration and estimated time of restoration (ETR) during tropical storm events within counties and utility service areas based on damage to energy infrastructures and total number of customers experiencing outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource

Multiple grid integration studies have examined the value of demand response, including from water heaters, to bulk power systems. Common shortcomings of these studies include physically unrealistic assumptions. For example, studies often assume that all electric water heater load can be shed for up to an hour to provide capacity or contingency service, that all electric water heater load is shiftable, and that round-trip efficiencies for shifting service are 100%. Another issue is that simply summing up estimates of individual water heaters' flexibility bounds, an attractive idea for constructing the MW-scale resources necessary for direct inclusion in grid investment and operational models, can result in significant overestimates of actual resource, because, e.g., a water heater with the ability to reduce load may not be able sustain the reduction for as long as the aggregate model suggests is possible. This presentation demonstrates the impact of estimating the flexibility of electric water heaters with physically realistic models suitable for grid service analysis. Electric water heater flexibility representations are constructed based on ResStock simulations of New England. Specifically, we examine contingency resource (related to capacity, shed, and contingency reserve services) and energy shifting resource from electric resistance and heat pump water heaters. Different estimation methods are compared; and the surrogate models' event responses are validated against events directly simulated in EnergyPlus. We also demonstrate the impact of using electric water heaters for contingency reserves and energy shifting in detailed models of possible future ISO New England power systems.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from the large scale structure two-point and three-point correlation functions

Surveys of cosmological large-scale structure (LSS) are sensitive to the presence of local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), and may be used to constrain models of inflation. Local PNG, characterized by f NL ⁠, the amplitude of the quadratic correction to the potential of a Gaussian random field, is traditionally measured from LSS two-point and three-point clustering via the power spectrum and bi-spectrum. We propose a framework to measure f NL using the configuration space two-point correlation function (2pcf) monopole and three-point correlation function (3pcf) monopole of survey tracers. Our model estimates the effect of the scale-dependent bias induced by the presence of PNG on the 2pcf and 3pcf from the clustering of simulated dark matter haloes. We describe how this effect may be scaled to an arbitrary tracer of the cosmological matter density. The 2pcf and 3pcf of this tracer are measured to constrain the value of f NL ⁠. In LSS surveys, the effect of imaging systematics on two-point statistics is often degenerate with the PNG signal. Our proposed model employs three-point statistics primarily to break this degeneracy. Using simulations of luminous red galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), we demonstrate the accuracy and constraining power of our method. Our forecast indicates the ability to constrain f NL to a precision of σf NL ≈ 22 with one year of DESI survey data, as well as the ability to constrain the imaging systematic weights in situ.

early Universe↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mechanistic model of a PWR-based nuclear power plant in response to external hazard-induced station blackout accidents

Natural hazard-induced nuclear accidents, such as the Fukushima Daiichi Accident that occurred in Japan in 2011, have significantly increased reactor safety studies in understanding nuclear power plant (NPP) responses to external hazard events such as earthquakes and floods. Natural hazards could cause the loss of offsite power in nuclear power plants, potentially leading to a Station Blackout (SBO) accident that significantly contributes to the overall risk of nuclear power plant accidents. Despite the fact that extensive research has been conducted on the station blackout accident for nuclear power plant, further understanding of these events is needed, particularly in the context of the dynamic nature of external hazards such as external flooding. This paper estimates the progression of station blackout events for a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) in response to external flooding events. The original RELAP5-3D model of the Westinghouse four-loop design pressurized water reactor was adopted and modified to simulate the external flood-induced station blackout accident, including the short-term and long-term station blackout scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of long-term station blackout, examining reactor operation times and analyzing key parameters over time, was also conducted in this work. The results of the analyses, especially the critical timing parameters of key event sequences, provide useful insights about the time during the external flooding event, which is important for plant operators to make timely decisions to prevent potential core damage. This paper represents significant progress toward developing an integrated risk assessment framework for further identifying and assessing the effects of the critical sources of uncertainties of nuclear power plant under external hazard-induced events.

Liu, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structured ionized winds shooting out from a quasar at relativistic speeds

Evidence indicates that supermassive black holes (SMBHs) exist at the centres of most galaxies. Their mass correlates with the galactic bulge mass, suggesting a coevolution with their host galaxies, most likely through powerful winds. X-ray observations have detected highly ionized winds outflowing at sub-relativistic speeds from the accretion disks around SMBHs. However, the limited spectral resolution of present X-ray instruments has left the physical structure and location of the winds poorly understood, hindering accurate estimates of their kinetic power. Here, in this study, the first X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) observation of the luminous quasar PDS 456 is reported. The high-resolution spectrometer Resolve aboard XRISM enabled the discovery of five discrete velocity components outflowing at 20–30% of the speed of light. This demonstrates that the wind structure is highly inhomogeneous, which probably consists of up to a million clumps. The mass outflow rate is estimated to be 60–300 solar masses per year, with the wind kinetic power exceeding the Eddington luminosity limit. Compared with the galaxy-scale outflows, the kinetic power is more than three orders of magnitude larger, whereas the momentum flux is ten times larger. These estimates disfavour both energy-driven and momentum-driven outflow models. This suggests that such wind activity occurs in less than 10% of the quasar phase and/or that its energy/momentum is not efficiently transferred to the galaxy-scale outflows owing to the clumpiness of the wind and the interstellar medium.

Audard, Marc [Univ. of Geneva, Versoix (Switzerlan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

PLC-based Impedance Measurement and Current Injection Response Analysis

Studying and mitigating the vulnerabilities of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) to electromagnetic pulse is important for the reliability of the power system. In this paper, an effective impedance measurement scheme is proposed to estimate the susceptibility of PLCs to an electromagnetic pulse. The equivalent non-uniform transmission line model is established to eliminate the impact of the fixture in the de-embedding process. Based on the measured impedance, the equivalent circuit is established to calculate the response of the device when subjected to the electromagnetic pulse. The voltage and current responses of different interfaces are compared utilizing the developed pulse Current Injection (CI) method. Finally, the impedance measurement scheme is verified through testing using three measuring instruments. And the CI simulation experiments reveal the characteristics and susceptibilities of different PLCs interfaces, indicating that some protection measures are required for the reliable operation of PLC.

Qiu, Wei↗
NASA NTRS1980

Coherence bandwidth loss in transionospheric radio propagation

In this report a theoretical model is developed that predicts the single-point, two-frequency coherence function for transionospheric radio waves. The theoretical model is compared to measured complex frequency correlation coefficients using data from the seven equispaced, phase-coherent UHF signals transmitted by the Wideband satellite. The theory and data are in excellent agreement. The theory is critically dependent upon the power-law index, and the frequency coherence data clearly favor the comparatively small spectral indices that have been consistently measured from the wideband satellite phase data. A model for estimating the pulse delay jitter induced by the coherence bandwidth loss is also developed and compared with the actual delay jitter observed on synthesized pulses obtained from the Wideband UFH comb. The results are in good agreement with the theory. The results presented in this report, which are based on an asymptotic theory, are compared with the more commonly used quadratic theory. The model developed and validated in this report can be used to predict the effects of coherence bandwidth loss in disturbed nuclear environments. Simple formulas for the resultant pulse delay jitter are derived that can be used in predictive codes.

Rino, C. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

OT Operational Anomaly Detection (OAD) T&D + DER

The growth of utility-scale renewable energy resources, distributed energy resources (DER), and transportation electrification has increased uncertainty and cybersecurity risks in power grids. The Purdue Enterprise Reference Architecture model which is widely adopted by the utility industry is now insufficient to protect the power grid against cyber-attacks. There is a need to identify what cybersecurity model is effective on Energy Management System (EMS), Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS), and DER Management System (DERMS) to address the fundamental cybersecurity challenges in the age of increasing renewable energy and DER share as well as consumer participation in the electric energy industry. The next generation of cybersecurity model for OT network should be able to detect inside attackers, mitigate the cybersecurity risks arising from the new grid participants including DER aggregators, electric vehicle owners, and behind-the-meter consumers outside the utility company, and develop the strategy to trust consumer measurement data. This panel will discuss the challenges and pathways for the development of an ensemble cybersecurity model based on predictive state estimation to detect cybersecurity anomalies in OT network including EMS, ADMS, and DERMS.

cybersecurity↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Experimental Radial Impurity Transport on Alcator C-Mod: Bayesian Parameter Estimation and Model Selection.

We present a fully Bayesian approach for the inference of radial profiles of impurity transport coefficients and compare its results to neoclassical, gyrofluid and gyrokinetic modeling. Using nested sampling, the Bayesian Impurity Transport InferencE (BITE) framework can handle complex parameter spaces with multiple possible solutions, offering great advantages in interpretative power and reliability with respect to previously demonstrated methods. BITE employs a forward model based on the pySTRAHL package, built on the success of the well-known STRAHL code [Dux, IPP Report, 2004], to simulate impurity transport in magnetically-confined plasmas. In this paper, we focus on calcium (Ca, Z=20) Laser Blow-Off injections into Alcator C-Mod plasmas. Multiple Ca atomic lines are diagnosed via high-resolution X-ray Imaging Crystal Spectroscopy and Vacuum Ultra-Violet measurements. We analyze a sawtoothing I-mode discharge for which neoclassical and turbulent (quasilinear and nonlinear) predictions are also obtained. We find good agreement in diffusion across the entire radial extent, while turbulent convection and density profile peaking are estimated to be larger in experiment than suggested by theory. Efforts and challenges associated with the inference of experimental pedestal impurity transport are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗