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At least 739 records · Page 41

exoALMA. XI. ALMA Observations and Hydrodynamic Models of LkCa 15: Implications for Planetary Mass Companions in the Dust Continuum Cavity

In the past decade, the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) has revealed a plethora of substructures in the disks surrounding young stars. These substructures have several proposed formation mechanisms, with one leading theory being the interaction between the disk and newly formed planets. In this Letter, we present high angular resolution ALMA observations of LkCa 15’s disk that reveal a striking difference in dust and CO emission morphology. The dust continuum emission shows a ringlike structure characterized by a dust-depleted inner region of ~40 au in radius. Conversely, the CO emission is radially smoother and shows no sign of gas depletion within the dust cavity. We compare the observations with models for the disk–planet interaction, including radiative transfer calculation in the dust and CO emission. This source is particularly interesting, as the presence of massive planets within the dust cavity has been suggested based on previous near-IR observations. We find that the level of CO emission observed within the dust cavity is inconsistent with the presence of planets more massive than Jupiter orbiting between 10 and 40 au. Instead, we argue that the LkCa 15 innermost dust cavity might be created either by a chain of low-mass planets or by other processes that do not require the presence of planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

What is data assimilation really solving, and how is the calculation actually done?

Data assimilation is a procedure in which observations are combined with models. The observations correct model errors on the one hand, and the models extrapolate the data information in space, time, and among different properties on the other. The result of assimilation is generally a more complete and more accurate description of the state of the modeled system than those obtained by either observations or model simulations alone. However, data assimilation is not a panacea for correcting every model error or for compensating all deficiencies of observations.

smoother↗

Spatial Scaling of Snow Observations and Microwave Emission Modeling During CLPX and Appropriate Satellite Sensor Resolution

Accurate estimates of snow water equivalent and other properties play an important role in weather, natural hazard, and hydrological forecasting and climate modeling over a range of scales in space and time. Remote sensing-derived estimates have traditionally been of the "snapshot" type, but techniques involving models with assimilation are also being explored. In both cases, forward emission models are useful to understand the observed passive microwave signatures and developing retrieval algorithms. However, mismatches between passive microwave sensor resolutions and the scales of processes controlling subpixel heterogeneity can affect the accuracy of the estimates. Improving the spatial resolution of new passive microwave satellite sensors is a major desire in order to (literally) resolve such subpixel heterogeneity, but limited spacecraft and mission resources impose severe constraints and tradeoffs. In order to maximize science return while mitigating risk for a satellite concept, it is essential to understand the scaling behavior of snow in terms of what the sensor sees (brightness temperature) as well as in terms of the actual variability of snow. NASA's Cold Land Processes Experiment-1 (CLPX-1: Colorado, 2002 and 2003) was designed to provide data to measure these scaling behaviors for varying snow conditions in areas with forested, alpine, and meadow/pasture land cover. We will use observations from CLPX-1 ground, airborne, and satellite passive microwave sensors to examine and evaluate the scaling behavior of observed and modeled brightness temperatures and observed and retrieved snow parameters across scales from meters to 10's of kilometers. The conclusions will provide direct examples of the appropriate spatial sampling scales of new sensors for snow remote sensing. The analyses will also illustrate the effects and spatial scales of the underlying phenomena (e.g., land cover) that control subpixel heterogeneity.

Kim, Edward J.↗

Cold air outbreak during MASEX - Lidar observations and boundary-layer model test

Lidar observations of boundary-layer development during a cold air outbreak over the Atlantic Ocean were examined. Very rapid rise rates were measured in the first 20 km off the coast. A large region of partial cloudiness was found to exist between the totally clear region near shore and the overcast region far from the coast. As the layer became overcast, rise rate of the boundary layer tripled, suggesting a direct relation between cloudiness and entrainment. Boundary-layer evolution was reasonably well simulated by a simple slab model. The model was not capable of predicting the area of partial cloudiness, nor the region of rapid entrainment near the coast.

Boers, R.↗

Observational constraints on model atmospheres for Uranus and Neptune

We have re-examined the visible and near-IR regions of the spectra of Uranus and Neptune to provide additional data for constructing atmospheric models. We find that a true continuum exists only at wavelengths below 4700 A, that the 6420 A absorption previously attributed to hydrogen is probably caused by methane, that there is no evidence for ammonia, ethylene or ethane absorptions in our spectra, and that the abundance of methane is probably much higher than previous estimates suggest. This last finding implies that the value of H/C in the atmospheres of both planets is much less than 1/10 the solar (or Jovian) value. Clear, Rayleigh-scattering model atmospheres are not compatible with the observations, but more work is needed to establish viable alternatives.

Encrenaz, T.↗

Quantifying the benefits of improved satellite remote-sensing observations for inverse modeling of NOx and NMVOC emissions

This study aims to demonstrate the benefits of using novel high spatiotemporal retrieval products from newer satellites for top-down emission estimates of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for the summer of 2019 over the contiguous United States. Recent satellite retrievals have not only advanced spatiotemporal resolution but also greatly reduced error and uncertainty due to reduced noise in the retrievals compared to spaceborne sensors launched in the past. We applied inverse modeling techniques using tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and formaldehyde (H-CHO) column retrieval products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in conjunction with the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling system (WRF-CMAQ). In order to provide a better representation of background chemical composition and avoid misalignment of emission adjustment, we applied monthly scaling factors for ozone (O 3 ) and CO boundary concentrations in addition to the inclusion of lightning and aviation emissions. Satellite-constrained NO x and NMVOCs posterior emissions showed a mitigated discrepancy between observed and modeled columns. The improvement in the model performance was greater when using TROPOMI, primarily benefiting from reduced errors/biases of the satellite retrievals that enabled us to explore corresponding changes in O 3 concentrations and production sensitivity regimes using the ratio of H-CHO and NO 2 .

remote sensing↗

Data and Code for: Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits

This repository contains the simulation outputs and processing scripts associated with the study of winter wheat traits across the United States, utilizing the Ecosys agroecosystem model. The dataset includes model results for both rainfed and irrigated winter wheat systems, supporting the findings presented in the manuscript titled "Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits." Data includes the original Ecosys simulation outputs (archived in .db format within the compressed .zip files) and extracted analysis data (stored in .pkl files for efficient processing). Python code for data processing and figure generation is provided in a Jupyter notebook. External Observational Datasets should refer to the following official repositories for the input and validation data used in this study. The eddy covariance data from the AmeriFlux network (https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/). Climate-forcing data of NLDAS-2 from NASA LDAS (https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/nldas-2-forcing-data). Soil data from the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO), available at (https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/gridded-soil-survey-geographic-gssurgo-database). Crop yields, planting and harvest dates from the USDA public databases (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/; https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/actuarialinformationbrowser/CropCriteria.aspx). Satellite-derived SLOPE GPP data from ORNL DAAC (https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=1786). Land use and crop progress information from the USDA Crop Data Layer and Crop Progress and Condition Gridded Layers (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and_Science/). The Ecosys model code is available online at https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS.

Wheat↗

An evaluation of meteorological data prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet observations and NAM model outputs

This study presents an example of how outputs of operational and readily-available mesoscale numerical models can be adapted to initialize dispersion calculations within the urban surface roughness layer. Three years of urban meteorological observations from central Washington, DC, are compared against forecast outputs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. NAM wind speed predictions underestimate the observations in light winds and overestimate the measurements in high winds. Average wind directions are consistent. However, an adjustment of the predicted direction of the plume by –20° is needed. The uncertainty associated with this adjustment is large in light NAM wind speed with no evident variation by season. The values of the standard deviation of the wind direction, σθ derived from NAM model outputs underestimate the observations by a small amount (about –1.5 to –2.5°). The results presented here indicate that mesoscale numerical model outputs can provide information adequate for dispersion calculations. However, levels of uncertainty associated with implementation of the suggested procedures increase with decreasing wind speed, causing considerable uncertainty in the implementation of adjustments as low wind speed conditions are approached. Results and recommendations reported here should not be extended to other numerical models or other cities without further testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A model of the Venus atmosphere from radio, radar, and occultation observations

A model is presented of the atmosphere and surface of Venus which best fits in the least-squares sense the available radio-brightness, radar cross-section, radio interferometric, and Mariner 5 and 10 radio occultation observations. The determinations of the radius of the planet obtained by others from radar time-delay measurements are included in the data set. The values of the adjusted parameters are: molar fraction of CO2 = 95 plus or minus 3%; fraction of combined nitrogen and argon = 5 plus or minus 3%; total atmospheric opacity at a wavelength of 1 cm = 19.4 plus or minus 1.3; mean radius of the surface = 6050.7 plus or minus 0.8 km; mean dielectric constant of the surface = 4.1 plus or minus 0.2, and percentage of total opacity due to chemical species other than CO2 = 45 plus or minus 12. The model temperature and pressure at the mean surface are 755 K and 91.4 atm, respectively.

Muhleman, D. O.↗

A theoretical model study of observed correlations between whistler mode waves and energetic electron precipitation events in the magnetosphere

A recently extended test particle computer model of the gyroresonance wave-particle interaction in the magnetosphere is applied to previously reported cases of observed correlations between whistler mode waves and ionospheric responses to particle precipitation. Three different ionospheric effects, namely, X-ray bursts, photoemissions, and D region perturbations, all correlated with VLF waves and believed to be caused by precipitated particles, are considered. The precipitation flux level, the pulse shape, and the associated time delays are computed for the parameters relevant to each case and are compared with values deduced from the data. The results demonstrate that the existing theoretical model can be useful for interpreting experimental results of this kind. Furthermore, the model results and observations, used together, provide a basis for additional diagnostics of the various parameters of the cold and energetic particle distributions in the magnetosphere. For example, when applied to the observed photoemission case (Helliwell et al., 1980) the model results imply that the trapped energetic particle distribution function at the time could be modeled as proportional to E exp -n/2 with n about 3.5 to 6, where E is the particle energy.

Chang, H. C.↗

Excessive Subsidence of the Southeast Atlantic Biomass Burning Aerosol Plume in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model

Global models struggle to accurately represent the meteorological environment over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean, as evidenced by the poor representation of persistent marine stratocumulus decks off the west coast of southern Africa. This complex regime also experiences significant seasonal biomass burning aerosol plumes that are transported from southern Africa over the Atlantic Ocean, which gradually descend via large scale subsidence and interact radiatively and microphysically with the cloudy environment of the region. In comparisons to space borne lidar and aircraft observations we find that the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model’s MERRA-2 aerosol and meteorology reanalysis shows that the aerosol plume descends too rapidly due to exaggerated large-scale downward vertical motion. This complicates the evaluation of aerosol properties utilizing aircraft observations collected throughout the ORACLES campaign as well as the model’s representation of the heating rate profiles due to the aerosol itself and its radiative interaction with the semi-permanent cloud deck typically located lower in altitude than the smoke. Two types of modeling experiments using GEOS will be presented to diagnose deficiencies in the model related to the excessive subsidence. Ensembles of free-running model simulations with and without radiatively active biomass burning aerosol will be used to quantify the impact of smoke on the atmospheric circulation. It will be demonstrated that heating within the aerosol layer results in self lofting through a reduction of the subsidence but did not alter the vertical placement or speed of the African Easterly jet. The amount of aerosol absorption required to eliminate the bias in the height of the aerosol plume through self-lofting will then be quantified. Finally, a second type of modeling experiment will be discussed in which the meteorology is constrained to observations. This will allow for biases in the height of the aerosol plume due to the general circulation model to be distinguished from biases that may be induced through the data assimilation process.

Allison Collow↗

Reinforcement learning for adaptive maintenance policy optimization under imperfect knowledge of the system degradation model and partial observability of system states

Maintenance policy optimization usually is faced with challenges that arise from an imperfect knowledge of system degradation models and from the partial observability of system degradation states. Here, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning method to address these two challenges for a class of maintenance problems with Markov degradation processes. The reinforcement learning approach consists of a learning component and a planning component. Using sequentially collected observations, at each step of decision-making the learning component improves the knowledge of system degradation in terms of the probability distributions of the transition rates based on sequential Bayesian inference. Using the updated transition rates, at each step of decision-making the maintenance policy optimization problem is then formulated as a partially observable Markov decision problem, and the planning component computes the optimal maintenance policy that maximizes the expected cumulative reward. The proposed method is illustrated using a numerical example with repair and inspection maintenance actions. The result shows that as more observations are collected, the learning component progressively learns the true system degradation process, and the planning component adjusts the optimal maintenance policy accordingly as well, which leads to increased reward.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dust distribution in the inner coma of Comet Halley - Comparison with models

Giotto observations of the inner coma of Comet Halley are analyzed, focusing on the dust distribution and the gas-dust interaction. Differences between the azimuthal and radial dust distributions are discussed. The profiles of dust jets suggest that gas emission is localized in the same source areas that give rise to dust. The observational results are compared with models of cometary dust and suggestions are made for improving the models to give better agreement with observations.

Reitsema, H. J.↗

Towards Soil Moisture Profile Estimation in the Root Zone Using L- and P-Band Radiometer Observations: A Coherent Modelling Approach

Precision irrigation management and crop water stress assessment rely on accurate estimation of root zone soil moisture. However, only the top 5cm soil moisture can be estimated using the two current passive microwave satellite missions, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), which operate at L-band (wavelength of ~21cm). Since the contributing depth of the soil to brightness temperature increases with observation wavelength, it is expected that a P-band (wavelength of ~40cm) radiometer could potentially provide soil moisture information from deeper layers of the soil profile. Moreover, by combining both L- and P- bands, it is hypothesized that the soil moisture profile can be estimated even beyond their individual observation depths. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential of combined L-band and P-band radiometer observations to estimate the soil moisture profile under flat bare soil using a stratified coherent forward model. Brightness temperature observations at L-band and P-band from a tower based experimental site across a dry (April 2019) and a wet (March 2020) period, covering different soil moisture profile shapes, were used in this study. Results from an initial synthetic study showed that the performance of a combined L-band and P-band approach was better than the performance of using either band individually, with an average depth over which reliable soil moisture profile information could be estimated (i.e. with a target root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.04 m3/m3) being 20cm for linear and 15cm for second-order polynomial functions. Other functions were also tested but found to have a poorer performance. Applying the method to the tower-based brightness temperature achieved an average estimation depth of 28cm (20cm) and 5cm (5cm) during the dry and wet periods respectively when using a second-order polynomial (linear) function. These findings highlight the opportunity of a satellite mission with L-band and P-band observations to accurately estimate the soil moisture profile to as deep as 30cm globally.

Foad Brakhasi↗

An investigation of resonant waves in a numerical model of an observed sudden stratospheric warming

A global quasi-linear time-dependent model that is able to represent the interaction of a single planetary Rossby wave with the zonal flow is used to investigate several questions concerning the role of resonance in the major stratospheric warming of February 1979. Special attention is given to the examination of the degree of dependence of the warming development on the phase speed of the wave and the initial mean flow. The results indicate that the preconditioning occurred early in the month, just after the minor sudden warming around February 5-7, and that a fairly broad range of eastward traveling phase speeds was capable of generating a warming. The model sensitivity tests indicate that the warming simulation has a weak dependence on the frequency of wave forcing and on the day used for initializing the basic state.

Smith, Anne K.↗

Photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 1990E in NGC 1035 - Observational constraints for models of type II supernovae

We present 126 photometric and 30 spectral observations of SN 1990E spanning from 12 days before B maximum to 600 days past discovery. These observations show that SN 1990E was of type II-P, displaying hydrogen in its spectrum, and the characteristic plateau in its light curve. SN 1990E is one of the few SNe II which has been well observed before maximum light, and we present evidence that this SN was discovered very soon after its explosion. In the earliest spectra we identify, for the first time, several N II lines. We present a new technique for measuring extinction to SNe II based on the evolution of absorption lines, and use this method to estimate the extinction to SN 1990E, A(V) = 1.5 +/- 0.3 mag. From our photometric data we have constructed a bolometric light curve for SN 1990E and show that, even at the earliest times, the bolometric luminosity was failing rapidly. We use the late-time bolometric light curve to show that SN 1990E trapped a majority of the gamma rays produced by the radioactive decay of Co-56, and estimate that SN 1990E ejected an amount of Ni-56 virtually identical to that of SN 1987A.

Schmidt, Brian P.↗

Comparative Study of Hydrology and Icemelt in Three Nepal River Basins Using the Glacio-Hydrological Degree-Day Model (GDM) and Observations From the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)

An assessment of the water supply and its seasonal and annual changes over the century in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is of increasing interest due to its potential impact on one-sixth of the global population. In order to understand the changing hydrology and snow and ice melt, we used remotely sensed Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) observations of glacier melt (GM) and a distributed and gridded Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) in three river basins: Tamor, Trishuli and Marsyangdi. The GDM-estimated contribution of snowmelt, icemelt, rainfall and baseflow in river flows is found to be most accurate in the Trishuli River basin, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between the estimated and observed discharges of 0.81 and volume differences of -0.5%, and reasonably accurate in the Tamor River basin, with NSE of 0.69 and volume difference of -7.51%. Similarly, NSE of 0.81 and volume difference of 4.64% in Marsyangdi River basin. We find strong similarities in the timing of glacier melting using the GDM and from observations from the ASCAT GM, determining the seasonal start of glacier melting to within 6 days on average. In all basins ASCAT GM observes melting at higher elevations relative to GDM, average of 5,328 m a.s.l. Systematic differences in glacier melting area determined by modeling and satellite observations indicate ASCAT may have suboptimal resolution, view geometry and/or polarimetry for delineating glacier melting at the process-scale in complex topography, especially in the ablation zone. This is the first step in examining the remote sensing products that could potentially be incorporated into hydrologic models to increase the accuracy of the hydrologic flow as well as the ability to estimate river discharge in other basins with limited data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗